Today's bets
- Thread starter primrose4
- Start date
I have placed a few National Hunt bets for Monday.
1.00 Exeter
In this race I am very keen upon the chances of The Composeur.
On the figures this horse seems to have the best chance.
I have also placed a saver on Raddon Top. Raddon Top is a
seasonal horse that tends to show its best form in the early part
of the New Year.
2,30 Exeter
Dan's Chosen looks to have the edge over its rivals. Representing Bob,
Midnight Glance and William Philo are all within two points of each
other upon the ratings. Standing astride this trio is Dan's Chosen who
represents sound value at c.7/2.
2.40 Plumpton
This looks a decent race. There is very little to choose upon the form book
between Storm Hill and Baddesley. I am taken by the slightly superior form
of Storm Hill, so I make this the selection.
At 11.20 a.m. I could not resist upon placing a saver upon Baddesley.
1.00 Exeter
In this race I am very keen upon the chances of The Composeur.
On the figures this horse seems to have the best chance.
I have also placed a saver on Raddon Top. Raddon Top is a
seasonal horse that tends to show its best form in the early part
of the New Year.
2,30 Exeter
Dan's Chosen looks to have the edge over its rivals. Representing Bob,
Midnight Glance and William Philo are all within two points of each
other upon the ratings. Standing astride this trio is Dan's Chosen who
represents sound value at c.7/2.
2.40 Plumpton
This looks a decent race. There is very little to choose upon the form book
between Storm Hill and Baddesley. I am taken by the slightly superior form
of Storm Hill, so I make this the selection.
At 11.20 a.m. I could not resist upon placing a saver upon Baddesley.
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In the absence of NH racing I have placed three bets upon the
Wolverhamton card, All three horses show the characteristics of
being in-form together with a liking for this particular course.
1.39 Lady Percival @ 15/8
Relevant form figures of 211 show that this mare is in peak form.
Because of the short price it may be best to include Lady Percival in
doubles and trebles.
2.39 Strong Power @ 5/1
Relevant form figures of 521 clearly suggest that this horse is improving.
The early price upon Betfair was 13/2 of 7 runners. The 5/1 is the forecast
price.
3.09 Idoapologise @ 5/1 (nap)
If you exclude the Newcastle form since it is a track at which Idoapologise
shows little in the way of form, it could be argued that Idoapologise is showing form
figures of 111.
The forecast odds are as shown above. However , 10/1 was freely available
when last seen upon Betfair. This should be the best value bet of the day.
Wolverhamton card, All three horses show the characteristics of
being in-form together with a liking for this particular course.
1.39 Lady Percival @ 15/8
Relevant form figures of 211 show that this mare is in peak form.
Because of the short price it may be best to include Lady Percival in
doubles and trebles.
2.39 Strong Power @ 5/1
Relevant form figures of 521 clearly suggest that this horse is improving.
The early price upon Betfair was 13/2 of 7 runners. The 5/1 is the forecast
price.
3.09 Idoapologise @ 5/1 (nap)
If you exclude the Newcastle form since it is a track at which Idoapologise
shows little in the way of form, it could be argued that Idoapologise is showing form
figures of 111.
The forecast odds are as shown above. However , 10/1 was freely available
when last seen upon Betfair. This should be the best value bet of the day.
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The first post of the New Year. May you all have a successful New Year.
I have examined the 1.45 at Musselburgh in detail.
I am drawn to Radetzky March. The ratings suggest that this horse
is clear on ratings alone of its two more fancied rivals. Given that this
approach to selection worked today with En Couer in the 2.30 at Plumpton,
there is no reason to ignore this approach.
The forecast price of 9/2 looks fair, although not far short of 6/1 was freely
available upon Betfair at c 9.30 p.m.
I have examined the 1.45 at Musselburgh in detail.
I am drawn to Radetzky March. The ratings suggest that this horse
is clear on ratings alone of its two more fancied rivals. Given that this
approach to selection worked today with En Couer in the 2.30 at Plumpton,
there is no reason to ignore this approach.
The forecast price of 9/2 looks fair, although not far short of 6/1 was freely
available upon Betfair at c 9.30 p.m.
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Two horses caught my attention today.
3.20 Sedgfield
Misty Mani
This horse has been running well and in a better class
of race than today's ask. The bettors have taken heed of
this horse's statistics since 6/1 was available on the Exchanges
last night. No better than 7/2 is currently available from most
layers.
