VDW Early Selections.

[mick]

I think it is probably some of the Cryptic VDW Posters who get negative press, rather than the suggestions to concentrate on certain factors when analysis a race. To a certain extent VDW encouraged this type of behaviour when he replied to himself under the name G Hall.

I call these people Hinters and tbf it does not apply exclusively to those who use the VDW method. If you have something worth sharing on a forum then explain it in plain English so that members who are interested can understand and investigate, and if not then why even mention let alone Crow about it in the first place...............I suspect i could answer my own question but will be polite and say nothing.

Re VDW using additional identities to praise himself this really does wind me up in the main because i have tried but failed to obtain simular for myself on this forum. I do feel this is a great injustice because imagine the entertainment value when this mick picks an argument with the other one.

 

[Chesham]

Hi mick you only have to type in VDW Betting Systems on Amazon to see plenty of aftertiming LOL and EBay is full of Betting Systems. Lord knows how much the system that I post Pre race selections on HRB For Novices thread would be worth on eBay as it is running at 100% and just single bets, no dutching. 35/35 so far

 

[Nellsman]

Thanks for the informative reply Chesham. As we are all aware VDW gets negative press, from many, however it can't be disputed that he knew his onions, and even the work that he put into demonstrating his knowledge was more than most I assume put into their race analysis.

Hi T Thomas,
I agree with you wholeheartedly, I think it's a real shame that his memory gets denigrated the way that it does. This may be as Chesham averred, I'm not sure that is the case. We tend to get this back to front insomuch as VDW invented Gordon Hall, but it's actually the other way round. Gordon Hall invented VDW. Hall actually appeared in "Sports Forum" before VDW penned the Erin letter and indeed it was Hall who coined the phrase "The Flying Dutchman" to describe his alter ego. It was Hall who pointed out the real essence of the methodology in his letter "Constant Stream Of Winners".
I don't bet on National Hunt nowadays, that's just personal choice, but I did work Saturdays cards and I can confirm that as Chesham pointed out Edwardstone fulfilled all the attributes of a VDW selection. Also if anyone is interested they can evaluate the 3:35 Newbury and note that the 20/1 winner was a horse that the methodology would have highlighted as a very real danger and not one to leave out of your calculations lightly.

 

[BC]

Hi T Thomas,
I agree with you wholeheartedly, I think it's a real shame that his memory gets denigrated the way that it does. This may be as Chesham averred, I'm not sure that is the case. We tend to get this back to front insomuch as VDW invented Gordon Hall, but it's actually the other way round. Gordon Hall invented VDW. Hall actually appeared in "Sports Forum" before VDW penned the Erin letter and indeed it was Hall who coined the phrase "The Flying Dutchman" to describe his alter ego. It was Hall who pointed out the real essence of the methodology in his letter "Constant Stream Of Winners".
I don't bet on National Hunt nowadays, that's just personal choice, but I did work Saturdays cards and I can confirm that as Chesham pointed out Edwardstone fulfilled all the attributes of a VDW selection. Also if anyone is interested they can evaluate the 3:35 Newbury and note that the 20/1 winner was a horse that the methodology would have highlighted as a very real danger and not one to leave out of your calculations lightly.

The problem, as I see it, is this: as G Hall, he deliberately drew attention to the supposedly winning formula of his alter ego, VDW.

Those grateful for his writings want to give him a pass for this behaviour. (I know I did.) However, if a stranger signed up on UKBF and behaved like that - what would you think of him?

But what did G Hall/VDW actually give us?

• The ability rating is nonsense.
• The consistency rating is nonsense.
• The staking plan he outlined is dangerous.

I think the value of what he provided in his writings is not contained directly in what he wrote, but by causing people to think about the aspects he outlined in his equation and come up with their own specifics.

Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners​

Ability (or class) must be rated in some way, just not with a calculator. The thing to do is sit down quietly and ask yourself what makes one horse classier than another. Don't go another step until you can answer that for yourself.

Consistency must be looked at from the perspective of what the horse was up against in its previous races. Which is the better form: close-up 5th in a hot Class 2 with 16 runners? Or a distant 2nd in a poor Class 4 with 4 runners? If you'd opt for the former, then you have to chuck the CR out.

G Hall may have been writing with the best of intentions. But he went about it deceitfully and you have to ask yourself why?

Give him a pass if you wish. But for goodness sake, think for yourself about those aspects.

And finally, in true VDW style, I can tell you I did back Glory & Fortune 50p each-way.

Yes. That's my level.

 

[BC]

VDW‘s First Platform was Constant Form- and he later changed that to consistent form

Constant Form is a better description as the form is franked from one race to the next .

