VDW VDW-Bets

[Leodis]

I thought it might be a good idea to have a concentrated place for people to post any VDW bets they may have and encourage some collaboration in winner finding.

 

[Chesham]

I thought it might be a good idea to have a concentrated place for people to post any VDW bets they may have and encourage some collaboration in winner finding.

See

VDW - VDW Tipping Thread

 

[Leodis]

15.00 Dnc

Runner	Con	Ability	EB	Class	Erin
Kinross 9-6	3.5	223	92	0	9
Shouldvebeenaring 9-6	8.2	220	78	0	11
Lead Artist 9-2	6.2	209	92	-4	6
Pogo 9-6	2.0	206	51	0	11
Poet Master 9-9	4.6	191	97	-6	8
Al Shabab Storm 9-2	6.3	184	85	-12	3

A no bet for me, but may be helpful for beginners to understand why.

Lead Artist is the probable. However it won the LTO race, on the same weight as the key horse. The key horse was going up in class (-19). LA was up (-5), so an easy challenge at level weights.

LA is stepping down in trip today and I would have preferred most of the running on a round track for its first attempt. Today is on a flat, straight 7f.

One to watch.

 

[Leodis]

See

VDW - VDW Tipping Thread

Thanks Chesham, I thought I saw one somewhere.

 

[nagwa]

Thanks Chesham

 

[Kraldrew]

Leodis How did you calculate the Ability rating did you use all winnings or just the Stakes winnings please . I have Shouldhavebeenaring the strongest probable but down on ability

 

[Leodis]

Hi K Kraldrew,

Although I follow the VDW approach; the Consistency, Ability, Class and Erin are rated by my own methods.

I have included the Eric Bowers (EB) column, which is basically 100-(EB formula).

Highest rating = best for the consistency column.

Regards

 

[Kraldrew]

Ah ok thanks Leodis i was just wondering if it was just Stakes Races or Handicaps also (Prominent King)

 

[Leodis]

K Kraldrew,

It doesn't really matter how we compile our shortlist of horses, whether it is using the exact mechanical procedure or a variant. The important part is how we carry the list through the 'hard work' process. Nothing has changed in that department.

Regards

 

[Kraldrew]

No i understand that and have been putting the work in have more or less worked out handicaps however have never tried a Stakes race was trying to see if it was the same in Stakes

 

[Leodis]

A good result for the top-3 ability

 

[Leodis]

I will continue to post in this thread, as the other is hidden away, unless Bobajobber or ArkRoyal wish to move it.

Regards

 

[Leodis]

15:42 Ayr

Runner	Con	Ability	EB	Class	Erin
Oviedo 10-0	1.9	196	96	2	14
Have Secret 9-3	1.5	181	84	-7	6
Marhaba The Champ 9-6	0.0	176	76	2	17
Bennetot 9-5	2.8	174	88	0	12

Have Secret - no capability issues.

LTO it came second, giving weight (8lb) to the J2nd F, whilst dropping in class [+9].

The only slight negative with the race is that it got beat by a KH rising in class [-4].

Furthermore, it is up 7lb in class today.


Oviedo could be the danger if it manages to overcome the poor Erin. Plenty of if's and but's though with a few of them.

One to watch for me.

Regards

 

[Kraldrew]

​	​	Ability​	LW A/OR​	​	​	Best A/OR in 3​	​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Monsieur Kodi​	​	45​	83​	​	​	77 -1.5l​	​
Roundhay Park​	​	25​	76​	​	70​	73 -2.75​	​
Knicks​	​	34​	80​	​	​	79 -10l​	​
Danzan​	​	25​	74​	​	​	73 -1.75​	​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​	​

 

[Kraldrew]

1615 Ayr Monsieur Kodi Looks good for this one

 

[Michael231]

I take it you don't put the weight higher or lower in this or the last race info because it's on the forum and not on your computer.
Not knocking it as you know what your doing.
Just that I'll have to go to the racing post for the info cheeky I know.

 

[Kraldrew]

I am using the best RPR for the last 3 races and then do the ratings he ran in a 77 rated race and this is 7lbs less he has 6lb more on his back theoretically 1lb in And has won carrying 10.2

Hope you understand lol

The other thing i have noticed is that the maximum consistency rating of the races i have analyzed has been 20 so 21 and above can be discounted until something comes along and changes that

 

[Michael231]

Hi K Kraldrew
20,21 Would that be due to horses running over the wrong distance in previous races.
Also have you found a common denominator with the trainers where they place their runners before the win, that might be worth looking at. I would go on further with this but am busy with helping in the garden and family.
Roll on the rain so I can stay in.

 

[Kraldrew]

I dont think so on Fri 13th of sept Darkness had a consistency of 19 however he was 2nd top Ability and the key race had an avg OR of 94 from the race i took as his key race Highest RPR avg the OR over the same distance as the race he won went up 2lb

Mostawwa the day before highest avg race 18 consistency up 5 lb 8f to 8.5f
Miller Smith all lined up with this horse top Ability Top A/OR race and 10 consistency 9.13 to 11.5 in jump jockeys flat race 12f to 12f

Zarzyni consistency 20 went up from 9.11 to 9.12 all top 3 avg O/R same distance

 

[Kraldrew]

Hi K Kraldrew
20,21 Would that be due to horses running over the wrong distance in previous races.
Also have you found a common denominator with the trainers where they place their runners before the win, that might be worth looking at. I would go on further with this but am busy with helping in the garden and family.
Roll on the rain so I can stay in.

Sorry just read your message properly yes a couple did run over the wrong distance