• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
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    AR

Under 4.5 goal system (another internet-found test)

Anyway... back to the task in hand.

2 games last night... a La Liga 2 game where the initial bet actually kicked in and then fortunately managed to green up at 1.01 before the game got hairy with 4 goals and a red card, and a Croatian game which the system stop loss bet kicked in while the game was 2-2 and had a red card as well. Even though the game finished under 4.5 goals, I'm still glad the stop loss green up triggered and that the automation recognises the need to happen when it does. The system might have made a tiny loss on the night because of it (8p !), but of the 23 matches so far recorded, it has only triggered 3 times - in my view an acceptable small loss each time compared to the potential big loss that can happen if it didn't.

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Ouch - there goes my profit ! The Stuttgart game was predicted to be 1-0... not have 6 goals !

I think there were 2 main contributing factors here...
1. it's from a league that averages over 2.8 goals a game, which is high. Despite SV's prediction of a single goal, the high average for the league means I should have expected the odd loser. I now won't bet with games in leagues over a certain goal average, say 2.65, or only 0-1 predictions as I believe the home advantage does count for something.
2. the Covid-19 beak has meant that teams are coming back with different circumstances than as if it was mid-season, but SV are continuing their prediction analysis as if there has been no change at all. All the more reason to stick to leagues that don't average lots of goals.

Nice to see the automation work well with the Osasuna v At Madrid - despite a 5 goal game, it still made a profit (albeit 25p). A little annoyed though that a lot of the other night's fixtures didn't take due to low odds... and I will need to look again at the automation as despite not kicking in with the initial bets, I'm sure that there were additional bet opportunities that should have triggered considering 2 games had 4 goals in them.

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A round-up of the last 2 days of games, and also showing a couple of qualifiers that didn't get included in the original game listing;

1592642124122.png

The plan is back in the black with a running profit now of £0.23p !

1592643502345.png

A slight change to the plan parameters...
1. I am going to include 1-2 scoreline predictions from SV, but only from low-scoring leagues. Based on the premise that home advantage counts for something, I think it is worth exploring, especially considering the plan needs to get more 1st, 2nd and 3rd bets in to make it worthwhile and to cover the stop loss greening.
2. Only bet in leagues with recent stats for SV to work on. Since it looks like they are just continuing on from where leagues left off before the Covid-19 break, the predictions themselves aren't in my opinion trustworthy. For example - the Russian Premier League returned last night from their enforced break and SV predicted a 2-2 scoreline between Sochi and Rostov (in a league with traditionally low goals average) - it finished 10-1 !!
3. Of the 43 recorded games so far, a third resulted with no bets. I still like to keep the initial 1st bet set at over 1.07 to trigger, but hopefully the 1st point will contribute to dropping that %.
4. I shall still include picks from higher leagues, but they will be inspected before adding as I only want to include them if the prediction is 0-1 and both teams are in the bottom half

It's worth noting that this plan can only be run using real money (although BetAngel does allow a practice mode without using real money) as it is a test of the automation and how it reacts to the football dynamic of real-time action. Fortunately this it hasn't so far resulted in a big loss of my hard-earned cash, which is the reassuring part considering it's in its infancy and development stage. And the more I learn about it as I build up the data, the better/more profitable I should be able to make it. My only concern is that with the situation that Covid-19 has created for football and sport in general, will that data be in any way reliable at the moment, or for when things return to normal (see point 2 above to see how unexpected final scores can finish with !) ?
 
Another change - this time to the automation. While watching a couple of games and the automation behind it, there was a point in one of them (Isloch v Torpedo BelAZ) where 1st, 2nd and 3rd bets were placed, and the green up profit went to a possible +£2.57 ! Then another goal went in right at the end of the match (2-2), and then the stop loss green-up tried to kick in (fortunately I was able to stop it before the bets were taken, otherwise the game would have had a -£0.32p loss instead).
This has prompted me to add another rule - if the game through having several bet triggers makes it to a position where there's a green-up profit of £2.00+, then it will trigger/green up. I think it's a good rule because it hopefully not only makes the plan more managed/controlled for the whole 90 minutes and reduce the amount of stop loss bets kicking in, but should make the system more profitable and dip less into red during the progress of the game - much more ideal if I want it to run without supervision.
 
