2022 Flat guesses
- Thread starter PHS
- Start date
I was always doing doubles today, wanted Myboymax in them but only had it with Stoute's loser at 100/30 and now it's 9/4 so will leave it at that price.
Instead, I've played up the Poetic return on Frog And Toad 6.4 and 2.02 TBP (18:30 Pon). Ran very well when 2nd in a Don hcp last year, then it all went wrong. No surprise that since Wind Surgery he's really turned a corner and still looks feasibly handicapped off 72 here.
For tomorrow;
It's a deep race but I thought He's A Gentleman (13:10 Hay) ran very well at Don last time and Hugo Palmer has stated;
10/1 taken.
It's a deep race but I thought He's A Gentleman (13:10 Hay) ran very well at Don last time and Hugo Palmer has stated;
He needed his comeback run and it looked like he wanted a step up in trip. He ran at Doncaster on Saturday and he might have still needed that run but he should be able to go one better soon.
10/1 taken.
Sal 19:45
Rampoldi Plan at 7.4 on BF (now 6.2 or 4/1) matched about an hr ago.
Here's my notebook comment from last time at Nott;
Held up off a steady pace, strongly challenged the prominently ridden winner iff, heavily disadvantaged at this pace favouring track.
Trainer is in great overall form with a 46% strike rate (6-13) in both codes in the past 7 days but his 3yo's have been a bit disappointing; only 1-11 in the last 30 days. Also, there's no great pace on again here, but the track does give hold-up types a better chance.
Rampoldi Plan at 7.4 on BF (now 6.2 or 4/1) matched about an hr ago.
Here's my notebook comment from last time at Nott;
Held up off a steady pace, strongly challenged the prominently ridden winner iff, heavily disadvantaged at this pace favouring track.
Trainer is in great overall form with a 46% strike rate (6-13) in both codes in the past 7 days but his 3yo's have been a bit disappointing; only 1-11 in the last 30 days. Also, there's no great pace on again here, but the track does give hold-up types a better chance.
Frontrunner
Stallion
.Ayr 19:00 - Tommy G 9/2
Tilsitt was all dressed up with nowhere to go when Tommy G won at Muss 9 days ago and is the one there's a bit of money for. However, he goes to Ayr tomorrow off his highest ever mark and has only won there once in 8 attempts. He's also held by Tommy G on two separate pieces of form. On the form of Tilsitt's last race there, Tommy G should also hold Cosmos Raj at the weights. There's a lot of pace on in this race. That will suit Tommy G down to the ground. I'd have him as a 3/1 shot.
Edit: Mulrennan is 5-16 (31%) for Goldie in the last 30 days.
Tilsitt was all dressed up with nowhere to go when Tommy G won at Muss 9 days ago and is the one there's a bit of money for. However, he goes to Ayr tomorrow off his highest ever mark and has only won there once in 8 attempts. He's also held by Tommy G on two separate pieces of form. On the form of Tilsitt's last race there, Tommy G should also hold Cosmos Raj at the weights. There's a lot of pace on in this race. That will suit Tommy G down to the ground. I'd have him as a 3/1 shot.
Edit: Mulrennan is 5-16 (31%) for Goldie in the last 30 days.
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Tried to get on Carp Kid (13:15) EW Extra earlier. It was 10/1 in the standard market and was showing 9.5 (8.5/1) EW Extra 123. Clicked on it and 9.25 came up. Refreshed and still showing 9.5 but still coming up 9.25, so left it. The rest is history, now 7/1 outright. Will be gutted if this wins.
I've taken 8/1 (no BOG) Legende Dart (17:29 Yar)
Legende Dart won a Cl4 at ChC beating the 81 rated Dutch Decoy (narrowly). 6f far too short last time. He drops to a Cl6 on turf tomorrow. I think the track should suit and the likely decent pace is what he needs. B365 are 5/1. Howarth is down to a 5lb claim now, but still value.
Legende Dart won a Cl4 at ChC beating the 81 rated Dutch Decoy (narrowly). 6f far too short last time. He drops to a Cl6 on turf tomorrow. I think the track should suit and the likely decent pace is what he needs. B365 are 5/1. Howarth is down to a 5lb claim now, but still value.
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19:25 Hay - 1 mile £8.1k 4yo+ Hcp
Stately Home, 5/1 boosted from 4/1 is up against Lightening Company who has form in better races than the selection. LC won his first Flat Turf handicap at Redcar in April, a Class 3 race that has worked out very well indeed with 2nd Hortzadar, 3rd Il Bandito and 4th Boardman all going on to win at NTO. However the first 3 were all drawn low, a distinct advantage in large fields at Redcar when the going is Soft, so maybe LC had plenty in his favour that day.
Ex-Irish Stately Home won his first UK Turf handicap at Ponte in April on Soft ground. What stood out about that win was that he met interference on at least two occasions in the last 2f but had the racecraft to still go on and win, looking like a well handicapped horse. The concern is, that race wasn't up to much, but that's why he's on offer at 5/1 in a five runner race.
This likely steadily run race on a flat track looks in his favour.
Stately Home, 5/1 boosted from 4/1 is up against Lightening Company who has form in better races than the selection. LC won his first Flat Turf handicap at Redcar in April, a Class 3 race that has worked out very well indeed with 2nd Hortzadar, 3rd Il Bandito and 4th Boardman all going on to win at NTO. However the first 3 were all drawn low, a distinct advantage in large fields at Redcar when the going is Soft, so maybe LC had plenty in his favour that day.
Ex-Irish Stately Home won his first UK Turf handicap at Ponte in April on Soft ground. What stood out about that win was that he met interference on at least two occasions in the last 2f but had the racecraft to still go on and win, looking like a well handicapped horse. The concern is, that race wasn't up to much, but that's why he's on offer at 5/1 in a five runner race.
This likely steadily run race on a flat track looks in his favour.