Thanks for pointing that out Chesham. My Browzers' books are tucked away at the moment, so I simply copied and pasted from an old post of Mtoto's. I'm not sure it matters too much tbh. All I'd say is that consistency chimes in better with his rating, but I'd certainly defer to your superior understanding of all things horseracing, including VDW.

 

[mick]

BC Your above post #184 was a good one with some valid points shared. When his letters first started appearing in the SCHB i was sold on the thinking and seduced by his claimed results which where inspirational. The consequence being that i spent much additional time looking at form attempting to understand and emulate.

I failed to do so but there was a positive involved in respect that my general knowledge of why horses win or lose races did increase and i was able to put some of this learning to good future use in non VDW ways. So i guess in a perverse way i should thank him, but if this was his intention then i still believe he would have better served by being upfront about it from the get go.

In truth there is still a part of me which wishes to believe that his claimed success was true, but the Rub remains that we will never know because there was no pre race posting and regardless of the justifications offered by some of his followers my view is this remains the bottom line for anyone ( A VDW user or otherwise ) who constantly Crows that they have cracked the game.

 

[Sandhog]

.Interesting posts from all.
I 'm particularly intrigued by BC's comments/question: "what makes one horse classier than another?"

Crucial question for the racing game, I'd say.

What is the answer?

My simple guess is that the "classier" horse can run faster/beat more horses , more often, at a high level of racing.
"High level of racing"? What do I mean?
Group Class and near, I'd suppose.
Perhaps, these races would be for the highest prize money, so , we could be back to square one.

In all honesty, I still don't know, after all these years.

Good luck all, or, good ratings-interpretation all!
Your choice.

Over and out.

 

[Thomas]

Morning Mick the evidence of vdw style selections from Lee and Chesham, and indeed by Chesham's explanations (the best I have seen anywhere), suggest to me that the VDW Methods do work, and that it is our interpretation of them that prevents us from succeeding.

The fact that VDW is no longer with us, prevents the confirmation or verification of the successful uptake of his methods, people like Barney aka vanman harped on about their own success, but could never substanciate these claims.

Sandhog it was Lee who said that he found Saturdays and the higher class races the most difficult, and I tend to agree. A term that crops up occassionlly on TV, is that of the "Saturday horse". I have heard Seb Sanders refer to it on more than one occassion, and indeed I have heard it in conjunction with Australian racing.

 

[mick]

Good Morning T Thomas i totally agree that Chesham is the only person i have seen who consistently posts pre race his VDW based selections, but would you not agree that if VDW had provided some of the same it would have negated much of the negativity and trouble between members which often occurs on VDW threads.?

I speak from long ago memory so will stand corrected but my recollection is that when another Sports Forum member wrote about this VDW responded with what i interrupted as a safe threat ie Yes if there is a £10,000 side bet involved. A very large amount back in those days and a safe bet that there would be no takers.

 

[Thomas]

Fair comment Mick, and the cloak and daggers was carried over onto the Internet, with the various vdw forums, eg vdw methodology, Gummy, etc, where it was endemic.

It was though perhaps this veil of secrecy, the holy grail, the smoke and mirrors that drew attention to the saga. Vdw also reinvigorated it,by adopting all these other pseudonyms ie G Hall, GR Lincs, and possibly more, whenever interest was waning.

The most disappointing thing for me was his unnecessary lies regarding his exploits, in the war, etc, because at the end of the day its only horse racing.

 

[Chesham]

Thanks for pointing that out Chesham. My Browzers' books are tucked away at the moment, so I simply copied and pasted from an old post of Mtoto's. I'm not sure it matters too much tbh. All I'd say is that consistency chimes in better with his rating, but I'd certainly defer to your superior understanding of all things horseracing, including VDW.

The following was Posting Mondaythis week (pre Race) on a Thread Called “Pedigree Handicapping” (Inner Sanctum Blog)

A good example of Constant Form. It also brings in an area that every VDW Poster has always overlooked and having read the Gummy Archive ( I was never a member ) no poster ever mentions Breeding yet VDW wrote about that aspect and that he used Breeding for some of his bets

this is the pedigree link that appears in the Screen Shot. https://www.goffsuk.com/GoffsCMS/_Sales/178/35.pdf?a=1

You may not have intended this to come across as being Sarcastic when you made this comment. “but I'd certainly defer to your superior understanding of all things horseracing, including VDW.”

