Statting Island
- Thread starter mlmrob
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mlmrob
Sire
Cheers guys
OFF THE GROUND 2.40 DONCASTER
Emma Lavelle bids to win this for a second year running. Her record at Doncaster reads 8-30 which improves to 6-10 in handicap chases. Her record improves again when the horse is in the first three of the betting to 4-4. Off The Ground won a 0-130 over this course and distance without breaking sweat last time. However, the form of his previous race, when a poor third in a 0-125 over 24f looks very good. The second horse was Present View who has since won and finished a close second off 7lbs higher. Another three horses have ran and won. Off The Ground is 15lbs higher than his last run but he looks a most progressive sort.
Kings Grey was second in this event two years ago off 125 and can be opposed off 139. He is 0-8 in races where the average OR is 127 or higher.
Tahiti Pearl was beaten 0.5l by Kings Grey over this course and distance a year ago and is 4lbs worse off today. Four of his five wins have come at Sedgefield. He has never won a race with an average OR of 111 or higher, 0-6, though he has placed three times. The highest average OR of race he has raced in is 127.
Clarragh Native won a couple of runs back off 110 and showed improved form when finishing second off 118 last time. He is up another 2lbs and he could have more to offer. He has done all his winning on right handed tracks, 0-5 going left handed. Todhunter is 2-8 in handicap chases here.
Hazy Tom was well held in a decent race at Newbury last time when he unshipped his rider. He is still 7lbs higher than when he won a 4 runner affair at Bangor three runs back and his last two runs have suggested the handicapper has got him. Emma Lavelle has a good line on him through Easter Meteor.
Arthurs Pass is still 4lbs higher than his win in a three runner race in February. He is now 19lbs higher than when he started the year. All four of his wins have come on right handed tracks, 0-7 going left handed though he has placed.
Nadiya De La Vega was 8/1 fifth favourite for the December Gold Cup this time last year and was racing off 145. She didn’t do much in the Paddy Power and she will be much fitter today. She is off a very handy mark of 138, won off 140 in April. She is 3-4 in small fields and looks to have a lot going for her. Twice she has carried weights 11-9 and 11-0 and both times she was beaten out of sight. She has never carried more than 11-2 to victory. Henderson is 2-19 in handicap chases at Doncaster and that was Wogan. Nine horses have run since March 2010 and all bar one were in single figures odds and all lost.
Conclusion: Nadiya De la Vega would look huge if she returned to form but there are big negatives with her at present. Most of these are run of the mill exposed handicappers who will pick a race or two up in their turn. However, the unexposed Off The Ground holds a similar profile to Easter Meteor and he may well be rated a lot higher when he heads for the spring festivals. He could take a lot of beating here.
OFF THE GROUND 2.40 DONCASTER
Emma Lavelle bids to win this for a second year running. Her record at Doncaster reads 8-30 which improves to 6-10 in handicap chases. Her record improves again when the horse is in the first three of the betting to 4-4. Off The Ground won a 0-130 over this course and distance without breaking sweat last time. However, the form of his previous race, when a poor third in a 0-125 over 24f looks very good. The second horse was Present View who has since won and finished a close second off 7lbs higher. Another three horses have ran and won. Off The Ground is 15lbs higher than his last run but he looks a most progressive sort.
Kings Grey was second in this event two years ago off 125 and can be opposed off 139. He is 0-8 in races where the average OR is 127 or higher.
Tahiti Pearl was beaten 0.5l by Kings Grey over this course and distance a year ago and is 4lbs worse off today. Four of his five wins have come at Sedgefield. He has never won a race with an average OR of 111 or higher, 0-6, though he has placed three times. The highest average OR of race he has raced in is 127.
Clarragh Native won a couple of runs back off 110 and showed improved form when finishing second off 118 last time. He is up another 2lbs and he could have more to offer. He has done all his winning on right handed tracks, 0-5 going left handed. Todhunter is 2-8 in handicap chases here.
Hazy Tom was well held in a decent race at Newbury last time when he unshipped his rider. He is still 7lbs higher than when he won a 4 runner affair at Bangor three runs back and his last two runs have suggested the handicapper has got him. Emma Lavelle has a good line on him through Easter Meteor.
Arthurs Pass is still 4lbs higher than his win in a three runner race in February. He is now 19lbs higher than when he started the year. All four of his wins have come on right handed tracks, 0-7 going left handed though he has placed.
