Horse | RPR | RPR | Class | Ability | Adj RPR | Final URM |
Heretic | 74 | 61 | 1 | 45 | 56 | 101 |
Dunfries | 81 | 55 | 1 | 46 | 58 | 104 |
Mereside Madness | 76 | 21 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 34 |
Captain Pickles | 61 | 23 | 1 | 28 | 24 | 52 |
Lord Abama | 76 | 44 | 1 | 40 | 43 | 83 |
Beaming Light | 76 | 49 | 1 | 42 | 50 | 92 |
Turbo Command | 79 | 53 | 1 | 44 | 52 | 96 |
Pink Socks | 70 | 41 | 1 | 37 | 43 | 80 |
Cable Beach | 54 | 47 | 1 | 34 | 50 | 84 |
Captain Kinsella | 81 | 15 | 1 | 32 | 24 | 56 |
Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
Didn't realise we were still doing this and nothing straightforward in making a selection with reasoning but i'll have a bash at LORD ABAMA.
Very little to be optimistic about this years form but that stands for many of them, IF it is possible to back a year or so to the last time he ran over at this course 6f he went off a mark of 75 and ran a reasonable 4th, today he's running off 53 and over 7f, very much a guess that is probable nonsense.
Very little to be optimistic about this years form but that stands for many of them, IF it is possible to back a year or so to the last time he ran over at this course 6f he went off a mark of 75 and ran a reasonable 4th, today he's running off 53 and over 7f, very much a guess that is probable nonsense.
DuckandDive
Mare
Well done with Heretic. BSP 3.50! 
markfinn
Sire
Well done
K
Kraldrew
Jackform
DuckandDive
Michael231
FHRTIPS popular winner - hope I have not missed anyone
Jackform
DuckandDive
Michael231
FHRTIPS popular winner - hope I have not missed anyone
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TheBluesBrother
Dam
13:45 Beverley (Saturday).
Cinque Verde
Cinque Verde
| Horse | OR | Flat MR Values | Best MR | Rank Best MR | Avg Best 2 MR | MR+17 | MR+17 − OR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Aclaim | 91 | 62, 62, 60, 32, 67 | 67 | 6th | 64.5 | 84 | -7 |
| Exclamation | 92 | 33, 49, 25, 9, 45, 20 | 49 | 11th | 47 | 66 | -26 |
| Cinque Verde | 89 | 56, 64, 30, 80, 52, 70 | 80 | 1st | 75 | 97 | +8 |
| Sir Yoshi | 87 | 54, 54, 51, 48, 60, 36 | 60 | 8th | 57 | 77 | -10 |
| Trilby | 85 | 59, 35, 73, 59, 46, 51 | 73 | 2nd | 66 | 90 | +5 |
| Paddy’s Day | 85 | 56, 45, 64, 56, 71, 67 | 71 | 3rd | 69 | 88 | +3 |
| Temple Of Athena | 86 | 61, 51, 21, 53, 65, 49 | 65 | 5th | 63 | 82 | -4 |
| Francisco’s Piece | 83 | 47, 63, 34, 61, 47, 67 | 67 | 6th | 65 | 84 | +1 |
| Lethal Nymph | 83 | 60, 38, 52, 67, 36, 57 | 67 | 6th | 63.5 | 84 | +1 |
| Vintage Clarets | 82 | 52, 68, 56, 67, 31, 23 | 68 | 4th | 67.5 | 85 | +3 |
| Baldomero | 81 | 48, 48, 53, 70, 63, 62 | 70 | 3rd | 66.5 | 87 | +6 |
Final verdict — Beverley 13:45
Soft (Heavy in places) — 5f — Class 3 — 10 runners
| Rank | Horse | Final Win % | Fair Odds | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vintage Clarets | 19.0% | 4.26/1 | TOP RATED |
| 2 | Trilby | 17.5% | 4.71/1 | MAIN DANGER |
| 3 | Temple Of Athena | 12.0% | 7.33/1 | PACE/DRAW DANGER |
| 4 | Sir Yoshi | 11.5% | 7.70/1 | Contender |
| 5 | Solar Aclaim | 10.0% | 9.00/1 | Contender |
| 6 | Lethal Nymph | 8.5% | 10.76/1 | Interesting |
| 7 | Paddy's Day | 7.5% | 12.33/1 | Pace positive |
| 8 | Francisco's Piece | 6.5% | 14.38/1 | Ground positive |
| 9 | Baldomero | 4.0% | 24.00/1 | Draw concern |
| 10 | Exclamation | 3.5% | 27.57/1 | Risky |
| TOTAL | 100.0% |
1. Vintage Clarets — final selection
Vintage Clarets remains my number one.
