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2021 Flat Selections

PHS

Filly
01/05/21

14:10 Thi
Rocket Dancer - 3/8pt 10/1 BOG and 1/8pt 15/2 w/o Copper and Five.

C&F looks thrown in on his recent form in better races but he looks plenty short enough, and swapping P.J. for O'Sullivan is -5lb for me. He also might need a bit further than this, though this track with its long straight should suit better than Ponte & Notts.

RD impressed when chasing home the progressive Dragons Will Rise last time, and the pair finished well clear of the rest, including a probably unfit C&F; he might just have improved from 3 to 4. Mick Easterby's form is always a worry but his handicappers have been running OK. Nathan Evans has a 28% strike rate in C&D handicaps inc 4 from 8 for Mick.

Delgrey Boy, without any form but a half-brother to Highwaygrey is also interesting with David Allan on board, but he's already been well found by punters. He ran much better than his last of 14 from a very poor draw at Ponte would suggest.
 
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PHS

Filly
The way that ran you'd think he hasn't been fed for two days. Immediately pushed along out of the stalls and backpedalling 2f out.
Race 6 - 4:35pm
THE WILLIAM HILL ACCA FREEDOM HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 5)

Following the race, the Veterinary Officer reported that DREAMSELLER (IRE), placed sixth, had bled from the nose.
 

mattyboy

Yearling
Surprised to see Hugh select 'my' Jean Baptiste today. Looks a bit out of his depth based on what he's done so far. We'll see.
I like the debutant for William Haggas, (Tom Collins). Could just be an improver after winning on last start for David Elsworth last year at Pontefract, I know David Elsworth has been a superb trainer, but he didn't have a good season last year and he may well be a declining force. Winning on final start for him suggests there could be further improvement to me. And the horse has had only 10 career starts in this 4yo plus handicap.
Tom Collins has been gelded since his last run. Dam is Group 2 winner Cocktail Queen and this lad is by Dubawi
Draw is a bit of a quibble but many of the leading contenders are drawn wide.

Nugget is the exception and his form does look strong, with the potential for more to come too, having won the Newbury Spring Cup last time. The Nottingham 3rd the time before looks strong form too, (Astro King won that race and reopposes here). The second Finest Sound from that race has won since. All unexposed horses

Looks a good race.
 

mattyboy

Yearling
01/05/21

14:10 Thi
Rocket Dancer - 3/8pt 10/1 BOG and 1/8pt 15/2 w/o Copper and Five.

C&F looks thrown in on his recent form in better races but he looks plenty short enough, and swapping P.J. for O'Sullivan is -5lb for me. He also might need a bit further than this, though this track with its long straight should suit better than Ponte & Notts.

RD impressed when chasing home the progressive Dragons Will Rise last time, and the pair finished well clear of the rest, including a probably unfit C&F; he might just have improved from 3 to 4. Mick Easterby's form is always a worry but his handicappers have been running OK. Nathan Evans has a 28% strike rate in C&D handicaps inc 4 from 8 for Mick.

Delgrey Boy, without any form but a half-brother to Highwaygrey is also interesting with David Allan on board, but he's already been well found by punters. He ran much better than his last of 14 from a very poor draw at Ponte would suggest.
The David O'Meara, Danny Tudhope horse, (Mushaba) also looks interesting to me. Very unexposed and is well bred, (dam a Listed winner and half sister to Grade 2 and 3 winners in USA). Had only two starts for yard after arriving from Kevin prendergast in Ireland. Disappointing last time but this trainer/jockey combo do well at Thirsk, and is likely to be better than current rating of 68 in time. He opened at 10/1 and is now in to 7/1 so has been well-supported, although I would want bigger than current price probably.
Think he's one of the horses that is the type to back early, (well bred horse having only second start for yard that improve horses and ran like a drain last time).
I'mm not surprised Delgrey Boy ahs been well backed either by the way; likely to have needed it last time, (especially coming from this yard at a local track). First choice jockey David Allan now riding, and like you say totally unexposed, with a decent pedigree.
 

PHS

Filly
I like the debutant for William Haggas, (Tom Collins). Could just be an improver after winning on last start for David Elsworth last year at Pontefract, I know David Elsworth has been a superb trainer, but he didn't have a good season last year and he may well be a declining force. Winning on final start for him suggests there could be further improvement to me. And the horse has had only 10 career starts in this 4yo plus handicap.
Tom Collins has been gelded since his last run. Dam is Group 2 winner Cocktail Queen and this lad is by Dubawi
Draw is a bit of a quibble but many of the leading contenders are drawn wide.
Agree TC looks interesting. Came back well to beat a good horse in that last start and you'd expect him to improve. Haggas going for the decent money here; way better than Nby Spring Cup money.

However, it's a devilishly difficult looking race. One in which if you haven't got an early price on your fancy it looks like not worth bothering because you could be so wrong.
 

