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@markfinn, it's in longhand so must predate AW racing :eek:. I seldom consider the artificial surface tracks, mainly because I have never had any success there.
Surprised to hear that. Find both wolves kempton two of the most reliable Chelmsford ok Lingfield harder Newcastle too new to say as yet and Southwell is a one off .

AW form works out well, would have thought your methods would suit both tracks
 
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Jackform

Colt
Chepstow (going forecast good side of GS)
4.45 Probability % 09.50 nos - 1, 2, 7, 8, 10, 11 currently indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 5/2, contender 5/1, not expected longer than 10/1 (Nos 12, 13, 14 not considered as out of the long hcap).

1. 3*?
2. 2*
3. 1*
4.
5. 1*
6. 1*
7. 5* Rock The Kasbah 11/4 early, LTO 169? dropped 8 lbs, dropped 1 grade, C&DC. Ran well on reappearance last two season. Curtis/Jonathon Moore won this last year with Potters Cross.
8. 4* Potters Legend 13/2 early, LTO 189? dropped 13 lbs, dropped 1 grade, DBF. good form tho' beaten in hcaps, runs well fresh
9.
10. 2*
11. 2*

Comment: Selection is Rock The Kasbah f/cast as a strong fav, wouldn't want it any shorter. A saver may be in order on the yard 2nd string Relentless Dream with Jonathon Moore up. Not sure about the top weight Sizing Codelco, may have the class, won at Punchestown E350.
 

Jackform

Colt
Chepstow (going forecast good side of GS)
2.50 Probable % 09.40 nos 1, 3, 7, 8, 9 currently indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.

1. 3* Amour De Nuit 11/2 early, LTO 23, dropped 5 lbs, up 3 grades? in good form, Nichols 30/Sam T-D
2. 0
3. 3*
4. 4* Dear Sire 10/1? LTO 15, dropped 12 lbs*, same grade, has 6 wins, possible. McCain 12
5. 0
6. 0
7. 3*
8. 5* Tommy Rapper 10/3, LTO 212? dropped 5lbs, same grade, good form last season, just track fitness is the concern? D Skelton 15/ H Skelton
9. 1*

Comment: Vision Des Flos is currently a strong fav but has only won a bumper at Punchestown E590 so a lot to prove here. Tommy Rapper is top-rated with track fitness the concern.
Dear Sire is currently not expected but has to be an each-way shot. Amour De Nuit has to perform in this grade.
 

Jackform

Colt
Monday and not a fun day for racing. I considered the Yarmouth feature race but swerved it as it is a stakes race and I prefer hcaps. The Windsor 3.30 class 4 was my choice.

Windsor (going forecast firm side of good)
3.30 Probability % 09.20 nos 2, 4, 5, 8, 9 currently indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1 ( Arctic Flower not considered as out of the long hcap).
Column headings: cloth no, early market, class, consistency, Topspeed, RPR

1. OXOOO 1*
2. XOOOO 1*
3. OOOXO 1*
4. XOXOX 3* Killay 5/2 early, BF. Fancied but marked down for class and speed. 3rd at Newbury last time and first time at a mile today.
5. XXXOX 4* Finale 4/1, D2. Just marked down for time. Has 2 wins and on a fair mark
6. OOOXO 1*
8. XXOOX 3* Clef 4/1, marked down on consistency and time. May be coming back to from with a 2nd last time. Fahey/Hanagan
9. XOXXX 4* Sandy Shores 7/1, C&D. Well down on class today.

Comment: Fastnet Spin is consistent but not considered here as in the not expected range. Finale looks the best overall.
 
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Jackform

Colt
After assessing the Leics 3.00 I found that all the factors on my chart diverged so I will not take it any further.
 

Jackform

Colt
Nottingham (going forecast better side of GS)
4.05 Probablility % 09.20 nos 1, 4, 7 currently indicating a win from these. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1)

1. 3* Sepal 5/2 early, LTO 18, up 11 lbs? dropped 1 grade, DBF. Improved, driven to chase final fur kept on -1L Haydock 14f heavy
2. 1*
3. 2*
4. 3* Stoney Broke 15/2, LTO 34, up 4 lbs, dropped 1 grade, C. One to consider, driven and kept on same pace final fur -2L 12f soft
5. 3*
6. 1*
7. 5* Mellanoie 11/4, LTO 21, up 6lbs, same grade, C&DBF. Two good secondsrecently, chased pressing every chance kept on under pressure -neck Goodwood 14f soft
8. 0
9. 1*

Comment: Difficult to choose between Sepal and Mellanoie so probably dutching at the current odds but wouldn' want any shorter
 

Jackform

Colt
Lingfield AW a departure for me but some good class races today.

Lingfield (going forecast standard)
2.25 Probability % 1o.00 nos 3, 7, 9, 12, 14 currently indicating a win restricted to these.

1. 2* 4
3. 3* 4
4. 3* 4
5. 1* 1
6. 0
7. 4* 3
8. 1* 1
9. 5* 8 Cribbs Causeway 4/1 early, LTO 26, dropped 2lbs, up 1 grade, C. 2 from 2 AW improver won well in headgear LTO
10. 0
11. 0
12. 4* 8 Melodic Motion 13/8, LTO 49, up 3lbs, same grade, BF. useful stayer.
13. 0
14 3* 3

Comment: Melodic Motion currently looks too short opposite the risk and the better bet could be Cribbs Causeway.
 

Jackform

Colt
Almost four months since last post on here for me, so just checking where I am at with this.

Ascot (going forecast soft but heavy in places)
3.35 Market expected 09.30 nos 1, 5, 7 indicating a win restricted to these

1. 4* 4 (my rating) Coney Island, C&D, LTO 56, same weight, up 1 class, TS 123, best TS 130
2. 2* 5
3. 3* 6
4. 2* 4
5. 6* 10 Top Notch, C&D2, LTO 65? up 1 lb, same class, TS 143, best TS 150. Henderson/Jacob
6. 0* 0
7. 4* 8

Comment: Top Notch and Coney Island are the only two conformed by both sets of ratings. On balance Top Notch is preferred to Coney Island.
 
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