Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day

[simon boardman]

Agree Michael231 , i thought if he had been closer to the pace he would have got past the front 2 .

 

[Sullybomb]

Tomorrows ROTD.

 

[tacker]

I thought that was a strange ride by Murphy.
Gap appears and goes the other way instead of staying on the rail or was it just me

I think it is reasonable to watch a race and have different opinions, personally i don't think Murphy did anything wrong, ASSET produced a couple of furlongs 3f 12.55 almost on the bridal while EDWIN 3f 13.08 was hard ridden, for me they went too hard early which probably suited EDWIN the way he stayed on final furlong, all about opinions Michael231

Client Challenge

 

[Leodis]

Two well handicapped horses from the shortlist:

Oriental Prince, a worthy favourite and should be ok on the going.

The Caltonian, not won on turf ,unproven on going and 2+years older than field average.

For Bowers fans, the race is unbalanced to the tune of 3.0lbs

 

[Michael231]

Hi T tacker . I'm not saying it would have won, but if he had stayed on the rail he would have been a lot closer as he had to check then come around the other horse to get out before he could get going again.

 

[FHRTIPS]

 

[TheBluesBrother]

14:00 Ayr

Oriental Prince.

Rank	Horse	OR	Full MR Values	Best MR	Avg Best 2	MR+17	MR+17 − OR
1	Oriental Prince	74	61,30,59,42,40,36	61	60.0	78	+4
2	King’s Crown	69	56,31,51,54,38,32	56	55.0	73	+4
3	The Caltonian	67	26,57,49,27,55,47	57	56.0	74	+7
4	Lion’s House	67	42,54,37,20,41,40	54	48.0	71	+4
5	Great Profit	70	49,54,40,40,53	54	53.5	71	+1
6	Simba’s Pride	66	38,33,39,51,40,37	51	45.5	68	+2
7	Edgewater Drive	62	29,25,51,34,18,38	51	44.5	68	+6
8	Whiskey Kisses	62	38,35,42,50,36	50	46.0	67	+5
9	Emperor’s Son	69	19,28,48,47,38,37	48	47.5	65	−4
10	Startling	70	37,48,41,30,37,23	48	44.5	65	−5
11	Opal Storm	55	38,29,28,31,47,23	47	42.5	64	+9
12	Justmyluck	65	8,29,47,22,36	47	41.5	64	−1
13	Hi Lord	63	29,27,40,19,42,45	45	43.5	62	−1
14	Knicks	62	45,34,41,44,42,46	46	45.5	63	+1
15	Thunderstorm Katie	68	41,40,40,43,38,46	46	44.5	63	−5
16	Pockley	51	20,31,46,38,4,6	46	42.0	63	+12
17	Thistle Nil	68	40,2,17,22	40	31.0	57	−11
18	Never Dark	54	36,35,24,32,41,30	41	38.5	58	+4
19	Vince L’Amour	70	38	38	38.0	55	−15
20	Falcon Queen	52	17,11,29,24,28,24	29	28.5	46	−6

 

[Michael231]

I like the look of this race, lots of runners may get a decent price on one or two.
Again looks like a few of us are on the same horse.
Oriental prince and Hi lord as a threat


14:00 Brandinghub For Signs Graphics Handicap Ayr • Flat • 5f • Good to soft • Class 5

CONVERGENCE ALERT — 13 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning

Horse	Odds	Signals	Verdict
Oriental Prince	10/3	RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · ideal going · trainer 40% w/Front Runners · SP↓ vs last run	TOP PICK
Whiskey Kisses	10/1	draw 5/5 · strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · SP↓ vs last run	ELIMINATED
Thistle Nil	16/1	CD winner · ideal going · trainer 40% w/Front Runners · SP↓ vs last run	CONTENDER
Simbas Pride	17	RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · ideal going · trainer 30% w/Front Runners	ELIMINATED
Knicks	8/1	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · ideal going	ELIMINATED
Hi Lord	20/1 odds≥runners	draw 5/5 · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · ideal going	ELIMINATED
Edgewater Drive	28/1 odds≥runners	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · trainer 25% w/Front Runners	STRONGLY BACKED
The Caltonian	5/1	draw 5/5 · strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner	WATCH
Lions House	15	Master Rating +4 · RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · C/D winner	ELIMINATED
Opal Storm	16/1	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · ideal going	ELIMINATED
Kings Crown	17	RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · ideal going · SP↓ vs last run	WATCH
Great Profit	13/2	strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving	CONTENDER
Never Dark	11/1	RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · ideal going	ELIMINATED

NEAR-BALANCED • Weight range: 119–142lbs (23lbs spread) • Midpoint: 130.5lbs • Median weight (132.5lbs) is 2.0lbs from midpoint — no Bowers boost (historically -21.3% ROI unfiltered) • Median OR: 66 (OR ✓ = at/above median)

🏟 Ayr: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • Sprint distance — draw at full effect
Left-handed. Low draws favoured in large fields over straight course.

Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Very hot pace expected

Front Runner

Oriental Prince
84% FR • Stall 9
Thistle Nil
67% FR • Stall 15
Simbas Pride
100% FR • Stall 14
Edgewater Drive
62% FR • Stall 13

Prominent

Great Profit
38% FR • Stall 16
Never Dark
56% FR • Stall 19
Hi Lord
58% FR • Stall 2

Versatile

Knicks
32% FR • Stall 20
Lions House
31% FR • Stall 18
Opal Storm
31% FR • Stall 12
Kings Crown
32% FR • Stall 21
Vince LAmour
0% FR • Stall 7

Hold-Up

Whiskey Kisses
25% FR • Stall 1
Thunderstorm Katie
0% FR • Stall 11
The Caltonian
11% FR • Stall 6

4 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Whiskey Kisses (Stall 1), Thunderstorm Katie (Stall 11)

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	Oriental Prince J S Goldie / P Mulrennan	9	69 ✓	10/3 SP 4.33 card: 4.5	142	11	#2	Front Runner 84% FR / 3% HU 9/10 31 runs	— 3/5 Stall 9	Steady at 10/3 SP shorter than last run (18.0→4.3) ✓ Distance winner Won last run RPR 95 vs OR 69 — well ahead of hcp Master Rating -12 (well below handicapper expectations ) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ Class drop (Cls 3→5) ✓ 11 days — ideal freshness 🏋 Trainer 40% with Front Runners (128/324) +5.79	0% Poor	12.89	TOP PICK D
6✓ 0✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✓	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
2	Thistle Nil J S Goldie / Rhys Elliott	15	68 ✓	16/1 SP 17.0 card: 13	136	27	#7	Front Runner 67% FR / 33% HU 6/10 6 runs	1/5 Stall 15	Drifting badly 13.0→16/1 SP shorter than last run (40.0→17.0) ✓ | won last run — placed profile ✓ Course winner | Distance winner Won last run RPR trending up +5pts | RPR 6pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ Slight class rise (Cls 6→5) 🏋 Trainer 40% with Front Runners (128/324) 5lb claim +6.43	0% Poor	12.05	CONTENDER C|D
5✓ 1✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✓	Draw ✗	RPR ?	Trainer ✓
3	Great Profit S Hanlon / Barry McHugh	16	70 ✓	13/2 SP 7.5 card: 13	137	12	#1	Prominent 38% FR / 25% HU 7/10 8 runs	1/5 Stall 16	Strongly backed 13.0→13/2 SP longer than last run (3.5→7.5) | won last run — placed profile ✓ Beaten fav 3rd last run | Won prev run | Consistent placer RPR 75 vs OR 70 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR improving +11pts last 3 runs | TS 65 — at/above career best Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class rise (Cls 6→5) 12 days — ideal freshness IV 2.92 (Strong) +5.3	20% Weak	11.4	CONTENDER BF
4✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ✓	Form ✓	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
4	Never Dark p I Jardine / Saffie Osborne	19	54	11/1 SP 12.0 card: 15	122	8	#15	Prominent 56% FR / 11% HU 9/10 18 runs	1/5 Stall 19	Backed 15.0→11/1 ✓ SP longer than last run (6.0→12.0) | 3rd last run — placed profile ✓ Distance winner | Beaten fav RPR 66 vs OR 54 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -15pts Master Rating +2 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ Slight class rise (Cls 6→5) 8 days — ideal freshness IV 1.95 (Strong) +5.0	20% Weak	10.99	ELIMINATED BF|D
4✓ 2✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
