Valu4U

[Chesham]

Chesham, are the Implied Odds derived from the trading volume?

Hi Pika

This was how I explained Implied Odds on another of the Threads on this forum

if Oriels Rainbow had £99984 matched and the Total Matched
for the Race was 176127, then Oriels Rainbow had 56.8%
of the Market

100/56.8 = 1.76 which is the Implied Odds for Oriels Rainbow based on
Market Share

 

[Jackform]

I thought the actual market did rather well yesterday.......and everyone said 'whatever!'
More of the same today at Newbury.
12.30 Chocala
1.00 Definite Dream
1.30 Twelve Roses, Western Warhorse
2.05 Wonderful Charm, Tenerko Emery
2.40 Niceonefrankie
3.15 Carole's Sport, Fabrika
3.45 Sign Of A Victory, Wilde Blue Yonder

 

[Jackform]

Now for my lost-the-plot long-shot with many a wise price but definitely not Pricewise.
Doncaster
12.10 Harry's Whim (Burns Night?)
2.20 Inoogoo (Quito Du Tresor?)
2.55 Lysino

 

[Chesham]

Hi Jacko

Not sure what the concept is with the recent selections ?...I understood the one race that you posted yesterday which had a tissue price, but not the others or today's, as the Thread that you started is value for you, and I expected to see a price restriction before a bet was to be struck.

Good Luck

Chesham

 

[Jackform]

Chesham, my apologies if I am causing conceptual confusion it was just a whimsical indulgence on my part, after all only you and me read this stuff most everyone else is at work at this time of day. Anyway, I did think that a high strike-rate may represent value for any individual like say VDW with 80/90% winning bets and could wager at virtually any price. My second post was handicappers at perceived value odds. Here's one in detail assessed according to the principles espoused by my guru, prof Frank George. Form ratings compiled from class, hacp, weight-change, time, recent form, overall form, course, distance, odds;
Newbury 2.40
1. 7 13/1 (16/1 RP at 10.45)
2. 4 60/1 (14/1)
3. 7 13/1 (13/2)
4. 7 13/1 (18/1)
5. 4 60/1 (8/1)
6. 7 13/1 (16/1)
7. 9 17/2 (13/2) Cedre Bleu £3 at my f/c odds to clear £20
8. 6 18/1 (6/1)
9. 9 17/2 (40/1) Full Jack £3 to clear £20
10. 18 11/4 (3/1) Niceonefrankie £8 to clear £20
11. 9 5/1 (6/1) Theatrical Star £4 to clear £20

Niceonefrankie is an obvious contender on form.

 

[Chesham]

Hi Jacko

You are already adding a over round to your Odds then



Good Luck

Chesham

 

[Chesham]

I thought the actual market did rather well yesterday.......and everyone said 'whatever!'
More of the same today at Newbury.
12.30 Chocala
1.00 Definite Dream
1.30 Twelve Roses, Western Warhorse
2.05 Wonderful Charm, Tenerko Emery
2.40 Niceonefrankie
3.15 Carole's Sport, Fabrika
3.45 Sign Of A Victory, Wilde Blue Yonder

Hi Jacko

These are all Timeform Selections????

 

[Chesham]

Re "Anyway, I did think that a high strike-rate may represent value for any individual like say VDW with 80/90% winning bets and could wager at virtually any price."

Can't see how this fits in with VDW, Maiden Hurdlers who have come from Bumper races

Example

 

[Jackform]

I have been studying form analysis - Doh!

Eggs&ham today - I thought....

2.00 A tight hcap looks like 4 of the 5 have chances but in the end opted for Sudski Star, Cara court both being supported.
In the non-hcaps.....
3.00 Top 4 have OR indicating ability, finally Tickandemickey has speed, has form, C&D
4.00 Mares maiden nightmare only Nosey Box has OR also speed. Others may prefer Walz Legend.
4.30 Hunter chasers, just the top 2 for OR but Current Exchange by form and speed.

