Statting Island
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mlmrob
Sire
DUSKY BOB 2.40 CARLISLE
Today might be the day to catch Dusky Bob. He has won after a break before and since he has been with Brian Ellison he has improved some 22lbs. The key is undulating tracks from which four of his five wins have been achieved. His record under Ellison’s care on undulating tracks reads 3-7 with a further two places. That improves to 3-4 when ridden by Danny Cook, 3-3 at single figure odds. Dusky Bob has won over 26f here in heavy ground so he will stay this test. He has to defy a career high mark but the cheekpieces appear to have improved him again. There are enough negatives about his rivals to suggest he is worthy of support today.
The McCoy/O Neill bandwagon steams into Carlisle and with their last four horses all winning, Full Of Joy is sure to be popular. Full Of Joy is 0-6 going right handed though he has won at figure of eight Fontwell. I have doubts whether he will stay this 24.5f. He has won over 24f at Bangor but I feel this may well be beyond him.
My Boy Paddy has run here three times and lost all three. He has run in class 3 four times and lost all four and he has never won a race outside a month of his last run, 0-8. He made his seasonal debut on this track last season and finished fifth beaten 23ls.
Chac Du Cadran will probably need this, 0-3 after a break of 60 days or more. It is three years since Chris Bealby had one ready first time out in the autumn, 0-23. He had a gap of two years before that winner too so it is likely Chac Du Cadran will need this.
Papamoa is another who will be better for the run today. He is 0-6 after a breakoff 120 days or more. He is 4lbs lower than when presented with a race at Newcastle. Zaru was 16ls clear when falling at the last, The Friary fell at the second last in that race otherwise Papamoa would have finished third. His record on his seasonal debut is 546.
Incentivise has won on his seasonal debut twice in the last three years. He is 6lbs higher than his last win and his record off marks of 114 or above reads 0-13, 0-5 off marks 114-119.
Ultra De Chatelet was made favourite last time at Hexham but found the 20f a bit quick for him. The step up the 24f should suit as Network’s progeny do well at this distance. He is a half brother to Quinte De Chatelet whose best distance was 20f-22f and the race he won at Pau was over 20f. He could run well.
Mohi Rahrere is 0-6 going right handed and has avoided stiff tracks. He was Barry Leavy’s last winner in April and he has never had a horse placed from five runners at Carlisle. However, Mohi Rahrere has won when fresh but he is going the wrong way round.
Sun Cloud has his second chase after unseating on his chasing debut. He is 0-7 going right handed.
Conclusion: A lot of these are going to need the run today and the likely jolly, Full Of Joy jumped woefully last time, out to the left sometimes which will lose lengths round here. Dusky Bob comes from a yard that has a 20% strike rate in handicap chases, has won on his seasonal debut and has his ideal conditions.
Today might be the day to catch Dusky Bob. He has won after a break before and since he has been with Brian Ellison he has improved some 22lbs. The key is undulating tracks from which four of his five wins have been achieved. His record under Ellison’s care on undulating tracks reads 3-7 with a further two places. That improves to 3-4 when ridden by Danny Cook, 3-3 at single figure odds. Dusky Bob has won over 26f here in heavy ground so he will stay this test. He has to defy a career high mark but the cheekpieces appear to have improved him again. There are enough negatives about his rivals to suggest he is worthy of support today.
The McCoy/O Neill bandwagon steams into Carlisle and with their last four horses all winning, Full Of Joy is sure to be popular. Full Of Joy is 0-6 going right handed though he has won at figure of eight Fontwell. I have doubts whether he will stay this 24.5f. He has won over 24f at Bangor but I feel this may well be beyond him.
My Boy Paddy has run here three times and lost all three. He has run in class 3 four times and lost all four and he has never won a race outside a month of his last run, 0-8. He made his seasonal debut on this track last season and finished fifth beaten 23ls.
