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VDW Van Der Speil

Oscar Finn said:
Chesham Chesham
If you don't mind me asking, what conclusions did you draw? Do trainers still use the same route to races now as they did then given the generational change in the trainers and the additional races available?
Click to expand...


Trainers often use a Trail Race in the lead up to a target race

I have 22 Big Race Target Races in my portfolio (Flat Race & NH ) and a list of Trainers who target those races

IMG_4457.jpeg

Also a list of Trail Races that are over 60 races that I have built up . They don’t always get triggered for an alert as no qualifiers , but q]with a large list saved in my trends allowance in HRB they crop up quite frequently on big race days

a few examples

IMG_4460.jpegIMG_4459.jpegIMG_4458.jpeg
 
Very quiet on the VDW front these days . The problem is that many have tried to replicate the mythical 80% win strike rate and get disillusioned. That’s why VDW threads quickly diminish.

May I suggest instead study

IMG_0075.jpeg

Until Recently I had never given Eric’s suggestions my full attention. Now I fully understand what he was conveying, it is a brilliant way to focus on the correct races to focus on and reduce a field of 10 runners or more in a handicap down to just a few . The book was published in 1990 and providing you us OR’s instead of weight, (WFA complicates the weight suggestion) The method of reducing the number of runners is as accurate as it was back in 1990.
Unlike VDW you are not being asked to study after time race examples, you just need to try it out for yourself to see how it works out.
One proviso is that The Handicap races that you study should be balanced. Below is an example of a balanced handicap


To break the 5.20 Newmarket field down into Eric Bowers’ three-tier structure, we split the 13-pound spread (from the Top OR of 94 down to the Bottom OR of 81) into three relatively even bands.


Here is exactly where each horse sits within the class structure of this balanced handicap:


🥇 The Top Tier: "Above Class" (OR 91 – 94)


These are the class horses of the race. They have proven the most ability in the past, but the handicapper is forcing them to carry the heaviest weights to give the rest of the field a chance.


• Havana Pusey (94)


• Percys Lad (94)


• God Of War (94)


• Jumby (91)


• Morte Point (91)


• Royal Velvet (91)


🥈 The Middle Tier: "In Class" (OR 86 – 90)


This is the core of the handicap. These horses sit right on or around the mathematical midpoint (87.5) and median (89). They are carrying average weight against horses of very similar current ability.


• Storm Free (90)


• Jordan Electrics (90)


• Dapper Guest (89)


• Sujet (89)


• Goldmoyne (88)


• Crimson Spirit (87)


• Gangsta Man (87)


• Huscal (86)


• Eminency (86)


🥉 The Bottom Tier: "Below Class" (OR 81 – 83)


These are the lightweights. Mathematically, they are the lowest-rated horses in the race, meaning they are stepping up in class to face tougher opposition. However, they are receiving significant weight from the horses in the top tier as compensation.


• Bold Impact (83)


• Dragon Leader (82)


• Physique (81)


With the tiers mapped out, the next step is to calculate the final Bowers Ratings using their live betting odds to see which of these horses mathematically separate themselves from the pack!




Forget 80% strike rates but if you are realistic you should find enough success to suit most punters

IMG_0098.jpegIMG_0099.jpeg
 
Last edited:
"The problem is that many have tried to replicate the mythical 80% win strike rate and get disillusioned."

I would have used "claimed" rather than "mythical", but otherwise I suspect that that is spot on.

It does however beg one important question. Is the problem VDW's approach, or the lack of hard work and ability on the part of those who have tried to apply it and become disillusioned?

Happily, Bowers, Fineform and numerous others (some like Colin Davey and Jock Bingham drawing on aspects of VDW), right up to Dave Dave's recently published book on aw racing, offer thoughtful alternative approaches. Less happily, on the limited evidence available from selections posted before the races concerned, none comes within a country mile of the strike rate Lee proved he achieved from a full(ish) understanding of VDW..
 
