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Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day

Aphrodite Spirit — the Speed horse: best Speed and encouraging course AW run, but potentially wrong race shape.


Qitaal — the balanced horse: Speed #2, favourable pace profile and positive AW record, but poor historical draw.


Thinthread — the pace-position horse: Speed #3 and potentially favourably positioned, but limited AW evidence isn't encouraging.


Joseph — the AW-form test: weakest Speed rating but easily the most established AW record and arrives after a dominant Kempton AW win.

Joseph to win
 
WoM consensus says Whats the PLan

Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,WHATS THE PLAN,"['3.5', '2.0', '3.0', '2.0', '2.0', '3.0']",15.5
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,CLASSICAL ALLUSION,"['1.5', '5.0', '1.0', '1.0', '4.0', '5.0']",17.5
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,APHRODITE SPIRIT,"['1.5', '3.0', '2.0', '3.0', '3.0', '8.0']",20.5
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,WARDLAW,"['8.0', '1.0', '9.0', '9.0', '1.0', '2.0']",30.0
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,JOSEPH,"['6.5', '4.0', '6.0', '5.0', '5.0', '7.0']",33.5
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,NARRAGANSETT,"['5.0', '9.0', '8.0', '4.0', '9.0', '1.0']",36.0
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,QITAAL,"['9.0', '7.0', '4.0', '6.0', '6.0', '4.0']",36.0
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,THINTHREAD,"['3.5', '6.0', '5.0', '7.0', '7.0', '9.0']",37.5
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,GOLDEN CIRCET,"['6.5', '8.0', '7.0', '8.0', '8.0', '6.0']",43.5

WoM Regression says Classical Illusion

Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,CLASSICAL ALLUSION,0.0,0.62,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.35,0.25031993273551756
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,WARDLAW,0.55,1.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.95,0.22326143975825566
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,WHATS THE PLAN,0.12,0.87,0.6,0.66,0.87,0.9,0.13807429936720186
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,APHRODITE SPIRIT,0.0,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.81,0.02,0.1355688551262828
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,JOSEPH,0.54,0.65,0.27,0.36,0.63,0.05,0.11356042402828365
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,THINTHREAD,0.12,0.43,0.41,0.32,0.33,0.0,0.08630692256505447
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,QITAAL,1.0,0.22,0.54,0.34,0.57,0.56,0.07742960334990359
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,NARRAGANSETT,0.47,0.0,0.2,0.38,0.0,1.0,0.06102435337078424
Kempton_20:00_2026-09-23,GOLDEN CIRCET,0.54,0.12,0.24,0.3,0.24,0.17,0.04739313449885914
 
It's a tricky little race after looking in a bit more detail,

JOSEPH won well LTO and needs to step up again to win this in my opinion.
CLASSICAL ALLUSION has ran 2 good races (on my ratings) both at Kempton, a repeat of those and wont be far away

I'm going to take a chance on THINTHREAD, I can forgive the last run @ Goodwood on Soft ground, has not been with George Baker for too long and has been dropped again 3lbs in the handicap for this run. May still be too high in the Handicap (unsure on French form) but has shown a liking for the artificial surface winning @ Deauville.

There has been money around for this horse today, it was 22/1 this morning and now 10's, wouldn't be a shock if it won.

Sul :handgestures-thumbup:
 
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