Took me some time to work the above out then I decided to check the trainers and in 2 minutes found this order of merit:
2.00 Sudski Star (Griffin/Hughes), Cara Court (Shiels/Bourke)
3.00 Tickandemickey (Shiels/Bourke)
4.00 Bespoke Lady (McCain/McCoy), Nosey Box (Reilly/Fox)
4.30 Current Exchange (Crow/Gerely), Ocarina (Alexander/Alexander)

 

[Jackform]

8 years since my last post on this thread - doesn't time fly

My possible early market VALUE tips at Wincanton.

Wincanton (going forecast GF some G showers) market odds from 09.15. P Nicholls top track trainer.

12.40 Sabrina (15/8)
1.15 Sebastapol (3/1)
1.50 Frodon (5/2)
2.25 Trolley Boy (7/2)
3.00 Knappers Hill (2/1)
3.35 Butterwick Brook (11/4)

 

[Jackform]

As my merit trainers looked out of sync with the early market today in comparison I tried an alternative approach at my home track Uttoxeter, which is weight-change in hcaps and time for non-hcaps.

Uttoxeter (going forecast GS showers) market odds from 10.50. D Skelton top track trainer.

11.55 Ballymagroarty 7/2
12.25 Saladam 10/3
12.55 Missed Tee 4/1
1.25 Clonakilty 1/1
1.55 Hay There Mona 15/2
2.25 Opening Bid 6/1
2.55 The Cob 5/1
3.25 Quick Draw 10/3

 

[Jackform]

C chipcob , shall we try some more of the same today, although not looking so clear cut on paper.

Leicester (going forecast hdl S some GS, chs GF with GS flat crossings) market odds from 1..45
12.10 Blended Stealth 85/40
12.40 Boagrius 9/2 (possible danger The Boat 9/4)
1.15 Scamallach 7/2 (possible danger Grozni 10/3)
1.50 Maladygrace 6/5
2.25 Twinjets 8/11
3.00 Ashington 3/1
3.35 Oxygen 7/2 (possible danger Present Value 9/4)

 

[Jackform]

Newcastle (going forecast GS some S showers - is that snow? ) Market odds from 10.05.

12.12 Brickadank 9/1 speculative e.w.
12.42 Hashtag Lord 3/1
1.17 Bretney 5/2
1.52 Supreme Gift 5/2
2.22 Nil
2.52 Tellhimlisten 7/4
3.22 Had To Be Hugo 11/2 speculative e.w.

My comment: I used to post this methodology prior to the millenium on racing sites of the time . A chap emailed me and said his father had told him to follow me as i was the best tipster in the UK then. If it were true I would have made a fortune, but I didn't, so it wasn't .

At a loose end this morning so do another meeting

Taunton (going forecast G watered showers) Market odds rom 10.40.

12.28 Wajaaha 8/15
1.00 Deegeeteebee 10/1 speculative e.w.
1.35 Brentford hope 11/8
2.08 Midnight Midge 5/2 (possible danger Huelgoat 3/1)
2.38 Ilanz 11/8
3.08 Layerthorpe 8/1
3.40 Lord Bill 9/1 (possible danger Killybeg Junior 3/1

 

[Jackform]

Poor results yesterday but you can't predict losing runs - that's what it's all about. Try again today, although I remembered why I stopped previously - it gets boring!

Cheltenham (going forecast G) Market odds from 10.40.

12.40 Timeforatune 4/1
1.50 Marta Des Mottes 7/2
3.00 Kontach Cheval 17/2
3.35 Flight Deck 13/2

 

[Jackform]

Lingfield (going forecast St - Slw scattered showers) Market odds 10.35

11.42 May Remain 9/2
1.12 Mick's Spirit 4/1 (possible danger Harb 7/2)
2.20 Dark Kris 4/1
2.50 Faithless Insomnia 11/2
3.20 Persian Wolf 2/1 (possible danger Magical Dragon 10/3)

 

[Jackform]

Have a little time before the lunch gong so try to be a little controversial and post some value selections - that should get the blood flowing!
I have just priced up the early market expected ( as I see it) in comparison to the early market.

