Today I have BE Patient in the Newmarket 3.45 priced at 3/1 . If my odds line is accurate it has a 75% (Rounded Up) chance of losing
I need 7/2 or better to take the risk .
Of course if my estimate way out as far as an accurate tissue and it’s real chances run out to be 4/1 then overtime I will lose even if I back at 7/2
Tony Drapkin has been producing Hoof Tissue Prices for well over 25 years and it is not always the Shortest Tissue that is the bet
IN Tonys own words
Ratings for 21st May
2012
Newton Abbot:5.20 Handicap chase:5 rnrs
HORSE TR-PROB TR-ODDS V-30 V-PLUS LAY_30
Gwanako(FR) 0.253 3-1 5-1 6-1 3.038 4/6 favourite
Louis Pasteur(IRE) 0.222 7-2 11-2 7-1 3.45 Won 14/1 (29/1 available on Betfair)
King Cyrus(IRE) 0.2 4-1 13-2 8-1 3.84
Whizzaar 0.199 9-2 13-2 9-1 3.863
Pastek(FR) 0.124 15-2 11-1 16-1 6.179
The top three are clearly indicated. Where there are joint top, second-top or third-top rated, more than three horses may figure in the top three.
See my criteria for ranking the top three.
The TR-PROB column gives the ‘true probability’ of the horse winning, as calculated by the program using Bayes’ theorem on a database of 25,000 races.
The TR-ODDS column translates the true probability into the corresponding odds.
The V-30 column gives the minimum odds at which a horse may be considered worth backing, with a 30% margin in the backer’s favour.
The V-PLUS column indicates outstanding value with a 40-45% margin in the backer’s favour.
The LAY-30 column indicates the odds at which the horse may be considered worth laying on the betting exchanges.
In the race in question, the winner was second top-rated Louis Pasteur at 14/1 (a v-30 or value investment at 11/2). He beat the 7/2 second favourite King Cyrus, with the odds-on favourite Gwanako (rated at true odds of 3/1) well in rear.
While it would be wrong to suggest that superb value like this is an everyday occurrence, there is suggestive evidence over many seasons that the ratings are the best value indicator available.
Most of the value horses to be found in the top two or three rated start at an average price of around 8/1. This necessarily entails a fairly low strike rate of around 13%. Coping with the inevitable long losing runs is simply a matter of sensible staking with a larger bank, typically 200 points, compared with the 20 point bank which is recommended in many of the standard texts on the subject.
Tightening of the market
Since I wrote the above, the market has tightened considerably. Timeform ratings, which are enormously influential, are now to be found in one form or another, on a large number websites, including Betfair and Paddy Power who own Timeform. This means that what was once a niche market for those prepared to pay, is now freely available.
I have had to change my own betting strategies to cope with the fact that a 30% advantage is rarely available without an unacceptable level of risk and the prospect of long losing runs.
These days I concentrate on the top two in the ratings, and place a bet if there is any value to be had, even if it is only a quarter of a point (allowing 2% fr Betfair deductions). In addition, I don’t bet if the odds are too long. Typically, anything longer than Betfair 7 (6/1 at bookmakers’ odds) is not backed. I miss a few winners in this way, but I avoid a large number of losers. I will back one at a large price if my form analysis shows that the ratings have spotted a real case of miss pricing in the market.
The following was all posted pre race (Not by Myself, but I followed the person undertaking this , with interest over the NH season )
I think the difference between trying to find the winner and taking value about is a personal choice
one way to think about it is that if your preference is to find the winner , when starting out to analyse a race you may have whittle the runners down to three and from those three you narrow it down to one horse to back . Sometimes you may have chosen the correct horse , but how many times do you see one of the 2 discarded win
If you are Value minded and have priced up a tissue price ,you may find that one of the 2 that you intended to discard is a better risk as you are being offered better odds than your tissue price
mick as many of you know is probably the one who fits into both camps. MIck is choosing just one horse to back based on his own ratings and knowledge of the horse in question and after checking that it is being placed with the best opportunity for awhile. Next stage he is operating from the 48hr dec and looking for an acceptable price . Quite often I have seen Mick post at the 48 docs stage and he has taken 14/1 about the horse. Because he has given this information to a limited few members, the price is still available.
Mick has the psychology to stand losing runs as he has made a decent ROI for many years. also being one of those who have witnessed all of his bets posted pre race. I know this to be true .
For those who like to back who you think the winner is likely to be, then it’s a case of only you knowing if the odds offered are acceptable to the risk that you are taking
