Under 4.5 goal system (another internet-found test)

[paulb164]

Hey guys,
Now the football has returned, I wanted to set something up for my Bet Angel automation, and while looking through their forum pages, someone on there asked about setting up a variation automation based on something they came across on the web. The link is below;

Making money on betfair the safe way

This document provides instructions for making money by betting on soccer matches using the Betfair betting exchange. It recommends betting on the "under 4.5 goals" market and trading out of positions for guaranteed profits as odds change during matches. Starting with £100, it is estimated one...

www.slideshare.net

Basically, it tries to sell a system based on the under 4.5 goal market. It suggests a compound betting plan, which I won't follow exactly as I want the automation to manage the betting, and I'm only comfortable working with a 100% stake compound bet if I have full control over it i.e. actively watching the game in-play. After reading it, and also because a lot of my football strategies are based on projected goals scored, it got me interested in setting up an automation loosely based on it,, or at least the premise of what it tries to preach. Most of it is common sense, but I thought I would do a test and go through the motions of trying to make it profitable with automation. I also want it to be able to be used by anyone if it turns out to be successful, so I won't actually be relying on my own databases for games to bet on. Instead I'll use statistical sites, primarily Soccervista.

So, the rules (and remember I may tweak these along the way if it looks like it needs it or to boost profitability);
1. Only pick from low-scoring average leagues - to find those out, Soccervista have a table in the 'statistics' page to show these. Of particular interest is the listing leagues of which games average under 3.5 goals... I'll start with all leagues which average no more than 25% of their games over 3.5 goals (remember we still have a goal buffer as I will only bet on under 4.5 goals)
2. Only pick games from these leagues which Soccervista predict scorelines of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1... I expect there will be quite a few qualifiers with low-scoring leagues having these scorelines predicted
3. Obviously only games that Betfair are running with in-play betting
4. Leagues with 25% of season played (despite the Covid-19 interruption - will be interesting to see how Soccervista's predictions fare with this issue)
6. No obscure leagues (with little or no volume/liquidity in the BF market)

I'll set the automation up to do the following;
1. £5 bet on the under 4.5 goal market just before the match starts - I will expect the odds to be around a paltry 1.1 or so
2. if the odds go over 1.25 (i.e. from having a goal or 2 go in, and which will also depend on when the that goal is scored), a bet of £2.50 will be added
3. if the odds go over 1.5 (i.e. again in response to goals), a further bet of £2.50 will be added
4. if the odds go down to 1.01 (i.e. through lack of goals or the stage in the match where the market thinks the game will finish with less than 5 goals) it will green up.
5. As I'm always conscious of the mad period in the last 5 mins when goals can be scored, it will also green up at that point regardless - hopefully the 4th point greening up will have happened by then so no effect by point 5 should happen. This also provides a stop loss for the system should there be 4 goals scored at that point, where I will expect either a small profit or small loss if this kicks in, which in my opinion is crucial to the health of the system.

I'm looking forward to seeing how this one plays out, as while you can maybe predict the goal amount likelyhood, you can't really predict before the match when they will be scored, and hopefully the 2 in-play bets will kick in from time to time to enhance profit. I may even pick games outside the above parameters in certain circumstances e.g. bottom 2 teams of a league playing each other.

 

[paulb164]

I've set the automation up, and have been working on the XLS spreadsheet to download and highlight the qualifying games this afternoon. 3 of the test games have played, and so far the automation has worked to provide a small profit.



I have been monitoring the Santander v Lugo game to see if there are any kinks in the automation, or if the game dynamic requires any automation changes, and I think there will be some rules added -
1. Starting odds were 1.04 - I was risking £5 to win 20p (even less considering the green-up adjustment and commission). I think I'll put a minimum odds bet of around 1.09 to make the gamble worth it
2. Clearly the betting world believed this game was never going to achieve 5 goals - despite a red card and 3 goals by the 72nd minute, at no point did the odds rise above 1.12 throughout the entire game. I may have to pick from slightly riskier/higher goal averaged leagues to get better odds and results

 

[paulb164]

The first 6 test games are done, with profits on all of them;



Early observations;
- All 6 matches managed to green up by around HT due to no goals being scored up to that point. Unfortunately and despite Zaragoza v Alcorcon's game having 4 goals in it, none of the additional bets came into play. Too early to tell if this is the norm based on the fact that the games were mainly from low-scoring leagues, and therefore unlikely to see those extra bets kick in except for early goals, and probably not even then, but I feel I need at this point to include higher-scoring leagues (but still where Soccervista predict it will have a low-scoring result).
- A quick check with the automation and it may be that the extra bets aren't kicking in because the rules need tweaking - I have added a couple of extra rules which should allow more control over the additional bets, and will monitor them with today's games
- Red cards often have a huge impact... in both the qualifying games which had them, the final scores were quite close to the 4 goal limit of plan success. With the Zaragoza v Alcorcon game in point, even though the red card came as late as the 78th minute, it still pushed the balance of the game to the extent that 2 further goals were scored in the last 13 minutes or so.
- So far, Soccervista has been pretty good at identifying low-scoring games, and it remains to be seen whether predictions within other leagues with more goal averages will be equally as accurate
- As it currently stands, this is a slow-burner and won't make me a millionaire overnight. If the extra bets don't start kicking in soon, then compounding stakes will be the only way this system can progress with any decent profit. But I'd like to see more results for the test before I start increasing stakes.

