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2021 Flat Selections

PHS

Filly
15/05/21
14:10 Thi - Cl5 8f

2 main bets and 2 savers:lolsign:. Staking's a bit complicated.

Little Jo - 0.25pt minus a bit for savers @ 11/1 BOG
Was a good horse for Ellison and has plummeted in the weights. Ran a better race on 2nd turf run for Tutty LTO and has form on Soft ground. Has a low draw which can sometimes be a disadvantage but figures suggest possibly less so when it's Soft.

Dubai Acclaim - 0.25pt minus a bit for savers @21 on BF
His best form is on Soft and he's better on Turf than the AW. 3 poor runs last back end leaves him on a workable mark of 71.

Savers
Ventura Rascal 9.2 BF - surprised me last time when he did stay a mile and came from the widest draw at Ponte, he's the in-form horse and if he goes on this ground will take some beating. Several of his siblings have been suited by Soft ground.

Mabre 15.5 BF - Just a little on this as it has been well backed this morning and has good form on Soft ground but well out of form recently. Evans always capable of bringing one back from the dead.
 

PHS

Filly
15/05/21
20:35 Don - Cl5 8f Hcp

Licit 0.25pt@15/2

Just a notebook horse I did last night. Usually very slowly away (lost 10L last time) but makes up ground. Ran a very good race at Hay last Sept looking a class apart from rivals. This track should give her time to make up ground. It's an Apprentice race though, so anything could happen.
 

PHS

Filly
15/05/21
14:10 Thi - Cl5 8f

2 main bets and 2 savers:lolsign:. Staking's a bit complicated.

Little Jo - 0.25pt minus a bit for savers @ 11/1 BOG
Was a good horse for Ellison and has plummeted in the weights. Ran a better race on 2nd turf run for Tutty LTO and has form on Soft ground. Has a low draw which can sometimes be a disadvantage but figures suggest possibly less so when it's Soft.

Dubai Acclaim - 0.25pt minus a bit for savers @21 on BF
His best form is on Soft and he's better on Turf than the AW. 3 poor runs last back end leaves him on a workable mark of 71.

Savers
Ventura Rascal 9.2 BF - surprised me last time when he did stay a mile and came from the widest draw at Ponte, he's the in-form horse and if he goes on this ground will take some beating. Several of his siblings have been suited by Soft ground.

Mabre 15.5 BF - Just a little on this as it has been well backed this morning and has good form on Soft ground but well out of form recently. Evans always capable of bringing one back from the dead.
1st, 2nd and 4th not too shabby :) .
 

PHS

Filly
17/05/21
Lei 19:35 - 10f Cl5 3yo Hcp
Commonsensical 14/1 0.25pt Edit 15/1 (cashed out 14/1)

Been some nibbles at this in the last few minutes, so thought I'd better post. Disappointed that my 22 on BF not matched but hey ho!

There seems to be a few experts concentrating on the first-time in a handicap runners, but this one already has a certain level of proven ability. As a 2yo, he split Fancy Man (gave it 5lb inc appr claim) and No Recollection, both winners at a decent level already this year. That race was on Soft ground. LTO at Bath he looked a little uneasy on the Good to Firm (Firm in Places) ground, as well as being bumped inside the final furlong, which seemed to knock him off his stride. The winner of that race looks decent too; not often a Meehan 3yo wins FTO (not the race with Commonsensical).
 
Last edited:

PHS

Filly
18/05/21
Bri 16:25 - 12f Cl5 4yo+ Hcp
Be Fair -14/1 0.25pt staked 27:73 Place:Win

Be Fair ran 4th of 14, beaten less than a length in an Appr Hcp at Don first run of the season (though fit from the AW) ridden by Elisha Whittington. EW seemed to get the horse into a bit of trouble from 4f out trying to find a way through the pack instead of switching to the outside (which is what the winner did). Once in the clear, Be Fair responded well with final 4f sectionals as good as or better than the winner's and he posted his best ever RPR on turf.

He tried 10f on the AW next but suffered Not Clear Run, then tried over 2m last time on turf which was probably too far. His best form is over 12f at Kem where he's won 3 times, so this trip might suit.

The negative is that tomorrow's jockey, David Egan has a poor record at Bri (and Eps (a similar type of course)), though he is 3 from 10 for Tony Carroll in turf handicaps.
 