Nadiya De La Vega was 8/1 fifth favourite for the December Gold Cup this time last year and was racing off 145. She didn’t do much in the Paddy Power and she will be much fitter today. She is off a very handy mark of 138, won off 140 in April. She is 3-4 in small fields and looks to have a lot going for her. Twice she has carried weights 11-9 and 11-0 and both times she was beaten out of sight. She has never carried more than 11-2 to victory. Henderson is 2-19 in handicap chases at Doncaster and that was Wogan. Nine horses have run since March 2010 and all bar one were in single figures odds and all lost.
Conclusion: Nadiya De la Vega would look huge if she returned to form but there are big negatives with her at present. Most of these are run of the mill exposed handicappers who will pick a race or two up in their turn. However, the unexposed Off The Ground holds a similar profile to Easter Meteor and he may well be rated a lot higher when he heads for the spring festivals. He could take a lot of beating here.
mlmrob
Sire
Thanks guys.
I GOT POWER 3.10 CATTERICK
Keith Reveley has targeted this Catterick meeting for the last three years as a means to get his Christmas expenses. He has saddled 21 runners with 8 winning. However, that improves dramatically at singles figure odds to 7-10 returning the following figures; 161131112.
He has two runners today, Whichwaytobougie who was green as grass on his debut in a bumper last month and is probably going to go off at double figure odds.
I Got Power runs in the bumper, a race that Reveley won in 2011 and saddled the second last year. I Got Power was second to Secrete Stream in a Kelso bumper in April who run with credit on his hurdling debut and it looks like I Got Power is the one for Reveley today with James Reveley riding.
I GOT POWER 3.10 CATTERICK
Keith Reveley has targeted this Catterick meeting for the last three years as a means to get his Christmas expenses. He has saddled 21 runners with 8 winning. However, that improves dramatically at singles figure odds to 7-10 returning the following figures; 161131112.
He has two runners today, Whichwaytobougie who was green as grass on his debut in a bumper last month and is probably going to go off at double figure odds.
I Got Power runs in the bumper, a race that Reveley won in 2011 and saddled the second last year. I Got Power was second to Secrete Stream in a Kelso bumper in April who run with credit on his hurdling debut and it looks like I Got Power is the one for Reveley today with James Reveley riding.
mlmrob
Sire
Mick Appleby and Andrew Mullen are worth following when they team up at Southwell between November and March, 10-32. However, that improves when the horse in is class 5 or 6 and is in the first four of the betting to 10-22. Their record this season so far reads; 41128131. They team up with Arabian Flight in the 12.30 and Ivy Port in the 1.00.
mlmrob
Sire
ACCORDING TO TREV 12.40 NEWBURY
According To Trev was a far better hurdler than all of these and has an excellent third to Twirling Magnet and Pantxoa in a better race than this two runs back to suggest he can take this today. Nigel Twiston Davies is 3-6 in this race and McCoy is 8-20 for the yard and a rare booking as he hasn’t ridden for NTD since February 2012.
ISHIKAWA 3.10 LINGFIELD
Ishikawa drops in class and races over a course and distance he is 2-3 and was second on the losing start. He was 5ls behind Solar Deity in a 0-100 last time and the form is rock solid. The winner just failed to pick up a 0-105 off 7lbs higher. The second placed in a 0-100 and the sixth has won a 0-95. Ishikawa is 1-3 in 0-80 on the all weather, the race is a 0-85 but in reality it is 0-80. He is 5lbs higher than his winning mark at Wolverhampton in March but has shown he is capable of winning off todays. Burke has won with 3 of his last 5 runners and with Martin Harley booked Ishikawa might take a bit of beating. The ratings suggest he will.
According To Trev was a far better hurdler than all of these and has an excellent third to Twirling Magnet and Pantxoa in a better race than this two runs back to suggest he can take this today. Nigel Twiston Davies is 3-6 in this race and McCoy is 8-20 for the yard and a rare booking as he hasn’t ridden for NTD since February 2012.
