The Singles Bar
- Thread starter Scooter_Boy
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Scooter_Boy
Mare
Thanks once again Tony, I have had a little look at the data in closer detail; less bets and slightly more profit perhaps from an idea I had a few weeks ago; I'll put any 'most fancied' selects up here before the weekend as we have yet another Euro interuption to contend with.
J
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Yet another weekend with a rather short list of qualifiers; a few ruled out on too short odds alone and several more missing the cut by just a few points here and there.
02/10/15 Celta Vigo - Getafe @ 1.50
03/10/15 Sevilla - Barcelona @ 2.00
04/10/15 Levante - Villarreal @ 1.95
04/10/15 Palermo - AS Roma @ 2.00
04/10/15 Bayern Munich - Dortmund @ 1.55
Best of the bunch for me despite the short odds would be Celta Vigo who play this evening.
J
02/10/15 Celta Vigo - Getafe @ 1.50
03/10/15 Sevilla - Barcelona @ 2.00
04/10/15 Levante - Villarreal @ 1.95
04/10/15 Palermo - AS Roma @ 2.00
04/10/15 Bayern Munich - Dortmund @ 1.55
Best of the bunch for me despite the short odds would be Celta Vigo who play this evening.
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Vigo get thrashed 5-1 .............on Yellow cards anyway. 
A 0-0 scoreline on the night, slightly disappointing as the DC on offer was only Ca. 1.17 so no chance to cover it that way.
Onwards.
J
A 0-0 scoreline on the night, slightly disappointing as the DC on offer was only Ca. 1.17 so no chance to cover it that way.
Onwards.
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
The away situation is beginning to drift a little more into the red now showing -5.91 points. At home, heads are just above the water with +3.30 points profit overall.
After 41 matches there is a small loss of -2.91 points.
The strike rate for Odds On Home matches is 66.7% yet shows a profit of just 2.25 pts after 18 games @ 1.50 or higher odds. The performance of the home sides is not sufficient to turn the system into an overall profit as yet.
J
After 41 matches there is a small loss of -2.91 points.
The strike rate for Odds On Home matches is 66.7% yet shows a profit of just 2.25 pts after 18 games @ 1.50 or higher odds. The performance of the home sides is not sufficient to turn the system into an overall profit as yet.
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
The number of selects whilst never prolific, appear to be dwindling lately; just the three for the coming weekend.
J
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Two wins in St Etienne and Wolfsburg but Sampdoria's woes continue with yet a another dismal display: + 0.15 pts to add to the pot before the next round.
J
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Weekend updates all matches. Possibly a few more for this weekend to finalise.
Aways figures are in the red and home results gasping for breath too. Just 44 games in and maybe a more thorough look at the data thus far is required.
Edit: corrected data
J
Aways figures are in the red and home results gasping for breath too. Just 44 games in and maybe a more thorough look at the data thus far is required.
Edit: corrected data
J
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Scooter_Boy
Mare
Just the four at best odds.
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Aways are showing a loss of 6.91 pts Homes at low odds are behind 1.65 pts only Home with odds 1.75 and above are showing a profit of 6.10 pts from just seven games. Plenty to think about as none of the four matches posted earlier are within the ranges showing a LSP.
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Three wins from four matches and just the one point profit.
SR is spot on but points profit is still too skinny.
J
SR is spot on but points profit is still too skinny.
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Tonight I have
Bologna - Inter available @ 1.83 @ BV
Previous bets at this price point have a mediocre SR, no wins yet from three bets, two draws and a loss.
The best odds DC is an excruciatingly poor 1.18.
J
Bologna - Inter available @ 1.83 @ BV
Previous bets at this price point have a mediocre SR, no wins yet from three bets, two draws and a loss.
The best odds DC is an excruciatingly poor 1.18.
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Wednesday 28th
Sassuolo - Juventus @ 1.80 WillHills. DC is Ca. 1.20
Dep. La Coruna - Atl. Madrid @ 1.80 Bet365. DC 1.20
Saturday 31st
Juventus - Torino @ 1.57 Paddy P. DC is 1.13
St Etienne - Reims @ 1.67 Paddy P. DC 1.15
Sunday 1st November
Monaco - Angers @ 1.67 Paddy P. DC 1.14
j
Sassuolo - Juventus @ 1.80 WillHills. DC is Ca. 1.20
Dep. La Coruna - Atl. Madrid @ 1.80 Bet365. DC 1.20
Saturday 31st
Juventus - Torino @ 1.57 Paddy P. DC is 1.13
St Etienne - Reims @ 1.67 Paddy P. DC 1.15
Sunday 1st November
Monaco - Angers @ 1.67 Paddy P. DC 1.14
j
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Just about at B/E with one game to play today.
Full update later
J
Full update later
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Monaco hold out for a 1-0 win yesterday, they keep it tight in a gaggle of clubs lining up behind PSG in a real fight for a Euro place next season.
The home sides SR is almost 90%, surely more than enough to say this is more than a random set of results, although possible not sufficient for a Chi Square test just yet to test the Observed Vs Expected ratio of winners breaking out the old stats text books as I type......
So far Home matches are P 26 W 20, D 3 L 3 and +7.51 points, not that much to write home about; saying that the lowest odds Home matches from 1.50 to 1.74 are P 19 W 13 D 3 L3 for just +1.41 points whilst +6.10 points come from the remaining 7 matches.
The away selections are floundering at -8.23 points from 28 matches, I may need different filters by the looks of things.
