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Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day

Try the Fine Form master formula for the getting out stakes.

Musselburgh (G some GF watered) Mkt odds from 11.15am.
6.45 Early mkt expected no's 6, 3, 2, 5, 7 indicating a win restricted to these (ATR gives them 71% success chance).

2. 13/2 (my fair tissue) (9/2 mkt) Jer Batt
3. 3/1 (10/3) I'm Next
5. 13/2 (6/1) Mon Na Sleve
6. 9/2 (11/4) Montezuma
7. ? (9/1)

11. 10/1 (40/1) Albegone

My comment: 5f miss the kick done your cash race. Either I'm Next for value or I'm Next/Montezuma dutch. A Speculative each-way Albegone.
 
Bottom line: Alpine Sierra is the banker on ability and handicap logic — 6/4 is a short price but reflects genuine edge. Valley of Flowers is the clean each-way alternative. Combined minimum odds requirement of 3.75 is only met by backing both at current prices if Alpine Sierra drifts slightly or you take Valley of Flowers each-way at 9/2. ?

Back both to win
 
Monsieur Melee

Not run for 21 months, but moved to Menzies after the Horsewatchers paid 45k just after his last run.

Dropped back to it's last winng mark and gets back to 0-70 grade for the first time since it's last win
 
I always want to be against Jim Goldie

Alpine Sierra is an example; 1/39 since 2024 ( Win was A/W)

Record with favs 0/7

Clearly on a good mark, but the price is awful.

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Analysis
Dust Cover is the standout on the data. AW record since November reads 1211 — C&D winner, 75% distance win rate, 100% on this going/course combination in the stats. Race-fit (23 DSLR). Ross Burdon is a small yard but this horse clearly thrives here. The verdict backs it, the tips back it (5 tips — most in the field), and the market has it joint-favourite. The turf blip is easy to forgive given the AW profile.
Tortured Soul is the other serious contender. CD winner, 10 wins from 32 on AW (31%), 27% distance strike rate, 25% course strike rate. Neil Callan in flying form (40% last 14 days). Race-fit at 24 DSLR. Described as “tough as old boots” — this type keeps delivering at this level. Current 11-12/1 looks generous given the profile.
Caph Star has C&D form but is 5lb above his winning mark — that’s a real concern in a 0-75 handicap at this level. Sean Levey in form but the OR flag is negative.
Dancing Tiger is race-fit and won on reappearance, but no Polytrack evidence and up 4lb. Unknown quantity on this surface.
Must Believe is intriguing — CD winner, 67% distance record, but stable switch after 90 days off.

Two win bets

Top 2
1. Dust Cover — C&D form, AW specialist, race-fit, 100% course/going stats
2. Tortured Soul — CD winner, consistent AW performer, race-fit, value price.
 
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