ISHIKAWA 3.10 LINGFIELD
Ishikawa drops in class and races over a course and distance he is 2-3 and was second on the losing start. He was 5ls behind Solar Deity in a 0-100 last time and the form is rock solid. The winner just failed to pick up a 0-105 off 7lbs higher. The second placed in a 0-100 and the sixth has won a 0-95. Ishikawa is 1-3 in 0-80 on the all weather, the race is a 0-85 but in reality it is 0-80. He is 5lbs higher than his winning mark at Wolverhampton in March but has shown he is capable of winning off todays. Burke has won with 3 of his last 5 runners and with Martin Harley booked Ishikawa might take a bit of beating. The ratings suggest he will.
mlmrob
Sire
WHAT A GOOD NIGHT 2.55 UTTOXETER
What A Good Night won as he pleased two runs back in a 0-95 at Stratford and the handicapper reacted by hiking him 16lbs. If you took Ryan Hatch’s claim into consideration he was running off a 23lbs higher mark last time when he fell in the race won by King Massini. He probably would have won that race and the fact that King Massini has since won a 0-125 off 7lbs higher and a 0-130 off 13lbs higher suggests What A Good Night is well in here off 107. Ryan Hatch is back on taking 7lbs off so he looks very well handicapped. Nigel Twiston Davies is 15-90 in handicap chases at Uttoxeter which improves to 11-27 when in the first two of the betting. It improves again to 10-21 when in the top five of the weights. 3-4 with those that didn’t finish last time.
Black Is Beautiful should come on for his debut run over fences when beaten 23ls by Herdsman. Twiston Davies saddled the second Tullyraine who was 20ls ahead of Black Is Beautiful so he should have a line on him. Lee won his first handicap chase here for six years at the last meeting and won this seven years ago. However, Black Is Beautiful is yet to open his account but he is 8lbs lower than last time.
Dark Glacier was beaten 3.5ls in a 0-110 last time pulling 6ls clear of a previous winner. He is 2-4 on soft ground but hasn’t won over any further than 22f. He should stay. Peter Bowen won this two years ago with Run To Fly. Dark Glacier was quite useful in his youth for Chris Grant but temperament has got the better of him but if he puts it in he should go well.
Bennys Well is 0-6 in class 4 with just one place and off a mark 8lbs higher than his last win he might find this tough. His chases wins were in races with an average OR of 83 and 89 and this is 97 today.
Plum Pudding ( Non Runner) is 4lbs lower than his last win two years ago. However, his two best recent runs were two seconds off a mark of 99 and that’s probably about where he’s at now. There are a few that like to lead here and he will have company up front but he does have conditions to suit. Three of his four wins have come on stiff tracks so this place may well not suit, beaten 87ls on his only run here.
Rocky Bender is still maiden and has to give weight away all round on his third chase start. His best form is on heavy ground. Liam Treadwell is 6-19 for Venetia here.
Kilcascan won over this course and distance off 90 a year ago but is 0-6 in class 4. He can turn the tables on Bennys Well from their meeting in October but that’s the best he can hope for.
Bishophill Jack has shown ability but he has his own ideas about the game and more often than not he throws in the towel. He is 1-15 in class 4 chases compared to 3-3 in class 5. His win in class 4 came in the stewards room.
Noble Witness won at Towcester May off 107 and that was his first win off a mark higher than 99, 1-21. Three of his four wins have come on right handed tracks and he is 0-4 here. Charlie Pogson is 2-24 in handicap chases here.
Bally Sands won a 0-125 off 102 in March and the closest he has got since is 20ls. He could run well off 103 but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Notabotheroneme is 14lbs wrong.
Conclusion: Though this is over 24f there may well be a bit of pace on with Dark Glacier, Bennys Well, Plum Pudding(non runner) and Noble Witness all liking to lead. It could well be attritional. However, if What A Good Night had stood up at Ludlow he wouldn’t be racing in this race today, he probably has a stone in hand at present and the 5yo can pick this exposed lot off with ease.
What A Good Night won as he pleased two runs back in a 0-95 at Stratford and the handicapper reacted by hiking him 16lbs. If you took Ryan Hatch’s claim into consideration he was running off a 23lbs higher mark last time when he fell in the race won by King Massini. He probably would have won that race and the fact that King Massini has since won a 0-125 off 7lbs higher and a 0-130 off 13lbs higher suggests What A Good Night is well in here off 107. Ryan Hatch is back on taking 7lbs off so he looks very well handicapped. Nigel Twiston Davies is 15-90 in handicap chases at Uttoxeter which improves to 11-27 when in the first two of the betting. It improves again to 10-21 when in the top five of the weights. 3-4 with those that didn’t finish last time.
Black Is Beautiful should come on for his debut run over fences when beaten 23ls by Herdsman. Twiston Davies saddled the second Tullyraine who was 20ls ahead of Black Is Beautiful so he should have a line on him. Lee won his first handicap chase here for six years at the last meeting and won this seven years ago. However, Black Is Beautiful is yet to open his account but he is 8lbs lower than last time.
