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under the forecast odds

hedgehog

hedgehog

Dam
Hello all,

I'm trying not to add to my other threads as I have a backlog of results to update the stats on, hopefully this will be done by the end of the week.

I've been mulling over this idea for a while. Do the current odds less than the forecast odds highlight winners?

Warwick 2.40
Horse........................rp forecast...... PP odds......movement.............difference
Ocean cove............. 4/1...................9/2..............out 3rd 4/1.............-0.5
Ratfacemcdougall...5/1...................8/1..............out..........................-3.0
Unblinking................5/1...................7/2..............in.............................-1.5
Captain cargo.......... 6/1..........…......10/3............hoover won 7/2jf...+2.7
Sir will.......................6/1..................11/1.............out...........................-5.0
Driftwood haze........7/1...................10/1.............out..........................-3.0
Oh land abloom.......8/1....................11/2….........................................+2.5

Who'd have thought a tricast would be so easy!

Unblinking is the first horse in the forecast to be trading at lower odds and is also going in.

Good luck today
 
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hedgehog hedgehog Re odds and chance ,if you look at the Pie Charts on Odds Checker they can be misleading because they are up dated via quantity not size of bets. One way of using this disinformation might be to consider a horse who is showing blue with the bookmakers but not showing on the chart, because what this might be saying is fewer but larger bets for the horse in question.
 
Hello mick mick ,

I checked out oddschecker but couldn't see any horse that fit the bill, probably not understanding the data

Good luck today
 
hedgehog said:
Do the current odds less than the forecast odds highlight winners?
Click to expand...

I have recently been thinking similar, only the exact opposite.
If current odds are much higher than forecast odds .. does the horse now represent value?
The shorter ones might win more races, but the longer ones might show more profit.
Have not checked the theory, but it is always something I feel like I should get around to looking at.
 
Thanks pete pete and Samacas Samacas for your ideas, both are very good. Pete you should investigate yours and Samacas, why did you stop yours as it was getting regular winners.

I've updated the initial post showing how the tricast could have been found.

If the AW common race is the same then it will be 1st kaser, 2nd fearsome, 3rd technological.

Not sure if I'll continue with this thread but it has potential. Samacas, why don't you restart your thread, it's very good

Good luck today
 
I posted a couple of predictions on the common AW race thread which also worked out. Just sticking to the 1st 6 and equals in the racing post forecast and only betting if there is a positive difference between rp forecast odds and paddy power current odds the stats would be

Races 3
Selections 4
Winners 3
P/L + 7.00pts
Yield +175.00%

That is just too good. I've looked at some more today and have

Leicester 2.40
Boughtbeforelunch 2nd 3/1f.Trigger nichol went in to a positive difference, bbl drifted out to 0

Newcastle 4.10
Stargazer 2nd 6/5f
Busy street won 6/1

Newcastle 5.15
Straight right 2nd 9/4
Pinnata won 2/1f
Areen heart 3rd 10/1

I also looked at the Kelso 3.25 but it's down to 5 runners and all but Craig star have positive differences as a result of the non runners so swerved.

Samacas Samacas, I write lists as otherwise tasks just drop out of my head so I know the feeling

Good luck today
 
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I've been thinking, never a good sign, that there are going to be races with non runners when looked at so an effort to correct the forecast odds is necessary

Kelso 3.25
Horse............................. Forecast...... Corrected....... PP odds.... Difference
Mahlervous...................15/8..............5/4...................13/8...........-0.38 won 10/11f ended up + difference
Craig star.......................5/1...............4/1....................6/1............-2.00
Sky khan........................7/1...............5.8/1.................10/3.........+2.47
Aristo du plessis...........10/1.............8.36/1...............15/2.........+0.86
Ted veale......................10/1..............8.36/1...............9/1...........-0.64

That was quite easy but with runners missing from a bigger field you'd have to scale to 80%

My predictions for the 3.25 kelso are
Sky khan 2nd 4/1
Aristo du plessis

Good luck today
 
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Thanks Larry Larry , much appreciated

Races 7
Selections 12
Winners 5 SR 71%
P/L +9.00
Yield +75.00%

I'm doing much better on the AW but all the winners of the races went to a positive difference just before the off. Maybe this is a last few minutes thing which is not my thing as most of the time I have a brain like porridge.

Try some more tomorrow

Good luck tomorrow
 
Hello all,

Predictions for today, makes it sound like I'm a medium!

Hereford 3.20 abandoned
Arthur's gift

Kempton 6.45
Choice encounter won 11/4f
Red alert
Kamra

Lingfield 2.40
Casper the cub 3rd 11/4f
Speed company

Good luck today
 
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Some more for the soaps

Kempton 7.15
Unit of assessment
Ilhabela fact 2nd 15/8f
Sir prize won 5/1

Kempton 8.15
Espresso freddo
Skydiving
Claudine
Red gunner none even placed

That should give me 11 races to see if this is interesting

I've made a mistake in the stats, on the first race in the thread unblinking was +tive so 1 extra selection and a point off the profit and loss total. I'll correct that this evening

Good luck today
 
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2 winners but a losing day

Races 11
Selections 25
Winners 7 SR 63%
P/L +5.75
Yield +23.00%

Started well but not proceeding well, I'll give it until the end of the week. I'd really like this to be profitable so I can use the less than forecast as a final crosscheck to help me weed out potential losers.

Good luck tomorrow
 
Thanks Larry Larry , that comment is very much appreciated. Thanks again

4 AW for today, may come back to the evening races as a lot can change in a few hours

Southwell 2.20
Foolaad 2nd 6/4f
Jumira bridge
Midnight Malibu won 15/2

Southwell 2.55
Temur khan won 9/4f
Mr carbonator
Purple rock

Chelmsford 5.55
How far
Desert doctor won 7/2jf
Human nature 2nd 6/1
Swift approval

Chelmsford 5.25
Scofflaw 3rd 3/1jf
Hammer gun
Kadrizzi 2nd 5/1
Evening attire

Good luck today
 
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Sorry to butt into your business hedgehog hedgehog but you say "may come back to evening races as a lot can change in a few hours" I feel you'll get more consistency by going in at the same time each day & leaving it alone after that. This is a system after all & although some fluidity is called for once selections are made, different times could make massive differences
For example lets say "A Trainer" wins the 1st race of the day his latter horses will be overbet thus making them false prices, the same could be said about "A Jockey" doing the same. I would however take notice of drifting selections. This of course is my own opinion & I can assure you I'm wrong more often than I'm right
all the best
Larry
 
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