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tomorrows goliath ..tomorrows lays!

Don__Hector

Don__Hector

Yearling
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been working on 40 lay systems been going very well,nothing over 8 bfsp

this is the test 8 winners coming up never done this before

lets see

cheers
 
this was todays offering

anyone else tried the laying find it alot easier than backing..so far anyway

basically poor past records and the thinking behind it is they are the completely wrong price ie too short like i said tmorrows goliath above

get on!
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My first thread on here was a LAY one. I would focus on horses that were between Evens and 6/4 in the forecast market.
Back then HRB didn't have Early Odds like it has today which I think would have suited my system better.
Nevertheless, I still managed to achieve a ROI of 10% to BFSP.

Currently looking at a LAY to BACK (in-running) system at SP odds between 1.8 & 3.0 for a small profit on each.
Just waiting for Chris at HRB to re-install the BF inplay data so I can check properly.

Todays test lays......

L to B Test.png

8 successful outright lays and the 3 winning horses went out to ( 1.99>2.42 ), ( 2.24>5 ) & ( 2.24>6 ) in-running.
So at least BFSP +40% would be 100% successful in this case.
So I am just trying determine the best approach. Today was a better than average day though.
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I am a fan of lay systems - just for a fact I enjoy working against the norm.

Funny enough I have just finished one myself with 3 selections today!

1606904274375.png

Now my issue is always this - what price to you not do and why.

So Don__Hector Don__Hector what made you stick with 8 as your max??? - tbh i go for around the same as i like to lay to %risk rather then flat stakes
 

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retriever retriever If you find out how to work out the l2b info let me know as its what im also trying to do rather then straight lays!

I am looking into horses the DOB high atm just because everyone has jumped on dobbing now its easy to do with bots meaning you get alot of flase dobs with people chasing price .... perfect l2b op perhaps
 
Today's lays - subject to change if they lose favouritism or move outside odds of 4/5 and 2/1 ( not yet established a Betfair range to use ).

L2B.png

Today is where the majority of them go in......lol......but will they drift enough in-running to suit our purpose?
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runnerjp said:
I am a fan of lay systems - just for a fact I enjoy working against the norm.

Funny enough I have just finished one myself with 3 selections today!

View attachment 92417

Now my issue is always this - what price to you not do and why.

So Don__Hector Don__Hector what made you stick with 8 as your max??? - tbh i go for around the same as i like to lay to %risk rather then flat stakes
Click to expand...
hi runnerjp

just a price id feel comfortable with 6 or 7s no science or numbers behind it its possible laying them price is more profitable

so much to research and look into feel lost sometimes!

cheers
retriever said:
My first thread on here was a LAY one. I would focus on horses that were between Evens and 6/4 in the forecast market.
Back then HRB didn't have Early Odds like it has today which I think would have suited my system better.
Nevertheless, I still managed to achieve a ROI of 10% to BFSP.

Currently looking at a LAY to BACK (in-running) system at SP odds between 1.8 & 3.0 for a small profit on each.
Just waiting for Chris at HRB to re-install the BF inplay data so I can check properly.

Todays test lays......

View attachment 92413

8 successful outright lays and the 3 winning horses went out to ( 1.99>2.42 ), ( 2.24>5 ) & ( 2.24>6 ) in-running.
So at least BFSP +40% would be 100% successful in this case.
So I am just trying determine the best approach. Today was a better than average day though.
.
Click to expand...
wow just learnt something today

been using forcast price up til 7.0 and position in market usually 1st and 2nd maybe clear 3rd

didnt see the early odds filter that changes things a bit !

was going to ask how do ypu deal with changing sels in a system its usually the overnight odds that do this as yesterday had several different selection that i posted last night compared to the qualifiers at 11am

cheers
 
Don__Hector said:
didnt see the early odds filter that changes things a bit !
Click to expand...

Yes, it's just been added with the new System Builder Upgrade ( along with lots of other goodies ).

I'd been moaning about no 'Early Odds' filter for ages......lol
Makes a good base for systems.....more settled.
Better than Forecast and SP is always changing.
 
retriever said:
Yes, it's just been added with the new System Builder Upgrade ( along with lots of other goodies ).

I'd been moaning about no 'Early Odds' filter for ages......lol
Makes a good base for systems.....more settled.
Better than Forecast and SP is always changing.
Click to expand...
yea definately as had 3 or 4 diff sels last night to this morning,small loss on day 3 win 8 lost 1other loser wouldnt have qualified

so do they qualifiers only appear in the morning instead of night before

cheers
 
retriever said:
Yes, it's just been added with the new System Builder Upgrade ( along with lots of other goodies ).

I'd been moaning about no 'Early Odds' filter for ages......lol
Makes a good base for systems.....more settled.
Better than Forecast and SP is always cha
Click to expand...

runnerjp said:
Ah good spot - early odds will help with my automation grab woop
Click to expand...
(y)bfsp 2.84

a couple off 1 of my systems had shortish 2nd favs well beat by odds ons, possible system happy to lay under 3.0 all day!
 
runnerjp said:
I will look at making these neater and play along with you - we might have double picks which could make for a stronger selection
Click to expand...
i did have this also in a system of fillys v male dominated race nh 2 other filters but looking at the make up of the race it was highly uncompetetive so possibly not a huge suprise

how about 2nd favs under 3.5 v short favs likely odds ons 🤔
 
thanks mate

how about this using favs overnight drifting to 2nd favs morning eps

expanded a little for 2 and 3yr olds as markets tells alot in these unexposed/improving/not ready today types - 6/4 or less overnight then 6/4 and bigger a.m

small but steady lay returns no huge liability by looks of it
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That does make sence. I will have a play around later.

Spotted this
Screenshot_20201204-080010_Chrome.jpg

Sadly it's on unibet so take with a pinch of salt but currently second in market and ground looking not in favour ... just need price to come down more and I will lay
 
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