I do not consider myself to have a superior knowledge to anyone with regards VDW or Horseracing, I’m at my happiest working in collaboration with other members on the Blog to explore new angles and even go over old ground. Recently exploring the method that VDW outlined in the “Wing And. A Prayer” article as readers had complained that They did not have access to his Personal Ratings. He used commercial Ratings that were available to all, combined with the basic platform” He even outlined where the Class/From horses was having to give away too much weight to an improving horse and that this type should be avoided..

None has superior knowledge just their own understanding and interpretation. I continue to benefit from the understanding that other members have and that’s why we started the Blog. Sometimes it’s about supporting each other with real life events and having the safe space to do that. Other times to give praise to the efforts that others show.

VDW can bring out the Toxic in some members and it does not have to be that way.

I wish you well

 

[mick]

Chesham although i was surprised by your comment that he only used commercial ratings available to all, because although i recall a couple of his post race examples using Split Second and Daily mail formcast ratings these where not in agreement with the two sets of ratings he showed for many of his other examples. ?

 

[Chesham]

Chesham although i was surprised by your comment that he only used commercial ratings available to all, because although i recall a couple of his post race examples using Split Second and Daily mail formcast ratings these where not in agreement with the two sets of ratings he showed for many of his other examples. ?

He used The Sporting Life Handicap Ratings and DM Formcast in the Letter regarding examples Wing And A Prayer and a few others who were in races the same day . It was to show that his own personal Ratings were a guide, but that readily available Ratings could also be used with the basic platform

The other horse that VDW covers in the same Letter was Sunset Cristo who was useful as he covers the merits of Constant Form with this horse and also that as well as being best on the Ratings available

In the Sunset Cristo Example, he talks about the Form and says it is Impressive i.e. Note not only how it ran but what it had behind, Silver Buck, Another Captain

These two horses that he mentioned were behind SC in different races not the same race. So VDW appears to be using these two horses to indicate how impressive the Form is of his recent races
VDW said the Class of Race can be Different to the Class Of Horse Competing

Sometimes he mentions other horses, but let’s concentrate on Sunset Cristo. VDW: ‘The form is impressive and note not only how it ran but what it had behind it , Silver Buck, Another Captain’

The two horses mentioned competed in separate races against Sunset Christo. VDW is indicating that Form should be measured against the ability level of the horses that Sunset Cristo had behind him, he was using these runners as a benchmark for the quality of the form that Sunset Cristo Presented

From memory after SC met Silver Buck, that Silver Buck had gone on to win The King George which was run before the SC example Race

It can be that the you are interested in has been the Sandwich between a couple of BENCH Mark Horses who have go on to win better things or at least perform well when going up in class.

If you Rate A Boxer it is by the quality of opponents he has fought against.

He Used Split Second in another letter with To Agori Mou (Mtoto used this exmple,for,his own take on a VDW Rating. He linked the Split Second Rating that was achieved in it highest class run, based on Prize Money for that Rce. Later he linked the Split Second Rting to the highest OR in the race) We do similar with the BCR Column on the Class Rtings Sheet.

 

[tractorboy]

I've said it before , but both races that he elaborated on Pegwell Bay and Roushayd were both done after the event , and a case could have been made if any other horse won those races. Or not bothered with if won by an outsider.

 

[Thomas]

Chesham you mention the gummy site, apart from Lee did you find anyone else had a good grasp of vdw methodology. I recall a chap called Statajack seemed very knowledgeable and Guest gave the impression that he did,but actually didn't know as much as Lee, although he conveyed the impression that he did, although he was a very helpful poster.

 

[Chesham]

Chesham you mention the gummy site, apart from Lee did you find anyone else had a good grasp of vdw methodology. I recall a chap called Statajack seemed very knowledgeable and Guest gave the impression that he did,but actually didn't know as much as Lee, although he conveyed the impression that he did, although he was a very helpful poster.

I was s never a member of Gummy, but Lee had a good grasp of Constant Form and Class. He also was looking to see if the Trainer was placing the horse correctly. Another who I came across on the Peach Forum and got on well with was John In Brazil. He also had a good grasp of what the Trainer was up to and had his own method of Measuring Class and Rating the Horse accordingly on each race that it competed in.

Although Mtoto and I did not always agree I did respect that he posted Pre Race and never swerved from his opinion. Sometimes it worked out as he predicted and other times not so. I knew his son Danny (Stone) from the Peach Forum and again got on well with him too. Sadly he died ina car accident, something which Mtoto never really got over as they both shared a passion for trying to crack the methodolgy. Mtoto and I were in contact via email before I was a member of this forum and he shared his Rating Method and I did the same with the class ratings. He said that prior to his tragic accident that Danny was into laying horses as opposed to backing them, which was a change from when I was on the Peach Forum.