Hi Paul and Retriever, been reading this thread with interest and I noticed Retriever mentioned seeing how the results go when the predictions sites agree. Anyway I'm happy to help with this is I can. I also look at bettingtips and bettingclosed as they give correct score predictions too. I had a look at todays matches and there seems to be broad agreement on these scores today:

Man City v Burnley 3-0
Portimonense v Maritimo 1-0
Lamia v Panionios 1-0
Dynamo Kiev v Kolos Kovalivka 3-0

The above have agreement across 3 of the 4 sites but forebet disagrees on the Man city game and the Portimonense game predicting 3-1 and 1-1 respectively.
 
Hi N Norn iron I started cross-checking the Bundesliga1 league - probably only halfway through atm - but as I do, I very easily get sidetracked onto something else. It will be interesting to see how your scores turn out.

It was whilst checking that I saw a pattern or possible method, for predicting correct draws, and as the Bundesliga checks weren't really showing anything positive, I thought I, or we, could predict better than the 'site agreements'. So I have 'shelved' the checks for the moment and started thinking about this possible method of mine.

But now this has been shelved - and I blame paulb164 paulb164 😂 for this, as he has been talking about Bet Angel ( I hadn't been using it lately ) - and I am back there with another project. But this time, I am sorry to say, it involves Horses, HRB and BA with Excel spreadsheets

I had not ventured into using Excel with BA before but with the bits and pieces I have learnt over the past few months, I'm giving another idea ( hopefully profitable ) a good crack of the whip.

I reckon that if I was paid for my ideas, I'd be rich. If I was paid for 'projects finished' I would have starved to death years ago.....lol.
 
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Haha you sound like me! I'm happy to keep checking to see how it goes anyway. So far no good! Good luck with the horses. I follow a few tipsters, one proform guy is pretty good.
 
Quite a few matches match between vista and forebet today and a few draws for Retriever!
Spurs 3-0
Cagliari to win 2-1
Napoli to win 2-1
Parma to win 2-1
Benfica to win 2-0
Getafe to win 2-0
Hapoel Beer 1-1
Hapoel tel Aviv to win 2-0
Lugo 1-1.

All 4 sites predicted Torino to draw but different scores
3 sites predicted Barca 3-0 apart from forebet which predicted 3-1.
 
Sorry guys - I am going to put this on hold. I just don't think that the predictions from SV are very reliable at the moment and it's pointless (not to mention money-losing) to continue the plan in the current climate. No crowds mean no home advantage, the SV predictions are based on ongoing stats which don't take into account the 3 month break, teams are losing players when their contracts expire before the end of their rescheduled seasons... and there's loads more reasons as well. It's a chaotic time for football betting, and I don't want to get involved with it. I'm convinced of the potential of this plan, but it doesn't stand a chance at the moment until the football world settles down to normality (which in my opinion won't be until the next season).
So another prolonged break from betting (not necessarily a bad thing), or perhaps I should take a walk into foreign territory and look at the 4 legged betting ?
 
MAN UTD v SHEFF UTD

The main factor here is that sheff are without O'connell at the back, also Henderson can't play. Add to that most have forgot how to kick a ball let alone score a goal. Man utd looked good against spurs and have plenty of goal scorers in the side, these two finished 3-3 at the lane but logic dictates that we are looking at a 4 or 5 nil win for man utd tonight. Obviously man utd could have a man sent off early or even two, which brings me on to possible lightening storm or VAR, owt might happen when you think about it, I think i'd better think it out again.
 
tacker said:
MAN UTD v SHEFF UTD

The main factor here is that sheff are without O'connell at the back, also Henderson can't play. Add to that most have forgot how to kick a ball let alone score a goal. Man utd looked good against spurs and have plenty of goal scorers in the side, these two finished 3-3 at the lane but logic dictates that we are looking at a 4 or 5 nil win for man utd tonight. Obviously man utd could have a man sent off early or even two, which brings me on to possible lightening storm or VAR, owt might happen when you think about it, I think i'd better think it out again.
Click to expand...
the Covid-19 issue affects current games in many new ways that make prediction almost impossible in my opinion. Take point 2 of my post #24 in this thread - I have since found out that the incredible 10-1 scoreline was the result of the away side's 1st team being in quarantine, and having to field the youth team instead ! SV's mathematical-based prediction is never going to factor that kind of thing in, so at the moment I can't trust their data.
 
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