5	Whiskey Kisses R M Smith / Jason Hart	1	62	10/1 SP 11.0 card: 21	129	27	#12	Hold-Up 25% FR / 50% HU 4/10 12 runs	5/5 Stall 1	Strongly backed 21.0→10/1 SP shorter than last run (40.0→11.0) ✓ RPR 85 vs OR 62 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +15pts last 3 runs | TS 79 — at/above career best Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ +4.6	0% Poor	9.84	ELIMINATED
3✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ?	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✓	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
6	Simbas Pride M Dods / Mark Winn	14	66 ✓	17 17.0	133	18	#9	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 9/10 3 runs	1/5 Stall 14	SP longer than last run (10.0→17.0) RPR 85 vs OR 66 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +11pts last 3 runs | TS 75 — at/above career best Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ 🏋 Trainer 30% with Front Runners (61/204) ✓ +2.68	20% Weak	9.25	ELIMINATED
4✓ 2✗	Going ✓	Distance ?	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
7	Knicks t | v M D Easterby / Billy Garritty	20	62	8/1 SP 9.0 card: 13	130	9	#11	Versatile 32% FR / 32% HU 5/10 19 runs	1/5 Stall 20	Strongly backed 13.0→8/1 SP longer than last run (4.0→9.0) Distance winner 3rd last run RPR 77 vs OR 62 — well ahead of hcp Master Rating -1 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ 9 days — ideal freshness +3.9	0% Poor	8.9	ELIMINATED D
4✓ 2✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
8	Hi Lord v S Hanlon / T Eaves	2	63	20/1 SP 21.0 card: 17	131	9	#10	Prominent 58% FR / 8% HU 9/10 12 runs	5/5 Stall 2	Drifting 17.0→20/1 SP longer than last run (4.5→21.0) Distance winner RPR 70 vs OR 63 — ahead of hcp ✓ | RPR declining -12pts Master Rating -1 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ Slight class rise (Cls 6→5) 9 days — ideal freshness IV 0.0 (Poor) +1.6	40% Moderate	8.61	ELIMINATED D
6✓ 1✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✓	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
9	Edgewater Drive t W Storey / Greg Fairley	13	62	28/1 SP 29.0 card: 51	130	15	#13	Front Runner 62% FR / 38% HU 7/10 8 runs	1/5 Stall 13	Strongly backed 51.0→28/1 Quick turnaround (10 days) ✓ Distance winner RPR 90 vs OR 62 — well ahead of hcp | RPR trending up +4pts | TS 77 — near career best 🏛 BHA -3 this week RaceIQ FSP 92% last run (Hamilton Park) — finished below par Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to soft) Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 🏋 Trainer 25% with Front Runners (4/16) ✓ IV 0.0 (Poor) — large fields +2.9	20% Weak	8.56	STRONGLY BACKED D
4✓ 3✗	Going ✗	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
10	Thunderstorm Katie J S Goldie / Lauren Young	11	68 ✓	11/1 SP 12.0 card: 9	136	15	#5	Hold-Up 0% FR / 67% HU 3/10 3 runs	— 3/5 Stall 11	Drifting badly 9.0→11/1 SP longer than last run (8.0→12.0) | won last run — placed profile ✓ Course winner | Distance winner Won prev run RPR 69 vs OR 68 — slight edge RaceIQ FSP 94% last run (Hamilton Park) — finished below par | RaceIQ FSP trending down -6pts over last 3 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ Slight class rise (Cls 6→5) IV 1.95 (Strong) 5lb claim +3.52	0% Poor	8.4	WATCH C|D
5✓ 0✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✓	Draw ~	RPR ?	Trainer ✓