3.30 Huntingdon
Man in the Shadows
To my eyes this has become a real value bet. 2/1 was the price
on the Exchanges last night. 100/30 is now freely available with
7/2 in places. Repetition of the form showed in its last race should
see this one again in the winners enclosure. Nap.
3.20 Sedgfield
Misty Mani
This horse has been running well and in a better class
of race than today's ask. The bettors have taken heed of
this horse's statistics since 6/1 was available on the Exchanges
last night. No better than 7/2 is currently available from most
layers.
3.30 Huntingdon
Man in the Shadows
To my eyes this has become a real value bet. 2/1 was the price
on the Exchanges last night. 100/30 is now freely available with
7/2 in places. Repetition of the form showed in its last race should
see this one again in the winners enclosure. Nap.
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I am having another go.
I have switched my attention to the Speedhorse statistics
whist still taking heed of class and form..
3.15 Catterick
Happy&time has quite literally been backed off the boards.
5/2 was available last night, you will be fortunate to get 7/4
at the present time.
4.15 Catterick
Although not to the same extent as Happy&time, Misty Mani
has also attracted good support with its price reducing
significantly from the available p.m. price.
Happy&time is the better horse of the two selections and his main
rival in his race is Will Victory. On form Happy&time only marginally
shades it, but on Speedratings Happy&time is comfortably clear.
With the withdrawal of Eclavant Le Monde, the main rival to Misty
Mani is removed. The only other horse that looks capable of serving
it up to Misty Mani is Belle ne Bonn. Belle is marginally ahead on form
ratings, but is more than 20 points behind on Speed ratings.
Since both selections are Speedhorses it is clear that Misty Mani must be
the race selection.
Misty Mani was also a selection upon this thread back on the 13th of
January.
I have switched my attention to the Speedhorse statistics
whist still taking heed of class and form..
3.15 Catterick
Happy&time has quite literally been backed off the boards.
5/2 was available last night, you will be fortunate to get 7/4
at the present time.
4.15 Catterick
Although not to the same extent as Happy&time, Misty Mani
has also attracted good support with its price reducing
significantly from the available p.m. price.
Happy&time is the better horse of the two selections and his main
rival in his race is Will Victory. On form Happy&time only marginally
shades it, but on Speedratings Happy&time is comfortably clear.
With the withdrawal of Eclavant Le Monde, the main rival to Misty
Mani is removed. The only other horse that looks capable of serving
it up to Misty Mani is Belle ne Bonn. Belle is marginally ahead on form
ratings, but is more than 20 points behind on Speed ratings.
Since both selections are Speedhorses it is clear that Misty Mani must be
the race selection.
Misty Mani was also a selection upon this thread back on the 13th of
January.
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The 4.10 at Wincanton looks an interesting race.
Showing improved form Wick Green looks a deserved favourite.
However, there are two strands that show that Paseo has got
the qualities to take this race.
The Racing Post ratings expect Paseo to improve quite considerably
in this race beyond anything previously achieved. By contrast,
Wick Green is only marked up by a miserly 1 point from what it
has previously achieved.
Paseo went off a short priced favourite at 2/1 last time out whilst
Wick Green was a joint second favourite.
Both Duc de Beauchene and Jaytree have slightly negative Racing Post
ratings.
Showing improved form Wick Green looks a deserved favourite.
However, there are two strands that show that Paseo has got
the qualities to take this race.
The Racing Post ratings expect Paseo to improve quite considerably
in this race beyond anything previously achieved. By contrast,
Wick Green is only marked up by a miserly 1 point from what it
has previously achieved.
Paseo went off a short priced favourite at 2/1 last time out whilst
Wick Green was a joint second favourite.
Both Duc de Beauchene and Jaytree have slightly negative Racing Post
ratings.
I have placed bets on three races today. As always it is a matter
of matching the Official Ratings with one other source of ratings
and seeing which horse comes out on top.
2.45 At The Curragh Bay Bridge at 5/2.
In this race the Stoute/Moore partnership have a runner.
The Stoute/Moore partnership is very successful in the
better class of races.
Postscript
Ryan Moore was not riding for Stoute here. Instead he was
riding for O'Brien. Moore went onto win the race, with Bay
Bridge beaten into second.
3.10 Fontwell Estacas at 7/2.
The price is very fair considering that some of the runners
could be said to have little chance on previous form shown.
On weight carried Estacas is very fairly weighted today.
To win this race Estacas has to show a slight improvement in
form previously shown since its Official Rating of 111 is based
upon its best race. Its best Form Rating achieved falls 1 point
below this.
