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VDW VDW-Bets

Cheers Leodis Leodis interesting answers. I was surprised that it chose Ascot although fair dues its explanation made sense. Re only using previous course form i keep having the thought that i should try this but likewise keep dismissing it. Perhaps a paper proving might be the answer. :)
 
Believe it or not mick mick it comes up with wolverhampton being the easiest course to win at with both lingfield and kempton all weather making three all weather courses.
But i think that is because they do get more fav winners and it could be the complete reason why does not suit your style.
 
Newmarket 7.40

Rogue Dynasty

Is a list horse for me, very short time until the race, so hopefully she does the business.

RD ran okay beaten by a money horse that had just got a handicap mate,, not much you can do about that.
 
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15.35 Nwb

Witness Stand ran close to a group 2 par LTO and should at least make the places.

20/80 @6.8/2.32
 
I think beckett could be expecting a lot more from KINGS GAMBLE now stepped up to 7 fur again in this race and i think the 7/4 cover bet 5 places could be a steal in this.
 
14.25 Yrk

Not a particularly good course for a front runner at this distance, but I think Trawlerman should go well again

win @2.02
 
Sweet William
Doncaster 3.0

This looks like a straightforward conventional VDW selection, previous winner of the race,been running well recently , behind another VDW good thing last time out. I think most form students can see the merits of Sweet William, all he has to do now is win!!

I hope you don't mind me posting it here Leodis.
 
Sweet William
Doncaster 3.0

This looks like a straightforward conventional VDW selection, previous winner of the race,been running well recently , behind another VDW good thing last time out. I think most form students can see the merits of Sweet William, all he has to do now is win!!

I hope you don't mind me posting it here Leodis.

Not at all , T Thomas . I posted it up on the Ratings for Value thread

Wd !
 
A pretty competitive day's racing, but also quite bleak imo.

The old September adage of not betting during the month springs to mind.The change in ground conditions, means that the trainers, have to think a little bit harder, hopefully.

Ayr 1.50
 Almeric


This looks an almost ideal scenario for Almeric off the course since April, and a very lightly raced 3 year old. An owner/breeder profile, with Selkirk the soft ground specialist in the dams line.
The sire Study of Man seems to produce progeny, that do best on ground with cut in it .

Almeric made his debut over 1 mile as a 2 yr old at Sandown in October.

It is also a plus to note that Almeric has a champion stakes entry at Ascot next month
 
A pretty competitive day's racing, but also quite bleak imo.

The old September adage of not betting during the month springs to mind.The change in ground conditions, means that the trainers, have to think a little bit harder, hopefully.

Ayr 1.50
 Almeric


This looks an almost ideal scenario for Almeric off the course since April, and a very lightly raced 3 year old. An owner/breeder profile, with Selkirk the soft ground specialist in the dams line.
The sire Study of Man seems to produce progeny, that do best on ground with cut in it .

Almeric made his debut over 1 mile as a 2 yr old at Sandown in October.

It is also a plus to note that Almeric has a champion stakes entry at Ascot next month
Watching brief for me with regards Almeric, like the Pedigree and LTO Sectionals but will they want to give the horse a hard race if

CAVIAR HEIGHTS serves it up who also holds the same Grp Race Entry

Alemeric, trained by Andrew Balding, has been away from the track for a significant period due to a setback that ruled him out of his planned summer assignments, including the French Derby. He makes his return today after a 158-day absence, with his last race being a win in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April.




Despite the long break, the Balding team is confident he is ready to return to form. Alemeric had been a highly-regarded prospect, and his previous win in the Feilden Stakes has been boosted by the runner-up going on to win the Strensall Stakes. The longer trip in today's race is also expected to suit him.
 
Impressive T Thomas , missed the break and it was a strong gallop from the Start and Osin did well to coax him into the race and really battled in the closing stages to see off the the remaining closers

Executive Summary​



Almeric (GB) is a top-class 3-year-old colt with a profile that marks him as a legitimate contender for major middle-distance Group 1 races. His pedigree represents a superb blend of Japanese classic influence and one of Europe's most distinguished female families. This genetic potential is strongly validated by his progressive race record, culminating in a high-class Timeform rating of 115p, which indicates he is capable of significant further improvement. His Listed win and subsequent performances confirm he is a colt of the highest calibre.




