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Under/over 2.5 goals - 100 bets record

MaxiStavros said:
As for my bets, I pick the over 2.5 goal bets in the same way every time - looking for the same things and I record the results on a s/s so I can look at different ideas of how to find an optimal way of switching my bets when I am running hot/cold.
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..... seems to me that often you are putting the cart before the horse. You take the time and trouble to look at 17 reasons or so for choosing under 2.50 goals then because you lost the last bet you go on to back over 2.50 goals on a completely different set of games with different opposition. Have you tried keeping a record of your bets as if you were backing your choice every day and then another record of your current method of reversal. You could then compare how each method is doing and at least discover which is worth continuing with. Currently you are taking time and trouble to find what you think is a good under 2.50 bet then you complete;y disregard your findings and back a different match because the previous one lost last time out. Makes no sense to me. ;)
 
I tried to tell him Delboy99 Delboy99 that what he does makes absolutely no sense picking something then changing because his variances as he said is running bad which is just his luck is out and wrong bets at times obviously,
I was accused with knowing nothing about variance but what he does not understand is variance and luck are completely different.
Why do you think bookies brought in 2.5 goals because its right on the border of amount of goals in any game and honestly the football teams could not care less if 2 or 3 goals in game as it does nothing for there points they just want to win.
If you wanted to bet even money all the time might as well toss coin with some one and now you will see true meaning of variance.
If you bet at toss the coin with some one for 5 years would you break even that's the fair odds you would, but realistic it would be almost impossible to be true as some one would be ahead between the two maybe not a lot maybe a lot but one would be ahead almost certainly.
So you cant just bet the opposite of what you think will win to go with variance your going with luck now .
And you might as well not bet at all M MaxiStavros .
 
Delboy99 said:
..... seems to me that often you are putting the cart before the horse. You take the time and trouble to look at 17 reasons or so for choosing under 2.50 goals then because you lost the last bet you go on to back over 2.50 goals on a completely different set of games with different opposition. Have you tried keeping a record of your bets as if you were backing your choice every day and then another record of your current method of reversal. You could then compare how each method is doing and at least discover which is worth continuing with. Currently you are taking time and trouble to find what you think is a good under 2.50 bet then you complete;y disregard your findings and back a different match because the previous one lost last time out. Makes no sense to me. ;)
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Delboy, it is no wonder it makes no sense to you as you clearly have not read what I am trying to do here, hence why you thought I lost £20 on a bet earlier in this thread. Every bet I am placing is based on picking a game that I think will be over 2.5 goals and I am stating what my profit/loss is if I just backed my selections to be over 2.5 goals. I am not trying to choose any match to be under 2.5 goals.
 
MaxiStavros said:
Delboy, it is no wonder it makes no sense to you as you clearly have not read what I am trying to do here, hence why you thought I lost £20 on a bet earlier in this thread. Every bet I am placing is based on picking a game that I think will be over 2.5 goals and I am stating what my profit/loss is if I just backed my selections to be over 2.5 goals. I am not trying to choose any match to be under 2.5 goals.
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....... absolute load of rubbish what you have just said and accusing me of not knowing what is going on. I know enough that what you are doing is down to pot luck and nothing else when you reverse. Gerry tried to tell you but you obviously do not like to hear anyone else's views. ;)
 
M MaxiStavros ,

For team -2.5 handicap (win by 3+), a sensible minimum bankroll for £10 level stakes is:


➡️ £500 (50 units)


Why £500?


  • From the longest-losing-streaks we discussed, over a big sample you should be ready for ~40–45 straight losses.
  • £10 × 45 ≈ £450 — and rounding up to £500 gives a small safety buffer.

If you want tiers:


  • Bare minimum: £450 (45 units) — OK if you won’t place tons of bets and your strike-rate is ≥25%.
  • Recommended floor: £600 (60 units) — better protection against form dips/clustering.
  • Very safe: £1,000 (100 units) — keeps risk-of-ruin low and stress lower.

Quick reuse rule: Bankroll ≈ Stake × (expected max losing streak + buffer). For -2.5, use ~45 as the streak, then round up.
 
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