3.55 Uttoxeter
There were two horses that on the figures that I could not split :-
Raffle Ticket @ 7/1
Walk in Clover @7/1
Given that Raffle Ticket had attracted more money than any
other horse in the race in the early hours of this morning, 7/1
looks a very fair price .
of matching the Official Ratings with one other source of ratings
and seeing which horse comes out on top.
2.45 At The Curragh Bay Bridge at 5/2.
In this race the Stoute/Moore partnership have a runner.
The Stoute/Moore partnership is very successful in the
better class of races.
Postscript
Ryan Moore was not riding for Stoute here. Instead he was
riding for O'Brien. Moore went onto win the race, with Bay
Bridge beaten into second.
3.10 Fontwell Estacas at 7/2.
The price is very fair considering that some of the runners
could be said to have little chance on previous form shown.
On weight carried Estacas is very fairly weighted today.
To win this race Estacas has to show a slight improvement in
form previously shown since its Official Rating of 111 is based
upon its best race. Its best Form Rating achieved falls 1 point
below this.
3.55 Uttoxeter
There were two horses that on the figures that I could not split :-
Raffle Ticket @ 7/1
Walk in Clover @7/1
Given that Raffle Ticket had attracted more money than any
other horse in the race in the early hours of this morning, 7/1
looks a very fair price .
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I hope that I have not missed anything upon the forum, but I
cannot see a specific section relating to today's Oaks. This is
a surprise because it is one of the flat highlights of the entire year.
I have got a cracker lined up tomorrow in the Derby. This tends to
be one of my most successful races of the year. But focussing back upon
the Oaks. Like many races the Oaks tends to go through trends that are
replaced by other trends. For a time there was a large number of double-digit
odds winners of the Oaks. Many of the horses were simply over-priced with
form readers presumably focussing on trainer and jockey rather than the form
of the horse. This trend has been reversed in recent years by more favoured
horses winning the race.
I'm hopeful rather than expectant concerning the Oaks. There appears no stand
out horse in this years renewal so a surprise result could happen. I have supported
Caernarfen @ 33/1. I believe that the reason for the large price is that the horse
has had more runs than most others in the field. Certainly as far as the Derby is
concerned this is the first factor that I look for with the fewer races run the
better the chances. The evidence for runs is less conclusive for the fillies however.
Caernarfen has shown good form and was clearly staying on up the Newmarket
hill in the 1000 Guineas. Race summarisers suggested that she needed a further
distance than 1 mile to show her true colours. Today she gets the extra distance
with a further 4 furlongs in the Oaks. Lets see what happens.
cannot see a specific section relating to today's Oaks. This is
a surprise because it is one of the flat highlights of the entire year.
I have got a cracker lined up tomorrow in the Derby. This tends to
be one of my most successful races of the year. But focussing back upon
the Oaks. Like many races the Oaks tends to go through trends that are
replaced by other trends. For a time there was a large number of double-digit
odds winners of the Oaks. Many of the horses were simply over-priced with
form readers presumably focussing on trainer and jockey rather than the form
of the horse. This trend has been reversed in recent years by more favoured
horses winning the race.
I'm hopeful rather than expectant concerning the Oaks. There appears no stand
out horse in this years renewal so a surprise result could happen. I have supported
Caernarfen @ 33/1. I believe that the reason for the large price is that the horse
has had more runs than most others in the field. Certainly as far as the Derby is
concerned this is the first factor that I look for with the fewer races run the
better the chances. The evidence for runs is less conclusive for the fillies however.
Caernarfen has shown good form and was clearly staying on up the Newmarket
hill in the 1000 Guineas. Race summarisers suggested that she needed a further
distance than 1 mile to show her true colours. Today she gets the extra distance
with a further 4 furlongs in the Oaks. Lets see what happens.
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Poz
Gelding
Hope Frankie has one last big win in him either today or tomorrow...gl with your selection
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Nice placer
P
primrose4 
Frontrunner
Stallion
Nice 40/1 placer, well done
P
primrose4
Cheers to Poz, Sean and Frontrunner yesterday.
With the Epsom Deby starting at 1.30 there is
little time to show tips.
A method which has served me well as far as the Derby
is concerned is to concentrate upon horses that have had
few races. A maximum of three races should be the norm.
It is clearly essential to have had experience in a Derby trial
in the current year. Back in the 80's the 2000 Guinneas was
often seen as the main Derby trial with the winner of this race
often showing as ante-post favourite. Those days are behind us.