 

[paulb164]

Today's games;



The highlighted games are from higher scoring leagues, but with only a goal predicted by SV to be scored. As the leagues return to normalcy, I'll add more into my spreadsheet for finding qualifying games.

 

[djb38]

Love these type of low risk/slow burner systems, and will follow with great interest.
I remember a guy on the betfair forum (from a long long time ago!) who, if I remember rightly, used to back the u4.5 and place a small insurance on the o6.5 which could be an option for using games from the higher scoring leagues?
Or is it worth backing the u5.5 only with the higher scoring leagues if the odds are worthwhile?
Either way, best of luck with the thread, I really like the idea of adding to the stake when a goal or two go in, which makes the odds more attractive.
Delboy99 may have 1 or 2 good pointers for the low scoring games

 

[gary longstaff]

Well done paulb164 , looking good

 

[retriever]

Hello, finger monkey - good to see you around here again - hope you are well. Good luck with this system.

Soccervista looks to be very good with its selections in this area - a lot better than Forebet, which I find is 'goal heavy' in its predictions. It also predicts further into the future, unlike Forebet, which only seems to do one round at a time.

Interesting that 5 of the first 6 matches were 0-0 at half time. I think odds are around 6/4 for that HT scoreline.
I will be watching that area with interest.

Looking at your picks today and onwards - could you tell me why you haven't included - Ponferradina v Elche (1-1), Tenerife v Malaga (1-0) - from tomorrows Spain La Liga 2 matches, please?
Just looking to understand your selection process and/or filters. Thanks.

 

[paulb164]

Hello, finger monkey - good to see you around here again - hope you are well. Good luck with this system.

Soccervista looks to be very good with its selections in this area - a lot better than Forebet, which I find is 'goal heavy' in its predictions. It also predicts further into the future, unlike Forebet, which only seems to do one round at a time.

Interesting that 5 of the first 6 matches were 0-0 at half time. I think odds are around 6/4 for that HT scoreline.
I will be watching that area with interest.

Looking at your picks today and onwards - could you tell me why you haven't included - Ponferradina v Elche (1-1), Tenerife v Malaga (1-0) - from tomorrows Spain La Liga 2 matches, please?
Just looking to understand your selection process and/or filters. Thanks.

hey retriever,
I did see them, and will very likely include them after today's games. I don't post or consider the next round of games until the previous round has been fully played. This is because some teams haven't played the current rounds yet, and the results from those games will have an influence on their next round of games (they may have a goalfest for instance, leading SV's predictions on their predicted scorelines to change). In the 2 games you highlighted, they could have been included as their previous rounds have already been played, but in other leagues or scenarios (congested fixtures, postponed matches, etc) there are often issues and it's easier if I'm relying on SV's predictions to let each round play out before looking at the next round of games.

 

[paulb164]

Love these type of low risk/slow burner systems, and will follow with great interest.
I remember a guy on the betfair forum (from a long long time ago!) who, if I remember rightly, used to back the u4.5 and place a small insurance on the o6.5 which could be an option for using games from the higher scoring leagues?
Or is it worth backing the u5.5 only with the higher scoring leagues if the odds are worthwhile?
Either way, best of luck with the thread, I really like the idea of adding to the stake when a goal or two go in, which makes the odds more attractive.
Delboy99 may have 1 or 2 good pointers for the low scoring games

hey D djb38,
it's good to have something like this in your arsenal (no pun intended) - if it turns out to be a decent system then it will fulfil the premise of a low-maintenance, steady earner over time, which was what I wanted to have as I don't really have one at the moment, and I'm finding my free time at the mo getting less and less. And hopefully other people can see what it takes to come up with systems through me diarising my efforts to make it a good one.

 

[paulb164]

First 2 games of the day played (Bundesliga 2), and worth noting that despite SV predicting 2 x single goal games, they were from a league that averages 2.8 goals per game, and both matches finished with 3 goals in each. That is why I don't want to use high averaging leagues - at the most they should be classed as average-scoring leagues. The third game in that league which SV rated as a 2-2 game finished with 5 goals !

I only included these games as I wanted to see how the automation reacted to games with goals as the additional bet rules weren't triggered with yesterday's games. The rules didn't work perfectly, and I still need to make minor adjustments but will get there. But nice to get 2 higher-profitable results on the board - profit on those 2 games alone were more than all 6 games combined yesterday, proving (probably) that the plan needs the additional bets to kick in from time to time to make it worthwhile, and that just may be down to what balance of leagues I pick from.

 

[retriever]

Soccervista looks to be very good with its selections in this area - a lot better than Forebet, which I find is 'goal heavy' in its predictions.

Not the case in this match..... Just shows there can be such a variance between different predictive selection sites.

 

[paulb164]

Not the case in this match..... Just shows there can be such a variance between different predictive selection sites.

