Frontrunner
Stallion
Starting this thread to post my thoughts and selections. Any views and opinions are welcome.
8:10 Kempton - class 6 sprint handicap with top rating of 51 probably not the best race to start the thread with but here it is. Course form and draw are the main things I am considering for this race. There is a strong draw bias here, of 55 handicaps run over CD on same going (standard to slow) and same field size (11 runners), 34 (62%) have been won by those drawn in stalls 1-4, and only 3 wins (less than 2% strike rate) for those drawn in outside 3 stalls.
Most of these have run here before, but have only 2 wins between them from 45 runs here, the two course winners are Mont Kiara, potentially well handicapped but drawn in stall 10 today (was drawn 1 when he won here). Other course winner Krazy Paving badly out of form (has beaten a total of 2 horses in his last 3 races) but is drawn well.
Top two in betting have the two inside stalls. Urban Highway, drawn 1, has run 4 times over CD, with best placing of 4th of 12 but that was the only time he has been in lower half of the draw (stall 5 of 12). He is 21 lbs lower than that effort and is weighted to go close from this draw, his career record of 1 from 22 makes it hard to be too confident though. Favourite, Charles Le Brun, is running at Kempton for first time after an improved effort on fibresand debut last time, his sire Equiano does particularly well on fibresand though. Not so good on polytrack, and especially here at Kempton his strike rate is the 2nd lowest of all stallions represented in this race. CLB’s half brother Spin Top was 0 from 5 (1 placing) at Kempton, so on pedigree I have reservations about him here. Interesting jockey booking though of Richard Kingscote, who does very well here especially in sprint races.
Hard to be confident in a race like this, but I have already backed Urban Highway despite his poor strike rate as there are a few positives in his favour today. I wouldn’t completely rule out Krazy Paving at a big price but he does need to return to form.
8:10 Kempton - class 6 sprint handicap with top rating of 51 probably not the best race to start the thread with but here it is. Course form and draw are the main things I am considering for this race. There is a strong draw bias here, of 55 handicaps run over CD on same going (standard to slow) and same field size (11 runners), 34 (62%) have been won by those drawn in stalls 1-4, and only 3 wins (less than 2% strike rate) for those drawn in outside 3 stalls.
Most of these have run here before, but have only 2 wins between them from 45 runs here, the two course winners are Mont Kiara, potentially well handicapped but drawn in stall 10 today (was drawn 1 when he won here). Other course winner Krazy Paving badly out of form (has beaten a total of 2 horses in his last 3 races) but is drawn well.
Top two in betting have the two inside stalls. Urban Highway, drawn 1, has run 4 times over CD, with best placing of 4th of 12 but that was the only time he has been in lower half of the draw (stall 5 of 12). He is 21 lbs lower than that effort and is weighted to go close from this draw, his career record of 1 from 22 makes it hard to be too confident though. Favourite, Charles Le Brun, is running at Kempton for first time after an improved effort on fibresand debut last time, his sire Equiano does particularly well on fibresand though. Not so good on polytrack, and especially here at Kempton his strike rate is the 2nd lowest of all stallions represented in this race. CLB’s half brother Spin Top was 0 from 5 (1 placing) at Kempton, so on pedigree I have reservations about him here. Interesting jockey booking though of Richard Kingscote, who does very well here especially in sprint races.
Hard to be confident in a race like this, but I have already backed Urban Highway despite his poor strike rate as there are a few positives in his favour today. I wouldn’t completely rule out Krazy Paving at a big price but he does need to return to form.
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