Value ?

[mando]

Hello, I'm new here, well, been a member for a while but not used the site much. Recently I've had more time on my hands so been an annoying lurker, that's due to feeling incredibly inferior to most members who have a wealth of knowledge on horse racing and I've just been trying to take in opinions, strategies, ideas etc as I'm near the beginning of my journey. This seems a good post for me to start my interactions! As I'm a novice to all this I have to say I pick the A option, what I think will win. I wouldn't really know how to price up my own races so wouldn't find value. But my question is, isn't value subjective? If we pick a random horse in a random race would you all mostly find it's value around the same price or would there be quite a big percentage difference between you all? Sorry if this is a dumb question but wanted to start on the forum somewhere and really want to learn. Thank you and hi!

 

[MySportsAI]

Hi Mando good question. Value prices can be evaluated in broadly 3 ways

1. You have a statistical model that create its evaluation of fair prices, you bet when you can exceed these

2. You read a race and then create your own tissue ie I think this horse should be 5/2 this one 7/2 etc you then check odds and bet if you can beat them

3. Now this is how a friend of mine operates - he watches groups and listed races mainly. He gets an opinion on horses, their needs and strengths, he particularly likes to log horses that travel well. He then see them re appear in a race and he looks at the odds. If he thinks bloody hell that is too big he backs it. He does a lot of ante post bets as well. On Derby day as an example he was on Bay City Roller at 33/1, the Derby winner at a similar price and he had a 3rd winner at a good price. He also had an acca running from these 3 onto Ascot where he had 10/1 French horse in the St James Palace that got withdrawn so he glad to see his final leg get beat a head (another french horse) in the big 6f sprint. I digress however as he is not just an acca bettor. Another example was Time for Sandal in the July cup last year.

So with option 3 you are mainly forming opinions of horses and then letting the prices jump out at you, you are backing prices not horrses. He will by way leave one alone if its short even though he may like the horse

I should say there is one other type of value betting

4. You have identified a staitical subset of races and horses where the public routinely underbets the horses in question. 20 years ago this may have been women riders for example

 

[mando]

Thanks for the reply MySportsAI a good amount of information there for me to look through. I'm just intrigued if I picked a random horse say North View in the 16.20 at Brighton today and asked everyone to price up their fair odds for it, how similar they would be?

 

[MySportsAI]

Dont know, perhaps a few may respond and tell you

 

[DuckandDive]

But my question is, isn't value subjective? If we pick a random horse in a random race would you all mostly find it's value around the same price or would there be quite a big percentage difference between you all?

Yes it is subjective. There is a term going around that: Value is in the eye of the beholder.

Subjective worth: An item or idea holds different amounts of worth to different people.
Personal views: What one person finds useless, another might treasure.

However, what's the fun in that.

Back in the day, there were odds compilers that, through their own expertise could price up the race with a cursory glance at the form. Once they offered the prices to the market, the prices got knocked into shape by shrewd and not so shrewd punters. The end result was the starting price, which, essentially, confirmed if the prices were right or wrong.

Nowadays we have excel sheets to the heavy lifting and more recently A.I. too. Whichever way is chosen, if your best guess beats the market's best guess with odds, you have found value.

 

[tacker]

Thanks for the reply MySportsAI a good amount of information there for me to look through. I'm just intrigued if I picked a random horse say North View in the 16.20 at Brighton today and asked everyone to price up their fair odds for it, how similar they would be?

Trouble is with a question like this M mando is that the market already exists and so it's difficult not to be influenced by it.
If you were to choose a competitve race from tomorrow's racing then maybe people might offer something that might be of interest, not sure.

 

[markfinn]

The market could be formed but why allow it influence any opinion ? . It baffles me that the “wisdom of the crowd” is given the credence that it gets - if you rate the race and price up your horses on that % table - then it’s up to raters skill or lack of it to create the price thresholds.
I will go further and suggest that if you allow the “Wisdom” into your ratings then they are not unique to you.

 

[mando]

Trouble is with a question like this M mando is that the market already exists and so it's difficult not to be influenced by it.
If you were to choose a competitve race from tomorrow's racing then maybe people might offer something that might be of interest, not sure.

Ah, ok I get that, so a race like the 18.18 at Windsor tomorrow and random horse Percival. It's ok if no one wants to do it, I'm just kinda feeling my way into all this and plucking up the courage to post things

 

[markfinn]

if your best guess beats the market's best guess with odds, you have found value.

Hi Duck - with solo or Dutch betting is any winning horse ever bad value if you can get on your min odds required .

 

[trecelyn]

I have put a lot of work into creating a set of class ratings, I am getting to the stage now where I am starting to gain confidence in them, not quite to where I would like to be but a lot further on than where I was 12 months ago. There are a few outliers that make me look stupid but weeding them out is all part of the process.

The fact that they are my own ratings although loosely based on JIB class ratings make them unique and often disagree with the betting market and that is where I think I get value. Quite often my ratings indicate to me to focus on 2 possibly 3 horses and if any of these are away from the top end of the market, I may have found a potential value bet, but do not bet them blindly, I try and make a case for it being mindful not try and frame favourable conditions for my horse and ignoring the negatives.

