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2023 Flat - Thoughts/Guesses

P

PHS

Dam
Mon 8th May 2023
2.55 Ayr (11 runners)
Alices 70th Birthday Handicap
1m2f (2200 yards)
Class 4, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £5574
Avg OR : 75, Median OR : 77

First Impression 0.25pt Bet Credit Win and 0.25pt Win @9/2

Has the perfect draw (1) for his running style and has never run a bad race at the track. He was 4/14 in the Cl2 Kilkerran Cup (won it in 2020) last year having endured a very difficult passage and made amends 12 days later winning a Cl4 here with the same Avg/Median OR ratings as tomorrow. There's a lot of overnight rain due, so I'm expecting the going to change to something with Soft in the description, which suits well but won't suit a few of the others.

There are several Irish raiders and an unexposed Stoute to Dalgleish runner, so this is not a shoe in, but he does have plenty in his favour.
 
Wed 10th May 2023
3.15 Chester (5 runners)
Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3)
1m4½f (2703 yards)
Group 3, Good To Soft, 3yo, Win: £67224

O'Brien has an exemplary record in this race, but tomorrow's entry doesn't look anything special. His Dam struggled to get a mile and he was beaten 6L in France by the Gosden Fav in tomorrow's race. The latter's family don't look anything special either, and he isn't guaranteed to get this 1m4.5f trip.

Hadrianus was closing down the Fav close home in the Epsom Derby trial. His full brother, Platinum Warrior beat Latrobe in the 10f Galinule. Latrobe went on to win the Irish Derby a month later (his other full brother is just an average handicapper though).

Hadrianus 1/4pt 2 place Cover bet @4/1

.
 
Sat 13th May 2023
3.45 Ascot (7 runners)
Carey Group Handicap
1m2f (2192 yards)
Class 3, Soft, 3yo, Win: £10800
Avg OR : 82, Median OR : 83

Shahbaz 9/4 1/4pt 2 place Cover bet (actually used a Coral free bet by backing/laying one off for tiny stake loss)

Generally 3/1 to win and 7/4 w/o the Fav, so 9/4 Cover looks much better.

Shahbaz ran well for a long way on seasonal return in a good Newm Hcp. He appeared to blow up at the end of that race as if in need of the run. Of the trainers in this race, Fellowes has by far the best strike rate with 3yo's 2TO (20%).

There was a lot to like about Westerton's re-appearance at Donc. He was beaten 5L by the winner that day, who looked very good, and was travelling better than most 2f out. Alan King's 3yo's are usually ready to go FTO though, so we may not see a lot of improvement, but he certainly rates the main danger.
 
Sun 14th May 2023
5.15 Hamilton (13 runners)
Sky Bet Sunday Series Mile Handicap
1m½f (1828 yards)
Class 3, Good To Soft, 4yo+, Win: £15462
Avg OR : 80, Median OR : 80.5

Whats The Story 1/4pt @10/1 (now 8/1 since I started typing)

Whats The Story last raced on UK Turf off 96 in a Median OR 93 race (Oct 2022). After an unsuccesful campaign in Bahrain, his mark has dropped to 85. If fit after a 65 day break, he could be well treated here if he hasn't regressed at 9 years of age. A low draw is quite a significant factor over this C&D, especially for a prominent racer, so stall 4 here is a positive.

His 3rd behind King of Conquest in Bahrain now looks a good deal better than it did when the RP gave him a 90 RPR, after that one pulled well clear with Saga to win the Suffolk Handicap last week.

Connor Beasley gets the ride. I don't know why he stopped riding for Dalgleish, but when he did, he had 7 winners from 28 rides in Hcps at Hamilton in 2017/2018, that's a 28% strike rate.

I also like Perseverants, who won a Listed race in France and could rate higher than he has so far for Scott Dixon.
 
Tue 16th May 2023
4.45 Beverley (12 runners)
Clearanswer Call Centres Handicap
1m2f (2187 yards)
Class 5, Good To Soft, 3yo, Win: £4527
Avg OR : 71, Median OR : 72

Orchestra 6.41/1 4 place Cover Bet via 9/1 EW

Posted 11:38 cut to 8/1 at 11:40

Orchestra was 2nd over C&D last time and renews rivalry with the winner, Roll It In Glitter. He's 2lb better off for 0.75L but more importantly, the winner who had an easy time up front now comes out of stall 9.

Orchestra did well to win a Cl5 Nursery at Ponte last year having been drawn out wide in stall 12 of 15. He beat Coverdale that day and that horse is now 2/2 this year and will now be rated at least 12lb higher.

Though he has regressed from being a top trainer (maybe never was) Ed Dunlop still has a good record when raiding north with 3yo's inc 3-6-8 at Bev in Apr/May since 2017.

Gosden runs one and no one is in better form than Ed Bethell and both their horses rate as dangers.
 
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19:00 Wet - Outsmart 1/8pt EW @25/1 4 places

I was waiting for this to go 33/1 (from 28/1) so I could take the likely 28/1 EW Extra 5 places, then the 11/4 Fav came out, so I was happy enough to take 25/1 BOG and 4 places.

Outsmart ran stinkers LTO in 2022 and FTO (on the AW) this April, hence the 25/1 on offer. Before that he'd been very consistent up to May 2022, never out of the first 3 in his first 7 runs.

He ran well to be 1L 2nd to Haunted Dream 2TO as a 3yo over this trip before confirming it was good form by winning over the same C&D NTO. A few poor runs ensued until he got back on track with a decent 3/4L 2nd last Aug back over an extended mile. Haunted Dream is now rated 96, 21lbs higher than when he beat the selection at levels.

Outsmart is back down to 1lb above his last winning mark and Ryan Sexton takes a further 3lb off.It's a very competive race, but I'm hopeful he should be somewhere close at the finish.
 
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Mon 22nd May 2023
7.35 Windsor (10 runners)
Download Fitzdares For Free Race
Streaming Handicap
1m3½f (2519 yards +9 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £5653
Avg OR : 73, Median OR : 73

0.5pt Saligo Bay 11/2, 0.18pt (saver) Tessy Lad 11/2

I've backed this because, in my 'notebook' it was a big eyecatcher after running here over 10f last back end;

"Ex Charlton horse, he made up a lot of ground from 4f out easily running the fastest last 4 furlongs, big eyecatcher"

but pete pete has also made a very good case for it on his Av OR v Last race OR thread.

As the prices show though, this is a very competitive race in which a case can be made for several.

Tessy Lad struck me as being a big 3yo and he could be better this year, but I doubt Hughes will have this ready FTO....but why book Buick if he's not? So, I've had a saver on that one.
 
I imagine the above going public started the price contraction from 7.4 to now 5.5 on BF. The early warning sign was B365 cutting from 11/2 to 9/2 (they opened shortest last night); it was still 7.4 on BF at that point.

Edit: 7/2 now I see!
 
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