Doncaster (going forecast G some GS showers) Market odds from 11.15.
12.45 Market expected no's 2, 6, 4, 5

2. Datsallrightgino (11/4 mkt) A value bet at 9/4 by my form calculation
6. Moriko De Vassey (7/2) My value 9/4
4. Haddex Des Obeaux (4/1) My value 4/1
5. Call Of The Wild 5/1) My value 4/1

My comment: Looks a possible race for punters early with 2 and 6 being best!

The ATR form verdict in comparison.
DATSALRIGHTGINO has done little wrong in three chase appearances to date and the form of his last-time-out third at Newbury took a timely boost when the fifth, Balco Coastal, came out and bolted up at Kempton on Boxing Day. He remains open to further improvement and looks to have a big chance in this competitive handicap. Haddex Des Obeaux jumped slightly left when runner-up at Kempton latest and going this way round may suit him better, while Barrichello must also come into the reckoning.
Top Tip: DATSALRIGHTGINO (2)
Watch out for: HADDEX DES OBEAUX (4)

Do another one for you then I 'm off to lunch - just southern fried chicken to share with the dog - well he is my best mate

1.55 Early market expected no's 4, 8, 1, 3

4. Walking On Air (13/8 mkt 11.50) My form value 11/4?
8. Silver Flyer (5/1) My value 7/2*
1. Erne River (6/1) My value 3/1*
3. Pounding Poet (6/1) My value 3/1*

My comment: Erne River and Pounding Poet are my top two early.

ATR form verdict for comparison
Erne River has faced stiff tests against classy opposition over fences and may appreciate these calmer waters back over hurdles, while Uhtred is respected and has a live chance judged on his peak efforts from his time in Ireland. However, WALKING ON AIR is less exposed and, given that he was thought good enough to be pitched into a Grade 1 at Aintree in April, it's safe to assume there is a lot more to come from Nicky Henderson's gelding.
Top Tip: WALKING ON AIR (4)
Watch out for: ERNE RIVER (1)

 

[Jackform]

Took a further look at the 'value' approach and compared four pro-sources for comparison to see what they made of runners in the same race.

Cheltenham (going forecast GS) Market odds from 10.05
2.30 Market expected no.s 4, 9, 2, 3, 8 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.

2. (9/2 mkt) 9/2*-7/2*-5/1-7/2* Knappers Hill
3. (9/2) 9/2*-7/2*-9/4*-5/1 First Street
4. (10/3) 7/2-4/1-5/1-7/2 I Like To Move
8. (8/1) 7/2*-4/1*-4/1*-5/1* Dashel Drasher
9. (7/2) 4/1-9/2-10/3*-10/3* Marie's Rock

My comment: Odds starred* are value early. I Like to Move looks out of it early whilst Dashel Drasher looks a good each-way shot, but it is necessary to wait until near the off to assess the situation for betting.

The following is just for comparison with the above.
The ATR form verdict.
Nicky Henderson plays a strong hand with Marie's Rock, a Grade 1 winner in the Mares Champion Hurdle at last season's Punchestown Festival, and First Street, who won the Jerry Fielden at Newbury last month, both respected. However, preference is for the progressive I LIKE TO MOVE IT, who landed the Greatwood Hurdle with a bit in hand 49 days ago and his proven effectiveness at this course compensates for a lack of experience over the trip. Knappers Hill completes the shortlist.
Top Tip: I LIKE TO MOVE IT (4)
Watch out for: MARIE'S ROCK (9)

 

[Jackform]

Yesterday (Chelmsford 3.00) nobody knew? Form, connections, layers, not forgetting myself - so not too downhearted. Hereford today where the chase course rates heavy so just a class 4 hcap hurdle. As they all seem to know no better than each other I will just compare with RPR to save work and cock-ups, hopefully

.

