2023 Flat - Thoughts/Guesses
- Thread starter PHS
- Start date
Tue 23rd May 2023
3.53 Brighton (7 runners)
John Price Handicap
1m4f (2618 yards)
Class 5, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £4606
Avg OR : 67, Median OR : 67
Al Azhar
Going back to 4th May, I wrote;
and T tacker replied;
I replied;
So, the same applies today, except he's now dropped into a Cl5 (Cl4 last time in which the 2nd ran a top race at York last week). What could possibly go wrong
.
3.53 Brighton (7 runners)
John Price Handicap
1m4f (2618 yards)
Class 5, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £4606
Avg OR : 67, Median OR : 67
Al Azhar
Going back to 4th May, I wrote;
and T tacker replied;
I replied;
So, the same applies today, except he's now dropped into a Cl5 (Cl4 last time in which the 2nd ran a top race at York last week). What could possibly go wrong
.They went no gallop and the winner was in a better position, hence you have to question Dane O'Neill's 1-50 record for Treg.
The winner, LATER DARLING, appeared to show improved form compared with its previous run at Salisbury on 4 May 2023 where the gelding finished ninth of 9 runners, beaten 30 lengths. Amanda Perrett’s representative’s explanation that LATER DARLING had benefitted from racing with cover and had settled better on this occasion, was noted. The gelding was routine tested.
Last edited:
Two for tomorrow where I've not got time to look at the races properly but stand out for different reasons;
14:00 Yar - Alpha King 1/4pt @ 11/2
FTO but ran well FTO at this track last year when closing fast on the winner Pledge Of Honour who had 10-15lb in hand that day.
Confirmed that was no fluke when winning a Cl5 by 6L back here. He drops into a Cl6 and is 6lb lower than for that Cl5 win over C&D.
16:00 Ayr - Ventura Rascal 1/4pt @ 12/1 BOG
2TO after Wind Surgery. He's drawn 7 but has a great record of getting over from a wide draw to lead and win. Archie Watson's Fav, Star Shield and the Goldie bandwagon all look too short/overbet to me.
14:00 Yar - Alpha King 1/4pt @ 11/2
FTO but ran well FTO at this track last year when closing fast on the winner Pledge Of Honour who had 10-15lb in hand that day.
Confirmed that was no fluke when winning a Cl5 by 6L back here. He drops into a Cl6 and is 6lb lower than for that Cl5 win over C&D.
16:00 Ayr - Ventura Rascal 1/4pt @ 12/1 BOG
2TO after Wind Surgery. He's drawn 7 but has a great record of getting over from a wide draw to lead and win. Archie Watson's Fav, Star Shield and the Goldie bandwagon all look too short/overbet to me.
Sat 27th May 2023
5.45 Chester (10 runners)
Roman Day Community Zone Handicap
1m4½f (2703 yards +58 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Good, 3yo+, Win: £6185
Avg OR : 81, Median OR : 82
Taking on the front two here. Greystoke was the beneficiary of a slowly run race. Johnston's 3yo don't do as well as the market is expecting over this C&D early season.
The Nu Form Way 11 & 2 placesyet to match 5.1 1/4pt in total
Wynter Wildes 21 & 3placesyet to match 4/1 1/4pt in total
Both have run well here before, not least when they were 1st and 3rd here last July. The former is only 4lb higher despite having already won this season. The latter, I hope will show improvement as a 4yo.
5.45 Chester (10 runners)
Roman Day Community Zone Handicap
1m4½f (2703 yards +58 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Good, 3yo+, Win: £6185
Avg OR : 81, Median OR : 82
Taking on the front two here. Greystoke was the beneficiary of a slowly run race. Johnston's 3yo don't do as well as the market is expecting over this C&D early season.
The Nu Form Way 11 & 2 places
Wynter Wildes 21 & 3places
Both have run well here before, not least when they were 1st and 3rd here last July. The former is only 4lb higher despite having already won this season. The latter, I hope will show improvement as a 4yo.
Last edited:
The Nu Form Way won fairly easily
, pretty much in the same fashion as last year when the ground was very different.
WW tried to go with the leader and paid for it.
BFSP was 13.5 and 5.84 2 places. Amazing how well BFSP often works out, would've made a big difference on my stake 2.5pts.
