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Two methods of rating?

Hi Sooty. It is a shame that Sky's forum is no more because he put a lot of hard work into his site. I think he also had a self destruct button plus a charge of £5 i believe does not help. I do recall Sky would not except horses slow down and not speed up at the end of a race, i wonder if he is still looking for the proof in his belief.

If you look on this site and Flatstats you will find plenty of thoughts and winnining examples given by Chesham.

Arkle
 
Hi Arkle! I think Sky still has his main rating site going, which was the most work he put in i think, the forum was just a by product i believe, it seemed a bit redundant till i started posting to their i think, i sparked a few ppl to life with my views. lol!

Yes i know Chesham has posted thoughts about many races on different forums, but those are the only two definate bets i can remember him giving out, mayb he can clarify this with us. I know somedays i am down to horses who i believe have a little against them, and sometimes they win at even big prices, very frustrating; no doubt you have had the same, i know all your horses you put up were definate bets.

All the best, Paul.
 
VDW would not reveal his two methods of rating for fear we would sell them on the open market. He also felt we were putting too much emphasis on them and would use them as a means of selection. (Obviously thought we were Opportunist Systemites!).
So, without his ratings we must rewrite “Spells It All Out” using another set. It would probably go something like this:

Van Der Garry Spells It All Out (fuh uw curly kuh kicking kuh ee tuh).

Racing is confusing blah blah blah.
Cultivate temperament (use John Innes No 3).
Form is misleading blah blah blah.
Class is conflicting blah blah blah.
-o-o-o- -o-o-o- (missing link).
Ratings, these can be VDW set 1, VDW set 2, good luck with any others.

Now for some examples (at last!).

Race 1

Key: Horse, Ability (top 4 starred), Cons (lowest starred), Speed figs (top 2 starred), Daily Mail (top 2 starred).

Little Owl 36* 3* 90* 78*
Wayward Lad 23* 4* 92* 52
Fairy King 10 9* 82 63*
Mr Kidd 13* 12 47 47

At this stage don’t guess.
Always praise the highest ability rating and see if we can get more stars.
In this race nothing is straightforward Little Owl has the highest ability rating but is only second on speed and I’m beginning to get upset. To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the cook book taking note of gas mark, cooking time and most important wearing oven gloves.

I guess the selection will be Little Owl (I told you not to guess!).

Race 2

Tragus 24* 3* 73 77*
King Or Country 19* 7* 57 70
Sunset Cristo 24* 3* 72 68
The Vintner 23* - - 63
Fair View 25* 13 14 68
Bobjob 12 13 79* 72
Bregawn 18 – 88* 76
The Engineer 13 8* 71 78*

Fair View no support from our 2 ratings. Tragus a right mess when pulled up. Tells its own story (overcooked). Sunset Cristo no support from our 2 ratings. The Engineer not enough ability but gets support from one of our ratings. King Or Country got nothing.

Selection – got nothing.

Race 3

Easy Fella 11 4* - 67
Ellen Mavoureen 15* (5) 53 69
Fauloon 18* 7* 93* 78*
Fort Belvedere 13* 5* 49 75
Gaye Chance 16* 12?3*? 84* 74
Run With Pride 12 30 – 77*
Alltyre 0 - 45 58
Brandy Bird 0 – 44 44
Castletown Lad 8 - - 65
Go Gently 0 – 55 63
Gowanloch 7 5 81 73
Melerek 0 – 16 48
Tiebell 5 – 52 66
400 Nocte 0 - - 55
Acarine 9 7 67 72

Alarm bells start ringing (the house is on fire). Fauloon has support from other ratings so must be a certainty but the form is boring (probably needs a bit longer in the oven). Gaye Chance gets support from one of our ratings and form shows he was on the wrong shelf in the oven last time out. Ellen Mavoureen gets no support. Fort Belvedere gets no support and has been running against poor quality meat.

Selection – Fauloon. With experience it is not difficult to wait for the result and make up a reason why you would have picked the winner.

Race 4

Kenlis 11* 6* 57 73
Master Brutus 10* 3* - 68
Brown Barman 9* Past sell by date (always read label)
Magic Tipp 8 19 89* 78*
Greenways 12* 7* 61 76*
Turk 9* 15 81* 72
Silberto 9* 11 60 59
Game Laddie 11* - - 68
Dalket 10* - - 50

The same procedure shows I haven’t got a clue what I’m doing. I’m going for Greenways. No! Magic Tipp. No! Oh, sod it – no selection.

Race 5

No inspiration to do this race but easy to find the winner. Look at the result. Wild Gamble. (Damn it. Wrong again).

The hard work has been done and I am desperate for a bet (temperament). Little Owl will be taken and any price above one-to-seven will do. (1’m that desperate). Fauloon will also be taken. In fact, I think I’ll just do them both in a double (Idiot!). The rest will be left alone (What rest?). Why? – go back to the beginning and you will find it is all tied up with lack of temperament and not using VDW’s two sets of rating.