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Yup - each site has their own algorithms for calculating their predictions... never did find one that was totally reliable. It's just as well we're using the under 4.5 goal market to provide the buffer for games with unexpected goals. It's worth noting that the market also thought this game was a low-scorer as the additional bets never kicked in on the automation, so the odds never reached 1.25+. This was also the last round of the Bulgarian domestic season, and with the Covid-19 break also levelling the playing field it's going to be difficult for any site to get these games right. Under normal conditions I don't normally bet on last-round games as often they tend to be dead rubbers and anything can happen, but I want this system to be simple and not introduce loads of conditions to it if I can.

 

[paulb164]

Weekend's results are in;



Observations;
- With the introduction of a minimum odds rule on the starting odds of 1.07, 2 games didn't achieve a bet. If those matches had early goals then the additional bets would kick in, but the Spanish La Liga 2 is a low-scorer and so unlikely to happen.
- 2 games required the stop loss green-up as they had 4 goals scored by the 88th minute - pleased that this kicked in automatically for a small loss (which it does if odds for the market is over 1.15 indicating high goals... if there were only 3 goals scored then the normal greening rule kicks in which is at 0.01)
- The Czech league is regarded by SV as an average league for goals, with an average of 2.65 per game. I (SV) picked 4 games for this weekend, and it was good to see the additional bets kick in due to goals and odds movement. Even with the stop loss greening that 2 of the games incurred, the league still produced a profit for the system. Over time, I will see how likely games actually hit the 5 goals, and it may mean that I could remove that stop loss rule if it more profitable to let the games play out instead
- The graph clearly has a more upwardly direction when the additional bets kick in, as opposed to relying on just the starting bets, so I think I need to use more leagues in this.
- Yet to see any picks go over 4 goals though only 17 games in). If the stop loss greening was not in place the balance would be over £10 now. Mind you if just one of those games did get 5 goals in it without a stop loss, then I'd be much nearer £0 profit, so happy to keep it for now until I get more data to analyse

 

[paulb164]

Upcoming games;



I'd should probably add the Levante v Sevilla to this (SV predicts 0-1), and the Silkeborg v OB game as it's relegation battle

 

[paulb164]

Tonight's results;



I wasn't sure whether to include those 2 games after the list, but have decided to keep the Spanish La Liga game as it did qualify under the current rules of the system. The Danish game did not, and just as well as it had 6 goals. I want the record-keeping of the games and their results to be accurate and proper to the system, so the above results reflect this. I won't be able to analyse the data periodically if it isn't following exactly to the plan.
So, another good steady profit for the evening, with the P/L a shade under £10 now. Frustratingly, only 2 games contributed to the profit due to low starting odds again in the 2 La Liga 2 games.

 

[paulb164]

For the low-scoring leagues, I'm considering adding the 0-2 scoreline to the qualifying picks. The beauty of Soccervista is that you can go back in time on the main page to see an overview of their predictions and results to see how accurate they were. I'll do that for a few weeks back to see if that is a viable option as it seems pointless (especially for the Spanish La Liga 2 for instance) including these leagues in this system as they just don't get any backing in the market.

 

[retriever]

The beauty of Soccervista is that you can go back in time on the main page to see an overview of their predictions

I didn't know that was possible, as I read on the FAQ page......Do you have a history of picks?
(Answer) I do not have any betting history available at this time.

So that's good.

I thought the same with Forebet, but I have just seen that if you click on 'results' and then each game, you can see the predictions going way back.
A little long-winded, but then you get nought for nought.

Although not related to this thread, this has got me thinking - would there be any value in picks where both sites predicted the same score?
One I noted for yesterday.....Real Betis v Granada.....both selected a 2-2 scoreline......result 2-2

paulb164 If you have a spreadsheet template of results for the low scoring leagues that you are interested in from those checked with Soccervista, I can add-in score predictions from Forebet if you like. Might throw up some additional angles.

 

[paulb164]

Although not related to this thread, this has got me thinking - would there be any value in picks where both sites predicted the same score?
One I noted for yesterday.....Real Betis v Granada.....both selected a 2-2 scoreline......result 2-2

Oohhh, I like that idea. Would be very labour intensive and manual though, unless anyone out there fancies a challenge ? Predicting a winning 2-2 scoreline on BF has got to be around 20/1 odds !

We could have a small committee where each member has 1 or 2 leagues to check, and let a thread on here know when they come up with a matching pair ?

 

[retriever]

You draw up a list of which leagues take your fancy, say 10 for starters. Keep any work done still relating to your thread here.

We could start a new thread on the IS - most of the football peeps on here are green.
As you say it will be labour intensive but we need only cover this season so far to garner an idea.

Yesterday's Portugal match between Maritimo v Gil Vicente - both predicted 1-1 - and it was only an own goal that made it 2-1 (to me OG's are 'invisible' goals, and should be discounted for data purposes).

My personal angle with football is to find Draws.

 

[paulb164]

Just as a minor diversion, I have checked the Portuguese Primeira round 27, and there are 3 games which SV and FB match;



Will see with interest just how accurate they are when they both predict the same. With just 1 out of 3 coming in there's a profit !