11	The Caltonian Miss L A Perratt / C Lee	6	67 ✓	5/1 SP 6.0 card: 13	135	26	#6	Hold-Up 11% FR / 58% HU 3/10 19 runs	5/5 Stall 6	Strongly backed 13.0→5/1 SP longer than last run (4.5→6.0) | 3rd last run — placed profile ✓ Distance winner 3rd last run RPR 79 vs OR 67 — well ahead of hcp | RPR declining -13pts RaceIQ FSP 102% last run (Redcar) — solid finishing pace ✓ Master Rating -6 (below expectations ) IV 2.92 (Strong) +3.2	0% Poor	8.37	WATCH D
4✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✓	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
12	Lions House Miss L A Perratt / Paddy Bradley	18	67 ✓	15 15.0	135	33	#8	Versatile 31% FR / 46% HU 4/10 26 runs	1/5 Stall 18	Distance winner RPR 89 vs OR 67 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +13pts last 3 runs Master Rating +4 (above expectations ✓) Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ +3.2	20% Weak	8.07	ELIMINATED D
2✓ 2✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
13	Opal Storm p | t B Rothwell / P J McDonald	12	55	16/1 SP 17.0 card: 26	123	8	#14	Versatile 31% FR / 42% HU 4/10 26 runs	— 3/5 Stall 12	Strongly backed 26.0→16/1 SP longer than last run (9.0→17.0) Distance winner RPR 68 vs OR 55 — well ahead of hcp Master Rating +0 (as expected) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ Slight class rise (Cls 6→5) 8 days — ideal freshness IV 0.0 (Poor) +2.9	0% Poor	7.48	ELIMINATED D
5✓ 1✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
14	Kings Crown p | t M Dods / Sean Kirrane	21	69 ✓	17 17.0	137	47	#4	Versatile 32% FR / 44% HU 4/10 34 runs	1/5 Stall 21	SP shorter than last run (28.0→17.0) ✓ Distance winner RPR 83 vs OR 69 — well ahead of hcp Master Rating -3 (below expectations ) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to soft) ✓ IV 0.0 (Poor) +1.7	20% Weak	6.67	WATCH D
4✓ 2✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ✗	RPR ✓	Trainer ✓
15	Vince LAmour b | t T D Easterby / D Allan	7	70 ✓	26 26.0	138	22	#3	Unknown 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 No history	— 3/5 Stall 7	Distance winner +1.4	20% Weak	6.36	WATCH D
3✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ?	Trainer ✓
16	Lucius Aurelius p K A Ryan / Mikey Sheehy	4	55	66/1 SP 67.0 card: 51	123	44	#16	Prominent 59% FR / 18% HU 9/10 17 runs	5/5 Stall 4	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D
3✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ✓	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
17	Pockley Miss L A Perratt / Lexie Clarkson	8	51	50/1 SP 51.0 card: 17	119	282	#16	Hold-Up 32% FR / 53% HU 5/10 19 runs	— 3/5 Stall 8	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D
3✓ 1✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
18	Emperors Son Samantha Jacqueline Coward / Joanna Mason	10	69 ✓	34 34.0	137	31	#16	Prominent 42% FR / 32% HU 7/10 19 runs	— 3/5 Stall 10	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D
3✓ 1✗	Going ✓	Distance ✓	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ~	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
19	Falcon Queen R M Smith / A Mullen	5	52	33/1 SP 34.0 card: 34	119	5	#16	Versatile 22% FR / 44% HU 4/10 9 runs	5/5 Stall 5	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT
3✓ 1✗	Going ✓	Distance ?	Fit ?	Form ✗	Draw ✓	RPR ✓	Trainer ?
20	Justmyluck h Miss L A Perratt / William Pyle	3	65	33/1 SP 34.0 card: 34	132	27	#16	Prominent 55% FR / 9% HU 9/10 11 runs	5/5 Stall 3	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT D
4✓ 1✗	Going ?	Distance ✓	Fit ✓	Form ✗	Draw ✓	RPR ✓	Trainer ?