PHS

Filly
24/05/21
Wdr 17:45 - 8.5f Cl5 4yo+ Hcp
Mabre - 0.25pt Win @9/1, 0.125pt EW 8.5/1 1234 (if enough run)

Mentioned previously on 15/05/21;
Mabre 15.5 BF - Just a little on this as it has been well backed this morning and has good form on Soft ground but well out of form recently. Evans always capable of bringing one back from the dead.
Jumped in earlier before I could look at the race as this was very well backed last time and I thought the price wouldn't last.

Runs off 70 tomorrow and has been winning Cl4 Hcps during the AW season. He won nicely at Yarm last year with similar ground conditions. Arguably, he ran even better when only 3rd NTO at Newm fading late on after a strong spurt from 3f to 1f out to get into contention. I think he barely gets a straight mile.

Last time at Thi (18/1>11/2), he was very fast away from a wide draw (12) but Shane Kelly wasted that position taking him back, then losing position before the horse showed some speed, again from 3f to 1f out, before looking one-paced in the last furlong after the effort to get into contention took its toll.

Looking at the race, there's quite a lot of dross in there, giving him good place chances at least. Others with a chance are Newton Jack who won with a bit in hand over 7f last time, looking like a mile wouldn't be a problem and Maykir, a C&D winner at a lower level that's been winning races on the AW at Sou last winter.
 

PHS

Filly
25/05/21
Mus 14:20 - Cl4 9f 4yo+ Hcp
Cruyff Turn - 1/2pt win @ 5/1 with a Boost

A competive race but CT is the one I think has most scope off his current mark, with only 5 hcp runs to date. He's quite well bred for an Easterby horse, being out of the Listed placed Stoute mare Providence and a grandson of Stoute's very good mare Echelon. He and the Hills 2nd pulled well clear of the 3rd horse last time, and they could both be decent 4yo's.

Providence's full-sister Elysian produced two runners by the same sire as CT. Karl Burke's filly Divinity won off a mark of 86 and as Elysian wasn't as good as Providence on the track, there's a chance her offspring could be even better (CT is her first foal).
 

PHS

Filly
27/05/21

Rip 15:35 - Cl3 10f 4yo+ Hcp
Alternative Fact - 1/4pt win @ 17.5 BF (9/1 best book)

A 6 runner race in which all of the runners have a chance on their best form, yet we have joint 7/4 Fav's at the head of the market.

AF was well beaten on his 2nd run of the season at Nby but drops 3lbs to 92 as a result. Mark Crehan rides for the first time taking off a further 5lbs and the horse drops into a Class 3 for the first time since winning off 91 at Hay last year. His only other handicap win was in a Cl3, where he beat the subsequent year's Cambridgeshire winner Majestic Dawn. Crehan has already ridden 3 Hcp winners for Dunlop this year.

It's a longshot but at 17.5 I thought it worth a shot.

I've had a saver on Alpine Mistral who looked a potential Listed class filly when winning very easily at Not last year but flopped badly in two runs this season. 15 on BF.
 

PHS

Filly
29/05/21

Hay 16:40 - Cl4 7.5f 3yo Hcp
Il Bandito 0.25pt 9/2 and saver w/o Fav 11/4

IB had some decent form as a 2yo and ran well FTO at Eps in a good hcp. Hills 3yo's usually improve for a run, so we might see him run better here. The Haggas fav only won a Fillies maiden FTO this year but her 2yo form does look quite strong, hence the saver in the w/o market.
 
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Coseleymon

Yearling
29/05/21

Hay 16:40 - Cl4 7.5f 3yo Hcp
Il Bandito 0.25pt 9/2 and saver w/o Fav 11/4

IB had some decent form as a 2yo and ran well FTO at Eps in a good hcp. Hills 3yo's usually improve for a run, so we might see him run better here. The Haggas fav only won a Fillies maiden FTO this year but her 2yo form does look quite strong, hence the saver in the w/o market.
Well done PHS never in doubt
 
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PHS

Filly
29/05/21

Che 17:00 - Cl4 1m2.5f 3yo Hcp

No bet

Have this between Military Mission, Remedium, Khezaana and Solent Gateway but can't really split them, so no bet. Remedium if I had to but I think the filly Khezaana could improve for better ground than she won on at Beverley last time.
 

