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    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
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    AR

The Singles Bar

11/09/15 Levante - Sevilla @ 1.80 1-1
12/09/15 Twente - Ajax @ 1.83 2-2
12/09/15 Cambuur - PSV @ 1.50 0-6
13/09/15 Ath Bilbao - Getafe @ 1.57 3-1
13/09/15 Rio Ave - Sporting @ 1.50 1-2

The last three games all won but the odds failed to overcome the two losing draws so -0.43 pts over the weekend and -3.65 pts overall. At 60% correct still not enough to turn a profit. The DC only paid out at 2.07 so not worth the effort really.


J
 
A flurry of activity this week.

19/09/15 Wolfsburg - Hertha Berlin @ 1.53
19/09/15 Valencia - Betis @ 1.55
19/09/15 Guingamp - GFC Ajaccio @ 1.95
19/09/15 Heracles - PSV @ 1.62

20/09/15 Genoa - Juventus
20/09/15 Monaco - Lorient @ 1.70
20/09/15 St Etienne - Nantes @ 1.80
20/09/15 Excelsior - Ajax @ 1.57
21/09/15 Braga – Maritimo @ 1.80

After logging all the P/L I realise that the current state of affairs is slightly less than quoted at -2.10 pts after 17 matches which isn't at all bad considering the bare filtering.
Only 3 games at home for W 2 L 1 and + 0.52
Away P 14 W 7 L7 for -2.62 pts.


J
 
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Simple ranking test just as a quick assessment of confidence; again we'll see if there is anything in this. Just playing around with the numbers in the absence of any decent DT selections. Plenty of work behind the scenes just nothing much to post up lately whilst waiting for the Euro leagues to gather some data for Poisson.

1. 19/09/15 Valencia - Betis
2. 20/09/15 Excelsior - Ajax
3. 20/09/15 St Etienne - Nantes
4. 19/09/15 Wolfsburg - Hertha Berlin
5. 19/09/15 Heracles - PSV
6. 20/09/15 Monaco - Lorient
7. 19/09/15 Guingamp - GFC Ajaccio

20/09/15 Genoa - Juventus* (1.87)
21/09/15 Braga* – Maritimo


* Do not qualify


J
 
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PSV and Valencia let it slip whilst Guingamp and Wolfsburg stick to Plan A.

P 4 W 2 D 1 L 1 and -1.52 pts at the moment (yesterdays tally's only) with the remaining cohort to play today/tomorrow.

J
 
Main bet method
20/09/15 Genoa - Juventus W 0-2 +0.87
20/09/15 Monaco - Lorient @ 1.70 L 2-3 - 1.00 pts
20/09/15 St Etienne - Nantes @ 1.80 W 2-0 +0.80 pts
20/09/15 Excelsior - Ajax @ 1.57 W 0-2 + 0.57 pts
21/09/15 Braga – Maritimo @ 1.80 Play tonight


+1.24 pts yesterday with one game to run.
Weekend so far: -0.28 pts
Considering the thought processes of the basic idea, a system only marginally down after so many games shows great potential as I don't recall either having added or subtracting anything from the original premise.

This weekend so far: P 8 W 5 D 1 L 2

Overall Home: P 12 W 8 D 2 L 2
Overall Away: P 10 W 5 D 2 L 3

Totals P 22 W 13 D 4 L 5

This takes out the two Portuguese matches that were under 1.50 and any other match I mentioned in the earlier posts that I would not count as they too were under the cut off limit of 1.50

Ok; I all sorted and checked........ahem......

Overall Home and Away pts totals
Home: +2.15 pts
Away: -2.40 pts
Overall: -0.25 pts

Looks like some filtering for Away sides is required to turn the idea into a profitable one.

Correction: I thought Monaco had drawn 2-2, turns out Lorient turned them over - another Euro hangover for one of the top sides. Thankfully it didn't affect the overall points totals.

J
 
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A convincing win for Braga to complete the results for the selections in this round.


Results_2015-09-21.png

I give myself cause for a little optimism - but not too much. Two red cards for Maritimo when already 3-1 down probably wouldn't have affected the final outcome.

J
 
Previous table has entries out of line so I'll be pedantic and re-post the chart.
Amended_ 2015-09-22.png

Hopefully all correct now. And finally in profit for a short while...

