Valu4U

[Chesham]

MODEL RANKINGS (with price coupling)​

Rank	Horse	Model Analysis Summary	Avg Market Odds	Market Rank	Verdict
	Shout	Top overall on race data. Strong final sectionals, topped FSP. Ran away in last.	15/2 (8.5)	4th	Outstanding Value
	Spell Master	Efficient stride profile. Held up last time, stayed on. Solid recent sectional times.	9/2 (5.5)	2nd	Correctly Priced
	Hyperchromatic	Progressing well. Won at nursery level. Competitive on figures if pace holds.	11/1 (12.0)	7th	Big Each-Way Value
	Bob Mali	Quickened smartly off slow pace in maiden win. Risky but has a “gear”.	10/1 (11.0)	6th	Improver Alert
	An Outlaw’s Grace	Mixed figures but had to do too much last time. Not ruled out on previous run.	14/1 (15.0)	8th	Longshot Potential
	Huscal	Has pace, but been outstayed previously. Sectionals don’t support current odds.	13/2 (7.5)	3rd	Slight Undervalue
	Back In Black	Tactically sound but not clocking big figures. Risk of flattening late again.	9/2 (5.5)	1st Fav	Overbet – Lay Zone
	Silver Ghost	Sectional profile well below field average. May struggle again on finish.	28/1 (31.0)	10th	Weak On Data

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[Jackform]

OK you guys back to the chase seeking value, just for something interesting to do really. An old pundit that I have respect for is Tim Drakeford and this is a quote from him:

" These are the questions, then, that the punter must answer before choosing a runner on which he might bet -
Does the horse have sufficient ability to win a race of this type?
Are the circumstances right for the ability to be shown on this occasion?
Do connections expect the horse to win or go close?
If the answers to these three questions are an unequivocal "yes", then the punter has found the right sort of horse on which to invest his money. Whether he should actually do so or not depends on the final imponderable, value."

Let's see if I can make it ponderable today .

Ayr (Soft - showers) Early mkt expected odd from 9.20 am. Top track yard N Alexander. My hot yard D Whillans
3.25 Mkt expected no's in order of merit 2, 3, 5, 9 early indication a win restricet to these.
2. 11/2 (MY price no noverround) ( 3/1 mkt) Kasanova's Dream
3. 6/1 (4/1) Biglesisback
5. 11/2 (5/1) Shoeshine Boy
9. 13/2 (6/1) Better Be Definite- N Alexander - MY each-way selection which is currently just about value.
MY opinion: Given the hcap weight range it indicates a win from the bottom third and that's no's 8 & 9.
My tissue derived from overal/ recent trainer, jockey, and horse track form.

 

[Michael231]

Well done again Alan a fair price as well

 

[Jackform]

Satisfactory yesterday so given the poor class and going over the sticks had to try the Kempton to find a'value' contender.
Kempton (poly St to Slw - light rain) Early mkt odds from 1pm. MY hot yard K Ryan.
7.10 Mkt expected no's in ordr of merit 1, 7, 3, 2 early indication is a win from these.
1. 9/1 (MY price no overound) (5/2 mkt) El Boden - OK draw
7. 9/1 (7/2) Kullazain - poor draw
3. 8/1 (7/2) Stratusnine - worst draw
2. 13/2 (8/1) We Never Stop - midfield draw. K Ryan yard. MY each-way selection for the race. Known SF ability is a negative?
MY opinion: With the hcap weight range the authorities are probably hoping to boost the rating of the top third and that's 1 & 2.