Chac Du Cadran will probably need this, 0-3 after a break of 60 days or more. It is three years since Chris Bealby had one ready first time out in the autumn, 0-23. He had a gap of two years before that winner too so it is likely Chac Du Cadran will need this.
Papamoa is another who will be better for the run today. He is 0-6 after a breakoff 120 days or more. He is 4lbs lower than when presented with a race at Newcastle. Zaru was 16ls clear when falling at the last, The Friary fell at the second last in that race otherwise Papamoa would have finished third. His record on his seasonal debut is 546.
Incentivise has won on his seasonal debut twice in the last three years. He is 6lbs higher than his last win and his record off marks of 114 or above reads 0-13, 0-5 off marks 114-119.
Ultra De Chatelet was made favourite last time at Hexham but found the 20f a bit quick for him. The step up the 24f should suit as Network’s progeny do well at this distance. He is a half brother to Quinte De Chatelet whose best distance was 20f-22f and the race he won at Pau was over 20f. He could run well.
Mohi Rahrere is 0-6 going right handed and has avoided stiff tracks. He was Barry Leavy’s last winner in April and he has never had a horse placed from five runners at Carlisle. However, Mohi Rahrere has won when fresh but he is going the wrong way round.
Sun Cloud has his second chase after unseating on his chasing debut. He is 0-7 going right handed.
Conclusion: A lot of these are going to need the run today and the likely jolly, Full Of Joy jumped woefully last time, out to the left sometimes which will lose lengths round here. Dusky Bob comes from a yard that has a 20% strike rate in handicap chases, has won on his seasonal debut and has his ideal conditions.
mlmrob
Sire
KIELTYS FOLLY 5.30 KEMPTON (EACH WAY)
Kieltys Folly is a dodgepot but this race is full of them. He always travels first class but seldom delivers. However, there are some strong reasons to support him today. Jim Crowley is back on board after steering him into the winners’ enclosure two runs back. He is 3-11 over this course and distance which improves to 3-8 when racing in 0-60. He beat Sonnetation 1l two runs back and is 2lbs worse off tonight but he had Sonnetation at arms length. The draw favours Kieltys Folly tonight, it didn’t two runs back. The third that day was I’m Harry who has gone on to beat Legal Legacy and on a line through I’m Harry, Legal Legacy can’t beat Kieltys Folly. Fifth home was Arabian Flight who went on to beat Hail Promenader and a line through Arabian Flight suggests Hail Promenader can’t beat Kieltys Folly.
Hail Promenader is 0-10 going right handed, 0-4 here.
Minimee is 0-4 going right handed, 0-3 here never placing.
Legal Legacy is 0-11 at Kempton.
Cativo Cavellino is 0-4, never placed, when returning after a break of 120 days or more.
Minstrel Lad is 0-7 here.
Lightning Spirit is 4lbs better off for 4ls from the race two runs back but he has a terrible draw.
Rock Anthem is 0-16 at Kempton.
Percythepinto is 0-5 at Kempton, never placed.
Last Supper is a 13 race maiden whose best form is on soft ground.
Actonetaketwo is 0-3 at Kempton and 0-3 over 8f and is still 5lbs above the mark she won her only race off.
Stoneacre Oskar has never placed in 5 races on the all weather. He was this yard’s last winner on August 3rd. Currently on a losing run of 34.
Conclusion: It is interesting that Brian Baugh has secured the services of Jim Crowley as he won Kieltys Folly two runs back. The horse has won off 57 so 53 shouldn’t be a problem. He is not one to follow over a cliff but the 8/1 available this morning makes him an inviting each way shout. Sonnetation looks the main danger.