 

[tacker]

VINCE L'AMORE was 2nd in this 12 months ago off the same mark, similar draw but needs to get back to that kind of form today.

 

[Sullybomb]

Not got much time today for a proper write up so....

KNICKS & GREAT PROFIT

Cheers

 

[MySportsAI]

WoM consensus says Oriental Prince

Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,ORIENTAL PRINCE,"['9.5', '1.0', '2.0', '2.0', '4.0', '1.0']",19.5
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,THUNDERSTORM KATIE,"['9.5', '5.0', '8.0', '3.0', '6.0', '2.0']",33.5
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,KNICKS,"['8.0', '7.0', '4.0', '7.0', '9.0', '5.0']",40.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,SIMBAS PRIDE,"['3.0', '10.0', '9.0', '16.0', '5.0', '4.0']",47.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,GREAT PROFIT,"['4.5', '3.0', '12.0', '10.0', '12.0', '7.0']",48.5
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,STARTLING,"['17.0', '2.0', '6.0', '9.0', '7.0', '10.0']",51.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,THISTLE NIL,"['4.5', '6.0', '19.0', '19.0', '3.0', '3.0']",54.5
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,THE CALTONIAN,"['16.0', '4.0', '3.0', '1.0', '15.0', '18.0']",57.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,LIONS HOUSE,"['6.0', '11.0', '7.0', '4.0', '17.0', '13.0']",58.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,WHISKEY KISSES,"['11.0', '9.0', '1.0', '5.0', '13.0', '19.5']",58.5
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,EDGEWATER DRIVE,"['1.0', '17.0', '10.0', '11.0', '10.0', '14.0']",63.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,KINGS CROWN,"['19.0', '15.0', '5.0', '6.0', '8.0', '12.0']",65.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,EMPERORS SON,"['7.0', '16.0', '15.0', '8.0', '14.0', '11.0']",71.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,NEVER DARK,"['21.0', '8.0', '13.0', '14.0', '2.0', '16.0']",74.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,HI LORD,"['13.0', '13.0', '11.0', '17.0', '16.0', '15.0']",85.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,JUSTMYLUCK,"['2.0', '20.0', '18.0', '18.0', '20.0', '9.0']",87.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,LUCIUS AURELIUS,"['18.0', '21.0', '21.0', '21.0', '1.0', '6.0']",88.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,VINCE LAMOUR,"['12.0', '18.0', '20.0', '20.0', '11.0', '8.0']",89.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,FALCON QUEEN,"['14.0', '14.0', '14.0', '13.0', '18.0', '19.5']",92.5
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,OPAL STORM,"['15.0', '12.0', '17.0', '12.0', '19.0', '21.0']",96.0
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,POCKLEY,"['20.0', '19.0', '16.0', '15.0', '21.0', '17.0']",108.0

WoM Regression says Oriental Prince

Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,ORIENTAL PRINCE,0.45,1.0,0.97,0.85,0.69,1.0,0.236107193850955
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,THE CALTONIAN,0.56,0.5,0.97,1.0,0.39,0.39,0.1636451651230257
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,STARTLING,0.69,0.78,0.85,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.1282698596053027
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,GREAT PROFIT,0.11,0.68,0.73,0.58,0.5,0.65,0.1158547579371376
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,THUNDERSTORM KATIE,0.45,0.42,0.83,0.66,0.66,0.99,0.1072101089343605
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,KNICKS,0.38,0.37,0.94,0.59,0.58,0.75,0.10475543675559852
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,WHISKEY KISSES,0.5,0.25,1.0,0.62,0.5,0.37,0.10361004484948334
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,THISTLE NIL,0.11,0.41,0.42,0.32,0.78,0.89,0.09135898487492838
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,NEVER DARK,1.0,0.27,0.71,0.51,0.89,0.43,0.0907514393264057
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,SIMBAS PRIDE,0.07,0.25,0.8,0.48,0.66,0.78,0.08748100424143733
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,KINGS CROWN,0.85,0.14,0.86,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.08184802672089775
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,LIONS HOUSE,0.28,0.21,0.85,0.65,0.26,0.55,0.08124292934423882
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,HI LORD,0.51,0.2,0.75,0.36,0.27,0.5,0.07961614950062786
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,EDGEWATER DRIVE,0.0,0.1,0.78,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.07660385788661038
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,FALCON QUEEN,0.52,0.17,0.59,0.52,0.25,0.37,0.06403225893868485
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,LUCIUS AURELIUS,0.69,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,0.66,0.06363744199609785
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,OPAL STORM,0.52,0.21,0.54,0.56,0.17,0.0,0.06208978840107309
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,EMPERORS SON,0.32,0.11,0.58,0.59,0.4,0.57,0.0575625428084473
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,VINCE LAMOUR,0.5,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.54,0.63,0.052053727503035
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,JUSTMYLUCK,0.02,0.03,0.5,0.34,0.1,0.63,0.048108884000225394
Ayr_14:00_2026-09-17,POCKLEY,0.9,0.05,0.56,0.49,0.0,0.41,0.04795338175884122

 

[MySportsAI]

No race put up yet so how about Ayr 16:45

 

[FHRTIPS]

No race put up yet so how about Ayr 16:45

Yeah I'm game for that one

 

[MySportsAI]