Sire Analysis: Study of Man (IRE)​



Almeric's sire, Study of Man, is a French Derby (Prix du Jockey Club) winner who was rated a high-class 122 by Timeform. His pedigree is a potent combination of influences:

  • Sire Line: He is by the legendary Japanese champion Deep Impact, a son of Sunday Silence. Deep Impact is renowned for passing on exceptional class, stamina, and a blistering turn of foot. His influence is global, and he is one of the most important sires of the modern era.
  • Dam Line: Study of Man is out of Second Happiness, a daughter of the breed-shaping sire Storm Cat. This brings a powerful infusion of American speed, class, and precocity, a cross that has proven highly successful with Deep Impact.
As a stallion, Study of Man has made a promising start. From his first crops of racing age, he has produced 9 Black Type winners (5%) from 121 starters. His Average Earnings Index (AEI) of 1.42 indicates his progeny earn 42% more than the average, a strong signal of a successful young sire.




Dam & Female Family Analysis: Alvarita (GB)​



Almeric's dam, Alvarita, provides the foundation of European class and stamina that perfectly complements the sire line.

  • Broodmare Sire: She is by Selkirk, a champion miler who developed into an exceptional broodmare sire. Mares by Selkirk are highly sought after, having produced 96 Black Type winners. His daughters are known for passing on toughness, consistency, and class.
  • Female Family: This is arguably the strongest part of Almeric's pedigree. Alvarita is a daughter of the outstanding racemare Alborada, a dual winner of the Group 1 Champion Stakes. Alborada herself is part of Miss K. Rausing's elite "A" family, descending from the foundation mare Alruccaba. This family consistently produces top-class middle-distance performers. As Timeform's comments note, Almeric is from "one of the best middle-distance families in the stud book".



Pedigree Cross & Inbreeding​





Nicking​



The cross of Study of Man (and the wider Deep Impact line) with Selkirk mares has proven to be particularly potent. While the sample size is small, the statistics are remarkable:

  • Foals: 8
  • Winners: 4 (50%)
  • Black Type Winners: 2 (25%)
A 25% strike rate for Black Type winners from foals is exceptionally high and points to a powerful genetic affinity, or "nick," between these lines. Almeric is a clear product of this successful cross.



Inbreeding​



Almeric's pedigree features close and influential inbreeding that reinforces key ancestors:

  • Alzao (4S x 3D): This is close inbreeding to a high-class son of Lyphard. Alzao is the sire of Almeric's grandam (Alborada) and also appears in the dam line of his sire (via Wind in Her Hair), concentrating his class and stamina influence.
  • Lyphard (5S x 4D): By extension, Almeric is inbred to the great Northern Dancer son, Lyphard, a source of stamina and quality.
  • Northern Dancer (5S x 5S x 5D): This ubiquitous but important inbreeding pattern concentrates the genes of the 20th century's most dominant sire through three different, high-class sons (Storm Bird, Nureyev, and Lyphard).


Dosage & Aptitude​



Almeric's Dosage Profile provides a quantitative look at his aptitude:

  • Dosage Profile: 3-0-7-2-0
  • Dosage Index (DI): 1.18
  • Center of Distribution (CD): +0.33
This profile indicates a balance of speed and stamina, with a slight tilt towards speed. The DI of 1.18 and the positive CD are ideal for a modern classic horse, suggesting peak effectiveness at distances from 1 mile to 1½ miles (1600m - 2400m). This aligns perfectly with his race performances and future targets like the Prix du Jockey Club.




Performance & Timeform Analysis​



Almeric's race record shows a classic pattern of progressive improvement with each start, both in distance and quality of competition.

Race DateTrackDistanceRatingComment
18/09/2024Sandown8f83+A promising debut. Finished with running left, indicating more distance was needed.
12/10/2024York~8f92+Won his maiden, displaying a good attitude on heavy ground. Noted as being "1¼m bound".
15/04/2025Newmarket9f113+Won a Class 1 Listed race, showing much-improved form. Looked well-suited by the stiffer test.
20/09/2025Ayr10f124A dominant victory in a Class 1 race. Showed a potent turn of foot to win easily.
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His latest performance earned a Timeform rating of 124, which is solid Group 1 level form. The 'p' attached to his previous rating of 115 indicates Timeform believed he was capable of reaching this level, and he has now delivered on that promise. His development has been seamless, and he has proven effective on a range of ground conditions from Good to Heavy.




Conclusion​



Almeric (GB) is a colt of immense potential. His elite pedigree, which combines the class of Deep Impact with the profound stamina and quality of one of Europe's premier female families, provided a blueprint for success. His racecourse performances have systematically confirmed this genetic promise. He has progressed with each step up in distance and class, and his latest victory establishes him as a genuine Group 1 performer. Given his profile, he remains an exciting prospect for the top middle-distance races in Europe.
 
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