Hereford (going forecast hdl S)
3.30 Market expected 10.45* nos 7, 3, 9, 5 indicating a win restric5ted to these. Theoreical strong fav 9/4, contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1/

3. 11/2 (mkt 10.45) - 10/3* (My odds), 10/3* (RPR odds) Alkopop
5. 7/1 - 2/1*, 3/1*. Pottlerath 1 tip
7. 11/8 - 11/4? 15/8? Loup De Mauld 11 tips -The general opinion is he is home and hosed and no punter value at all.
9. 11/2 - 5/1*, 5/1*. Flying Nun

My comment: Not a punters' race by all accounts if looking for value amongst the expected. Chloe's Court 11/1 mkt 10.45, 2 tips is from V Williams the top track trainer not current showing any form with Shane Quinlan (3) up and would be a very speculative punt?

The following is to compare with the above.
ATR form verdict.
LOUP DE MAULDE escapes a penalty after winning a conditional jockeys' event nine days ago and, given the authority of that success, the six-year-old will take some stopping. Pottlerath can't be faulted for his consistency, finishing runner-up on his last three starts. Alkopop may prove the chief threat, though, running off the same mark as his solid third at Uttoxeter 29 days ago.

Top Tip: LOUP DE MAULDE (7)
Watch out for: ALKOPOP (3)

 

[Jackform]

Yesterday the result was as expected but with little value for punters, although satisfactory as an assessment

. Not a lot to go at today with ffos las reported heavy. The wolves card is usual grade stuff for the AW.

Wolverhampton (going forecast St lightb rain)
2.15 Market expected 10.20* n'os 9, 3, 10, 4 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 11/4, contender 11/2, not expected longer than 11/1.

3. 3/1 (mkt 10.200 - 11/4* (my price) - 7/2 (RPR price) Buraback 2 tips
4. 7/1 - ? - ?
9. 5/2 - 7/2 - 2/1* Bond Boy 6 tips
10. 11/2 - 10/11* - 6/5* Aquamas

My comment: Aquamas looking good for a punt and will check nearer the off. I couldn't see anything in favour of Burabank and not too sure about Bond Boy, which is the general form choice.

The following is just for comparison with the above.
ATR form verdict
The Michael Dods stable has been in fine form of late and the most recent effort of AQUAMAS, when narrowly denied at Southwell, gives the impression that a win may be just around the corner for the daughter of Mehmas. Giselles Izzy won well at Southwell last time out and going back up in trip should not be inconvenience. Buraback wasn't beaten far on his most recent outing and is another to note.

Top Tip: AQUAMAS (10)
Watch out for: GISELLES IZZY (12) 3 tips (14/1 mkt 10.20 so no early support not expected)

 

[Jackform]

Tim Drakeford advises it's far better to follow pro assessments than your own, so that's where I have gone today.

Southwell (going forecast St scattered showers)
2.00 Market expected 09.55 no's 3, 5, 1 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

3. 2/1 (mkt exp). 11/8 Pro-price Earlofthecotswolds value early (2nd 9/4 stayed value until the off)
5. 9/4. 5/2 Rainbow Dreamer (3rd 5/2 never value)
1. 4/1. 5/2 Berkshire Bocco value early (won 3/1 stayed value until the off)

My comment: I have to say it saves time but is not as satisfying as trying yourself . We shall see where the market ends up near the off.
The following is just for comparison with the above.
ATR form verdict
Berkshire Rocco ran a more encouraging race when recently finishing fourth in a Listed event at Kempton, but he does need to prove his stamina now running over an extended 2m. EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS has no fears in that department and may bounce back to winning ways now reverting to the all-weather. Rainbow Dreamer has something to find on the ratings, but the 10-year-old was last seen finishing runner-up at Kempton and did well in the circumstances given his wide draw, so he shouldn't be underestimated.
Top Tip: EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS (3)
Watch out for: BERKSHIRE ROCCO (1)