His strongest evidence is unusually well aligned with tomorrow's conditions. At Epsom over 5f on Soft, he finished 2nd of 20, beaten 0.75 lengths, recording a 106 Tfig and 106 adjusted Timeform performance. He also ran 3rd at Chester on good-to-soft with an adjusted 106+. Timeform's comments independently confirm that he acts on heavy going and is best at 5f nowadays.
Then we get the race-specific positives:
Draw 2 is excellent with the stated bias against high draws. He is already a C&D winner, carries only 9-1 before the 5 lb claim, and races from an OR of just 82.
His major negative is the pace map. He's expected to be held up, whereas Timeform says prominent racers generally have the advantage over this Beverley 5f. That's why I wouldn't make him an overwhelming favourite.
But the combination of proven soft/heavy effectiveness + elite relevant Tfig + low draw + C&D + weight is enough for me to retain him at #1.
markfinn
Sire
I agree with you but just want to further check out the young ones in the morning
trecelyn
Filly
Pinning my hopes on Baldermo, this is the lowest class race he has run in recently, whereas he is not my top rated, that burden falls to Vintage Clarets, having raced on ground possibly to quick for him, the return to softer ground may slow the rest of the field enough for him to take a hand, blinkers back on for the first time this season and a fair price for his recent performances
markfinn
Sire
CD form, Jockey/Horse combo, whether it stays in class after the win, and career strike rate:
Only three horses hold full CD (course and distance winners): Trilby, Temple Of Athena, Vintage Clarets.
Of those three:
Worth noting: Solar Aclaim has by far the best strike rate (25%) but fails the class test outright — a win today would take him 1lb over this band's ceiling, so if you're specifically looking for "can repeat at this level," he doesn't qualify on that count despite being the most proven winner in the race.
just a thought - with out ever looking at or taking the markets into consideration - we end up at the same conclusions
| Horse | CD | J/H Combo | Still in Class? | Career SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Aclaim | D only | Placed ✓ | No (96 > 95) | 25% |
| Exclamation | D only | New | No (97 > 95) | 14% |
| Cinque Verde | D only | New | Yes | 24% |
| Sir Yoshi | D only | New | Yes (no anchor) | 5% |
| Trilby | CD | Won ✓ | Yes | 15% |
| Paddys Day | D only | Won ✓ | Yes | 17% |
| Temple Of Athena | CD | New | Yes | 23% |
| Franciscos Piece | D only | New | Yes | 12% |
| Lethal Nymph | D only | New | Yes | 15% |
| Vintage Clarets | CD | Placed ✓ | Yes | 15% |
| Baldomero | D only | Placed ✓ | Yes | 11% |
Only three horses hold full CD (course and distance winners): Trilby, Temple Of Athena, Vintage Clarets.
Of those three:
- Trilby is the only one that ticks all four boxes cleanly — full CD, a jockey who's actually won on him, stays inside the band after the penalty. The one soft spot is a modest 15% strike rate, but everything else lines up.
- Vintage Clarets — full CD, in-class, jockey has placed (not won) on him, same modest 15% SR — and carries the going-flag doubt from earlier if it turns soft.
- Temple Of Athena — best strike rate of the three (23%) and full CD, but a brand new jockey booking with no track record on her at all, plus she's already carrying both the surface and going flags.
Worth noting: Solar Aclaim has by far the best strike rate (25%) but fails the class test outright — a win today would take him 1lb over this band's ceiling, so if you're specifically looking for "can repeat at this level," he doesn't qualify on that count despite being the most proven winner in the race.
just a thought - with out ever looking at or taking the markets into consideration - we end up at the same conclusions
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