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2023 Flat - Thoughts/Guesses

PHS said:
Taken 1/4pt @ 5/1 Good Show 14:25 Hay and will look later, last book just went 9/2.
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Had a quick look at this race. Not too confident with the selection* but a lot of these look very exposed/high in the weights, so I'll let it run for 1/4pt as him and Cumul both have scope off their current marks.

* Looks like he has quite a high knee action, so not sure this ground will suit, plus he only won narrowly last time. Dalgleish doesn't have a great record with 4yo stepping up to Cl2.
 
PHS said:
Sat 10th Jun 2023
4.25 Beverley (9 runners)
Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Handicap
1m2f (2187 yards)
Class 5, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £5574
Avg OR : 64, Median OR : 65

Jewel Maker 1/4pt @7/1 (no BOG) and 1/4pt 3place cover bet @5/1
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Added Berry Edge 1/4pt TBP @ 2.44, though TBH, no-one seems to want this. I think the books went too short and it's got to a more realistic price now. Looks sure to stay up the hill, just depends whether it's close enough 2f out to get into the places.

So, I have 3 in this race now:D

1/2pt Jewel Maker
1/8pt Eklil
1/4pt Berry Edge TBP
 
Sat 17th Jun 2023
4.50 York (11 runners)
Ice Co Supporting Macmillan Handicap
1m1f (1937 yards +40 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £10468
Avg OR : 81, Median OR : 82

1/4pt 2 place Cover Pisanello, 1/8pt EW Whats The Story 6/1 5/1 4places

No write up as off for a walk. Pis won with something in hand pen run, WTS goes well here and this trip should suit well. Looks a weak race for the grade, so 2lb up no bother.
 
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PHS said:
Sat 17th Jun 2023
4.50 York (11 runners)
Ice Co Supporting Macmillan Handicap
1m1f (1937 yards +40 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £10468
Avg OR : 81, Median OR : 82

1/4pt 2 place Cover Pisanello, 1/8pt EW Whats The Story 6/1 4places

No write up as off for a walk. Pis won with something in hand pen run, WTS goes well here and this trip should suit well. Looks a weak race for the grade, so 2lb up no bother.
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Have a nice walk - hopefully a nice result to come home to
 
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Mon 19th Jun 2023
8.35 Windsor (7 runners)
CLPartners 25-Year Anniversary Handicap
1m (1791 yards +12 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Good, 4yo+, Win: £5653
Avg OR : 79, Median OR : 79

Grey Fox 1/4pt 8/1 2place Cover

Grey Fox is a hold up horse, not usually a good formula for 8.5f at Wdr, but he's 4-8 there and 3-4 after a 16-30 day absence.The 3 wins were all on Good to Firm ground (no rain forecast) and the loss was on Soft. He won twice last year off 74 and 75 and after 2 runs this year has dropped back to 76. Sean Levey rides and is 2-2.
 
Tue 20th Jun 2023
7.45 Beverley (9 runners)
Happy Birthday Robert Handicap
1m½f (1860 yards)
Class 5, Soft, 3yo+, Win: £4527
Avg OR : 72, Median OR : 72

Strongbowe 1/4pt @14 BF, 1/8pt @11/4 TBP

He's been running well since his FTO run this season and probably lucky to drop 1lb for finishing within 1L of Whats The Story last time. This race is -8 Ave OR v Last time. He won on Good to Soft at Carl last year, when TF rated the going as Soft. Possibly a big price today because he has the widest stall, but they often come stands side here on Soft going which negates the low draw advantage when they do.

1/16pt saver on Crown Princess at 15/2. She's generally dropping in class here and had been well backed.
 
Sat 24th Jun 2023
4.20 Ascot (7 runners)
Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
1m4f (2631 yards)
Group 2, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £141775

Taken a chance on Deauville Legend 1/4pt at 7/1

The mare seems a short price to win this. DL won the Great Volt last year and the winners of that race have a good record as 4yo's. I think he can prove better than his current rating of 116 and 4yo's have a good record in this race. Whether he can do it FTO is another matter. Maybe the King George is his main target. The same comment goes for Pyledriver, who goes well at this track. He has a similar pace scenario today as when he won the King George last year. I may add a 2 place bet on Pyledriver if there's any drift from the current price, as I think he'll go close.
 
Sat 24th Jun 2023
5.50 Lingfield (6 runners)
Helen Keaney 70th Birthday Handicap
1m2f (2200 yards)
Class 5, Good To Firm, 3yo+, Win: £3873
Avg OR : 71, Median OR : 70.5

Put some optimistic backs up on Moonlit Cloud this morning at 5 and 6.4. Both matched (it peaked at 7.6) and it's now 3.1. I'll leave half up and put an IR lay up on the other half at around Evens. 1/4pt at 5 and 1/4pt at 6.4.

The horse won at Yar LTO despite not getting a clear run and made up an impressive amount of ground in a short space of time.

I did the same with Fulfilled in the next race (asked 5) and that's now 2.02! Dropped in class, not the cleverest ride from Hayley LTO at Bev and was switched to get a run when she should have stayed and waited for a gap.
 
PHS said:
Put some optimistic backs up on Moonlit Cloud this morning at 5 and 6.4. Both matched (it peaked at 7.6) and it's now 3.1. I'll leave half up and put an IR lay up on the other half at around Evens. 1/4pt at 5 and 1/4pt at 6.4.
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Beaten by Eklil who I backed two runs ago:(.
 