The horse that I really like that has past under the radar is
Atlantic Star. The horse is currently at 18/1. Yesterday Betfred
were offering 40/1 which considering the potential of Atlantic
Star was absurd..
The horse is coming into this race with the ideal figures of 1-1.
It is the only horse in the race that shows these figures.
Having only had two runs Atlantic Star is open to bags of
improvement. Its last run was in the Sandown Classic trial.
Although winning convincingly the horse showed signs of
greeness in wishing not to run in a straight line in the home straight.
If the trainer has ironed out these kinks in the horse's style then
Atlantic Star has a real good chance of upsetting the Coolmore battalion
and denting Appleby's star too.
With the Epsom Deby starting at 1.30 there is
little time to show tips.
A method which has served me well as far as the Derby
is concerned is to concentrate upon horses that have had
few races. A maximum of three races should be the norm.
It is clearly essential to have had experience in a Derby trial
in the current year. Back in the 80's the 2000 Guinneas was
often seen as the main Derby trial with the winner of this race
often showing as ante-post favourite. Those days are behind us.
The horse that I really like that has past under the radar is
Atlantic Star. The horse is currently at 18/1. Yesterday Betfred
were offering 40/1 which considering the potential of Atlantic
Star was absurd..
The horse is coming into this race with the ideal figures of 1-1.
It is the only horse in the race that shows these figures.
Having only had two runs Atlantic Star is open to bags of
improvement. Its last run was in the Sandown Classic trial.
Although winning convincingly the horse showed signs of
greeness in wishing not to run in a straight line in the home straight.
If the trainer has ironed out these kinks in the horse's style then
Atlantic Star has a real good chance of upsetting the Coolmore battalion
and denting Appleby's star too.
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From an Official Ratings perspective I have found three horses
today that the handicapper might be interested in due to their
ORs today by comparison with previous perfomances.
3.15 Sandown
Spirit of the Bay @ 9/1
Average OR of races contested is 82. Today runs off 87.
It is the only one of five examined in the race to show this
trend.
2.05 Sandown
Lil Guf @ 7/2
Average OR of races contested is 80 and today's OR is 84.
Again, of the four horses examined it is the only horse with
an improving profile. The favourite Whats In the Bag is of
interest here since it has run in races with an average OR of
78. Today it runs off a rating of 74. Either Whats in the Bag can
be seen as a handicap blot or it is not showing any improvement
in performance. Time will tell.
3.00 York
Radiogoogoo @ 11/2
This one is a shade left-field. Without any doubt Pink Crystal is the
class horse in this race. The handicapper may not be expecting any
improvement from the horse though. In the past it has achieved an OR
of 96 and today it runs off 95. In other words the horse is 100% solid
but will show no improvement.
Of more interest to me is Radiogoogoo. Its previous best rating is 81
but the handicapper has seen solid improvement in its recent performances
to extend that to 86. If showing further improvement it may be capable of
taking the scalp of Pink Crystal.
As Meat Loaf said "two out of three ain't bad"
today that the handicapper might be interested in due to their
ORs today by comparison with previous perfomances.
3.15 Sandown
Spirit of the Bay @ 9/1
Average OR of races contested is 82. Today runs off 87.
It is the only one of five examined in the race to show this
trend.
2.05 Sandown
Lil Guf @ 7/2
Average OR of races contested is 80 and today's OR is 84.
Again, of the four horses examined it is the only horse with
an improving profile. The favourite Whats In the Bag is of
interest here since it has run in races with an average OR of
78. Today it runs off a rating of 74. Either Whats in the Bag can
be seen as a handicap blot or it is not showing any improvement
in performance. Time will tell.
3.00 York
Radiogoogoo @ 11/2
This one is a shade left-field. Without any doubt Pink Crystal is the
class horse in this race. The handicapper may not be expecting any
improvement from the horse though. In the past it has achieved an OR
of 96 and today it runs off 95. In other words the horse is 100% solid
but will show no improvement.
Of more interest to me is Radiogoogoo. Its previous best rating is 81
but the handicapper has seen solid improvement in its recent performances
to extend that to 86. If showing further improvement it may be capable of
taking the scalp of Pink Crystal.
As Meat Loaf said "two out of three ain't bad"
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I'm not as confident today as I was yesterday. The rain that has fallen
might not effect the ground too much, but the firm ground specialists will
no longer have such a large advantage.