Coseleymon

Yearling
29/05/21

Che 17:00 - Cl4 1m2.5f 3yo Hcp

No bet

Have this between Military Mission, Remedium, Khezaana and Solent Gateway but can't really split them, so no bet. Remedium if I had to but I think the filly Khezaana could improve for better ground than she won on at Beverley last time.
Im not really a flat race expert but looking at the race Beasley must have gone to Chester for a winner as he could have ridden one at Beverley
 

Coseleymon

Yearling
29/05/21

Che 17:00 - Cl4 1m2.5f 3yo Hcp

No bet

Have this between Military Mission, Remedium, Khezaana and Solent Gateway but can't really split them, so no bet. Remedium if I had to but I think the filly Khezaana could improve for better ground than she won on at Beverley last time.
Im not really a flat race expert but looking at the race Beasley must have gone to Chester for a winner as he could have ridden one at Beverley
 

PHS

Filly
31/05/21

Wdr 17:37 - 1m4f Cl5 3yo Hcp
Dansing Bear 0.5pt Win @ 5/1 (was 5/2 last night) and 0.25pt @2.88 TBP 2pl

A rare FTO AW winner for Ed Dunlop when upped to 12f, his grand dam won the Aphrodite (12f) for John Gosden, so there's proven stamina on turf in the family. The Stoute Fav is the obv danger, but is unproven at the trip and with Mark Crehan's 5lb claim, has to give the selection 8lb, which might prove decisive.
 

PHS

Filly
Apr/May results

DateCseTimeSelBet TypeStake UnitStake TotalDec oddsPosReturnProfitROI
17-Apr​
Not
18:15​
Jean BaptisteEW
0.25​
0.50​
6.00​
2​
0.56​
21-Apr​
Cat
16:00​
MolinariEW
0.25​
0.50​
6.50​
0​
25-Apr​
Sal
16:30​
BrascaW
0.25​
0.25​
4.33​
1​
1.08​
29-Apr​
Mus
16:35​
DreamsellerW
0.25​
0.25​
4.33​
0​
29-Apr​
Mus
17:05​
ProprietyW
0.25​
0.25​
4.50​
1​
1.13​
01-May​
Thi
14:10​
Rocket DancerW
0.38​
0.38​
11.00​
0​
01-May​
Thi
14:10​
Rocket Dancer w/oW
0.13​
0.13​
8.50​
0​
02-May​
New
13:50​
Grand BazaarW
0.25​
0.25​
5.50​
0​
08-May​
Asc
16:15​
Man Of The NightW
0.25​
0.25​
16.00​
0​
08-May​
Thi
19:05​
Breguet BoyW
0.25​
0.25​
7.00​
0​
11-May​
Ayr
20:05​
Dream With MeW
0.25​
0.25​
2.75​
1​
0.69​
11-May​
Ayr
20:35​
PuckleW
0.50​
0.50​
4.33​
0​
15-May​
Thi
14:10​
Little JoW
0.22​
0.22​
12.00​
1​
2.63​
15-May​
Thi
14:10​
Dubai AcclaimW
0.25​
0.22​
21.00​
0​
15-May​
Don
20:35​
LicitW
0.25​
0.22​
8.50​
0​
17-May​
Lei
19:35​
CommonsensicalW
0.25​
0.22​
16.00​
0​
18-May​
Bri
16:25​
Be FairEW
0.25​
0.25​
15.00​
3​
0.25​
24-May​
Wdr
17:45​
MabreW
0.25​
0.25​
10.00​
A
0.25​
24-May​
Wdr
17:45​
MabreEW
0.13​
0.25​
9.50​
A
0.25​
25-May​
Mus
14:20​
Cruyff TurnW
0.50​
0.50​
6.00​
0​
27-May​
Rip
15:35​
Alternative FactW
0.25​
0.25​
17.50​
0​
27-May​
Rip
15:35​
Alpine MistralW
0.02​
0.02​
15.00​
0​
29-May​
Hay
16:40​
Il BanditoW
0.25​
0.25​
5.50​
1​
1.38​
29-May​
Hay
16:40​
Il Bandito w/oW
0.09​
0.09​
3.75​
1​
0.34​
31-May​
Wdr
17:37​
Dansing BearW
0.50​
0.50​
6.00​
0​
31-May​
Wdr
17:37​
Dansing BearP
0.25​
0.25​
2.88​
0​
TOTALS
7.23​
8.55​
1.32​
18%​
 
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