• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

VDW Van Der Speil

You could add one more to that Chesham Chesham at these scottish tracks goldie knows them inside out and he targets certain horses to certain tracks to win so i would add if its possible winners at that track too.
 
You can use SP /Runner Ratio to interpret in different way


Integrating the SP/Runners Ratio


This new column brilliantly exposes market manipulation and hidden value when cross-referenced with our Weighted KNN targets:


The Over-Bet Illusion: Look at Klassleader (0.04 ➔ 0.29 ➔ 0.19) and Plage De Havre (0.36 ➔ 0.50 ➔ 0.35). The market has been relentlessly pounding them below 1.00 relative to field size. They are public darlings. Yet our KNN and Tfig data proved their physical engines were flattered by slow paces.


The Hidden Value (Paddy The Squire): Our elite KNN match, Paddy The Squire, has been ignored by the market LTO (1.38 ratio). Despite clocking a massive 105 Tfig off a violently fast pace, the public treated him as an outsider.


The Upward Mobility (Elsass & Sportingsilvermine): Both of these horses are actively dropping below the 1.00 threshold in their recent races, indicating smart money is starting to catch on to their underlying mechanical efficiency just as they peak.
 
As mentioned on some of my previous posts. I always carry out a post race audit with any race that I have been involved in, before the gates opened. Unlike some who try to backfit and make it a VDW Class/Form horse after the race has been won.

When you have analysed the race pre race, then Win or lose you will learn where you analysed correctly if It’s a winning analysis and even if it loses where it all went wrong. From this you will learn plenty more for the future

This is the Post Race Results analysis for the ONC which I analysed and posted before the Gates had opened

Post-Race Mechanical Audit (Newmarket 3.15)​

  • The Pace Reality (A Complete Meltdown): The RaceIQ data confirms this was a violently fast race. A 9.9/10 Time Index with an unbelievable -4.71s Vs Par. This was a brutal test of stamina and Kinematic Yield.
  • The Klassleader Fraud (7th): The system's number one fade was flawlessly executed. The market backed him down to 2.68 BSP (6/5f), but the KNN algorithm warned us his previous elite FSP was an illusion created by a crawling pace. Forced into a -4.71s furnace today, his engine completely melted. He was "off the bridle long way out" and finished a well-beaten 7th.
  • 1st: Sportingsilvermine (101.07% FSP): Our High KNN target absorbed the brutal fractions and produced a career-best performance. Because his biomechanical efficiency was proven off fast paces, he had the oxygen to sustain a >100% finishing speed while the front-runners collapsed.
  • 2nd: Paddy The Squire (101.40% FSP): Our Elite KNN target did exactly what the matrix projected. He survived the inferno and ran a massive race to secure the exacta. The system correctly identified the two best mechanical profiles in the field, and they finished 1-2.

💰 Bankroll Update: The Matrix Cashes​

We explicitly faded the false favorite and spread our stakes across the three verified KNN targets. We locked Sportingsilvermine at 16.50.

  • Total Race Stake: 10.00 points
  • Sportingsilvermine Return (2.00 pts @ 16.50): 33.00 points
  • Net Race Profit: +23.00 points
Total Project Bankroll: +122.92 points ➔ +145.92 points
Click to expand...
The 3.50 tactical anomaly dented us slightly, but the 3.15 Old Newton Cup proves the absolute superiority of the Weighted Euclidean Distance model. When the pace gets hot, raw visual form disintegrates and only the true mechanical engines survive. The bankroll is at an all-time project high.
 
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