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Under/over 2.5 goals - 100 bets record

Bet 10 = Ind Medellin 3-0 Atletico Bucaramanga = My pick won but bet lost = -£10.00. Total profit = -£4.55
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £14.19 in profit.
Next bet I will bet on my pick.

Bet 11 = Leixoes v Academico de Viseu, Portugal Liga 2, Kick off 20:15. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 2.38 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 1.67 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 11 = £10 on over 2.5 goals @ 2.38
 
Bet 11 = Leixoes 1-5 Academico de Viseu = My pick won and bet won = £13.52. Total profit = £8.97
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £27.71 in profit.
Next bet I will bet on my pick.

Bet 12 = Valenciennes v Quevilly Rouen, France Nacional, Kick off 18:30. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 2.28 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 1.73 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 12 = £10 on over 2.5 goals @ 2.28
 
Bet 12 = Valenciennes 2-0 Quevilly Rouen = My pick lost and bet lost = -£10.00. Total profit = -£1.03
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £17.71 in profit.
Next bet I will bet against my pick.

Bet 13 = Deportes Iquique v La Serena, Chile Liga De Primera, Kick off 20:30. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 1.94 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 2.02 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 13 = £10 on under 2.5 goals @ 2.02
 
Bet 13 = Deportes Iquique 1-2 La Serena = My pick won but bet lost = -£10.00. Total profit = -£11.03
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £26.92 in profit.
Next bet I will bet on my pick.

Bet 14 = Ferroviaria v Criciuma, Brazil Serie B, Kick off 00:35. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 2.38 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 1.69 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 14 = £10 on over 2.5 goals @ 2.38
 
Bet 14 = Ferroviaria 0-0 Criciuma = My pick lost and bet lost = -£10.00. Total profit = -£21.03
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £16.92 in profit.
Next bet I will bet against my pick.

This current run of O, U, O, U is proving costly but I am committed to recording 100 bets and thinking of ways to combat runs like this so that it is not costly. For example maybe only switch after 2 consecutive losses.

Bet 15 = Anyang v Ulsan, South Korea, K League 1, Kick off 07:30. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 2.00 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 1.96 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 15 = £10 on under 2.5 goals @ 1.96
 
MaxiStavros said:
Bet 14 = Ferroviaria 0-0 Criciuma = My pick lost and bet lost = -£10.00. Total profit = -£21.03
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £16.92 in profit.
Next bet I will bet against my pick.

This current run of O, U, O, U is proving costly but I am committed to recording 100 bets and thinking of ways to combat runs like this so that it is not costly. For example maybe only switch after 2 consecutive losses.

Bet 15 = Anyang v Ulsan, South Korea, K League 1, Kick off 07:30. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 2.00 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 1.96 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 15 = £10 on under 2.5 goals @ 1.96
Click to expand...
I mentioned earlier that tactics might be needed M MaxiStavros , for instance isn't it likely that to achieve over 2,5 goals both teams might need to score ( i have no stats to support this thought ) just asking because if not one team would need to score three goals which while stating the obvious sounds plenty.

SPURS V CHELSEA looks like a game that might produce a few goals but i don't see any tactical advantages but maybe you can find better.

Over 2.5 ...1.86, under 2.14

BTTS ....1.69 or not to score ...2.4
 
Thanks Tucker. I definitely agree about the Spurs v Chelsea game looks to have goals, I am surprised over 2.5 goals is as high as 1.86, will be interesting to see those odds at kick off, it is the sort of game in the past I'd put £300 on over 2.5 goals with the aim to lay £300 @ hopefully around 1.75 before kick off. (Must never let such a bet go in play though - got to take the loss before kick off if you got it wrong).
The over 2.5 or BTTS has always been a dilemma, I have always seen it as an either or and about as tricky as each other. The advantage of BTTS is that it requires a goal less and 1-1 will win you a bet that over 2.5 goals doesn't. However, whenever a match goes 2-0 or 0-2 at least you have two teams fighting for your bet. I have experimented with BTTS bets and my overall opinion is that they are just as tough as over 2.5 goals.
Here are last seasons matches in England for BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
Last season in the Premier League = 380 matches played: 213 BTTS won, 215 over 2.5 goals won.
Last season in the championship including the play odds = 557 matches played: 280 BTTS won, 249 over 2.5 goals won.
Last season in League 1 including play offs = 557 matches played: 287 BTTS won, 278 over 2.5 goals won.
Last season in League 2 including play offs: 557 matches played: 271 BTTS won, 253 over 2.5 goals won.
Total = 2051 matches: BTTS won = 1051 (51.2%), over 2.5 goals = 995 won (48.5%).
So in England at least yes there is more chance of BTTS to win than over 2.5 goals but I think for myself at least I am more interested in experimenting with trying to make money by taking advantage of trends in my own form and/or trends in when goals are hot/cold. But if I end up back to the drawing board I may think again about BTTS bets.
 
Bet 15 = Anyang 3-1 Ulsan = My pick won but my bet lost = -£10.00. Total profit = -£31.03
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £26.72 in profit.
Next bet I will bet on my pick.

This is really annoying that I am currently on a run of O, U, O, U, O it certainly is highlighting a flaw to this strategy but it is only 15 bets in. I don't like betting on under bets, I feel like every time I check the score I am going to see another goal has been scored but the stats show that under 2.5 goals wins more than over when betting on most leagues around the world.

Bet 16 = Chelmsford v Braintree, England FA cup, Kick off 12:00. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 1.96 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 2.00 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 16 = £10 on over 2.5 goals @ 1.96
 
Bet 16 = Chelmsford 2-1 Braintree after 41 mins = My pick won and bet won = +£9.40. Total profit = -£21.63
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £36.12 in profit.
Next bet I will bet on my pick again.

