Value ?
- Thread starter MySportsAI
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
MySportsAI
Filly
Across this and another thread there are still a minority who think that value/true odds cannot be quantified and therefore finding a winner is the way to go
MySportsAI
Filly
It is indeed worrying
I see, well finding the winner can come in handy now and again but i am recently enjoying the pleasure of "trading", might be using the wrong term but by it is a basic need to find something clearly over priced and lay it at lower odds for a free bet.....can that be classed as "value" ?
BC
Colt
You are the only one worrying.
If you can quantify value/true odds to any degree of accuracy you have the holy grail. It is out of the reach of 99% of punters to price a race up for true odds consistently accurately, I would say 100% but there are clearly big syndicates who can get close.
pete
Sire
I have always been a proponent of : what you bet on is not important, as long as you beat the closing line by ~ 10/15%, you will be good.
I can not know a single thing about an event, but if I can spot and back value .. i can win money long term.
The main issue of course is that if you beat the closing line , the bookies will pack your bags and close you down ... so .. if you want to play, you cannot play this way.
I can not know a single thing about an event, but if I can spot and back value .. i can win money long term.
The main issue of course is that if you beat the closing line , the bookies will pack your bags and close you down ... so .. if you want to play, you cannot play this way.
pete
Sire
Beating ISP is no good. Beating the bfsp is what you need to do.
MySportsAI
Filly
Unless you are beating the CL on the exchanges
Leopardstown 18.00 Hcp
Lets put it to the test i would back Zheleznaya Dama. its perceived value and 3rd Favorite.
Total: 100.00%
Corrected 100% Tissue
Lets put it to the test i would back Zheleznaya Dama. its perceived value and 3rd Favorite.
| Horse | Rating | Model % | Fair Odds | Market | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Right | 82 | 18.05% | 9/2 | 11/4 |  UNDERLAY |
| Zheleznaya Dama | 80 | 14.05% | 6.1/1 | 13/2 |  VALUE |
| Altimara | 79 | 12.40% | 7.1/1 | 9/2 | UNDERLAY |
| Jazzit | 78 | 10.95% | 8.1/1 | 7/1 |  FAIR / SLIGHT UNDERLAY |
| Brains | 77 | 9.66% | 9.4/1 | 11/1 | VALUE |
| Kc Bear | 74 | 6.64% | 14.1/1 | 18/1 | VALUE |
| All Hail | 72 | 5.17% | 18.3/1 | 28/1 | BIG-PRICE VALUE |
| Ballymagreehan | 71 | 4.56% | 20.9/1 | 12/1 | UNDERLAY |
| Sporting Hero | 70 | 4.03% | 23.8/1 | 28/1 | VALUE |
| Ninth Crusade | 69 | 3.55% | 27.1/1 | 25/1 | FAIR |
| Free Solo | 69 | 3.55% | 27.1/1 | 14/1 | UNDERLAY |
| Naoi | 67 | 2.77% | 35.1/1 | 14/1 | UNDERLAY |
| Phoenix Pairc | 65 | 2.16% | 45.4/1 | 14/1 | UNDERLAY |
| Hazrama | 61 | 1.31% | 75/1 | 18/1 | UNDERLAY |
| Shamanka | 60 | 1.15% | 86/1 | 40/1 | UNDERLAY |
Total: 100.00%
Sullybomb
Gelding
MySportsAI
Filly
Well done there is only a 1% chance that those results are by chance
Sullybomb
Gelding
pawras
Stallion
but harder to do on an avg basis, but not impossible, understanding how your own selections behave in the market helps somewhat
Last edited:
BC
Colt
My little grey cells needed a day to process this. I'm not particularly bright.
(What's that you say? You already worked that out! Cheek!)
From what you've written on the other thread, it would seem that true odds are only available in the couple of minutes before the off. In which case, I can only see it helping those folks who are prepared to sit with their computer revving and their finger on the trigger during that last push.
Is that what you're suggesting? Or am I barking up the wrong tree?
Come to think of it: what are you suggesting? I'm guessing there's software available that does these value calculations, à la Bentner?
It wouldn't do for me, I'm afraid. But there are some clever people on this forum who I'd imagine might find it useful, if that is what you are promoting.
MySportsAI
Filly
You cannot know BFSP before the off so a price say 1 minute to the off would have to do. As for execution all the above would be automated, the calc's and the bet execution. Of course one could test it with odds an hour before racing which allows for a manual approach. More info here
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