Kieltys Folly is a dodgepot but this race is full of them. He always travels first class but seldom delivers. However, there are some strong reasons to support him today. Jim Crowley is back on board after steering him into the winners’ enclosure two runs back. He is 3-11 over this course and distance which improves to 3-8 when racing in 0-60. He beat Sonnetation 1l two runs back and is 2lbs worse off tonight but he had Sonnetation at arms length. The draw favours Kieltys Folly tonight, it didn’t two runs back. The third that day was I’m Harry who has gone on to beat Legal Legacy and on a line through I’m Harry, Legal Legacy can’t beat Kieltys Folly. Fifth home was Arabian Flight who went on to beat Hail Promenader and a line through Arabian Flight suggests Hail Promenader can’t beat Kieltys Folly.
Hail Promenader is 0-10 going right handed, 0-4 here.
Minimee is 0-4 going right handed, 0-3 here never placing.
Legal Legacy is 0-11 at Kempton.
Cativo Cavellino is 0-4, never placed, when returning after a break of 120 days or more.
Minstrel Lad is 0-7 here.
Lightning Spirit is 4lbs better off for 4ls from the race two runs back but he has a terrible draw.
Rock Anthem is 0-16 at Kempton.
Percythepinto is 0-5 at Kempton, never placed.
Last Supper is a 13 race maiden whose best form is on soft ground.
Actonetaketwo is 0-3 at Kempton and 0-3 over 8f and is still 5lbs above the mark she won her only race off.
Stoneacre Oskar has never placed in 5 races on the all weather. He was this yard’s last winner on August 3rd. Currently on a losing run of 34.
Conclusion: It is interesting that Brian Baugh has secured the services of Jim Crowley as he won Kieltys Folly two runs back. The horse has won off 57 so 53 shouldn’t be a problem. He is not one to follow over a cliff but the 8/1 available this morning makes him an inviting each way shout. Sonnetation looks the main danger.
mlmrob
Sire
BYRNE GROUP HANDICAP CHASE 2.10 ASCOT
This race has been going seven years and in six of those it was won by a second season chaser.
The only horse to win outside that range was a 13yo.
The race has also been a good race for the market leaders. 5-7 were in the first three in the betting whilst 6-7 were in the first six of the betting.
From just fifteen runners with an official rating of 125-130, five horses have won. The other winners were rated 140 and 145.
The current first six in the betting are Fairy Rath, Greywell Boy, King Edmund, Ulck Du Lin, Avoca Promise, My Brother Sylvest and Gus Macrae.
Notardfbad and Filbert could feasibly end up in the first six of the betting.
King Edmund isn’t a second season chaser and has finished 4th and 2nd in previous runnings of this race.
Gus Macrae won this last year as a second season chaser.
Notarfbad is in his first season as a chaser.
Filbert, Avoca Promise and Greywell Boy are the three horses in the official rating range.
Every winner had run in a class 2, 3, or 4 race last time out. 15 had run in Pattern Company and everyone failed in this race.
For me I can’t split Avoca Promise and Greywell Boy and they will do for me
This race has been going seven years and in six of those it was won by a second season chaser.
The only horse to win outside that range was a 13yo.
The race has also been a good race for the market leaders. 5-7 were in the first three in the betting whilst 6-7 were in the first six of the betting.
From just fifteen runners with an official rating of 125-130, five horses have won. The other winners were rated 140 and 145.
The current first six in the betting are Fairy Rath, Greywell Boy, King Edmund, Ulck Du Lin, Avoca Promise, My Brother Sylvest and Gus Macrae.
Notardfbad and Filbert could feasibly end up in the first six of the betting.
King Edmund isn’t a second season chaser and has finished 4th and 2nd in previous runnings of this race.
Gus Macrae won this last year as a second season chaser.
Notarfbad is in his first season as a chaser.
Filbert, Avoca Promise and Greywell Boy are the three horses in the official rating range.
Every winner had run in a class 2, 3, or 4 race last time out. 15 had run in Pattern Company and everyone failed in this race.
For me I can’t split Avoca Promise and Greywell Boy and they will do for me
formtheory
Stallion
Ha ha! Nice to see we have the same horse!
Always makes me feel better!