Fri 30th Jun 2023
7.00 Newmarket (July) (11 runners)
Threat Bred At Ringfort Stud Handicap
1m (1760 yards)
Class 5, Good To Soft, 3yo+, Win: £4187
Avg OR : 69, Median OR : 70

Le Reveur 1/2pt @8/1 BOG and 1/4pt @2/1 TBP (123)

Le Reveur ran over C&D last Friday in an Apprentice race. The winner of that race is a Mare that's very consistent on Turf, her last 7 results being 1622211 and she was travelling very strongly 2f out. Le Reveur chased her up the hill and was only beaten 3/4L. He would have been a very easy winner without the Mare in the race, yet he runs off a 2lb lower mark and the same Appr takes an extra 2lb off compared to last week. With the claim, the horse races off the same weight as the lowest rated 3yo i.e. doesn't give any 3yo weight.

Le Reveur's last win came in June last year. He ran off 73 in an Ave OR 74 race. Tomorrow he runs off 63 in an Ave OR 69 race with the only Appr in the race taking off 5lb.

Of the others, the 3yo's Pearl Eye and Tamaluk (Burrows has a 41% strike rate in 3yo+ races in Jun/Jul) look the main dangers but both are inexperienced at this level and could just as easily be unplaced as win.
 
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Fri 30th Jun 2023
3.55 Doncaster (10 runners)
Its Racing Staff Week Handicap (Rnd)
1m (1753 yards)
Class 5, Good, 3yo+, Win: £4397
Avg OR : 67, Median OR : 67

Tiger Beetle 1/4pt 5/1 3 place Cover

Tiger Beetle drops from an Ave OR 81 race to Ave OR 67 and 2lb lower off 70

He was going well 2f to 1f out at York LTO but back pedalled quickly to finish 5th, either not staying the 9f trip or simply outclassed, with 84, 87 and 84 rated horses finishing in front of him, so stepping back to a mile looks worth a try. Atzeni is on board and he's very good on the round course at Don.

Of the two 3yo's in here, Beckett's Leadenhall would need to improve on what he's done so far (possible) and Bird Of Play is a habitual front-runner, which doesn't often work at this track.

Jack Daniel won comfortably last time and is respected with the trainer in excellent form. He's returning from a 55 day absence though and his win last time was on Soft ground and the race hasn't worked out too well.
 
Fri 21st Jul 2023
3.35 Newbury (12 runners)
Quickmove Handicap
1m4f (2640 yards)
Class 4, Good, 3yo+, Win: £6098
Avg OR : 79, Median OR : 80

Dasho Lennie 1/4pt @5/1 EW 4places

Beaten 8.5L by Fairbanks last time, but that one might be quite good (won NTO to complete a 3-timer). There were some decent yardsticks in that race and this track should suit him better.
 
Sat 22nd Jul 2023
3.40 Newmarket (July) (12 runners)
Lettergold Handicap
1m (1760 yards)
Class 2, Good, 3yo+, Win: £13500
Avg OR : 93, Median OR : 92

This looks like one of the strongest, most-competitive mile handicaps of the season.

Managed to get 1/4pt @15 on One Nation on a spike up to 16 on BF (11.5 currently).

One Nation has a similar profile to Appleby's Highbank that won last week at Newmarket. Both won here as 2yo's and both finished tailed off in the Britannia. One Nation actually beat Highbank twice in Meydan and finished just 1.25L behind Naval Power in the first of those races, a 9f Listed race.

Waiting on prices for another in this race.
 
PHS said:
Fri 1st Sep 2023
7.13 Salisbury (8 runners)
Pam Bruford Memorial Handicap
1m (1760 yards)
Class 5, Good To Firm, 3yo, Win: £4580
Avg OR : 74, Median OR : 74

Dream Of Mischief 1/4pt @5/1 BOG, 1/4pt bet credit @4/1 2 place cover bet.

DOM is a half-brother to Rebel Territory.

Looking at DOM's form post seasonal debut;

16/06/23
Goo 8f - 2nd of 7 when NCR from 2f out, beaten by Island Bandit who went on to win a much better race (Ave OR 91) at Sandown in Aug. The 3rd has also won since and the 4th has been beaten <2L on 4 occasions since. He was finishing strongly here and is only 4lb higher despite having won since.

27/06/23
Nby 7f - 9th of 10 the trip probably not in his favour.

17/07/23
Wdr 8f - 1st of 14 came from the rear down the outside and won quite comfortably.

03/08/23
Goo 84 - 13th of 17 had no chance from stall 20 and being by Oasis Dream, he may have been unsuited by the Soft ground anyway.

To my eyes, he's done little wrong and might prove to be a cut above these. You may get bigger than 5/1 tomorrow morning but I'm happy with that price and need to get on with stuff tomorrow rather than keep peeking at the prices.
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I'll count as 1/2pt lost if not in the first two, even though 1/4pt is a free bet.
 
PHS said:
Talking of which, I backed Pearl Eye 2 runs back when 3rd then it won LTO (not backed) and I've backed it again today - 17:15 Hay 1/4pt @4/1, 1/4pt TBP@11/10, so no doubt it will finish 4th. Only up 2lb from last time but he only just hung on. Hoping he's the type that only does just enough.
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