WoM consensus say Sanafi Zabeel

Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,SANAFI ZABEEL,"['7.0', '1.0', '3.0', '3.0', '6.0', '1.0']",21.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,UP THE JAZZ,"['6.0', '4.0', '1.0', '1.0', '2.0', '10.0']",24.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,ICE CUBE,"['1.0', '3.0', '6.0', '7.0', '5.0', '5.0']",27.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,PERFIDIA,"['3.0', '6.0', '5.0', '4.0', '3.0', '7.0']",28.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,PENELOPES SISTER,"['4.0', '7.0', '7.0', '6.0', '1.0', '3.0']",28.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,STARLINER,"['8.0', '2.0', '2.0', '2.0', '10.0', '9.0']",33.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,FILLY EILISH,"['9.0', '5.0', '8.0', '8.0', '7.0', '4.0']",41.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,YAASER,"['10.0', '10.0', '9.0', '9.0', '4.0', '2.0']",44.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,STOIC POET,"['2.0', '9.0', '10.0', '10.0', '9.0', '6.0']",46.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,LITTLE TED,"['11.0', '8.0', '4.0', '5.0', '8.0', '11.0']",47.0
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,PEACEFUL SPIRIT,"['5.0', '11.0', '11.0', '11.0', '11.0', '8.0']",57.0

WoM Regression says Up The Jazz

Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,UP THE JAZZ,0.34,0.89,1.0,1.0,0.93,0.23,0.2523933257354553
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,SANAFI ZABEEL,0.41,1.0,0.77,0.81,0.6,1.0,0.1783851080537548
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,PERFIDIA,0.18,0.79,0.67,0.74,0.86,0.44,0.13853588396286423
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,ICE CUBE,0.0,0.95,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.13735473301186968
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,STARLINER,0.43,0.98,0.82,0.89,0.06,0.43,0.136330554645047
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,FILLY EILISH,0.54,0.83,0.57,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.1182531218554322
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,PENELOPES SISTER,0.18,0.56,0.62,0.57,1.0,0.74,0.11401785242984241
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,LITTLE TED,1.0,0.52,0.72,0.6,0.54,0.0,0.10162171708735909
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,STOIC POET,0.08,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.08003191858801063
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,YAASER,0.81,0.27,0.44,0.46,0.66,0.85,0.07551372507094434
Ayr_16:45_2026-09-18,PEACEFUL SPIRIT,0.33,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.43,0.044871086653536986

 

[FHRTIPS]

Penelope's Sister

 

[Michael231]

Can't run my prog today as website is updating, so go lucky dip and a fair price Yaaser for me.

 

[tony spencer]

AYR 15:40 — Full Race Overview​

This is a 25-runner, 6f Class 2 sprint, and the central question is whether the prominent horses can conserve enough energy or whether the race develops strongly enough for the better finishers to take over late. The original report describes the shape as contested early / pace pressure, with Run Boy Run the likeliest leader and Volterra and Candy expected to race prominently.


The important point is that the pace is spread across the track rather than concentrated in one section. Spycatcher and Stratusnine provide pace towards the low side, Volterra and Candy through the middle, and Run Boy Run/Hammer The Hammer towards the higher numbers. That makes the raw draw less important than where a horse sits relative to the pace and how much finishing strength it retains.


A complete pace collapse is not the most likely outcome. Ayr's 6f evidence in the report favours horses racing in the front half, so the ideal profile is probably a horse that can stay close enough without over-racing and still finish strongly.

Where does the pace come from?​

I expect Run Boy Run to be the main pace reference.


Behind or alongside him:


Volterra — prominent and potentially the horse who gets first run.


Candy — another likely pace influence.


Spycatcher — should be positioned much closer to the action than many of the hold-up horses.


Run Boy Run, however, is only 20th on the late-strength rankings and Candy is 25th, so neither has a particularly strong finishing profile if the early fractions become demanding.


The new trainer information reinforces the concern. Run Boy Run has a -30.66 conflicted trainer score and Candy -24.75 conflicted. Those aren't clean rejection signals, but they certainly don't strengthen their cases.


So I still expect those horses to help make the race rather than necessarily finish it.

---

The main contenders​

TUCO SALAMANCA — SELECTION​

This is the horse whose position improves most once we put the new trainer evidence alongside the race model.


AbilityPlus already had him second in the race on 88.29, only 1.35 points behind Spycatcher, so there was almost nothing between the top two on raw ability.


Now we add:


Trainer campaign score: +10.41


It is a conflicted positive, so I wouldn't treat +10.41 as a clean all-green signal, but it is still considerably more encouraging than several of his main rivals.