Although I have gone Greywell boy win, Gus Macrae place at 5.0 which I thought was a decent place price.
Always makes me feel better!
Although I have gone Greywell boy win, Gus Macrae place at 5.0 which I thought was a decent place price.
mlmrob
Sire
MODIFY 2.40 SOUTHWELL
Modify has been running in better class races than this without much success but this daughter of New Approach will be seen in better light on this surface. Modify was stone cold last, last time but she was well out of her depth. She has a piece of form when beaten just 9ls to Inyordreams at Thirsk in August which gives her a big chance here. The winner subsequently run with credit in a class 2 nursery off 76 and was favourite for a class 5 nursery off 75. The second was The Hooded Claw and he was beaten 3ls in the listed 2yo Trophy at Redcar and won his maiden last week. Modify’s dam has an excellent record at Southwell with her offspring, 6-10. This is the seventh offspring of Hill Welcome Bryan Smart has trained and he managed to get a win with all the others.
Pennine Warrior was made second favourite for a nursery at Ayr and finished fifth beaten 11.5ls last time. However, the form of his race behind Inyordreams with Modify behind would make him of great interest here as he finished some 6.5ls ahead of Modify. Off the same weight he should confirm the placing’s but this is a different test. He is by Lucky Story so he should handle the fibresand. However, his dam is Discoed and five of her six offspring have failed to win a race. The winner was Je Suis Un Rockstar who won twice at Southwell. Scott Dixon is 2-72 with 2yos, 0-19 in 2013. One of his winners was at Southwell.
Motamayezah was last to Kingman on her racecourse debut and hasn’t been seen since. The first two look a bit special but the rest are a much of a muchness. She is by Tamayuz who is 0-4 here and 3-88 overall with his offspring on the all weather.
Kinkoheyo is the second Smart entry. She is a daughter of Indesatchel who is 0-21 with his offspring here. 8-193 on all artificial surfaces.
Misstemper is a daughter of Diamond Green who is 0-25 here with his progeny.
Biscuiteer is the second Dixon runner and has been well beaten in her three races to date. She is by Byron so she should handle the surface. She is a half sister to Threes Grand who was one of Dixon’s two 2yo winners. She might be worth noting for a handicap round here this winter.
Doncaster Belle was beaten 18ls in a nursery a few days ago and hasn’t been sighted in ten races now. She is a daughter of Ad Valorem, 1-25 here and only 4-72 with his offspring over 5f.
Molly Malone has been tailed off in her two races to date and expect the same today. The daughter of Byron will be another who will be better off in handicaps.
Conclusion: Pennine Warrior is very short for what he has achieved. His second to Yajamila over 6f here proved he should handle the surface. He is by Lucky Story who is 6-20 over 5f here but Scott Dixon has an awful record with 2yos though he is 4-4 with all horses that start 6/4 or less. Bryan Smart knows the family of Modify well and she should have matured a bit since being beat by Pennine Warrior. Smart has had two runners in 2yo maidens at Southwell this year and has saddled a winner and a second. Graham Lee rode the winner. Lee is 3-9 for Smart this year, 3-3 when the horse is priced at single figure odds. It looks between the two of them but preference is for Modify.
Modify has been running in better class races than this without much success but this daughter of New Approach will be seen in better light on this surface. Modify was stone cold last, last time but she was well out of her depth. She has a piece of form when beaten just 9ls to Inyordreams at Thirsk in August which gives her a big chance here. The winner subsequently run with credit in a class 2 nursery off 76 and was favourite for a class 5 nursery off 75. The second was The Hooded Claw and he was beaten 3ls in the listed 2yo Trophy at Redcar and won his maiden last week. Modify’s dam has an excellent record at Southwell with her offspring, 6-10. This is the seventh offspring of Hill Welcome Bryan Smart has trained and he managed to get a win with all the others.