, pretty much in the same fashion as last year when the ground was very different.WW tried to go with the leader and paid for it.
BFSP was 13.5 and 5.84 2 places. Amazing how well BFSP often works out, would've made a big difference on my stake 2.5pts.
Last edited:
Eklil (18:10 Ling) -9 1/2pt @11/2 Bet Boost
...has the best single piece of form when 3rd of 10 in a £25k Racing League race at Wdr last year. That race was an Ave OR 83. Today runs off a 4lb lower mark in an Ave OR 73. It's his first run of the season but Rae Guest does well with FTO horses. The main concern is the trainer's form, with no winners so far and 0-28 in the last 90 days. He hasn't had many Flat runners though and the first winner has to come somewhere.
...has the best single piece of form when 3rd of 10 in a £25k Racing League race at Wdr last year. That race was an Ave OR 83. Today runs off a 4lb lower mark in an Ave OR 73. It's his first run of the season but Rae Guest does well with FTO horses. The main concern is the trainer's form, with no winners so far and 0-28 in the last 90 days. He hasn't had many Flat runners though and the first winner has to come somewhere.
20:50 Don
Lexington Knight 1/2pt@5/2 2 place cover
I thought Lexington Knight (-5) ran a good race behind Saligo Bay (btn 3/4L) the other day, producing a 79 RPR, his highest on Turf since his 3yo days. His highest last year was 78 at this track (10f). He ran 85 RPR when 2nd in a 0-100 to Boltaway on his final 3yo start, which was his first run at this trip.
-6 Mythical has no form at this trip. Several of these are coming back from an absence. Bookmark looks the main danger.
Lexington Knight 1/2pt@5/2 2 place cover
I thought Lexington Knight (-5) ran a good race behind Saligo Bay (btn 3/4L) the other day, producing a 79 RPR, his highest on Turf since his 3yo days. His highest last year was 78 at this track (10f). He ran 85 RPR when 2nd in a 0-100 to Boltaway on his final 3yo start, which was his first run at this trip.
-6 Mythical has no form at this trip. Several of these are coming back from an absence. Bookmark looks the main danger.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Good luck
P
PHS . Lexington Knight has a good chance, he should be thereabouts. I see the well handicapped Sword Beach as a danger, well beaten on only previous visit to Doncaster for Eve Johnson Houghton but that was in class 2 from mark of 86. Not won for a long time on flat but Alan King has got his mark down to 69 and he could be dangerous from it. I will do a small forecast with yours for a bit of fun.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Mon 5th Jun 2023
7.45 Windsor (9 runners)
Download Fitzdares For Free Race
Streaming Handicap
1m2f (2200 yards +28 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £5653
Avg OR : 79, Median OR : 80
Youthful King 1/2pt@10/1
I backed this a couple of times last season. TBH the two 3yo races he won haven't worked out too well and he had the run of the race in both, but the same could apply tomorrow. The race he was 3rd in at Goodwood has worked out much better. He's the only habitual front-runner in the race and will be dangerous if let loose on the lead. He's been well-backed tonight; I managed to see the price collapsing with the other books soon enough to get on with 365.
Wisper has done nothing but improve. She came from a long way back when 1st and 2nd over C&D last year but she was off 74 and 79 then with Aidan Keeley taking a further 5lb off; tomorrow she's 13lb higher and no 5lb claim off. After her FTO win at Brighton, you would have expected a better run than 6/19 (btn 6.7L) at a track which should have suited her hold-up style, so maybe that 87 mark has caught up with her. Youthful King (2lb better off) was taken on for the lead in that race and should strip fitter tomorrow.
TIMEFORM say: Dual winner last season, including over C&D and shaped as if he'd come on for his reappearance at Newbury recently, so can't be dismissed.
Silver Gunn (-6) was a 3L 3rd of 7 in a much stronger race than this but tends to pull hard when racing off the pace, so a likely slow pace will be against him tomorrow. He's probably the most likely winner though, if Youthful King doesn't win.