The Balanced Handicap was posted the Night Before Racing and the Blanks filled in Pre Race the night before racings

The Balanced Handicap that I sent you last night with the Blanks filled in was posted last night .
Using Bowers Ratings a 18 runner Raced was reduced to just 6

The winner Royal Velvet was one of two Short Listed whose RPR was on Par with their OR and also Race Class 3 Par

All 6 could were available to Back for a profit on a 10 point outlay\

IMG_0093.jpeg



IMG_0092.jpeg

The 7f trip on the Rowley Mile is unique, especially in large fields. The Timeform pace forecast is explicitly "Very Strong," meaning the leaders will likely engage in a cut-throat battle. Cross-referencing the Timeform In-Running Pace Symbols (IPS) and the detailed RaceIQ sprinting metrics, we can map out a brutal pace scenario:

  • The Pace Forcers: Goldmoyne (IPS 2, 1, 1) and Morte Point (IPS 2, 3, 2) map to press the issue aggressively. Goldmoyne made all in his last two starts (0-20mph in 2.97s, 2.75s). Morte Point raced prominently to win his last two.
  • The Prominent Stalkers: Storm Free (IPS 3, 2, 3) and Gangsta Man (IPS 4, 4, 3) generally map to sit just behind the early speed.
  • The Deep Closers (The Beneficiaries): Royal Velvet (IPS 3, 4, 5l) and Huscal (IPS 4r, 4, 4r) are hard-wired to be dropped out. Huscal's RaceIQ metrics show extreme closing speed (Fin Spd % of 103.04%, 107.39%, 107.38%), meaning if the front-runners collapse, he will be flying late.

The Upgraded Master Matrix (HRB CCR Rectified)​

Here is the permanently locked-in tactical master matrix for our elite 6-horse retained field. It integrates the live-odds Bowers Rating, your explicit HRB Class Ceiling Rating (CCR) derived from the median-length formula, the algorithmic PR%, full TFR/Tfig splits, detailed RaceIQ metrics, and the full Timeform comments.

HorseBowersHRB CCR (Last 3)PR% (Last 3)TFR / TfigDetailed RaceIQ Metrics (Last 3)Full Timeform Comments & IPS (Most Recent First)
7 Storm Free9.087.5, 79.5, 84.8
(Improving / Class test)		100%, 100%, 50%TFR:99, 93, 90
Tfig:98, 81, 84		Top Spd:42.19mph, 39.96mph, 41.77mph
Fin Spd %:93.85%, 105.30%, 97.75%
0-20mph:2.43s, 2.41s, 2.59s		IPS: 3, 2, 3
1. is proving most progressive and became the third next-time-out winner to emerge from Kempton... led over 1f out, asserted last ½f.
2. cementing his positive profile for handicaps and proving just as effective at this trip.
3. looked to have a bit to find making his handicap debut after 4 months off and did so.
6 Royal Velvet11.580.8, 83.5, 83.3
(Form declining / Maxed out ceiling)		0%, 100%, 0%TFR:93, 100, 78
Tfig:93, 98, 61		Top Spd:40.53mph, 41.19mph, 42.37mph
Fin Spd %:103.06%, 101.04%, 100.90%
0-20mph:2.63s, 2.57s, 3.03s		IPS: 3, 4, 5l
1. found things happening quicker than ideal on a first try at 6f; in touch, outpaced 2f out.
2. wasted no time putting it behind her, this third win of the campaign showing her to be better than ever.
3. was a warm order after her win here last time, but she was below form, turning in a lacklustre display.
5 Morte Point12.589.0, 83.0, 88.7
(Highly consistent upper-80s ceiling)		100%, 100%, 80%TFR:97, 96, 93
Tfig:98, 82, 86		Top Spd:39.90mph, 41.04mph, 40.63mph
Fin Spd %:100.10%, 100.54%, 97.92%
0-20mph:2.82s, 2.19s, 2.86s		IPS: 2, 3, 2
1. made it 3 wins from 4 starts... emerging with plenty of credit given he was close to a sound pace.
2. has been in good heart and duly capitalised on the drop in grade... quickened to lead inside final furlong.
3. found only one too good bidding to follow up from a 4 lb higher mark than at Newbury.
13 Gangsta Man14.589.9, 85.5, 67.5
(Bouncing back / Suspect stamina)		100%, 80%, 0%TFR:95, 94, 79
Tfig:85, 67, -		Top Spd:41.29mph, 38.94mph, 37.94mph
Fin Spd %:98.30%, 104.39%, 94.97%
0-20mph:2.88s, 3.13s, 2.69s		IPS: 4, 4, 3
1. ran really well dropped back to sprinting after 6 months off, doing plenty of hard work to get the lead only to be mugged late on.
2. clearly takes his racing well and produced a career best back down at 7f.
3. shaped as if still in good form but the step back up in trip wasn't any help to him.
11 Goldmoyne15.588.0, 78.2, 73.1
(Improving but tactically vulnerable)		50%, 100%, 100%TFR:95, 95, 94
Tfig:79, 67, 89		Top Spd:38.65mph, 40.69mph, 40.21mph
Fin Spd %:98.82%, 108.94%, 100.94%
0-20mph:2.57s, 2.97s, 2.75s		IPS: 2, 1, 1
1. continued his remarkable season... carrying all of his all-weather improvement back to turf in this stronger grade.
2. recording his fourth success in a row under a penalty/returned to 1m, albeit with the benefit of the run of things in front.
3. goes from strength to strength, this third consecutive win... forced pace.
🟢 14 Huscal 🟢15.581.8, 82.5, 81.5
(Unexposed ceiling / Perfect pace map)		100%, 50%, 100%TFR:93, 89, 90
Tfig:87, 70, 78		Top Spd:40.57mph, 40.86mph, 41.26mph
Fin Spd %:103.04%, 107.39%, 107.38%
0-20mph:2.91s, 2.78s, 3.15s		IPS: 4r, 4, 4r
1. has got his act together of late and again shaped well, is threatening to come good soon... finished well.
2. giving the impression he was unlucky not to finish closer... keeping on when short of room late on.
3. he ran up to his best on his all-weather debut, making up a lot of ground.
 