Bet 17 = Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Botev Plovdiv, Bulgaria, Kick off 12:45. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 2.38 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 1.68 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 17 = £10 on over 2.5 goals @ 2.38
 
Bet 17 was abandoned after 40 mins at 1-1. Bet void.
New bet 17 = Carrarese v Frosinone, Italy Serie B, kick off 14:00. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match
Over 2.5 goals = 2.02 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 1.98 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 17 = £10 on over 2.5 goals @ 2.02
 
Bet 17 = Carrarese 0-2 Frosinone = My pick lost and bet lost = -£10.00. Total profit = -£31.63
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £26.12 in profit.
Next bet I will bet against my pick again.

Bet 18 = Cork City v Derry City, Ireland Premier Division, Kick off 16:30. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 2.10 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 1.87 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 18 = £10 on under 2.5 goals @ 1.87
 
Bet 18 = Cork City 0-1 Derry = My pick lost but bet won = +£8.52. Total profit = -£23.11
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £16.12 in profit.
Next bet I will bet against my pick again.

Bet 19 = Cremonese v Juventus, Italy Serie A, Kick off 19:45. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 1.92 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 2.08 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 19 = £10 on under 2.5 goals @ 2.08
 
Thanks Michael. It is an interesting thought to try such a thing at roulette but when it comes to picking a bet on red/black, even/odd, high/low I wouldn't have a strong feeling for either or so I think I would soon start questioning my picks. But you are right, anything which has approximately a 50/50 chance is going to in theory have approximately 50 wins and 50 losses per 100 bets with streaks of wins and losses and I am curious whether it is possible to capitalise on that? At the moment on this 100 bets I am recording I am struggling with being in mixed form of winning and losing every other bet so maybe I need to make changes to what I am doing.
The idea came from recording my over 2.5 goal bets this year, I have been so up and down it's ridiculous. I had two really amazing months this year where I ran so hot and was making great profits but then had 3 months which were a total disaster, I just could not win a bet. Before I came on here I was recording over 2.5 goal bets and lost 21 of my last 25 over 2.5 goal bets. When I was losing bet after bet I was thinking to myself why am I still betting on my picks when I keep losing? Why don't I bet against myself and wouldn't betting against myself when I am on a cooler stop me having bad months?

Tacker - I watched the Tottenham v Chelsea game, I too thought that would be a game with goals. But Tottenham were terribly disappointing, they created absolutely nothing - and it shows with the xG of 0.05 expected goals tonight. Chelsea looked really good and dangerous going forwards, not sure how they didn't score more goals. But it shows how difficult the over 2.5 goals bet is, it is hard to believe that in an hour and a half of football when there are so many good attacking players on the pitch that only one goal was scored. Last season this fixture was Spurs 3-4 Chelsea, although Ange Postecoglu was manager in that game.
I noticed that game went off at odds of 1.83 on the exchanges for over 2.5 goals which was higher than I expected and shows that some people had more idea than me about the chances being how this game would go. I wish I knew what made them think that.
 
I have seen runs up to double figures of one colour or the other, which if using the idea of stick to what ever is working, so if you get a run going it could work, so to me I can see why you are looking at this approach.
I'm trying to think of how to improve on it but will have to get back to you on that one.
But we do know that it can go red black red black and so on for a long run as well, it's just trying to work out when to expect that run and keep ahead of the curve.
 
Bet 19 = Cremonese 1-2 Juventus = My pick won but bet lost = -£10.00. Total profit = -£33.11
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £25.13 in profit.
Next bet I will bet on my pick again.

Bet 20 = Gornik Zabrze v Arka Gdynia, Poland Ekstraklasa, Kick off 11:15. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 1.85 on the Betfair Exchange
Under 2.5 goals = 2.16 on the Betfair Exchange

Bet 20 = £10 on over 2.5 goals @ 1.85
 
Michael231 said:
I have seen runs up to double figures of one colour or the other, which if using the idea of stick to what ever is working, so if you get a run going it could work, so to me I can see why you are looking at this approach.
I'm trying to think of how to improve on it but will have to get back to you on that one.
But we do know that it can go red black red black and so on for a long run as well, it's just trying to work out when to expect that run and keep ahead of the curve.
Click to expand...
I think everyone who bets will agree winning streaks and losing streaks happen. Losing streaks seem more common though. And as you say you can be on a roulette table and see long streaks of black or red/ high or low numbers it is just normal and natural but long term it should come back to somewhere in the middle if the odds are accurate. Right now I feel like I am in average form - hence my profit after 19 bets if I bet on my selections I am slightly in profit and therefore maybe my current strategy of switching after just one loss is too soon.

There is another flaw in this betting strategy - yesterday afternoon there were hundreds of games on, I ideally wanted to put around a dozen bets on in the afternoon matches but for the sake of this strategy I want to stick to the same rule of one bet at a time.

As for my bets, I pick the over 2.5 goal bets in the same way every time - looking for the same things and I record the results on a s/s so I can look at different ideas of how to find an optimal way of switching my bets when I am running hot/cold.
 
Bet 20 = Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Arka after 50 mins = My pick won and bet won = +£8.33. Total profit = -£24.78
Had I bet on all my own picks I would be £33.46 in profit.
Next bet I will bet on my pick again.

Bet 21 = Banik Ostrava II v Vlasim, Czech CHNL (2nd division), Kick off 12:30. I fancy over 2.5 goals in this match.
Over 2.5 goals = 1.75 on William Hill
Under 2.5 goals = 2.00 on William Hill

Bet 21: £10 on over 2.5 goals @ 1.75.
 
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