PHS

Filly
Delgrey Boy, without any form but a half-brother to Highwaygrey is also interesting with David Allan on board, but he's already been well found by punters. He ran much better than his last of 14 from a very poor draw at Ponte would suggest.
Probably paid the price for not looking at the race last night! Tim's horses peaking much earlier this season.
 

mattyboy

Yearling
I'm looking at the 3.50 at Thirsk.
Louis Treize looks extremely interesting. He is running off 10lbs lower today, (plus Angus Villiers' 5kbs claim), than when 3rd at Newcastle over this 6f trip in Febrauary 2020, (and also at Haydock over 6f in July 2019). Seven races later and he is off 71, having mainly raced at 1 mile plus since.
Louis Treize is by sprinter Slade Power and out of a 6 furlong 2 year old winner, who is the sister of a 6 furlong 2 year old Listed winner. Had one run this season when well beaten over one mile and is Newmarket trainer Richard Spencer's only runner on card. Could this be a plot?
 

mattyboy

Yearling
Probably paid the price for not looking at the race last night! Tim's horses peaking much earlier this season.
I think he had a decent start after lockdown last season too, (although that was unusual circumstances obviously, being in June). Maybe though, it suggested to him that he should try and get his horses ready earlier in the year in future seasons?
 

PHS

Filly
I think he had a decent start after lockdown last season too, (although that was unusual circumstances obviously, being in June). Maybe though, it suggested to him that he should try and get his horses ready earlier in the year in future seasons?
Good point.
 

PHS

Filly
T tacker talking about Global Storm has made me have a look at the race. I accept his Dam showed her best form over further but she was nothing special, peaking out at a mark of 66, plus he's never ran on ground this firm before (been kept away from it)?

02/05/21
13:50 New
Grand Bazaar has been kept in training and gelded. Golden Horn's progeny show a marked preference for a firmer surface and have a 36% strike rate over this distance (inc 1m 41/2f). GB maybe didn't beat much last year, but it may transpire that his 2nd behind Shandoz (maybe we'll see this one in Listed/Grp races this year?) at Ascot could be his best form. 0.25pt @9/2 with a Boost.
 

PHS

Filly
Chanced a couple for small stakes stepping up in trip to 1m4f;

08/05/21
16:15 Asc
Man Of The Night 0.25pt 15/1 BOG with a Boost

Louganini has the best form here but looks way too short considering Roger Charlton's dire form
Koeman I don't see appeciating the Soft ground
Nuits St George looks high enough in the weights for a FTO run
Frontispiece likes this ground but his mark makes life difficult
Group One Power must have ground doubts
Aced It has a chance, but steps up in class markedly here

MOTN might have beaten Zabeel Champion with a clear run on his finale at New last season. He raced prominently last time at Eps but looked one-paced at the finish. As a result, he's down 2lb and back to the mark he ran off at New last season. Drops into a Cl2 here. His grand-dam won a Grp 1 in Fra over this trip. It's speculative, but the price compensates.


08/05/21
19:05 Thi
Breguet Boy 0.25pt 6/1 BOG with a Boost

Have to admit, I've not looked at this race properly. BB has done well over hurdles since winning at Ham last season. He ran OK at Ayr last time (10f), staying on to close on the leaders late but was probably unsuited by the fast track and GF ground, and looking like a step up in trip might suit. The trainer is in good form.
 

PHS

Filly
The David O'Meara, Danny Tudhope horse, (Mushaba) also looks interesting to me. Very unexposed and is well bred, (dam a Listed winner and half sister to Grade 2 and 3 winners in USA). Had only two starts for yard after arriving from Kevin prendergast in Ireland. Disappointing last time but this trainer/jockey combo do well at Thirsk, and is likely to be better than current rating of 68 in time. He opened at 10/1 and is now in to 7/1 so has been well-supported, although I would want bigger than current price probably.
Think he's one of the horses that is the type to back early, (well bred horse having only second start for yard that improve horses and ran like a drain last time).
Runs 18:20 Wet; already too short for me at 4/1.
 

PHS

Filly
11/05/21
20:05 Ayr
Dream With Me 0.25pt @7/4

Beat subsequent winner Howzer Black over C&D on GF last time. He might be even better on Good ground, and if he is, he could make light of a 4lb rise. Likes to lead and this is a good track to do so.

Another selection tonight if this wins (sort of a double but retaining some returns).
 

PHS

Filly
11/05/21
20:35 Ayr
Puckle 0.5pt 100/30

She gave El Picador a hard time until he got the better of her in the last 50yds, so this drop back a furlong might help. She's been very consistent on the AW and Turf since last Oct, so here's hoping she doesn't have an off day.
 

Coseleymon

Yearling
11/05/21
20:35 Ayr
Puckle 0.5pt 100/30

She gave El Picador a hard time until he got the better of her in the last 50yds, so this drop back a furlong might help. She's been very consistent on the AW and Turf since last Oct, so here's hoping she doesn't have an off day.
Good luck hope you're on the double
 
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