1.40 at Sandown
The ratings imply that Sudden Ambush is the big improver here. It has been backed
accordingly. The Parent has been supported, if anything is amiss with the selection.
3.25 at Sandown
The ratings amongst a number of contenders are very tight implying that this is not
a race to get heavily involved with. I have backed Corragio but there are a large
number of other contenders who are more than capable of taking the spoils.
4.35 at Sandown
At a double digit price the topweight Inaam has a much better chance of success than
the odds imply. It is one of only two runners that the handicapper has given a higher
OR to than its average OR (in regard of races that it contests). This is normally a good sign.
The only other horse in this race to show this trend is Sonemers. By contrast Sonemers
generally contests races with horses that are inferior to todays contenders.
4.50 at York
The final furlong of this race might be contested by two very evenly matched rivals.
These being Pisanello and What's the Story. I have backed them both. By the finest
of margins Pisanella has got the better ratings. Tropez Power has the best average
individual ratings in this race, but the fact that the handicapper has him receiving weight
from the first two implies that he has ground to make up to worry the front two.
might not effect the ground too much, but the firm ground specialists will
no longer have such a large advantage.
1.40 at Sandown
The ratings imply that Sudden Ambush is the big improver here. It has been backed
accordingly. The Parent has been supported, if anything is amiss with the selection.
3.25 at Sandown
The ratings amongst a number of contenders are very tight implying that this is not
a race to get heavily involved with. I have backed Corragio but there are a large
number of other contenders who are more than capable of taking the spoils.
4.35 at Sandown
At a double digit price the topweight Inaam has a much better chance of success than
the odds imply. It is one of only two runners that the handicapper has given a higher
OR to than its average OR (in regard of races that it contests). This is normally a good sign.
The only other horse in this race to show this trend is Sonemers. By contrast Sonemers
generally contests races with horses that are inferior to todays contenders.
4.50 at York
The final furlong of this race might be contested by two very evenly matched rivals.
These being Pisanello and What's the Story. I have backed them both. By the finest
of margins Pisanella has got the better ratings. Tropez Power has the best average
individual ratings in this race, but the fact that the handicapper has him receiving weight
from the first two implies that he has ground to make up to worry the front two.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Well done yesterday
P
primrose4 , and good luck today especially with Sudden Ambush.
What has happened to my favourite section of the forum
"Race of the day (also sometimes known as "common race")?
I can only assume that everybody is so eager to take the early value
at Royal Ascot that this has been overlooked for one day. The other
reason is that today's racing is, to put it mildly, underwhelming.
We still need to boost those Royal Ascot betting banks though.
I have found two likely candidates at Carlisle :-
3.50 at Carlisle
Time Traveller
I am convinced that the 4/1 allegedly available at Hills was never
offered to the general public. At no time last night did Betfair
waver above 7/2. Anyhow, Time Traveller looks well in with both
Alpine Express and Optician. Time Traveller was only just beaten
in its relevant race and has no weight problems to overcome.
Optician was beaten too far to worry an in-form rival in this race.
Alpine Express is the worst weighted of the three in the sense that
it is the only one of the three to carry more weight than it should.
4.53 at Carlisle
Purple Martini
Purple Martini looks the one capable of taking out both Platinum Girl
and In the Giving. Platinum Girl was beaten too far in her relevant race.
She clearly must improve to worry Purple Martini whilst In the Giving
is not well weighted in terms of modest form shown.
"Race of the day (also sometimes known as "common race")?
I can only assume that everybody is so eager to take the early value
at Royal Ascot that this has been overlooked for one day. The other
reason is that today's racing is, to put it mildly, underwhelming.
We still need to boost those Royal Ascot betting banks though.
I have found two likely candidates at Carlisle :-
3.50 at Carlisle
Time Traveller
I am convinced that the 4/1 allegedly available at Hills was never
offered to the general public. At no time last night did Betfair
waver above 7/2. Anyhow, Time Traveller looks well in with both
Alpine Express and Optician. Time Traveller was only just beaten
in its relevant race and has no weight problems to overcome.
Optician was beaten too far to worry an in-form rival in this race.
Alpine Express is the worst weighted of the three in the sense that
it is the only one of the three to carry more weight than it should.
4.53 at Carlisle
Purple Martini
Purple Martini looks the one capable of taking out both Platinum Girl
and In the Giving. Platinum Girl was beaten too far in her relevant race.
She clearly must improve to worry Purple Martini whilst In the Giving
is not well weighted in terms of modest form shown.