Pennine Warrior was made second favourite for a nursery at Ayr and finished fifth beaten 11.5ls last time. However, the form of his race behind Inyordreams with Modify behind would make him of great interest here as he finished some 6.5ls ahead of Modify. Off the same weight he should confirm the placing’s but this is a different test. He is by Lucky Story so he should handle the fibresand. However, his dam is Discoed and five of her six offspring have failed to win a race. The winner was Je Suis Un Rockstar who won twice at Southwell. Scott Dixon is 2-72 with 2yos, 0-19 in 2013. One of his winners was at Southwell.
Motamayezah was last to Kingman on her racecourse debut and hasn’t been seen since. The first two look a bit special but the rest are a much of a muchness. She is by Tamayuz who is 0-4 here and 3-88 overall with his offspring on the all weather.
Kinkoheyo is the second Smart entry. She is a daughter of Indesatchel who is 0-21 with his offspring here. 8-193 on all artificial surfaces.
Misstemper is a daughter of Diamond Green who is 0-25 here with his progeny.
Biscuiteer is the second Dixon runner and has been well beaten in her three races to date. She is by Byron so she should handle the surface. She is a half sister to Threes Grand who was one of Dixon’s two 2yo winners. She might be worth noting for a handicap round here this winter.
Doncaster Belle was beaten 18ls in a nursery a few days ago and hasn’t been sighted in ten races now. She is a daughter of Ad Valorem, 1-25 here and only 4-72 with his offspring over 5f.
Molly Malone has been tailed off in her two races to date and expect the same today. The daughter of Byron will be another who will be better off in handicaps.
Conclusion: Pennine Warrior is very short for what he has achieved. His second to Yajamila over 6f here proved he should handle the surface. He is by Lucky Story who is 6-20 over 5f here but Scott Dixon has an awful record with 2yos though he is 4-4 with all horses that start 6/4 or less. Bryan Smart knows the family of Modify well and she should have matured a bit since being beat by Pennine Warrior. Smart has had two runners in 2yo maidens at Southwell this year and has saddled a winner and a second. Graham Lee rode the winner. Lee is 3-9 for Smart this year, 3-3 when the horse is priced at single figure odds. It looks between the two of them but preference is for Modify.
mlmrob
Sire
Brian Ellison has a brilliant record with handicap chasers that he has acquired from other yards. Their record on their debut for him reads 1221F1.
INOOGOO 1.40 SOUTHWELL
Inoogoo was beaten 5ls by Unioniste at Aintree a year ago. That horse went on to win a Grade 3 before finishing fourth in the RSA and started this season with a third in the Charlie Hall. Inoogoo was apparently suffering from a back problem last season and if Ellison has got this sorted he could be very well handicapped.
PRESENTED 3.55 HEXHAM
Presented is the second Ellison runner in a handicap chase that he has acquired from another yard.
Presented looks very well handicapped for his debut. He was beaten 1l in a novice chase a year ago behind Bendant and Material Boy. Bendant went on to win off 102 and then finish second off 112. The second went on to win off 101 whilst the fourth has since won off 100 and 107. He has won a point to point and this looks a good opportunity.
INOOGOO 1.40 SOUTHWELL
Inoogoo was beaten 5ls by Unioniste at Aintree a year ago. That horse went on to win a Grade 3 before finishing fourth in the RSA and started this season with a third in the Charlie Hall. Inoogoo was apparently suffering from a back problem last season and if Ellison has got this sorted he could be very well handicapped.
PRESENTED 3.55 HEXHAM
Presented is the second Ellison runner in a handicap chase that he has acquired from another yard.