Dark Glacier was beaten 3.5ls in a 0-110 last time pulling 6ls clear of a previous winner. He is 2-4 on soft ground but hasn’t won over any further than 22f. He should stay. Peter Bowen won this two years ago with Run To Fly. Dark Glacier was quite useful in his youth for Chris Grant but temperament has got the better of him but if he puts it in he should go well.
Bennys Well is 0-6 in class 4 with just one place and off a mark 8lbs higher than his last win he might find this tough. His chases wins were in races with an average OR of 83 and 89 and this is 97 today.
Plum Pudding ( Non Runner) is 4lbs lower than his last win two years ago. However, his two best recent runs were two seconds off a mark of 99 and that’s probably about where he’s at now. There are a few that like to lead here and he will have company up front but he does have conditions to suit. Three of his four wins have come on stiff tracks so this place may well not suit, beaten 87ls on his only run here.
Rocky Bender is still maiden and has to give weight away all round on his third chase start. His best form is on heavy ground. Liam Treadwell is 6-19 for Venetia here.
Kilcascan won over this course and distance off 90 a year ago but is 0-6 in class 4. He can turn the tables on Bennys Well from their meeting in October but that’s the best he can hope for.
Bishophill Jack has shown ability but he has his own ideas about the game and more often than not he throws in the towel. He is 1-15 in class 4 chases compared to 3-3 in class 5. His win in class 4 came in the stewards room.
Noble Witness won at Towcester May off 107 and that was his first win off a mark higher than 99, 1-21. Three of his four wins have come on right handed tracks and he is 0-4 here. Charlie Pogson is 2-24 in handicap chases here.
Bally Sands won a 0-125 off 102 in March and the closest he has got since is 20ls. He could run well off 103 but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Notabotheroneme is 14lbs wrong.
Conclusion: Though this is over 24f there may well be a bit of pace on with Dark Glacier, Bennys Well, Plum Pudding(non runner) and Noble Witness all liking to lead. It could well be attritional. However, if What A Good Night had stood up at Ludlow he wouldn’t be racing in this race today, he probably has a stone in hand at present and the 5yo can pick this exposed lot off with ease.
ArkRoyal
Administrator
Although you didn't get the result you wanted it was still a good read Rob
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers guys.
I had Dark Glacier top rated but sometimes knowledge is not king. I knew of this horse when he was with Chris Grant and I was told his head had gone. Peter Bowen has done a good job with him.
Anyway, we move on.
CONSIGLIERE 1.50 ASCOT (Each Way)
Consigliere could surprise here. Here is back to a mark of 139, 1lb higher than his win at Ayr in January and back in the class where he has an exceptional record. He is 4-5 in class 3 chases. He is 5-8 on soft ground. That improves to 3-3 when combined. Six of his seven wins have come when in the top two of the weights, 6-18, but that improves to 4-5 when in class 3.
I had Dark Glacier top rated but sometimes knowledge is not king. I knew of this horse when he was with Chris Grant and I was told his head had gone. Peter Bowen has done a good job with him.
Anyway, we move on.
CONSIGLIERE 1.50 ASCOT (Each Way)
Consigliere could surprise here. Here is back to a mark of 139, 1lb higher than his win at Ayr in January and back in the class where he has an exceptional record. He is 4-5 in class 3 chases. He is 5-8 on soft ground. That improves to 3-3 when combined. Six of his seven wins have come when in the top two of the weights, 6-18, but that improves to 4-5 when in class 3.
mlmrob
Sire
FESTIVE FELON 1.05 NAVAN
Festive Felon ran in what looked an ordinary bumper when he was last seen. However, time has shown his fifth behind The Tullow Tank to be smart form. That horse won the Grade 1 Royal Bond the other day. The third was Timesremembered who won the Grade 2 Persian War hurdle and was second the Grade 2 Hyde Hurdle. The second and fourth have since won races.
Don Poli is sure to be a warm favourite but Festive Felon warrants support at his price.
Festive Felon ran in what looked an ordinary bumper when he was last seen. However, time has shown his fifth behind The Tullow Tank to be smart form. That horse won the Grade 1 Royal Bond the other day. The third was Timesremembered who won the Grade 2 Persian War hurdle and was second the Grade 2 Hyde Hurdle. The second and fourth have since won races.
Don Poli is sure to be a warm favourite but Festive Felon warrants support at his price.
Chesham
Sire
Hi Rob
Timeform mention Consigliere in his LTO race that he may be worth trying in the Wincanton Handicap in early January, where last year he was fav and finished 2nd (21f), and in 2012 won the race, so worth watching to see how he performs today with regards to his next placement.
Good Luck
Chesham
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