When I started it was all about the strike rate and I would beat myself up after a string of losers, but now I have come to realise I have to accept the losers and try and find out what went wrong a la Chesham post mortems. The key to winning for me is getting the bigger prices which all boils down to value, does it not?

 

[DuckandDive]

Thanks for the reply MySportsAI a good amount of information there for me to look through. I'm just intrigued if I picked a random horse say North View in the 16.20 at Brighton today and asked everyone to price up their fair odds for it, how similar they would be?

Back That Horse <-- There's a free to use website called Backthathorse run by a member called: pawras

Taken from the website is a set of ratings:



Focus on the Form rating in column 4, this could be used to explain how to create your own tissue price:

1. Add all the Form Ratings
2. Turn each rating into a probability
3. Convert the probability into tissue odds



1. Total = 308.59
2. Sea Suite 70.31 / 308.59 = 22.78%
3 100 / 22.78 = 4.39

Excel Formulae: in column E2 then drag down/



---

In principle, you then compare the tissue price v the live market, if you can get a better price than the tissue, you could call it value.

--

In theory, the racing post betting forecast is an excellent time saving alternative. That could be a starting point. or average out your own price with the betting forecast to give it a realistic feel. Find a way that suits you and enjoy the process.

---

 

[Chesham]

I looked at the Brighton 3.20 and priced that up at 9.30. Shared with a few other members at that time : Still in the experimental stage.

Might be a good exercise for those who are not interested in Tissue Price for their take on the race and if the odds on their probable winner are acceptable to them .

 

[markfinn]

The key to winning for me is getting the bigger prices which all boils down to value, does it not?

Not necessarily - as long as you are betting your own ratings value an evens horse may present excellent value - I don’t bet at less as if forced to I would rather lay anything less - but that’s just choice - Barry Meadows advices “ Never back against your own Favs” proven good advice over the years.

 

[DuckandDive]

Hi Duck - with solo or Dutch betting is any winning horse ever bad value if you can get on your min odds required .

When ARAZI91 posted up the Value Efficiency ranking sheet, it produced a range of runners that could be considered.

Sometimes, the tissue price is slightly more than the live odds, so strictly speaking shouldn't qualify. The ranking range then gives flexibility over any min odds used as the sheet is looking at all the runners and their delta's. (gaps in the rating)

If solo betting, then the top value efficiency ranked is used. If Dutching, any amount of runners that match a ratings short-list can be used.

 

[DuckandDive]

The fact that they are my own ratings although loosely based on JIB class ratings make them unique and often disagree with the betting market and that is where I think I get value

Well done. that's a way of measuring value too.

The key to winning for me is getting the bigger prices which all boils down to value, does it not?

I suppose it depends on what you regard as bigger prices. Is that bigger than a min odds for a race, say 3/1 or bigger than your own tissue price?

 

[markfinn]

When ARAZI91 posted up the Value Efficiency ranking sheet, it produced a range of runners that could be considered.

Sometimes, the tissue price is slightly more than the live odds, so strictly speaking shouldn't qualify. The ranking range then gives flexibility over any min odds used as the sheet is looking at all the runners and their delta's. (gaps in the rating)

If solo betting, then the top value efficiency ranked is used. If Dutching, any amount of runners that match a ratings short-list can be used.

Yes but that’s trading - there has only been one “ Openly” very successful punter on here that posted pre race ( often two days before a race) he only ever backed one horse , backed to his own opinion and would only back if he got the required odds - could be long or short as long as he beat his price he would back / more often than not it all ended in a no bet because the price wasn’t for him - which again he posted pre race . I think we know who I am talking about if not it was mick.

 

[DuckandDive]

I will go further and suggest that if you allow the “Wisdom” into your ratings then they are not unique to you.

Can see what your saying. Your own rating, converted to a tissue price is unique to you.

Let's assume it's made up of all the main elements of form and suchlike. What is there within the rating that could change up to and near the off-time? That's the only way I'd alter my rating pre-off.

I admit, I've been influenced by the way Bill Benter chose to incorporate the live market into his tissue, to find value bets. Using ARAZI91 model/market sheet at least it does that easily enough. That's the wisdom of the crowds influence being included in a subtle way.

 

[pete]

The market could be formed but why allow it influence any opinion ? . It baffles me that the “wisdom of the crowd” is given the credence that it gets

Saw an interesting video a few days ago that is somewhat relevant.
The 2-3 mins after the video starts is the "bit" to to take from it.

 

[DuckandDive]

Yes but that’s trading - there has only been one “ Openly” very successful punter on here that posted pre race ( often two days before a race) he only ever backed one horse , backed to his own opinion and would only back if he got the required odds - could be long or short as long as he beat his price he would back / more often than not it all ended in a no bet because the price wasn’t for him - which again he posted pre race . I think we know who I am talking about if not it was mick.

Yes, Mick is different gravy for sure.

 

[Chesham]

Not necessarily - as long as you are betting your own ratings value an evens horse may present excellent value - I don’t bet at less as if forced to I would rather lay anything less - but that’s just choice - Barry Meadows advices “ Never back against your own Favs” proven good advice over the years.

Barry Meadow. Chart