This past weeks six matches delivered just +0.74 points profit from 4 wins and 2 losses (1 Draw and 1 Loss), the 3 home matches all won.
J
The home sides SR is almost 90%, surely more than enough to say this is more than a random set of results, although possible not sufficient for a Chi Square test just yet to test the Observed Vs Expected ratio of winners breaking out the old stats text books as I type......
So far Home matches are P 26 W 20, D 3 L 3 and +7.51 points, not that much to write home about; saying that the lowest odds Home matches from 1.50 to 1.74 are P 19 W 13 D 3 L3 for just +1.41 points whilst +6.10 points come from the remaining 7 matches.
The away selections are floundering at -8.23 points from 28 matches, I may need different filters by the looks of things.
This past weeks six matches delivered just +0.74 points profit from 4 wins and 2 losses (1 Draw and 1 Loss), the 3 home matches all won.
J
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Scooter_Boy
Mare
With the absence of any qualifiers the week before last and Internationals last week, things had gone quiet, however there are a few this weekend and odds are being cut left right and centre already so I'll post them now.
21/11/15 Bologna - AS Roma 1.75
21/11/15 M'gladbach – Hannover 1.55
21/11/15 Wolfsburg – Bremen 1.62
21/11/15 Valencia – Las Palmas 1.50
22/11/15 Willem II – PSV 1.50
22/11/15 Real Betis – Atl. Madrid 1.62
ATB, J
21/11/15 Bologna - AS Roma 1.75
21/11/15 M'gladbach – Hannover 1.55
21/11/15 Wolfsburg – Bremen 1.62
21/11/15 Valencia – Las Palmas 1.50
22/11/15 Willem II – PSV 1.50
22/11/15 Real Betis – Atl. Madrid 1.62
ATB, J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
C
cluster, there is quite limited amount of data at present and the concern is that Home sides with odds of 1.50 to 1.74 inclusive only make a tiny profit; I suppose in one sense the losses may also be small in total in that respect but still, bookies have squeezed the odds that even with a 68% strike rate the profit is marginal at just 1.41 points from 19 matches thus far.
Home bets do make a profit of 5 points from six matches but this is of course to be treated with great care as the sample size is so small.
Similarly, Away sides with odds 1.50 to 1.74 also struggle to make a profit with a strike rate the same as the home sides. In fact, away sides have struggled with this method since the start of this thread.
So Home wins ARE best so far, but the bookies offer so little that it looks as if large profits are still a long way away.
This simple little system is all based around the Racing and Football Outlook paper ratings where the side in question is 50 points or higher better off in total than the opposition and at least 50 points difference between the Home rating and the away rating - simple as that. The problem is (as always) is that as the points difference grows the available odds decrease - the bookies have such sides that are far superior on paper well marked and the odds present little value.
For my part, I'll be following your horse racing system!
All the best, John
Home bets do make a profit of 5 points from six matches but this is of course to be treated with great care as the sample size is so small.
Similarly, Away sides with odds 1.50 to 1.74 also struggle to make a profit with a strike rate the same as the home sides. In fact, away sides have struggled with this method since the start of this thread.
So Home wins ARE best so far, but the bookies offer so little that it looks as if large profits are still a long way away.
This simple little system is all based around the Racing and Football Outlook paper ratings where the side in question is 50 points or higher better off in total than the opposition and at least 50 points difference between the Home rating and the away rating - simple as that. The problem is (as always) is that as the points difference grows the available odds decrease - the bookies have such sides that are far superior on paper well marked and the odds present little value.
For my part, I'll be following your horse racing system!
All the best, John
Scooter_Boy
Mare
21/11/15 Bologna - AS Roma 1.75 D 2-2 a late penalty foils the win.
21/11/15 M'gladbach – Hannover 1.55 W 2-1 with a late goal to take the points
21/11/15 Wolfsburg – Bremen 1.62 W 6-0 Probably the best bet on the stats
21/11/15 Valencia – Las Palmas 1.50 D 1-1 no complaints....
22/11/15 Willem II – PSV 1.50 D 2-2 yet another shocker from PSV
22/11/15 Real Betis – Atl. Madrid 1.62 W 0-1 an early goal takes the points
-1.21 pts if taking them all on. None at Odds Against as per the recent schedule and an International interruption not helping the cause perhaps? Looking forward to getting more data this week.
J
21/11/15 M'gladbach – Hannover 1.55 W 2-1 with a late goal to take the points
21/11/15 Wolfsburg – Bremen 1.62 W 6-0 Probably the best bet on the stats
21/11/15 Valencia – Las Palmas 1.50 D 1-1 no complaints....
22/11/15 Willem II – PSV 1.50 D 2-2 yet another shocker from PSV
22/11/15 Real Betis – Atl. Madrid 1.62 W 0-1 an early goal takes the points
-1.21 pts if taking them all on. None at Odds Against as per the recent schedule and an International interruption not helping the cause perhaps? Looking forward to getting more data this week.
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Uncharacteristically, the RFO have made a mess of the Portuguese and Dutch ratings this week rendering them unusable; I could use last weeks at a pinch but have decided just to go with the correct league ratings.
Tonight
Lyon - Montpellier 1.57 at BV
Sunday
Palermo - Juve 1.62 at BV
Roma - Atalanta 1.50 at BV
J
Tonight
Lyon - Montpellier 1.57 at BV
Sunday
Palermo - Juve 1.62 at BV
Roma - Atalanta 1.50 at BV
J