Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day

[ThinkingAloud]

Invincible Speed for me

 

[pawras]

Well done anyone on Freddies Star, the money hit in the last 5 mins or so to make it fav so 1-n certainly had it pegged.

 

[markfinn]

When he is not Eating Hamsters and sending out Cheltenham winners - he reminds us not to forget him - have to smile

 

[markfinn]

 

[Cashelman]

High Dancer
Kool Raoul

 

[tacker]

A race where lots of inconsistent form exist so a difficult one to unfathom.
HIGH DANCER sets the standard with a close 2nd behind CREBILLY and followed up by beating PERSEUS WAY who very much boosted the form but then was only 6th lto catt 22f off todays mark of 120.
Might be good enough but he does have to give 13lbs to KOOL RAOUL who showed a different level of form in winning with plenty in hand last time out, up 6lbs for that looks lenient but the fear that the steady pace helped, hard to know but i'll go for KOOL RAOUL but won't be betting.

 

[pawras]

High Dancer and Kool Raoul

 

[Michael231]

After yesterday's day off back to business hopefully with a winner.
Today's two for the race are: High Dancer and Hopeless Dancer

14:45 carpetgallop.co.uk Handicap Hurdle Hexham • Hurdle • 2m 4f 28y • Good • Class 4

CONVERGENCE ALERT — 2 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning

Horse	Odds	Signals	Verdict
High Dancer	7/2	RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · C/D winner · trainer 42% w/Front Runners	TOP PICK
Titanium Ring	9/4	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · SP↓ vs last run	NOT BOWERS BUT!

PERFECTLY BALANCED RACE • Weight range: 144–168lbs (24lbs spread) • Midpoint: 156.0lbs • Median weight (155lbs) is 1.0lbs from midpoint — Bowers weight ×1.3 (historically +21.8% ROI) • Median OR: 107 (OR ✓ = at/above median)

Draw: Hexham not in draw database — neutral scores applied

Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Very hot pace expected

Front Runner

High Dancer
60% FR • Stall
Hopeless Dancer
80% FR • Stall
Snowrocco
78% FR • Stall

Prominent

Kool Raoul (FR)
50% FR • Stall
Titanium Ring
40% FR • Stall

Versatile

None

Hold-Up

Bobby Socks
0% FR • Stall

3 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Bobby Socks (Stall )

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	High Dancer p N G Richards / Danny McMenamin		120 ✓	7/2 SP 4.5 card: 9/2	168	111	#1	Front Runner 60% FR / 0% HU 9/10 10 runs	— 3/5 Stall	Backed 5.5→7/2 ✓ Course winner | Beaten fav Won prev run RPR 129 vs OR 120 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR improving +10pts last 3 runs | TS 112 — at/above career best RaceIQ FSP 105% last run (Cartmel) — finished well above par Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class drop (Cls 3→4) ✓ 111 days — long absence 🏋 Trainer 42% with Front Runners (58/137) +4.67	40% Moderate	12.82	TOP PICK C bf
4✓ 0✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✓	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
2	Kool Raoul (FR) L Russell & M Scudamore / P W Wadge		107 ✓	2/1 3.0	155	17	#3	Prominent 50% FR / 25% HU 9/10 8 runs	— 3/5 Stall	SP shorter than last run (4.5→3.0) ✓ | won last run — placed profile ✓ Course winner | Distance winner Won last run RPR 110 vs OR 107 — slight edge | RPR declining -10pts Master Rating +0 (as expected) +4.3	0% Poor	12.01	CONTENDER CD
4✓ 0✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✓	Draw ~	RPR ?	Trainer ✓
3	Titanium Ring H D Daly / Stan Sheppard		105	9/4 SP 3.25 card: 11/2	153	202	#4	Prominent 40% FR / 0% HU 10/10 5 runs	— 3/5 Stall	Strongly backed 6.5→9/4 SP shorter than last run (4.5→3.2) ✓ Beaten fav RPR 110 vs OR 105 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR declining -6pts | RPR 6pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ | TS 95 — at/above career best 🌦 Going stretch (Good) 202 days — very long absence +1.8	20% Weak	9.78	NOT BOWERS BUT! bf
1✓ 2✗	Going ✗	Distance ?	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
4	Hopeless Dancer T Reed / Harry Reed		100	14/1 SP 15.0 card: 12/1	148	338	#5	Front Runner 80% FR / 20% HU 8/10 5 runs	— 3/5 Stall	Drifting 13.0→14/1 SP longer than last run (1.4→15.0) | 2nd last run — placed profile ✓ Beaten fav 2nd last run | Consistent placer RPR 109 vs OR 100 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR 4pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ RaceIQ FSP trending up +7pts over last 2 runs 338 days — very long absence 🏋 Trainer 18% with Front Runners (2/11) IV 3.18 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ | staying trips ✓ +3.0	40% Moderate	9.25	ELIMINATED bf
3✓ 0✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ?	Form ✓	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
5	Snowrocco t A Nicol / Ryan Mania		110 ✓	12/1 SP 13.0 card: 16/1	158	220	#2	Front Runner 78% FR / 22% HU 9/10 9 runs	— 3/5 Stall	Backed 17.0→12/1 ✓ SP longer than last run (7.0→13.0) | Quick turnaround (11 days) ✓ RPR 116 vs OR 110 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR 5pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ RaceIQ FSP trending down -12pts over last 3 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🌦 Going stretch (Good) 220 days — very long absence Trainer 28% at Hexham (5/18) 🏋 Trainer 29% with Front Runners (26/91) ✓ IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields | staying trips +0.51	20% Weak	8.23	WATCH
2✓ 2✗	Going ✗	Distance ?	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
6	Bobby Socks t p Lizzie Quinlan / Sean Quinlan		96	10/1 SP 11.0 card: 10/1	144	17	#6	Hold-Up 0% FR / 80% HU 0/10 5 runs	— 3/5 Stall	Steady at 10/1 SP shorter than last run (15.0→11.0) ✓ | 2nd last run — placed profile ✓ Distance winner 2nd last run RPR 97 vs OR 96 — slight edge Master Rating -1 (as expected) Slight class rise (Cls 5→4) +2.8	0% Poor	6.86	ELIMINATED D
2✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ?	Trainer ?
7	Sunset Hill p S Corbett / Nathan Moscrop		112 ✓	18/1 SP 19.0 card: 8/1	160	146	#7	Prominent 56% FR / 11% HU 10/10 9 runs	— 3/5 Stall	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D
3✓ 2✗	Going ✗	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
8	Punxsutawney Phil p M Walford / Jamie Hamilton		107 ✓	33/1 SP 34.0 card: 14/1	155	13	#7	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 9/10 6 runs	— 3/5 Stall	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D
4✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
9	Colonel Jack t1 M Walford / B S Hughes		100	20/1 SP 21.0 card: 8/1	148	226	#7	Front Runner 67% FR / 0% HU 4/10 3 runs	— 3/5 Stall	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT
1✓ 2✗	Going ✗	Distance ?	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ?	Trainer ✓