For those who take this subject seriously the speed figures are from the form book and should be the figures that would have appeared in the Chronicle or Handicap Book but I can’t be certain. The Daily Mail ones were submitted by George Johns (I guess) in the old Gummy site so should be accurate.
 
Hi G Garry
George Johns was Fulham LOL

There are quite a few that can be found using Two Methods Of Rating, like Lee said they can be explained in two paragraphs but then some would try to turn it into a system and experience is needed once you have applied the two methods of rating

None today,

Mutahamisa​

yesterday
 
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Further to my previous post, the following are the Haig Ratings for the 4 races in Spells It All Out.

LTO = Last time out rating adjusted for today’s weight.
Best = Best rating from this season (80-81 up to race) and last season.

To obtain Master Ratings deduct weight carried from 12st 7lb and then deduct this answer from the adjusted ratings shown.

Race 1

Key: Horse, Age & Weight, LTO (top 2 starred), Best (top 2 starred).

Little Owl 7-11-10 92* 96*
Wayward Lad 6-11-7 89* 89*
Fairy King 8-11-0 77 84
Mr Kidd 7-11-0 - 77

As you can see Little Owl is top rated on form. Which agrees with the Daily Mail.

Race 2

Tragus 9-11-11(7x) - 82*
King Or Country 10-11-10 80 80
Sunset Cristo 7-11-7 77 77
The Vintner 10-11-4 78 78
Fair View 11-11-1 70 74
Bobjob 8-11-1 - 80
Bregawn 7-10-6 82* 82*
The Engineer 9-10-2 88* 88*

Here The Engineer is clear top rated, which agrees with the Daily Mail, followed by Bregawn and Tragus.

Race 3

Easy Fella 7-11-5 68* 68*
Ellen Mavoureen 6-11-5 57 57
Fauloon 6-11-5 58 71*
Fort Belvedere 6-11-5 66* 66
Gaye Chance 6-11-5 - 66
Run With Pride 6-11-5 48 62
Alltyre 7-11-0 43 50
Brandy Bird 7-11-0 - 48
Castletown Lad 5-11-0 60 60
Go Gently 7-11-0 49 52
Gowanloch 6-11-0 66* 66
Melerek 6-11-0 35 48
Tiebell 6-11-0 54 54
400 Nocte 6-11-0 47 47
Acarine 5-10-12 66* 68*

Here Easy Fella has best lto form while Fauloon has best overall form which agrees with the Daily Mail.

Race 4

Kenlis 10-11-9(5x) 72* 74
Master Brutus 9-10-13(5x) 68 68
Brown Barman 9-10-8 - -
Magic Tipp 8-10-8 76* 83*
Greenways 6-10-6 62 76*
Turk 9-10-4 71 72
Silberto 11-10-0 56 62
Game Laddie 11-10-0 - 70
Dalket 16-10-0 40 40

Here Magic Tipp has best lto form and best overall form. Which agrees with the Daily Mail.
 
Hi G Garry I think you are mixing up two sets of Ratings when you should be looking at Two Methods of RATING

What were your Usernames on VDW Forums

D21185A0-DD72-4F46-A3ED-2455AD2BADD2.jpeg
 
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I speak from long ago memory but when i was investigating the VDW method i often found that the Class - Form horses indicated by the ability + consistency where at the top of the weights and tbf you would expect this. His final two sets of ratings shown in his after timed examples where uncannily predictive when deployed as the straighter in this respect and i concluded that if there was a key to cracking the method it would be emulating his thinking when composing these...................something which i failed to achieve.
 
Hi Chesham

I don’t think I am mixing anything up. What you have highlighted “two methods of rating” is in my opinion, just a figure of speech. VDW could just as easily have used the expression “two sets of ratings”. If you look at SIAO it clearly states “I use two sets of ratings which are compiled on different lines …”. A method of rating is ‘the act of compiling data and using calculation to come up with a figure’. This figure is your “measurement” or Rating.

Regarding my username it has always been garstonf. I don’t know why I am not garstonf on here but I seem to remember, when registering, it wouldn’t let me use that name. I can only assume it is a horse racing thing, like not being allowed to name your horse the same as a previous Derby winner. (I wonder which one of my posts won the Blue Riband). Actually, it might have said the name already existed and I tried to log in and failed.



Hi Mick

I’m afraid I don’t understand what you are saying in your last sentence but I personally think that if you can solve his two sets of ratings then you will be able to emulate his thinking when using the method. (This either agrees with what you said or is the opposite to what you said). Also, I strongly believe that the two sets of ratings are doctored, i.e individually stretched and shortened where necessary to illustrate the points he used when selecting the winners and leaving the losers. Obviously after the result was known. (This might be similar to what you were saying).
 