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Although there is no evidence upon the forum, yesterday was a golden
day for me with all three races providing winners. In two of the three races
I did back two horses.
I am anxiously waiting for tomorrow's racing at York because if the price is right
there looks to be a cracking bet.
The three races that I have focussed upon today are all at York.
2.05 at York
Able Kane looks the class horse here and has been backed accordingly.
The method that I used yesterday would have selected Gweedore. At
the available prices they have both been backed to win.
2.40 at York
You would have a strong hand in this race if you were to support both
Gale Force Maya and Radio Gaa Gaa.
4.45 at York
I have backed only one horse in this race and that is the nap selection
of Another Investment. Doctor Khan Junior has the form in this race to
be a threat but Another Investment may have too much in hand to repel
the threat.
The only race at Newmarket that interested me was the 3.00.
I am in agreement with most others that Live Your Dream is the likely
winner. Odds of little greater than 2/1 do not represent great value so it
is currently a watching brief upon this race.
day for me with all three races providing winners. In two of the three races
I did back two horses.
I am anxiously waiting for tomorrow's racing at York because if the price is right
there looks to be a cracking bet.
The three races that I have focussed upon today are all at York.
2.05 at York
Able Kane looks the class horse here and has been backed accordingly.
The method that I used yesterday would have selected Gweedore. At
the available prices they have both been backed to win.
2.40 at York
You would have a strong hand in this race if you were to support both
Gale Force Maya and Radio Gaa Gaa.
4.45 at York
I have backed only one horse in this race and that is the nap selection
of Another Investment. Doctor Khan Junior has the form in this race to
be a threat but Another Investment may have too much in hand to repel
the threat.
The only race at Newmarket that interested me was the 3.00.
I am in agreement with most others that Live Your Dream is the likely
winner. Odds of little greater than 2/1 do not represent great value so it
is currently a watching brief upon this race.
There is a horse running today at Ayr in the 5.30 which
I can only regard as a steal at the current price. You should
be able to obtain around 20/1 currently upon Betfair.
The horse is Don't Look Back. Anybody taking a cursory look
at the recent form figures would be excused in thinking that
this horse has little chance. What enthuses me is that all of the
recent runs have been upon right handed tracks. Don't Look Back
has never shown anything upon tracks such as Hamilton but at
left handed tracks the horse has put in performances which are the
equal of anything else in this race.
If it is a plot then Lucinda Russell has been very clever.
Perhaps the biggest down side is that the horse is set to carry a high
weight which upon soft going will not be easy. The other threats are
also set to carry large weights so this will be no excuse for defeat.
The 3 year old weight advantage does impede the likes of Don't Look
Back, but I still believe that it can win.
I have placed a saver on this race upon Arch Moon since its sire stats
at Ayr are noticeablly better than anything else in the race.
I have found two more good sorts in the evening races at Killarney.
I have done well recently in the evening meetings, sometimes hauling
myself back from daytime losses.
6.20 Fleetfootsoldier
This one is at the top of the tree on all ratings methods. 3/1 is a very
fair price.
6.50 Joe Massena
This horse appears to be very under-rated. Deserves to carry top-weight
and a bold showing is expected. By the term "bold showing" I am expecting
a win.
I can only regard as a steal at the current price. You should
be able to obtain around 20/1 currently upon Betfair.
The horse is Don't Look Back. Anybody taking a cursory look
at the recent form figures would be excused in thinking that
this horse has little chance. What enthuses me is that all of the
recent runs have been upon right handed tracks. Don't Look Back
has never shown anything upon tracks such as Hamilton but at
left handed tracks the horse has put in performances which are the
equal of anything else in this race.
If it is a plot then Lucinda Russell has been very clever.
Perhaps the biggest down side is that the horse is set to carry a high
weight which upon soft going will not be easy. The other threats are
also set to carry large weights so this will be no excuse for defeat.
The 3 year old weight advantage does impede the likes of Don't Look
Back, but I still believe that it can win.
I have placed a saver on this race upon Arch Moon since its sire stats
at Ayr are noticeablly better than anything else in the race.
I have found two more good sorts in the evening races at Killarney.
I have done well recently in the evening meetings, sometimes hauling
myself back from daytime losses.
6.20 Fleetfootsoldier
This one is at the top of the tree on all ratings methods. 3/1 is a very
fair price.
6.50 Joe Massena
This horse appears to be very under-rated. Deserves to carry top-weight
and a bold showing is expected. By the term "bold showing" I am expecting
a win.
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