J
 
Some midweek action from Europe and no interuptions from domestic cup matches.................

23/09/15 Fiorentina - Bologna @ 1.50 BV
23/09/15 Hoffenheim - Dortmund @ 1.50 BV
23/09/15 Ath Bilbao - Real Madrid @ 1.67 Sport Bet
23/09/15 Celta Vigo - Barcelona @ 1.53 BV
23/09/15 Las Palmas - Sevilla @ 2.25 BV
23/09/15 GFC Ajaccio - Rennes @ 2.40 WH
23/09/15 Troyes - St Etienne @ 2.38 WH and Freds
24/09/15 Montpellier - Monaco @ 2.60 Freds
25/09/15 Valencia - Granada CF @ 1.50 WH


A couple of teams play twice this week; Valencia and Granada, (also Cologne, Ingolstadt and Reims - none apply here) all play Tuesday and Friday, something to bare in mind.

And another attempt at cherry picking ranking possible best bets.

1 23/09/15 Celta Vigo - Barcelona
2 25/09/15 Valencia - Granada CF
3 23/09/15 GFC Ajaccio - Rennes
4 23/09/15 Fiorentina - Bologna
5 24/09/15 Montpellier - Monaco

J
 
Update the previous attempt at narrowing the field:
1. 19/09/15 Valencia - Betis Drew 0-0
2. 20/09/15 Excelsior - Ajax Won 0-2
3. 20/09/15 St Etienne - Nantes Won 2-0
4. 19/09/15 Wolfsburg - Hertha Berlin Won 2-0
5. 19/09/15 Heracles - PSV Lost 2-1
6. 20/09/15 Monaco - Lorient Lost 2-3
7. 19/09/15 Guingamp - GFC Ajaccio Won 2-1

Update: A small loss of 0.6 pts over 7 bets.
J
 
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Full list with excluded matches due to odds and filtering on . Thought I had posted this.

Average odds are from Bet Explorer.

J
 
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Three excluded games won last evening; the odds were all around 1.25 so little chance of any long term profit unless some consistency can be found.
PSG Ca. 1.20
Bayern Ca. 1.27 and
Atl. Madrid Ca. 1.26
Pre List.png

J
 
Porto will fail to qualify on odds as they are around 1.30. Two matches remain. France Ligue 1 will probably be the first to benefit from the latest form data. It will come as no surprise to note that on new figures Monaco do not qualify as a selection but I will leave this one in and recalculate from the next group of games on the weekend.

Rem_Fix_2015-09-24.png

J
 
Monaco get the win 3-2 and some very useful and much needed points. A 90th minute penalty seals the win, this game beggars belief at times. :)
Full update after tomorrows clash.

J
 
The current state of affairs with Singles Bar selections. Home sides make a profit at odds taken, the away sides performances are lagging a bit this despite averaging slightly higher average odds.

SB_ 2015-09-26.png

The home side strike rates have been very good so far however as with Quick off of the Mark the sample size is very small and confidence and interpretation should be treated with some caution. The odds on Home sides have produced 2.90 points profit from 14 games (0.21 pts/game), only one Home game at Odds Against and that won returning 1.05 pts profit.

In spite of a > 50% Strike Rate at Odds On, the Away Odds have been insufficient to turn a profit so far although a few wins could turn this around.

J
 
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Thanks Tony. Two ways to go with both Singles and QootM a) Accuracy, large sums on confident selects or b) Volume, aiming for large numbers of selections to overcome slightly less acuracy, although there is a third way; c) Accuracy + Volume, although I am limited by both the amount of games I can cover due to constraints of effort and time and the games that the RFO information actually makes available. C) would be nirvana but it's never going to happen. :)

Ranking this week takes: St Etienne> Empoli>Caen. (FWIW). I will update P/L on this asap.


BTW: about 16 qualified today however the odds took all of the other out.
ATB, J
 
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The last two games a bit of a disappointment, St Etienne providing the biggest surprise going down 1-4 at home to Nice. Empoli went out with a bit of a whimper 2-0 at Frosinone last evening, seven yellow cards and a red among those for Empoli.


Singles_2015-09-29.png

Home ties still in profit. Not much of a profit after 17 games but a profit nonetheless without filtering; I have an idea to look at and we will see where that takes the system.


J
 
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