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2021 Flat Selections

PHS

Filly
17/04/21

18:15 Not - Jean Baptiste 0.25pt 9/2 EW with a Boost (Boost only applies to Win stake)

I don't usually do these sort of bets, but as it's near 3pm and we still have the dead 8, I thought it worthwhile at 0.8/1 for the place with the possibility of BOG as well.

My initial interest in this race was because the notebooked Copper And Five was running, and I had it as a surefire future winner after it's run at Ayr last year. Looking through the race though, it looks to have a tough task on its hands, up in class (5 to 4) and at a track that suits prominent racers more than hold up types; the trainer has a poor record going up from Cl5 to Cl4 with horses unplaced LTO (4.6% and 16.3% place in 4yo+ Hcps).

Jean Baptiste was running on strongly at the finish 8 days ago at Lei but was just mugged close home by the Stoute horse after the handicapper dropped the latter a generous 6lb since his last run. Not many horses switching to Boughey (in his short career) don't win in their first 3 runs and I feel, barring trouble in running, he should go very close tonight. Mark Crehan takes off 5lb.
 

PHS

Filly
Went on a short shopping trip and didn't get back until 5 mins before the race. Didn't see there'd been a non-runner so down to 2 places (best laid plans and all that), so watched it thinking 3rd would be OK, so nice that he managed to stay ahead of Copper & Five for 2nd. 5/1 BOG and 1/4 odds a bonus, so actually made a bit on the race. Think that race confirmed what I said about the track suiting prominent racers, so Copper & Five one to keep onside at a more suitable track.
 

PHS

Filly
I've done Molinari 11/2 EW Extra 123 1/4 odds (7 run) 16:00 Cat

Ran very well on seasonal debut for new trainer who has something like a 1-40 record FTO, so if he can improve 2TO he might have a chance of overhauling the hot fav here. Molinari ran very well in a strong Ascot hcp won by Gosden's Tenbury Wells, so he must have a chance if Todhunter can get him back to that level.

Edit: 0.25pt ew
 
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Leodis

Yearling
14:50 cat - Queen's Sargent
Has suitable conditions today and a good formline coming into this race. Jockey has won once from eight attempts, and failed to finish within 3 lengths in the other 7, so a slight negative.
 

Leodis

Yearling
Molinari finished tired; poor training performance (maybe)!
It normally has 2 to three weeks between races. It may be more to do with stamina. The sir/dam sire rating is 1.37 going into this race. It's usually best to have one around 0.80 to 1.20 to get the distance
 

PHS

Filly
16:30 Sal - Brasca 0.25pt 100/30 with a Boost

Looked at this last night with it having a fitness edge over most of its rivals, but at 7/4 I didn't think it worth a bet but now at 10/3, I couldn't resist having a bit on . The fav's form is superior but Brasca has scope, having been off for nearly 2 years and I find Ed Walker's horses are often overestimated by the market. Beckett has an excellent record 2TO and Brasca ran a very respectable time when 2nd at Wolves on only his first run back.
 

markfinn

Sire
16:30 Sal - Brasca 0.25pt 100/30 with a Boost

Looked at this last night with it having a fitness edge over most of its rivals, but at 7/4 I didn't think it worth a bet but now at 10/3, I couldn't resist having a bit on . The fav's form is superior but Brasca has scope, having been off for nearly 2 years and I find Ed Walker's horses are often overestimated by the market. Beckett has an excellent record 2TO and Brasca ran a very respectable time when 2nd at Wolves on only his first run back.
well done 1619366345594.png
 

PHS

Filly
Two at Muss that have gone too big for me not to have a bet;

16:35 Dreamseller 0.25pt 100/30 BOG with a Boost
C&D winner. Like a few of Easterby's, this one ran well FTO, looking like he was just lacking a touch for fitness. Dennis on board for Allan could be the reason for the drift. Most of Dennis's rides at Mus have been for Goldie, which might explain why he has a poor strike rate there.

17:05 Propriety 0.25pt 4.5 BF (11/4 best price)
A Galileo filly out of a Listed mare, she ran a cracker FTO for O'Meara. She opened 9/2 and drifted to an SP of 14/1 that day, suggesting she wasn't fancied, so there's a possibility she might have improved for that first run. Mutamaded has been running well off a career low mark (3lb well in today) and was only caught close home by a big improver in Wise Eagle but he'd had a run when meeting Propriety last time, so she might be able to hold him off again.
 

PHS

Filly
16:35 Dreamseller 0.25pt 100/30 BOG with a Boost
C&D winner. Like a few of Easterby's, this one ran well FTO, looking like he was just lacking a touch for fitness. Dennis on board for Allan could be the reason for the drift. Most of Dennis's rides at Mus have been for Goldie, which might explain why he has a poor strike rate there.
The way that ran you'd think he hasn't been fed for two days. Immediately pushed along out of the stalls and backpedalling 2f out.
 

PHS

Filly
17:05 Propriety 0.25pt 4.5 BF (11/4 best price)
A Galileo filly out of a Listed mare, she ran a cracker FTO for O'Meara. She opened 9/2 and drifted to an SP of 14/1 that day, suggesting she wasn't fancied, so there's a possibility she might have improved for that first run. Mutamaded has been running well off a career low mark (3lb well in today) and was only caught close home by a big improver in Wise Eagle but he'd had a run when meeting Propriety last time, so she might be able to hold him off again.
How easy! 4.5 taken, SP looks like being 9/2, Oh dear!

Laid Muta at Evens IR as well; it ran like Dreamseller😄.

Edit: Yep, 9/2. A frankly unbelievable price (considering its performance last time). 6.37 BFSP.
 
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pete

Dam
keep at it P PHS , once you are established as a regular poster you will see that there is much more going on on the forums than you may have access to initially :) Nice hit with Propriety
 

PHS

Filly
No time to update Apr results, but will use this space to do so later.

Just noticed Edit facility lapses, so this idea won't work.
 
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