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Today's bets

I am glad that I did not place a bet last night at Haydock before looking at the ratings.
Last night I could not believe that Nazannin was available at 16/1 in the 2.30. This
horse had all the hallmarks of a significant improver. Also, being drawn in stall 14 is a
big advantage as far as Haydock sprints are concerned.
However, in the morning I did some ratings and this is what emerged:-

Nazannin 101
Gale Force Maya 100
Flotus 112

Flotus is the clear selection.

Sense of Duty is a very promising young sprinter but its form falls short of the
principals in this particular race.
An improver certainly.

The 4.45 has a more open look about it :-

Grifter 65
Animator 77
Rich King 72
Tamila 65

Before taking weight carried into account Rich King comes out
best upon the ratings at 79. All bar Animator are somewhat
hindered by the weights they are set to carry, so for this reason
Animator is the selection.
 
I have done well enough in recent days to resume posting.
The only race at Leicester to interest me is the 3.50.
In this race I have backed two likely outsiders :-

Sarsons Risk @8/1
Polyphonic @ 12/1

Both these horses have form that is good enough to make them
contenders.

At Windsor the money has been placed upon :-

6.40 Novello @ 7/2 (nap)
7.10 Enigmatic @ 7/1

Perhaps Enigmatic could come with a warning since it is 8 years old.

Again, both horses have put in recent performances that suggest they
have the capability to take these races.
 
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A lot of bettors dislike betting at Brighton. Perhaps it
is due to the somewhat unique layout of the track,
having a very pronounced dogleg.
When looking back at my own betting records I was very
surprised to find out that it is one of my most successful
tracks.

2.30 Brighton

I am very pleased to have taken the early price concerning
Zulu Girl since this one is one of the top three supported
horses of the day. A track specialist that is reasonably well
weighted. I am expecting a win.
Break Out could be the main danger.

3.15 Beverley

I am less surprised that Beverley is in the top four of my most
successful betting tracks since I seem to specialise at some of
the lesser Northern tracks.
It is no surprise to see that Mystica is a well supported favourite
in the 3.15. I have taken the early price on this one too.
On the ORs Mystica has clearly got something in hand upon its
rivals and should be winning well (or should that be ran on well ?).
 
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Well done Kralken, a fine winner for you.
You put some amazing statistics together
there Chesham. The only problem that I can
forsee with such a wide range of statistics is
that if you were to examine every horse in the
race with that level of scrutiny, that you must
surely restrict yourself to three or four races a day.

There is also the problem that if you spend over one
hour on a single race that you feel the compulsion to bet.
This is something that can be a hard habit to break.



.
 
Thank You P primrose4 Chesham Chesham Is very thorough with his assessments of each race i believe he has done all the donkey work on his class sheets so he will have his bets sorted for the day. What he also does is try and help other people with snippets he may feel are helpful in picking a horse along with other helpful people on here
 
primrose4 said:
Well done Kralken, a fine winner for you.
You put some amazing statistics together
there Chesham. The only problem that I can
forsee with such a wide range of statistics is
that if you were to examine every horse in the
race with that level of scrutiny, that you must
surely restrict yourself to three or four races a day.

There is also the problem that if you spend over one
hour on a single race that you feel the compulsion to bet.
This is something that can be a hard habit to break.



.
Click to expand...
Hi P primrose4

The Trainers comments when he mentioned one negative being the distance of 7f, that made me look. The 4 career wins were over 1 mile.

Zulu Girl will probably be dropped a few Lbs by the BHA Handicapper After yesterday.

I run a thread called “In The Zone” it was a comment that Mtoto often mentioned “This horse, this race”


Zulu Girl could be one to watch when moving into the Zone

F5B4DFFC-2A0B-4B6B-A0CD-90D24B92B05F.jpeg
Pre Race Example

1965721B-25A5-4BB4-8AF4-FDF2DAD15631.jpeg
 
I have made three selections today. Unfortunately, all three
have contracted in price since being selected very late last
night. In other words there is no money going down upon
them.