Mtoto thought “This horse, this race” at the time I could not quite see as I often thought he had picked “This horse, but the wrong race” Later I have looked at this and done correctly you can have a horse “In The Zone: with regards either a past Race trend or being placed to its best advantage.

One thing Mtoto did was pick horses that were at big Prices when posting Pre Race, so it was understandable that his strike rate would not be anything like the 80% that VDW claimed was achievable.

 

[Chesham]

Example of In The Zone, (Posted Pre Race)

Zambella also had everything going for it regarding the Template that VDW gave for Wing And. A Prayer and Sunset Cristo.

I have been collaborating with Blog Members regarding The Template to evaluate races that contain all the positive attributes of the mentioned Template.

 

[BC]

I 'm particularly intrigued by BC's comments/question: "what makes one horse classier than another?"

Crucial question for the racing game, I'd say.

What is the answer?

My simple guess is that the "classier" horse can run faster/beat more horses , more often, at a high level of racing.
"High level of racing"? What do I mean?
Group Class and near, I'd suppose.
Perhaps, these races would be for the highest prize money, so , we could be back to square one.

In all honesty, I still don't know, after all these years.

I reiterate: sit down and spend a little time just thinking about it. It will come to you. You're already pretty much there except that prize money and class levels, per se, can be misleading. (Although as a quick overview, they can be useful.) Read Chesham's post #193 carefully a few times, then go and sit down somewhere quiet and think about it.

It also brings in an area that every VDW Poster has always overlooked and having read the Gummy Archive ( I was never a member ) no poster ever mentions Breeding yet VDW wrote about that aspect and that he used Breeding for some of his bets

As I recall, John in Brazil used to use breeding for some of his experiments on Gummy's. And I believe Trojan may have done so also.

You may not have intended this to come across as being Sarcastic when you made this comment. “but I'd certainly defer to your superior understanding of all things horseracing, including VDW.”

I do not consider myself to have a superior knowledge to anyone with regards VDW or Horseracing, I’m at my happiest working in collaboration with other members on the Blog to explore new angles and even go over old ground. Recently exploring the method that VDW outlined in the “Wing And. A Prayer” article as readers had complained that They did not have access to his Personal Ratings. He used commercial Ratings that were available to all, combined with the basic platform” He even outlined where the Class/From horses was having to give away too much weight to an improving horse and that this type should be avoided..

None has superior knowledge just their own understanding and interpretation. I continue to benefit from the understanding that other members have and that’s why we started the Blog. Sometimes it’s about supporting each other with real life events and having the safe space to do that. Other times to give praise to the efforts that others show.

VDW can bring out the Toxic in some members and it does not have to be that way.

I nearly fell off my chair.

No, it was not intended to be sarcastic. Perhaps your own modesty doesn't wish to hear it, but one has only to read your posts to know that you are a cut above. Certainly a cut above my level. It was intended as a genuine compliment.

We talk about class within sport. But it's not only sport where obvious levels of ability can be seen. I was discussing this with my brother-in-law, who was an experimental physicist at Imperial College. He sailed through his O and A levels with straight As and his bachelor's degree with a first. But he said when he got to his doctorate, he began to need help and that's when, in his words, "when I began to meet Nobel winning physicists, I realised that I wasn't as clever as I thought I was."

Whether you like it or not, when it comes to assessing a horse race, you (together with JIB, Trojan and a few others on UKBF) are Group class. And whether I like it or not, I am a class 4 handicapper. It is what it is.

My own interest in horseracing has been almost non-existent in the last couple of years. Indeed, I did not have a bet for over two years until very recently. And even then, at the level previously indicated. I have kept in touch with it through a couple of message boards.

To sum up: no offence was intended. Quite the reverse.

 

[Chesham]

Thanks for putting me right BC and I accept that I have interpreted your comment incorrectly. Apologies for my assumption.

 

[Sandhog]

OK, BC,
I'll sit down and consider, as you advise.

At present, I've been at a funeral, and am pissed out of my mind, so this will have to be later.

If I can ever understand why a horse regularly beats others in top events, I shall have got it made, and will ne'er again bother going on so-called vdw (G. Hall?) threads.

I have not the slightest interest in discussing things of the past - including the make-believe - but, if I ever manage to answer your fundamental question, there will be no looking back.

Actually, I feel you may over-estimate my ability to grasp this crucial point mentioned, but, nevertheless, I will tackle the problem, and, try my best to overcome it.

As to who said what, who did what, I'll leave that to others, as I have zero interest in that.

If I do manage to crack it, I'll be eternally grateful to you and will proceed to millionaire status.
Onward and upward!