”It does however beg one important question. Is the problem VDW's approach, or the lack of hard work and ability on the part of those who have tried to apply it and become disillusioned?”

Now if someone who thinks he has the ability and put in the hard work can post a VDW in similar depth, not I “I think So and so horse has all the markings of a VDW horse” That would be good . I can’t see that happening but worth asking.

Yesterday on Balanced Handicap stood out. It was a Class 3 Sprint, reduced from 14 runners down to 5 as the starting point
 
exploits.

HorseBowersHRB CCR (Last 3)PR% (Last 3)TFR / TfigDetailed RaceIQ Metrics (Last 3)Full Timeform Comments & IPS (Most Recent First)
9 Simplify13.3377.2, N/A, N/A
(Progressive / Speed test winner)		100%, 100%, 80%TFR:93, 86, 69
Tfig:93, 79, 65		Top Spd:40.96mph, 41.44mph, 40.50mph
Fin Spd %:103.38%, 102.59%, 96.56%
0-20mph:2.51s, 2.49s, -		IPS: 2, 1r, 1
1. well positioned and proving suited by this speed test... kicked on over 1f out, worn down gradually.
2. improved to get off the mark... forced pace, shaken up 2f out, stayed on well.
3. did well under the circumstances, going off too hard under a change of tactics.
🟢 8 Mo Of Cairo🟢14.078.9, N/A, N/A
(Elite 2yo form / Lethal drop to 5f)		100%, 100%, 50%TFR:88, 79, 68
Tfig:82, 80, 60		Top Spd:40.55mph, 38.50mph, 41.25mph
Fin Spd %:96.42%, 99.38%, 97.27%
0-20mph:2.82s, 2.79s, 3.00s		IPS: 1k, 2k, 1
1. shaped really well switched to a nursery, burning off all bar a strong finisher... he's got bundles of speed and will be just as effective back at 5f.
2. made no mistake at short odds this time, no knocking his finishing effort back down at 5f.
3. failed to progress from debut, finishing quite tamely.
10 The Lost Sock14.075.5, 71.8, N/A
(Pace collapse target / Maxed out?)		50%, 0%, 100%TFR:89, 49, 88
Tfig:91, 39, 84		Top Spd:40.94mph, 39.98mph, 43.08mph
Fin Spd %:104.49%, 101.98%, 101.19%
0-20mph:2.53s, 2.62s, 2.28s		IPS: 3, 4p, 2
1. settled better than on return and got back on the up returned to 5f... went third inside final furlong.
2. proved to be a disappointment, even allowing for him not settling out wide.
3. has progressed with each start and got off the mark fairly comfortably.
🟢 5 Merlier🟢14.5N/A, N/A, N/A
(Pure Ghost / Blinding acceleration)		100%, 100%, 80%TFR:89, 85, 74
Tfig:81, 42, 48		Top Spd:41.29mph, 41.28mph, 41.55mph
Fin Spd %:106.72%, 100.96%, 104.04%
0-20mph:2.05s, 2.88s, 3.03s		IPS: 1, 1, 4s
1. didn't have as much in hand this time but followed up his Newcastle success with the run of things from the front.
2. improved on that form to get off the mark in decisive fashion.
3. showed plenty amidst inexperience on debut, coming back again at the line.
4 Daneh Of Dandy18.076.3, 81.4, 78.7
(Structurally maxed out / Exposed)		0%, 0%, 0%TFR:84, 70, 83
Tfig:68, 61, 63		Top Spd:40.72mph, 41.62mph, 42.51mph
Fin Spd %:105.55%, 92.63%, 97.95%
0-20mph:3.01s, 2.46s, 2.47s		IPS: 2, 2k, 1
1. matched the pick of juvenile form without finding any improvement.
2. shaped better than the distance beaten suggests... not seeing it out having raced closer to the pace than ideal.
3. ran about as well as could be expected, her exertions just telling very late on.
 
Posted Pre Race

I thought the initial Bowers Trawl would leave more runners to start the next stage. However only 7 Runners Retained from 32 😳
In a race as brutal and grueling as the Grand National, using the exact HRB median-length formula is absolutely critical because it exposes whether a horse is genuinely capable of running to the required 155+ ceiling, or if they are just picking up pieces in high-grade races.

Let's wipe the slate clean and apply your exact formula to the 7 retained runners.

The Upgraded Master Matrix (HRB CCR Rectified)​

HorseBowersHRB CCR (Last 3)PR% (Last 3)TFR / TfigDetailed RaceIQ Metrics (Last 3)Full Timeform Comments & IPS (Most Recent First)
1 I Am Maximus8.5140.3, 163.5, 86.3
(Massive peak, huge drop-offs)		0%, 100%, 0%TFR:150, 162, 80
Tfig:134, 139, 76		Top Spd:32.35mph, 33.45mph, 32.41mph
Fin Spd %:96.72%, 102.94%, 93.26%
Lgths Gained Jmp:-12.03L, -4.81L, -17.06L		IPS: 4o, 5r, 5x
1. followed a good run... with a below-par one.
2. went a long way to proving he's still the same force.
3. jumping tentatively and always behind.
4 Grangeclare West14.0159.5, 91.1, 159.7
(Proven elite 160 ceiling)		100%, 0%, 100%TFR:158, 103, 158
Tfig:102, 98, 147		Top Spd:31.50mph, 32.42mph, 33.20mph
Fin Spd %:111.75%, 87.20%, 102.50%
Lgths Gained Jmp:+9.63L, -13.98L, +0.65L		IPS: 4x, 4, 4
1. winning a recognised trial for the biggest staying handicap of all.
2. wasn't in the same form... struggling 3 out.
3. step up markedly on his comeback.
22 Jagwar19.5143.5, 134.8, 138.3
(Consistent, but ceiling exposed)		100%, 100%, 100%TFR:158, 156, 148
Tfig:154, 152, 140		Top Spd:36.30mph, 36.31mph, 35.86mph
Fin Spd %:104.53%, 109.37%, 108.79%
Lgths Gained Jmp:+5.15L, +6.63L, +2.12L		IPS: 4x, 3k, 2
1. continues to eke out improvement... remarkable effort to get involved.
2. has returned with successive defeats.
3. not clear run behind front rank before 2 out.
9 Monty's Star24.0139.6, 157.2, 102.0
(Inconsistent ceiling)		0%, 0%, 0%TFR:150, 156, 129
Tfig:152, 152, 134		Top Spd:32.75mph, 32.81mph, 32.69mph
Fin Spd %:94.78%, 102.20%, 98.27%
Lgths Gained Jmp:+4.41L, +1.99L, +2.47L		IPS: 2, 3ro, 4
1. attempts to win the race ultimately backfired.
2. had one of the better days he's mustered at Grade 1 level.
3. found defying such a lofty mark... no easier a task.
13 Iroko25.0115.9, 158.8, 143.5
(Big peak two runs back)		0%, 100%, 100%TFR:137, 159, 146
Tfig:153, 162, 75		Top Spd:34.54mph, 34.09mph, -
Fin Spd %:96.51%, 114.19%, -
Lgths Gained Jmp:-3.52L, +0.48L, -		IPS: 3x, 2, 2
1. warmed up for another crack at the National in wholly unconvincing fashion.
2. finally gained a second win over fences.
3. essentially ridden with an eye on the future.
33 Johnnywho26.0144.5, 134.6, 144.5
(Consistent, ceiling maxed in 140s)		100%, 0%, 100%TFR:152, 140, 146
Tfig:148, 99, 133		Top Spd:35.81mph, 32.14mph, 33.34mph
Fin Spd %:104.06%, 105.43%, 102.19%
Lgths Gained Jmp:+4.13L, -7.67L, -4.45L		IPS: 3r, 4, 3R
1. is building up a tremendous CV in these big staying handicaps.
2. the way he hung under pressure up the straight was rather concerning.
3. couldn't have shaped much better.
🟢 31 Panic Attack 🟢30.5135.7, 136.0, 149.5
(Huge peak, elite jumper)		0%, 100%, 100%TFR:140, 136, 145
Tfig:140, 136, 132		Top Spd:35.99mph, 32.82mph, 33.03mph
Fin Spd %:101.74%, 105.93%, 108.89%
Lgths Gained Jmp:+5.69L, +24.48L, +25.00L		IPS: 2j, 1KJ, 3k
1. had her winning run ended, just tapped for foot back down in trip.
2. had a lot in hand on paper and won in a canter.
3. answering in the positive the questions ov
 
