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Value ?

markfinn said:
The market could be formed but why allow it influence any opinion ? . It baffles me that the “wisdom of the crowd” is given the credence that it gets - if you rate the race and price up your horses on that % table - then it’s up to raters skill or lack of it to create the price thresholds.
I will go further and suggest that if you allow the “Wisdom” into your ratings then they are not unique to you.
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Bill Benter would give you a multi million pound argument
 
pete said:
Saw an interesting video a few days ago that is somewhat relevant.
The 2-3 mins after the video starts is the "bit" to to take from it.

Click to expand...
if the wisdom of the crowd was predicated purely on quality punters opinions i.e. could be isolated from "bookmaker" and Traders influence inc the big pools - well then that could be a different metric , but not as it is now.
 
DuckandDive said:
When ARAZI91 ARAZI91 posted up the Value Efficiency ranking sheet, it produced a range of runners that could be considered.

Sometimes, the tissue price is slightly more than the live odds, so strictly speaking shouldn't qualify. The ranking range then gives flexibility over any min odds used as the sheet is looking at all the runners and their delta's. (gaps in the rating)

If solo betting, then the top value efficiency ranked is used. If Dutching, any amount of runners that match a ratings short-list can be used.
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It's a shame ARAZI91 ARAZI91 has stopped posting, just one post from him could last me a fortnight.
 
the "crowd" image and reputation is so misleading - leads massive upsets
  • Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in 2008, marking a pivotal moment in the financial crisis.
  • Founded in 1844, Lehman initially thrived in commodities trading before expanding into investment banking.
  • The firm's downfall was precipitated by risky ventures in subprime mortgages and mortgage-backed securities.
  • Despite record profits from 2005 to 2007, escalating housing market issues led to Lehman's collapse.
  • Lehman's failure underscores the risks of high leverage and inadequate risk management in finance.
there is no comfort in knowing that " its ok we ALL got it wrong"
 
M mando , i looked at this race last night and have priced it up off of my model, Racemetrics have it around 8/1 as well.
( Disclaimer! my selections will bankrupt you)


16:20 Brighton — Blackmore Design & Build Handicap​


23 August 2026 | 6f 210y | Class 4 | Good | 7 runners


Our model​





Combined Speed 40% | Own PRB 20% | Suitability 20% | Ran Well 10% | TAC 8% | DSLR 2%




RankHorseModel RatingModel Win %Fair Odds
1Sea Suite80.7627.7%2.61 / 13/8
2Foreseen75.0824.0%3.17 / 13/6
3Knights Gold71.0421.5%3.65 / 8/3
4North View48.319.9%9.11 / 8/1
5Cuban Lady47.079.4%9.64 / 17/2
6Dapper Guest32.814.6%20.72 / 20/1
7King Of War26.102.9%33.54 / 33/1
 
markfinn said:
if the wisdom of the crowd was predicated purely on quality punters opinions i.e. could be isolated from "bookmaker" and Traders influence inc the big pools - well then that could be a different metric , but not as it is now.
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If you mean it would be more accurate than it already is then that is not really possible. The whole message behind WOC is that the smart and the dumb so to speak weight each other out to a remarkable level of accuracy. You should read Thinking Fast and Slow ...Kaneman
 
I think I have read it - what you are missing is that the market that is spoken about is at the off or at least around 5mins before the - when all the money is down and the traders are safely out of it. How can the casual or prepared punter who formulating their ratings the day or before 1pm on the use info that is not available
 
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Thanks to you all for indulging me and helping me to see the different angles on value and ways to quantify it. Appreciate it, hoping bit by bit with this forum and all your kind help and ideas, I'll become more skilled at picking the right horses
 
I mentioned the approach my friend uses, funnily enough he has just dropped me an email regarding a horse he told me about on Wednesday when I met him in York, it was Aventure, below is his email

"10 with Betfair , 15/2 Bet 365 this morning- what a price ! "
 
markfinn said:
I think I have read it - what you are missing is that the market that is spoken about is at the off or at least around 5mins before the - when all the money is down and the traders are safely out of it. How can the casual or prepared punter who formulating their ratings the day or before 1pm on the use info that is not available
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Two answers to that first of all they could use the market that has formed well before the off, it wont be as accurate but it still has merit. As for using the market just before the off this can be solely the domain of automated bettors because you would have to be some sort of Savant to formulate a revised opinion with a minute or so to go. One other point however is some tissue makers do actually use the advanced market in an informal way. If they have a horse at 5/1 and the market says 20/1 they often do not choose an argument with the market and prefer to back off. I am not advocating this merely passing on what some tissue creators prefer to do
 
im a big fan of steven sol skiena ( calculated bets)
  • Model first: predict each player's win probability from performance data.



  • Market second: compare those probabilities with the tote or bookmaker price to decide whether a bet has positive expected value.

 
M mando,
Windsor 18.18 24/08/2026.
1787510280956.png

Thats the current bookies market. im going to use whats pasted below for tissue V current market its what im using for this race it does not mean its correct.


. I'd make the market weighting dynamic​


This is where I think we could improve your workflow substantially.


Don't have one fixed market weighting. Increase its influence as we approach the off.


For example:


Day before:
75% model / 25% market


Morning of race:
70% model / 30% market


2–3 hours before:
65% model / 35% market


Near the off:
60% model / 40% market

So now we get this for current prices but it will change as prices change.
Forecast % = (Model % × 0.75) + (100% Market % × 0.25)
Click to expand...

That gives:


HorseModelMarket75/25 ForecastForecast Odds
Cape Fear20.82%28.23%22.67%4.41
Raulin20.01%12.94%18.24%5.48
Morcar16.89%9.13%14.95%6.69
Percival12.42%17.91%13.79%7.25
Tai Hang Pegasus11.99%15.53%12.88%7.77
Just An Hour9.30%11.09%9.75%10.26
Melek Alreeh8.57%5.18%7.72%12.95

I want other members to correct me thats the only way people like me and M mando will progress. :handgestures-thumbup:
 
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Thanks S Sol Ski for putting up your workings. Really getting a better insight on how to price things up. Thanks too to DuckandDive DuckandDive I checked out that Back That Horse website, which I didn't realise I had joined a while back, but never used, so now with a few things I've learnt today from everyone I can have a crack at figuring out my own prices
 
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