His weakness remains obvious. He's expected to be held up and only ranks eighth for finishing strength. That means I don't want him buried last in a 25-runner field.


But the combined picture is now strong:


AbilityPlus #2
Trainer campaign +10.41
No major clean trainer negative
Enough finishing ability
Good enough raw performance level


The trainer evidence breaks what was previously a very tight model contest.

Selection: TUCO SALAMANCA​

---

TWILIGHT CALLS — MAIN DANGER​

Twilight Calls remains the one I fear most if the race develops strongly.


He is:


FinishStrength #1


The report explicitly describes him as the best finisher in the race and one of the strongest model/setup combinations.


The problem remains his position. He's expected to be held up and drawn 19, so he needs the race to come back towards him.


But unlike many of the forward horses, he has the weapon that really matters if the leaders begin to tire: late speed.


There is no strong Stage 3 trainer score listed against him in today's strong-signal report, so the trainer overlay does not introduce the kind of major negative we see with Spycatcher or some of the other runners.


If they're going hard through the first four furlongs, Twilight Calls becomes increasingly dangerous.

Danger 1: TWILIGHT CALLS​

---

FAR ABOVE DREAM — BIG LATE DANGER​

Far Above Dream is very similar tactically.


He is second in the FinishStrength rankings, just ahead of Binhareer.


So if we get genuine pace pressure, he's one of the horses most likely to be moving forward while the prominent runners are beginning to weaken.


The concern is again track position. He is projected well behind the pace, and this isn't a track/trip where I'd want to give away five or six lengths unnecessarily.


But he has one major thing in his favour:


The race shape could make his strongest attribute increasingly valuable.

Danger 2: FAR ABOVE DREAM​

---

BINHAREER — STRONG HORSE, BUT NOW WITH TWO TRAINER WARNINGS​

This was my original selection.


And there is still plenty to like.


He's the report's best model + setup blend, drawn 2, and third on FinishStrength. His trainer model in the race report also ranks him first.


But the trainer overlay has changed my confidence.


Stage 3 gives him:


-9.33 conflicted


and the original race report independently says William Haggas's recent figures were below expectation and weakening.


That matters because these are two different pieces of evidence.


One asks whether the horse fits the trainer's historical campaign pattern.


The other looks at the yard's recent performance.


Neither is decisive independently, but both leaning negative is enough for me to move Binhareer below Tuco Salamanca.


He's still a very realistic winner because his finishing ability is excellent.

Danger 3: BINHAREER​

---

VOLTERRA — THE TACTICAL DANGER​

Volterra is potentially the horse who gets the best trip.


AbilityPlus ranks him third, and he is expected to race prominently just behind or alongside Run Boy Run.


That's important because Ayr's track/trip evidence favours front-half positioning.


His weakness is his finishing profile. He's only 17th late, so if he spends too much energy getting involved with Run Boy Run and Candy, I can see the stronger closers coming past him.


Stage 3 also gives him:


-13.10 conflicted


which is another reason not to make him the main selection.


But "conflicted" matters. It isn't the same as a clean -13.10 negative.


If Volterra gets something like:


Run Boy Run → Volterra stalking → rest


rather than fighting for the lead, he could be extremely difficult to catch.

Tactical danger: VOLTERRA​

---

The big model/trainer conflict — SPYCATCHER​

This is the most revealing horse in the entire race.


AbilityPlus ranks him:


#1 — 89.64


and the raw model price is 14.31 against a much bigger market price in the original report.


His draw is good and his projected early position is good.


Under the original analysis he was therefore quite interesting.


But Stage 3 now gives us:

SPYCATCHER -55.02 — VERY STRONG NEGATIVE​

And importantly, that isn't in the conflicted section. It's one of the day's clean very-strong negatives.


The race report itself was already warning that Burke's recent trainer form was poor.


So we now have:


AbilityPlus #1 ✓✓
Draw ✓
Likely position ✓
FinishStrength only #15
Recent trainer form ✗
Trainer campaign -55.02 ✗✗


That is precisely why we built the trainer modules.


The raw ability model likes him.


The trainer evidence says this particular setup/run does not resemble one of the trainer's strong historical situations.


So I would downgrade Spycatcher significantly.


He's capable enough to win, but I would not make him one of my primary horses despite being AbilityPlus #1.

---

Interesting outsider — EVENING SAIGON​

This one has become interesting.