Here is an analysis of the provided data to reverse-engineer Lee’s betting method. Looking at the "backed" races (the latest date for each horse) compared to their three prior "build-up" runs, a highly distinct, multi-layered strategy emerges.


Here are the core pillars of Lee's method:


1. The Absolute Rule: The Weight Drop


The most striking and universal pattern across every single bet is a reduction in weight. In the targeted race, every horse carried less physical weight in the saddle than they did in their immediate prior start. * Captain Gerrard: Dropped 6 lbs (from 9-6 to 9-0).


• Byron: Dropped 7 lbs (from 9-0 to 8-7).


• Lochbuie: Dropped 5 lbs (from 9-7 to 9-2).


• Persian Waters: Dropped 11 lbs (from 10-11 to 10-0).


• Top Dirham: Dropped 11 lbs (from 9-5 to 8-8).


• The Illies : Dropped 1 lb (fine-tuning an already low weight).


Lee clearly uses the build-up races to monitor horses running under heavy burdens, waiting to strike precisely when the handicapper or race conditions grant them significant physical relief.


2. "Ahead of the Handicapper" (RPR > OR)


Lee targets horses whose underlying performance metrics are heavily outpacing their Official Rating (OR). During the build-up races, these horses frequently posted Racing Post Ratings (RPR) that were significantly higher than their OR, signaling they had "well in" marks waiting to be exploited.


• Lochbuie: In the race prior to the bet, he ran to an RPR of 97 off an OR of 86 (+11).


• The Illies: Two races prior, he ran to an RPR of 104 off an OR of 82 (+22), and in the race prior, an RPR of 101 off 89 (+12).


• Persian Waters: Three races prior, ran to an RPR of 130 off an OR of 120 (+10).


The method involves finding a horse whose true capability (RPR) is hidden or legally masked from the official handicapper.


3. Exploiting the "Forgivable Blip"


A fascinating sub-pattern in Lee's method is backing horses immediately following a poor performance to secure better odds.


• Byron: Finished 8th in his prior start.


• Persian Waters: Finished 8th in his prior start.