7.45 Windsor (9 runners)
Download Fitzdares For Free Race
Streaming Handicap
1m2f (2200 yards +28 yards rails adjustment)
Class 4, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £5653
Avg OR : 79, Median OR : 80
Youthful King 1/2pt@10/1
I backed this a couple of times last season. TBH the two 3yo races he won haven't worked out too well and he had the run of the race in both, but the same could apply tomorrow. The race he was 3rd in at Goodwood has worked out much better. He's the only habitual front-runner in the race and will be dangerous if let loose on the lead. He's been well-backed tonight; I managed to see the price collapsing with the other books soon enough to get on with 365.
Wisper has done nothing but improve. She came from a long way back when 1st and 2nd over C&D last year but she was off 74 and 79 then with Aidan Keeley taking a further 5lb off; tomorrow she's 13lb higher and no 5lb claim off. After her FTO win at Brighton, you would have expected a better run than 6/19 (btn 6.7L) at a track which should have suited her hold-up style, so maybe that 87 mark has caught up with her. Youthful King (2lb better off) was taken on for the lead in that race and should strip fitter tomorrow.
TIMEFORM say: Dual winner last season, including over C&D and shaped as if he'd come on for his reappearance at Newbury recently, so can't be dismissed.
Silver Gunn (-6) was a 3L 3rd of 7 in a much stronger race than this but tends to pull hard when racing off the pace, so a likely slow pace will be against him tomorrow. He's probably the most likely winner though, if Youthful King doesn't win.
Sat 10th Jun 2023
4.25 Beverley (9 runners)
Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Handicap
1m2f (2187 yards)
Class 5, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £5574
Avg OR : 64, Median OR : 65
Jewel Maker 1/4pt @7/1 (no BOG) and 1/4pt 3place cover bet @5/1
Drops from a Median OR 80 to a Median OR 65 tomorrow, so I don't need to say this looks much easier (oops!). David Allan got into all sorts of trouble trying to go up the inside at Redcar last time. That was only the first time he'd ridden the horse since I and they realised he needs 9-10f, not a mile. The only doubts here (for a horse best held up) are a) whether the pace will be strong enough; we know Bit Of A Quirke will go to the front and put the anchors on but will Kalahari Prince take him on for the lead and give us a decent pace, and b) will the horse stay up the hill, having so far won over 10f only on Flat tracks.
If there's one horse that looks guaranteed to stay up the hill, it's Berry Edge, who has lacked the pace to get into winning positions on flat tracks, but he's not much of a price with Oisin booked plus this represents a step up in class.
I'll probably have another 1/4pt on another one, hopefully at a better price tomorrow.
Edit: Just made it in time, the Cover bet, was 5/1 is now 7/2 and 6/1 2 place cover is now 4/1.
Edit: Just to add, Easterby has had 2 handicap winners today (Allan on both) to give him 5 from 19+todays runners, say 6 = 5-25 in the last 8 days, much improved form, without which I probably wouldn't have done this bet, because he's been rank bad up to this point.
4.25 Beverley (9 runners)
Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Handicap
1m2f (2187 yards)
Class 5, Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £5574
Avg OR : 64, Median OR : 65
Jewel Maker 1/4pt @7/1 (no BOG) and 1/4pt 3place cover bet @5/1
Drops from a Median OR 80 to a Median OR 65 tomorrow, so I don't need to say this looks much easier (oops!). David Allan got into all sorts of trouble trying to go up the inside at Redcar last time. That was only the first time he'd ridden the horse since I and they realised he needs 9-10f, not a mile. The only doubts here (for a horse best held up) are a) whether the pace will be strong enough; we know Bit Of A Quirke will go to the front and put the anchors on but will Kalahari Prince take him on for the lead and give us a decent pace, and b) will the horse stay up the hill, having so far won over 10f only on Flat tracks.
If there's one horse that looks guaranteed to stay up the hill, it's Berry Edge, who has lacked the pace to get into winning positions on flat tracks, but he's not much of a price with Oisin booked plus this represents a step up in class.
I'll probably have another 1/4pt on another one, hopefully at a better price tomorrow.
Edit: Just made it in time, the Cover bet, was 5/1 is now 7/2 and 6/1 2 place cover is now 4/1.
Edit: Just to add, Easterby has had 2 handicap winners today (Allan on both) to give him 5 from 19+todays runners, say 6 = 5-25 in the last 8 days, much improved form, without which I probably wouldn't have done this bet, because he's been rank bad up to this point.
Last edited: