• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day

16:25 York.

Power Fizz

RankHorseORFull MR ValuesBest MRAvg Best 2 MRMR+17MR+17−OROdds
1Power Fizz9410, 46, 80, 62, 47, 738076.597+310/1–12/1
2U Sure Do8355, 54, 71, 75, 50, 63757392+928/1–33/1
3Great Dream9155, 74, 46, 61, 59, 287467.591025/1–33/1
4Houquetot9260, 49, –, 777768.594+24/1–9/2
5Khafiz8944, 64, 67, 34, 48, 71716988−110/1–12/1
6Northern Express9753, 65, 71716888−99/2–11/2
7He’s A Monster9746, 60, 69, 336964.586−1118/1–22/1
8Humam8847, 69, 60, 40, 456964.586−220/1–33/1
9Utmost Good Faith9244, 12, 49, 65, 42, 69696786−666/1–125/1
10Bobby Bennu9467, 57, 63, 43, 64, 576765.584−1013/2–7/1
11Our Havana8541, 21, 60, 26, 42, 676763.584−133/1–66/1
12Mr Noble8955, 64, 60, 32, 35646281−85/2–11/4
13Quest For Fun7654, 30, 49, 51, 64, 27645981+512/1–14/1
14Woohoo7848, 39, 58, 55, 47, 335856.575−39/1–10/1
15First Time8151, 58, 56, 57, 245857.575−633/1–40/1
 
Today is probably not the day for Humam as he only needs to drop a pound to be eligible for 0-85.

Since Tony Bloom bought the horse when rated 92 last year, he has run some nice races. he was an unlucky eighth in a listed race at Hoppegarten, fourth in a listed race in Rome and third in a listed race at Bro Park. Back in the UK, he has a third to Elarak in a 0-105 off 91 and a third in a 0-100 off 88.
Last time can be forgiven as the race came too soon after that third. He needs at least two weeks off track.

Humam's record going round a left hand bend reads 3-5 as opposed to 0-11 on straight and right handed tracks. His record over 7f round a left handed bend reads 2-2.

Stuart Williams is 4-12 in September.

Humam is a big price today and is worth a bob each way plus he is 7/4 to finish top seven, so in a 15 runner handicap, that's they way to go.
 
Wisdom of Models consensus rank say Mr Noble

York_16:25_2026-09-06,MR NOBLE,"['1.0', '1.0', '2.0', '5.0', '2.0', '6.0']",17.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,HOUQUETOT,"['3.0', '5.0', '1.0', '1.0', '8.0', '3.0']",21.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,WOOHOO,"['9.0', '2.0', '3.0', '4.0', '5.0', '4.0']",27.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,BOBBY BENNU,"['11.0', '4.0', '9.0', '7.0', '3.0', '2.0']",36.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,POWER FIZZ,"['3.0', '6.0', '14.0', '14.0', '1.0', '1.0']",39.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,U SURE DO,"['8.0', '8.0', '4.0', '6.0', '9.0', '10.0']",45.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,NORTHERN EXPRESS,"['14.5', '3.0', '5.0', '3.0', '12.0', '13.0']",50.5
York_16:25_2026-09-06,HUMAM,"['7.0', '10.0', '12.0', '9.0', '7.0', '7.0']",52.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,QUEST FOR FUN,"['14.5', '7.0', '6.0', '2.0', '13.0', '14.0']",56.5
York_16:25_2026-09-06,KHAFIZ,"['10.0', '11.0', '7.0', '8.0', '11.0', '11.0']",58.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,FIRST TIME,"['3.0', '9.0', '11.0', '13.0', '15.0', '8.0']",59.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,UTMOST GOOD FAITH,"['6.0', '14.0', '15.0', '15.0', '6.0', '5.0']",61.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,GREAT DREAM,"['5.0', '15.0', '8.0', '10.0', '14.0', '12.0']",64.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,OUR HAVANA,"['13.0', '12.0', '10.0', '12.0', '10.0', '9.0']",66.0
York_16:25_2026-09-06,HES A MONSTER,"['12.0', '13.0', '13.0', '11.0', '4.0', '15.0']",68.0

Regression on each models probabilities says Mr Noble

York_16:25_2026-09-06,MR NOBLE,0.0,1.0,0.99,0.91,0.63,0.32,0.2390890558227226
York_16:25_2026-09-06,HOUQUETOT,0.15,0.36,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.68,0.16624961181980974
York_16:25_2026-09-06,WOOHOO,0.56,0.57,0.97,0.93,0.22,0.56,0.13186919157500065
York_16:25_2026-09-06,NORTHERN EXPRESS,1.0,0.51,0.8,0.95,0.05,0.06,0.10583529074563948
York_16:25_2026-09-06,BOBBY BENNU,0.69,0.47,0.73,0.77,0.5,0.71,0.10351987187626772
York_16:25_2026-09-06,QUEST FOR FUN,1.0,0.22,0.79,0.95,0.02,0.02,0.09988761864037228
York_16:25_2026-09-06,U SURE DO,0.27,0.19,0.87,0.9,0.11,0.1,0.09705844559713483
York_16:25_2026-09-06,POWER FIZZ,0.15,0.3,0.14,0.37,1.0,1.0,0.07741050787185426
York_16:25_2026-09-06,KHAFIZ,0.64,0.1,0.75,0.75,0.1,0.1,0.07503012200011804
York_16:25_2026-09-06,FIRST TIME,0.15,0.19,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.19,0.06208978840107309
York_16:25_2026-09-06,GREAT DREAM,0.19,0.0,0.73,0.6,0.02,0.07,0.05703079346042138
York_16:25_2026-09-06,HUMAM,0.25,0.15,0.45,0.63,0.13,0.19,0.05668097463420967
York_16:25_2026-09-06,HES A MONSTER,0.71,0.02,0.39,0.58,0.26,0.0,0.05076249384898112
York_16:25_2026-09-06,OUR HAVANA,0.8,0.02,0.53,0.55,0.1,0.12,0.04795338175884122
York_16:25_2026-09-06,UTMOST GOOD FAITH,0.24,0.01,0.0,0.0,0.13,0.38,0.044871086653536986
 
I've been torn between NORTHERN CROSS & HOUQUETOT the former a regular at this course and just 2lbs higher than when winning over c/d but on balance i decided on the latter HOUQ.
Lightly raced horse but group class two years ago in france but that was then and you could easily argue his form went backwards after a wind op and a move to O'meara.
Changed yards again this year James Owen and imo the form hasn't been at all bad , first of which was 7-15 in a cl2 off 98, keen early but was right there until 2 pole but didn't fall into a hole btn about 7L, all in all not a bad seasonal debut uk.
He then went to newm july meeting 7f, cl2 off 94 and most likely ran to his mark and in finishing 4th i got the impression that he wasn't enjoying the fast ground, should be fine today with york good(good to soft) in places.
Dropped another couple of pounds today and down to a cl3 which is the lowest grade he's run in and while it is a bit of guesswork involved but hopefully i've outlined reasons to believe he could deliver.
 
Even though He's A Monster is carrying 10-04, exchange price of 42.0 simply looks too big, for a horse with a 50% h/c S/R in the UK.

The stable had a winner a week ago carrying 10-0, which went off 55.0.

Trainers record with horses off a break is a positive and the horse was only beaten a head last year at Newcastle @ 106 bfsp.

Probably is best on the a/w, but does have PF's of 96 & 97 on turf and runs off 97 today.
 
Back
Top