• Top Dirham: Finished 8th in his prior start.


In all three cases, the "poor" run was highly forgivable because they were either carrying massive weight or stepping into deep water (e.g., Byron running in a Group 1, Persian Waters in a Group 3). Lee ignores the raw finishing position of the prior race, recognizing it as a tactical prep run that masks the horse's form and triggers the necessary weight/class drop for the target race.


4. Tactical Class Drops and Peak Conditions


When Lee isn't backing a progressive horse on a hot streak (like Lochbuie or The Illies), he is meticulously targeting class drops following tough assignments.


• Byron was dropped from Group 1 company down to a Group 2, finding significantly calmer waters while simultaneously shedding 7 lbs.


• Persian Waters was dropped from a fiercely competitive Group 3 Handicap Hurdle down to a standard Class 2 Handicap Hurdle, shedding 11 lbs in the process.


Summary of the Method


Lee’s system is a classic, highly disciplined Handicap/Condition Exploitation method. He tracks horses showing hidden upside (RPR > OR), waits for them to perhaps put in a misleadingly poor run in the wrong class or under top weight, and then pulls the trigger the moment they are given a lighter physical weight and an easier assignment.
 
5.20 Newmarket, 16/04/26. Top five on ability.

Dragon Leader: AR 607, form status y, won over distance n, won on going, y, won on course type y, weight okay y.
Physique: 304, n, y, n, y, y
Sujet 283, n, n, y, ?, y
Jumby 239, n, y, n, n, y
Royal Velvet 168, y, y, y, y, y.

VDW 102 (the 28/03/81 "Spells It All Out" article (VDW 101), plus the additions shown in the Roushayd and Pegwell Bay evaluations) narrows to two.

VDW 103 (VDW 102 with a nuanced approach to calculating ARs on DuckandDive DuckandDive lines) narrows to one, Dragon Leader having not won in 2024, 2025 or, so far, 2026.

Lee was, generally speaking, working on VDW 102 (his posts specifically comment on the additions the Roushayd and other illustrations in "Systematic Betting" made to the 28/03/81 approach). I am not yet clear how, if at all, he modified the VDW 101 approach to calculating ability ratings. Personally, I have found for Flat handicaps adjustment on DuckandDive lines takes better account of age-related regression.
 
The difference is that my example for Royal Velvet

was posted pre race with regards Royal Velvet

Pick pre race J Jenny with full evaluation and I will carry out the same using Bowers .
I know you like sprints = Fine by me as Long as it is 10 runners and more and a balanced handicap .

To make things easier when the next suitable Sprint Handicap is line up I will post the race on this thread. Nothing tomorrow . Are you agreeable to join in
 
Chesham said:
exploits.

