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    AR

2YO Rating

Tomorrow runner's. Group 3 at Newmarket and a Listed race at Deauville sees Wesley Ward Twilight Gleaming the top horse in action. Again the Deauville ratings are not complete, just UK, Ireland and French pattern races included.

All 12 races in Top 3 today, 1 race for newcomers. Small fields a help for that! Another newcomer race tomorrow at Newmarket.
 

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Today's 2yo races attached.

The first Group 1 at the Curragh with Go Bears Go leading the figures.
 

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Races for Monday. So Ebro River improved again to take an excellent win. The form looks solid as those close up were expected.
 

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These are the top rated after today. Still have Ebro River below it's vanquished today. Armor leads the way. I am working on a new method, to see if there is any improvement. The current is very close to ideal but maybe a slight tweak will improve. Compared the ratings for winners to RPR and there are differences of around 25 for some races, usually early season. Around 17 is about average and a fair number around 10. I have no performance figures for the RP ratings on the day. My ratings being higher than RPR by those amounts.

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Performance so far - maintaining a loss around £50 on top rated but percentage of top 3 rated (best performance in last 6 runs is the base) has increased to 55% which is reassuring. Terrible though for 2nd rated.

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Well some carnage today with 6 newcomers winning in the 11 races - 5/4, 10/3, 20/1,25/1,33/1 and 100/1!! tough for ratings but they were rescued by a few top/joint top at 11/1 and 5.1 included.

Of the newcomers odd that a Tregoning/ Hamdam wins at 20/1 very easily and such a big price - Ribhi, weakish race but could be a decent horse.

Tomorrow attached.
 

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More carnage for ratings today as Newcomers won all over the show.

Tomorrow attached with a hot Listed race at Newbury, My 5th top rated Masekela and Seattle King (see topratings below) in competition.

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Sunday attached with new columns for Best Rating last 6 and Rank in Rating Order. No adjustment of ratings for recency of runs or how many runs since that performance. Just the actual rating for the race it was in.

The Deauville race does not contain full form for French runners, just Listed and Group races.
 

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Group 3 action at York with Imperial Fighter well clear on my ratings for a hot Maiden win.

Also a 22 runner handicap to end the day!
 

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Sandrine leads the way in tomorrow's Group 2 Lowther Stakes. Clearly my ratings for Maiden winners are a little high, though today's Nursery returned a higher rating for Flaming Rib than the Group race, need some work on improving the method.
 

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Lots of races Friday.
Albahr in a Listed race at Sandown and Berkshire Shadow and Fearby plus others lead the way in Gimcrack. Chipotle also sole 2yo representative in Nunthorpe, first meeting with older horses. The Racing Post like the WFA scale for 2yo but I suspect Chipotle is well short of the form required - not part of the attachment below.
 

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A whole host of racing tomorrow - Group races UK, Ireland and France (very limited ratings for those).
 

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Top rated after today's Group 1. Perfect Power makes 5th but beaten Armor retains top and Fearby with an as yet unrepeated effort is 2nd. Plus Flaming Rib for his nursery win is also a little high. I am still looking at alternatives but as yet still producing 55% winners in Top 3 rated - have automated the ranking order for races so that the decimals prevent equal rankings for positions - so always 1-2-3.
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Nice easy day today!! Runners for tomorrow, a little more action.

Results took a little hit recently but maintaining around 55% in top 3 and 11% or so loss to prated. Not included newcomer races or any of the French races. Otherwise all races with at least 1 runner since 29 April UK and Ireland. Just based on top rating in last 6 runs for each horse. Maybe better at 3 or 2 runs as some freak ratings in past. But then an 18/1 winner other day from 6 runs ago so hard to say. When I get time will look at different number of runs.
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