Presented looks very well handicapped for his debut. He was beaten 1l in a novice chase a year ago behind Bendant and Material Boy. Bendant went on to win off 102 and then finish second off 112. The second went on to win off 101 whilst the fourth has since won off 100 and 107. He has won a point to point and this looks a good opportunity.
mlmrob
Sire
HITCHENS 3.10 LINGFIELD
Hitchens won this race three years ago and arrives here after an excusable run in the Bengough at Ascot. He is 0-4 on good to soft and the run is best forgotten. He had previously been beat just over a length by Russian Soul in a Group 3 at the Curragh again on ground a little too slow for him. That looks solid form with the fifth Balmont Mast winning a listed race. Behind him was Maarek who has since won a Group3. Hitchens is 10-40 over 6f which improves to 3-9 in listed company over that distance. His record reads; 215431415. However, that improves again on good, good to firm or standard to 3-7. He beat Ballista in the Queensferry at Chester in August and is 1lb worse off for beaten that rival 1.5ls. Hitchens tracked him that day and took control close home.
Ballista won this race last year but he had a soft lead, something he won’t get today. He should run well but the pace battle may not leave anything left for the late challenges.
Haweyethenoo will be finishing with a rattle but he is 0-4 going round a left hand bend and 0-3 on polytrack.
Hoodna has a lot on for a 3yo. Thirteen have tried and all have failed in this race. She gets 9lbs from Hitchens but this is big step up in grade. Sixteen fillies have tried to win this race and only one has succeeded and that was the David Barron trained Jaconet.
Lancelot Du Lac is a 3yo. He gets 4lbs from Hitchens but is 10lbs inferior on official figures. He is another stepping up in grade.
Take Cover is rated 10lbs inferior to Hitchens but only gets 4lbs. He will be involved in a speed battle.
Tiddliwinks is 5-9 on the all weather and has his perfect conditions. He is 0-7, never placed after a break of 49 days or more. He struggled in a conditions race last time, a race he should have done better in and if he is over what was troubling him he could run well.
Valbchek has run in listed and group 3 company four times and unplaced in them all.
Zanetto is a 3yo who is 0-3 after a break of a month or more.
Tangerine Trees and Fratellino both like to force the pace but neither should trouble the judge. Tangerine Trees hasn’t won in this company for two years and Fratellino is 0-18 over 6f.
Conclusion: This will be set up by Fratellino, Tangerine Trees, Ballista and Take Cover. Hitchens should be able to keep tabs on them and pick them off in the straight. The fact that David Barron is 2-3 in this race would suggest that this is a target for Hitchens.
Hitchens won this race three years ago and arrives here after an excusable run in the Bengough at Ascot. He is 0-4 on good to soft and the run is best forgotten. He had previously been beat just over a length by Russian Soul in a Group 3 at the Curragh again on ground a little too slow for him. That looks solid form with the fifth Balmont Mast winning a listed race. Behind him was Maarek who has since won a Group3. Hitchens is 10-40 over 6f which improves to 3-9 in listed company over that distance. His record reads; 215431415. However, that improves again on good, good to firm or standard to 3-7. He beat Ballista in the Queensferry at Chester in August and is 1lb worse off for beaten that rival 1.5ls. Hitchens tracked him that day and took control close home.
Ballista won this race last year but he had a soft lead, something he won’t get today. He should run well but the pace battle may not leave anything left for the late challenges.
Haweyethenoo will be finishing with a rattle but he is 0-4 going round a left hand bend and 0-3 on polytrack.
Hoodna has a lot on for a 3yo. Thirteen have tried and all have failed in this race. She gets 9lbs from Hitchens but this is big step up in grade. Sixteen fillies have tried to win this race and only one has succeeded and that was the David Barron trained Jaconet.
Lancelot Du Lac is a 3yo. He gets 4lbs from Hitchens but is 10lbs inferior on official figures. He is another stepping up in grade.
Take Cover is rated 10lbs inferior to Hitchens but only gets 4lbs. He will be involved in a speed battle.
Tiddliwinks is 5-9 on the all weather and has his perfect conditions. He is 0-7, never placed after a break of 49 days or more. He struggled in a conditions race last time, a race he should have done better in and if he is over what was troubling him he could run well.
Valbchek has run in listed and group 3 company four times and unplaced in them all.