HorseBowersHRB CCR (Last 3)PR% (Last 3)TFR / TfigDetailed RaceIQ Metrics (Last 3)Full Timeform Comments & IPS (Most Recent First)
9 Simplify13.3377.2, N/A, N/A
(Progressive / Speed test winner)		100%, 100%, 80%TFR:93, 86, 69
Tfig:93, 79, 65		Top Spd:40.96mph, 41.44mph, 40.50mph
Fin Spd %:103.38%, 102.59%, 96.56%
0-20mph:2.51s, 2.49s, -		IPS: 2, 1r, 1
1. well positioned and proving suited by this speed test... kicked on over 1f out, worn down gradually.
2. improved to get off the mark... forced pace, shaken up 2f out, stayed on well.
3. did well under the circumstances, going off too hard under a change of tactics.
🟢 8 Mo Of Cairo🟢14.078.9, N/A, N/A
(Elite 2yo form / Lethal drop to 5f)		100%, 100%, 50%TFR:88, 79, 68
Tfig:82, 80, 60		Top Spd:40.55mph, 38.50mph, 41.25mph
Fin Spd %:96.42%, 99.38%, 97.27%
0-20mph:2.82s, 2.79s, 3.00s		IPS: 1k, 2k, 1
1. shaped really well switched to a nursery, burning off all bar a strong finisher... he's got bundles of speed and will be just as effective back at 5f.
2. made no mistake at short odds this time, no knocking his finishing effort back down at 5f.
3. failed to progress from debut, finishing quite tamely.
10 The Lost Sock14.075.5, 71.8, N/A
(Pace collapse target / Maxed out?)		50%, 0%, 100%TFR:89, 49, 88
Tfig:91, 39, 84		Top Spd:40.94mph, 39.98mph, 43.08mph
Fin Spd %:104.49%, 101.98%, 101.19%
0-20mph:2.53s, 2.62s, 2.28s		IPS: 3, 4p, 2
1. settled better than on return and got back on the up returned to 5f... went third inside final furlong.
2. proved to be a disappointment, even allowing for him not settling out wide.
3. has progressed with each start and got off the mark fairly comfortably.
🟢 5 Merlier🟢14.5N/A, N/A, N/A
(Pure Ghost / Blinding acceleration)		100%, 100%, 80%TFR:89, 85, 74
Tfig:81, 42, 48		Top Spd:41.29mph, 41.28mph, 41.55mph
Fin Spd %:106.72%, 100.96%, 104.04%
0-20mph:2.05s, 2.88s, 3.03s		IPS: 1, 1, 4s
1. didn't have as much in hand this time but followed up his Newcastle success with the run of things from the front.
2. improved on that form to get off the mark in decisive fashion.
3. showed plenty amidst inexperience on debut, coming back again at the line.
4 Daneh Of Dandy18.076.3, 81.4, 78.7
(Structurally maxed out / Exposed)		0%, 0%, 0%TFR:84, 70, 83
Tfig:68, 61, 63		Top Spd:40.72mph, 41.62mph, 42.51mph
Fin Spd %:105.55%, 92.63%, 97.95%
0-20mph:3.01s, 2.46s, 2.47s		IPS: 2, 2k, 1
1. matched the pick of juvenile form without finding any improvement.
2. shaped better than the distance beaten suggests... not seeing it out having raced closer to the pace than ideal.
3. ran about as well as could be expected, her exertions just telling very late on.
Click to expand...
IMG_0103.jpegIMG_0089.jpeg

If you want to reduce down even more then I would suggest using Head To Heads

Again this was Pre Race

2. The Ultimate Elimination Validation (The Form Collapse) The H2H data acts as a brutal lie detector for our structurally vulnerable runners, confirming exactly why the engine flagged them:

  • Daneh Of Dandy: 211 days ago at Ayr, she was beaten by Hanney Girl at level weights. Hanney Girl was mathematically eliminated in Step 1 as a No-Hoper carrying a massive 29.0 liability. For a retained horse to be beaten by an eliminated horse is a terminal red flag. This perfectly aligns with her maxed-out CCRs. She is mathematically and historically exposed.
  • The Lost Sock: 259 days ago at Thirsk, he was beaten by Rikki Tiki Tavi. While he was giving 3 lbs that day, Rikki Tiki Tavi is another horse the Bowers algorithm completely purged (27.0 liability).
3. The Direct Clash: Simplify vs. The Lost Sock

  • The Wolverhampton Clash (18 Days Ago): Simplify beat The Lost Sock by 1.40 lengths.
  • The Weights Then: Simplify (9-4) received 3 lbs from The Lost Sock (9-7).
  • The Weights Today: They race at exact level weights (9-2 each).
  • The Verdict: This is a 3 lb weight swing in favour of The Lost Sock. Over 5 furlongs, 3 lbs equates to roughly one length. Mathematically, this brings them virtually dead level today. However, the RaceIQ metrics from that race note Simplify "kicked on" and was "always holding on," while The Lost Sock was "never near to challenge." Simplify remains the structurally superior horse.
 
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VDW's approach as exemplified by Lee's selections (and used in my own analyses) is founded on three considerations: ability, "form" and conditions (distance, going, course type and weight). Lee I think saw the first two as primary, as he once posted that by and large he wasn't troubled by the conditions issues, trusting that a trainer with a horse ready to win would not place it in a given race without being satisfied that conditions would be okay.

I am less trusting and check all three. All the data necessary and for understanding its context, is freely available from the Racing Post website, both before and after races (and of course it does not change, whatever the result). The issue isn't the quantity, or depth (whatever that means) of the data used; rather its relevance to the task in hand.
 
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