 

[DuckandDive]

Bobby Socks
Place Only (around 10/1 in the win market).
Bit one paced, but on a good handicap mark and a low weight to carry.

 

[Jackform]

Hexham 2.45 Mkt odds from 12.30 indicate race restricted to win from no's 6, 4, 1
Fine Form master formula rating:
6. Titanium Ring FFm 5 (5/2 Mkt)
4. Kool Raoul 16 (11/4) Linda Russell & Michael Scudamure 22
1. High Dancer 9 10/3)
Comment: I go Kool Raoul then High Dancer

 

[markfinn]

CLASS NOTE: Class 4 hurdles stop at 0-120 here; Class 3 handicaps start above. A 7lb penalty takes High Dancer to 127 = Class 3, where he was beaten as favourite off 120 at Cartmel. Everyone else stays Class 4 after a win.

Kool Raoul (2/1 fav): won this race's course and trip on 20 Oct, made all, comfortably, off 101; up 6lb. Stable in form (6 from 38 in 14 days, 4 from 11 at Hexham in 90 days). Proven on the climb. Against: Wadge replaces Fox, only one handicap win, 6lb rise. Strongest current form in the race —

Punxsutawney Phil: 9yo on the OR-management lens — 115 last spring, back down to 107, the exact mark he won off over this trip at Newcastle (made all, 16L), now carrying 10lb less; Hamilton won on him twice. Against: PU and a fading 7th in his two hurdles this autumn after a 527-day absence.

Snowrocco: won twice at 3m in Dec-Jan off 93 and 104 with Mania; raised to 113, beaten three times, now 110 and 6lb below her winning weight. Hexham's climb rewards stamina, which suits a 3m winner dropping to 2m4½f. Against: 220 days off.

High Dancer: proven up the Hexham hill (won 2m½f in June off 116); stable and jockey in form. Against: top weight 12-0, 4lb above his win mark, beaten as favourite off 120 last time, and a win puts him in Class 3.

Sunset Hill: led and was caught twice at Hexham in May (8L clear after 3 out at one point) — handles the track, does not see it out. 7yo, no handicap win in 8. Bobby Socks: 2nd here last time off 95, but 9yo, trainer 66 days without a winner. Titanium Ring: 4th beaten 1.4L off this same mark at Bangor, 202 days off. Colonel Jack and Hopeless Dancer: maidens on handicap debut, long absences.

Kool Raoul win - Punxsutawney Phil, with Snowrocco to W & 4 places

 

[Chesham]

Titanium Ring ( win)
Snowrocco Place (4 Places)

 

[Chesham]

Well done Cashelman pawras T tacker and markfinn who got The winner and his EW Snowrocco

 

[DuckandDive]

wd Cashelman T tacker pawras markfinn Jackform and Chesham for the EW. ( Think I was the only blankety blank)

 

[pawras]

well done fellow winners