Zanetto is a 3yo who is 0-3 after a break of a month or more.
Tangerine Trees and Fratellino both like to force the pace but neither should trouble the judge. Tangerine Trees hasn’t won in this company for two years and Fratellino is 0-18 over 6f.
Conclusion: This will be set up by Fratellino, Tangerine Trees, Ballista and Take Cover. Hitchens should be able to keep tabs on them and pick them off in the straight. The fact that David Barron is 2-3 in this race would suggest that this is a target for Hitchens.
mlmrob
Sire
GROUSE LODGE 2.05 WETHERBY
The last 10 runnings of this race have gone to an Irish Bred horse with just 1-3 wins over the bigger obstacles. Grouse Lodge and Denali Highway are the only two qualifiers this year. Caroline Bailey hasn’t had a winner since April, 0-54 so it may well be best left to Grouse Lodge who is 5-7 in fields of 7 runners or less
The last 10 runnings of this race have gone to an Irish Bred horse with just 1-3 wins over the bigger obstacles. Grouse Lodge and Denali Highway are the only two qualifiers this year. Caroline Bailey hasn’t had a winner since April, 0-54 so it may well be best left to Grouse Lodge who is 5-7 in fields of 7 runners or less
mlmrob
Sire
DRUMSHAMBO 3.15 ASCOT
Five of the previous seven winners of this race came from either the Open meeting at Cheltenham or the previous Ascot meeting.
Six of the seven winners of this event had won a race over the larger obstacles over this distance. Every winner had won a steeplechase over 20.5f or 21f
Five of the seven winners had an official rating of 142 or higher. Every winner was rated 136or higher.
Drumshambo scores on all three trends here and though he has a career high mark, this is likely to be his last opportunity in this grade. He is 8-20 over 16f-17f and 6-11 in fields of 7 or less runners. Combine the two criteria and his record reads 6-8 with two seconds. He is tactically adept and he will take a lot of beating today.
Five of the previous seven winners of this race came from either the Open meeting at Cheltenham or the previous Ascot meeting.
Six of the seven winners of this event had won a race over the larger obstacles over this distance. Every winner had won a steeplechase over 20.5f or 21f
Five of the seven winners had an official rating of 142 or higher. Every winner was rated 136or higher.
Drumshambo scores on all three trends here and though he has a career high mark, this is likely to be his last opportunity in this grade. He is 8-20 over 16f-17f and 6-11 in fields of 7 or less runners. Combine the two criteria and his record reads 6-8 with two seconds. He is tactically adept and he will take a lot of beating today.
hayzee
Gelding
DRUMSHAMBO 3.15 ASCOT
hope this goes in Rob,it ticked most of the boxes for me,and was going to be a SatPat pick,but what has put me off is the price,easy to back and lay at 7/2,would have thought in a 7 runner that it would have been shorter and seems like a bookies come on price,are you being swerved,yes for me,but some may have noticed,I've been wrong before
G/L all who are on it
hope this goes in Rob,it ticked most of the boxes for me,and was going to be a SatPat pick,but what has put me off is the price,easy to back and lay at 7/2,would have thought in a 7 runner that it would have been shorter and seems like a bookies come on price,are you being swerved,yes for me,but some may have noticed,I've been wrong before
G/L all who are on it
mlmrob
Sire
Nice to hear from you again Mick.
AMIR PASHA 2.20 SEDGEFIELD
Amir Pasha won a 0-100 off 90 two weeks ago round here has to defy an 8lbs penalty in a similar race. He has won off 100 twice and he has won three of his last six races in 0-100. Jason Maguire keeps the ride.
High Hoylander has been off with a tendon problem and though he has been ready to run a few times, he has had minor setbacks that have curtailed those plans. He is yet to win in 15 attempts though he was beaten a length in a 0-120 off 107 two years ago and if he is anywhere near that he will take a deal of beating.