Stage 3 gives Evening Saigon:

+20.58 conflicted​

which is one of the larger positive trainer scores in the race.


But the original race report says his current trainer form is a genuine negative.


That isn't necessarily contradictory.


It potentially means:


Trainer campaign pattern: positive


but


yard's immediate current form: negative


That's exactly the sort of horse I'd flag rather than simply upgrade.


I wouldn't make him the selection, but +20.58 makes Evening Saigon worth watching at a bigger price.

---

Horses receiving significant trainer negatives​

There are quite a few.


The clean VERY STRONG NEGATIVE runners in this race include:


Spycatcher -55.02
Hammer The Hammer -52.08
Rock On Thunder -51.42
Ardisia -46.99
Stratusnine -33.17
Caburn -21.52
Fahrenheit Seven -19.03
Two Tribes -11.65


These are meaningfully different from the conflicted negatives because the V1.5.2 rules require at least two negative domains and no opposing positive domain of +4 or greater.


That gives us a very useful way of separating apparently similar horses.

---

How I think the race unfolds​

At the start:


RUN BOY RUN goes forward.


VOLTERRA and CANDY sit close.


SPYCATCHER / STRATUSNINE should be within striking distance.


Then we have the midfield group.


Further back:


TUCO SALAMANCA
BINHAREER
FAR ABOVE DREAM
TWILIGHT CALLS


The crucial point comes around halfway.


If Run Boy Run gets control and Volterra sits quietly behind him, Volterra becomes much more dangerous.


If Candy and others force the pace harder, the advantage swings towards:


Twilight Calls
Far Above Dream
Binhareer


Tuco Salamanca is slightly different. I don't have him as the best closer, but he's close enough to the top of AbilityPlus that he doesn't need everything to go perfectly to be competitive.


And that's why the trainer score pushes him to the top for me.

---

Final assessment​

SELECTION — TUCO SALAMANCA​

The combination I like is:


AbilityPlus #2 + positive trainer campaign score + no major clean trainer negative.


He needs to avoid getting too far behind, but of the main AbilityPlus horses he now has one of the more attractive combined profiles.

MAIN DANGER — TWILIGHT CALLS​

Best finisher in the race. If the pace heats up, he's the one I expect to be coming hardest.

SECOND DANGER — FAR ABOVE DREAM​

FinishStrength #2 and another horse who benefits from genuine early pressure.

THIRD DANGER — BINHAREER​

Excellent finishing horse and still a strong contender, but the -9.33 trainer campaign score plus weak current stable-form evidence now stop me making him the selection.

TACTICAL DANGER — VOLTERRA​

Could be very hard to pass if he gets the right prominent trip without fighting the leader.

OUTSIDER TO NOTE — EVENING SAIGON​

The +20.58 trainer campaign score is interesting enough that I wouldn't ignore him, although it is conflicted and the yard's immediate recent form remains a negative.

HORSE I WOULD MOST DOWNGRADE — SPYCATCHER​

AbilityPlus #1 but -55.02 clean very-strong trainer negative. That's the strongest disagreement between our different models in the race.


So my revised order from the complete evidence is:


TUCO SALAMANCA — Selection
TWILIGHT CALLS — Main danger
FAR ABOVE DREAM — Danger
BINHAREER — Danger
VOLTERRA — Tactical danger


And the most important lesson from this race is probably Spycatcher: the trainer modules have given us exactly the extra information we wanted when AbilityPlus alone produces a very tight top of the market.

 

[tacker]

Excellent post T tony spencer.

I have backed BINHAREER (103) a few times this week and while i've not changed my mind the race looks much harder now we've got to saturday.
This horse never does a lot wrong but did disappoint me in the silver version last year having previously won well over c/d in july 25, he then strolled up at york off a mark of 79 and was punished accordingly.
Started this season off at york in may off 99 and was beaten by the draw but again the handicapper hit him with another 5lbs which made handicapping more difficult now on 94 but ran a fine race in the workingham on ground too quick for him imo, then tried group 3 and again the ground was quick, still equipped himself well enough and in my judgement has shown himself to have improved at 4yrs of age.
So i'd expect him to be held up and put into the race 2f out and hopefully produce a group rated performance.

 

[DuckandDive]

I'd side with Two Tribes @20/1+.

Pace set up should suit. D.Egan has won on T.T. before. Trainer won race last year.

 

[FHRTIPS]

Pellitory for me