2.43 Newbury

Perfect Alibi (9/4 from an initial 100/30)

4.20 Nottingham

Laredo (7/2 from an initial 5/1)

8.40 Newmarket

Rum Cocktail (6/4 from an initial 2/1)

I did consider placing them into doubles to increase
any possible winnings, but a more sensible idea may
be to keep the powder dry until tomorrow.

All of the three above possess good Speed Figures in the
context of today's races.
 
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I made two bets last night and the two horses could not have gone in more
opposite directions :-

3.20 Pontefract KINCADE
Last night near to 11/4 was freely available on the Exchange. This horse must
be one of the best supported horses of the day since a more recent price
is 13/8. I realise that one of the main contenders has been withdrawn from the
race, but this alone does not account for the serious contraction in price.

5.20 Pontefract FAST AND LOOSE
I thought that the 9/1 available last night represented excellent value. So I was
surprised to see that the horse was showing at 12/1 with most layers first thing
in the morning. I was very pleased to find out that during the walk to my local
Hills that the price had been extended even further to 16/1, so I increased the
stake I was due to place with a few coppers.

Both of the horses above have run in recent races against greatly improved types.
Both of the horses put up a good performance too.
 
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A good day yesterday with a winner and a massive priced second.
I have found another couple of useful sorts that have run good recent races
against improving horses :-

2.00 Nottingham
Control
This one looks very over-priced at 5/1 of 6. Control has kept better company than
the odds on favourite Holocence. I believe that Holocence is running on potential
rather than achievement.

3.20 Brighton
Spring Glow
Another horse that looks over-priced at 17/2. Because of the unusual camber at
Brighton a horse often needs a lot of luck to win. Again, Spring Glow has put
in a couple of very sound recent performances that suggest that a victory here will
not be a surprise.
 
Its Bank Holiday Monday at the end of August. In many previous seasons this meant that
the first race to concentrate upon was the Ripon Rowells. In previous seasons this used to
be a very prestigious race with a great deal of prize money due to the winning stable.
Unfortunately, in recent seasons the race has declined in both prestige and prize money.

All of today's selections have the same hallmark that it is the time of year when they perform
at their best :-

3.08 Ripon Garden Oasis @ 5/1

3.15 Epsom Bowman @ 7/1

4.16 Ripon Cosmos Raj @ 11/4

4.25 Epsom Arevas Del Tiempo @ 9/1

I believe that both Bowman and Arevas Del Tiempo are overpriced in relation to their chances of
winning. I also shortlisted Bonita B in the 2.05 at Epsom, but believe that the13/8 is too short a
price in relation to its chances of winning the race.



Postsctipt
A truly dreadful tipping performance. When looking back at the characteristics of what qualities
the winning horses at Ripon possessed, two things became apparent :-

1. The winners of the races were those that had previously contested the highest value races by
money value. This is regardless of finishing position.

2. The number of tips shown against a horses name was of significance. The greater the number of
tips the greater the chance the horse had of winning.

Placing these two things together would have found a large number of winners at this meeting.
 
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The 4.50 at Windsor looks an interesting race.
At a price of c.11/4 I can see Eklil taking this race.
Eklil possesses the best form in this race with the
race taking place upon the 11/7 being the key piece
of form. The horse that beat Eklil, Just A Tad, has
continued to improve after this race.
The jockey riding Eklil has got a 25% record when
riding for the Rae Guest stable.
 
I'm not much of a NH bettor but do prefer watching this style of racing.
I have focussed upon two races today :-

2.05 at Worcester

It is no surprise to see that Elios d'Or (nap) has been well supported throughout
the morning. With one of its main rivals now declared a non-runner, the main
danger could come from Only Money. Keep an eye on Courtland in this race since
this one can be considered an improving sort.

2.17 at Folkestone

If Elios d'Or has contracted in price, the selection in this race has done the opposite.
Carolyne's Charm (n.b.) has drifted like a barge pole from last night's initial price.
I have rated Carolyne's Charm against two of its principal rivals in Winterwatch and
In the Air. The figures that I produce which are a combination of form and weight
show the selection as having something in hand of its rivals.
 
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