Garry said:
Hi Chesham

I don’t think I am mixing anything up. What you have highlighted “two methods of rating” is in my opinion, just a figure of speech. VDW could just as easily have used the expression “two sets of ratings”. If you look at SIAO it clearly states “I use two sets of ratings which are compiled on different lines …”. A method of rating is ‘the act of compiling data and using calculation to come up with a figure’. This figure is your “measurement” or Rating.

Regarding my username it has always been garstonf. I don’t know why I am not garstonf on here but I seem to remember, when registering, it wouldn’t let me use that name. I can only assume it is a horse racing thing, like not being allowed to name your horse the same as a previous Derby winner. (I wonder which one of my posts won the Blue Riband). Actually, it might have said the name already existed and I tried to log in and failed.



Hi Mick

I’m afraid I don’t understand what you are saying in your last sentence but I personally think that if you can solve his two sets of ratings then you will be able to emulate his thinking when using the method. (This either agrees with what you said or is the opposite to what you said). Also, I strongly believe that the two sets of ratings are doctored, i.e individually stretched and shortened where necessary to illustrate the points he used when selecting the winners and leaving the losers. Obviously after the result was known. (This might be similar to what you were saying).
Click to expand...
I was Classform in the Raceform Handicap Book Forum Page . Never a member of Gummy Though.

I have come across you on The Racing Forum back in 2007

You can find some of the VDW NH Data Examples here VDW - Systematic Betting
 
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Thanks for the link Chesham but the VDW-NH-Examples-Ability ratings spreadsheet is mine. I sent it to somebody years ago but I’m glad it has found its way here, having lost this on a crashed hard drive along with others that took me years to compile. At least I’ve got it back now. I also had one for the flat with every VDW race from the beginning of the flat season 1978. I don’t suppose you have seen that one floating around the Ether.
 
Garry said:
Thanks for the link Chesham but the VDW-NH-Examples-Ability ratings spreadsheet is mine. I sent it to somebody years ago but I’m glad it has found its way here, having lost this on a crashed hard drive along with others that took me years to compile. At least I’ve got it back now. I also had one for the flat with every VDW race from the beginning of the flat season 1978. I don’t suppose you have seen that one floating around the Ether.
Click to expand...
I Have seen that data sheet but trying to track it down for you. I will try again tomorrow.

Good work on your part
 
G Garry , why don't you just take the ability rating and divide by the consistency rating and try to pick from the best 2 resulting figures. It catches all the winners from siao

It usually snags the class/form horse, even canny Danny
Good luck
 
hedgehog said:
G Garry , why don't you just take the ability rating and divide by the consistency rating and try to pick from the best 2 resulting figures. It catches all the winners from siao

It usually snags the class/form horse, even canny Danny
Good luck
Click to expand...
See https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk...-in-the-style-of-pat-power.107712/post-515124

4/4 today

How many times did people like Fulham and co go over old races yet never managed to apply their theory up front, G Garry makes a good case and yes I used to subscribe to Superform with the Spiral Bound updates (Imwish it was still around as they had good Race readers too ) Bit surely the best way forward for G Garry is to be able to put his theory into Present Day , pre race examples .

Also how many explored the VDW Pedigree method

This is the link in the Screen Shot https://secure.tattersalls.ie/cat/june/2018/286.pdf
5E1CD704-A717-4F73-B8C7-5B63A423D2B2.jpeg

Result
BEF5F01D-772B-4ABA-A077-C04DA03C3182.jpegBEF5F01D-772B-4ABA-A077-C04DA03C3182.jpeg
 
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I think he was on the Mathematicians Forum, but you had to be a paying subscriber to access that Forum and I wasn’t a subscriber. I think he may have been on the Racing Forum (Again some years back) as Hensman and George J, very much the same writing style. George John’s is another name that may have also been Fulham.



All wrote very good theories about VDW methods , but never seemed to post nothing Pre Race on how they applied those theories, just tended to be after a race had been run and then claimed it was a typical VDW horse who won.

The only VDW person I Rated was Lee, but then he came from a Pre VDW Background and already had a good handle on horse race analysis .
 
Chesham Chesham,

I subscribed to the Maths site briefly a few years ago & I do seem to remember Fulham's name on the forum.

I must admit to enjoying reading his posts on the Gummy Forum.

Regards,
 
pinemarten said:
Chesham Chesham,

I subscribed to the Maths site briefly a few years ago & I do seem to remember Fulham's name on the forum.

I must admit to enjoying reading his posts on the Gummy Forum.

Regards,
Click to expand...
He seemed to have many User names and also went under Alan B , always the same writing style and never seemed to post much Pre Race. Even Lee only made about a dozen Pre Race Posts.

Try finding one pre race post that Fulham made on the Gummy Forum. We have the archive on this Forum The Gummy archive
 
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