Pindar makes his debut for Joanne Foster. He won a 0-90 at Worcester in the summer for Neil Mulholland and is 8lbs higher in a tougher race. Six months and 22 runners have passed since Joanne trained a winner and she is 1-52 with horses acquired from other yards when making their debut for her.
Queen Of Epirus was fourth to Amir Pasha last time beaten just under 8ls and is 8lbs better off today. They should finish closer but Queen Of Epirus had her own way up front then and with Pindar in the race she isn’t going to get a soft lead. She is yet to win under any rules, 0-13. Brian Rothwell is 2-86 in 2013 and the wins came from one horse.
Ancient Times is still 8lbs higher than his win in February and is 0-5 off marks 78-85. He is 0-6 never placed over 17f. Both his wins have come over 20f.
Kathlatino is the second Hammond horse. She was 30ls behind Amir Pasha two weeks ago. She has just had five outings over timber so she has room to improve but she is 0-12 on good to soft or slower.
Mrs Grass has yet to win in seven attempts and her 18ls third last time was her best effort yet. She was well ahead of Ancient Times. She comes from a yard whose last winner was in March 2012though Jonathan Haynes has only had 35 runners in that time. If she continues to progress she may well run into a place.
Rosquero has shown nothing, pulling up on his last two outings. It is his handicap debut so some improvement should be expected but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Conclusion: If High Hoylander is fit and ready he may well take a bit of beating. However, he has been off a long long time and connections will surely want him home safe and sound above anything else. Amir Pasha is 8lbs higher than his last win but this looks easier. Maguire is 2-5 at Sedgefield for Hammond.
MYSTICAL DREAMER 3.20 SEDGEFIELD
Ronald O Leary does really well in National Hunt Flat Races in the UK with horses making their debut, 5-16. That improves to 5-13 when in the first three of the betting and 4-8 when favourite. However, when the horse is a 4yo his record reads 4-10 overall, 4-9 from the first three in the betting and 4-5 when favourite. Mystical Dreamer is entered in a bumper on Thursday at Uttoxeter.
There is a live danger in Carrybridge who comes from a yard that is 4-6 in bumpers at Sedgefield. However, the mare is a daughter of Black Gayle who is yet to foal a winner under rules from 5 horses losing 44 races.
Mister Jones runs in the colours of Mister McGoldrick and if he wins 15 races for connections I am pretty sure they’ll be well pleased. Mister Jones won his bumper at Hexham easily enough though 8 horses have lost 13 races from that race and although Callum Bewley’s claim negates the penalty, Sue Smith’s record with bumpers here reads 3-28. He is in at Doncaster on Friday.
AMIR PASHA 2.20 SEDGEFIELD
Amir Pasha won a 0-100 off 90 two weeks ago round here has to defy an 8lbs penalty in a similar race. He has won off 100 twice and he has won three of his last six races in 0-100. Jason Maguire keeps the ride.
High Hoylander has been off with a tendon problem and though he has been ready to run a few times, he has had minor setbacks that have curtailed those plans. He is yet to win in 15 attempts though he was beaten a length in a 0-120 off 107 two years ago and if he is anywhere near that he will take a deal of beating.
Pindar makes his debut for Joanne Foster. He won a 0-90 at Worcester in the summer for Neil Mulholland and is 8lbs higher in a tougher race. Six months and 22 runners have passed since Joanne trained a winner and she is 1-52 with horses acquired from other yards when making their debut for her.
Queen Of Epirus was fourth to Amir Pasha last time beaten just under 8ls and is 8lbs better off today. They should finish closer but Queen Of Epirus had her own way up front then and with Pindar in the race she isn’t going to get a soft lead. She is yet to win under any rules, 0-13. Brian Rothwell is 2-86 in 2013 and the wins came from one horse.
Ancient Times is still 8lbs higher than his win in February and is 0-5 off marks 78-85. He is 0-6 never placed over 17f. Both his wins have come over 20f.
Kathlatino is the second Hammond horse. She was 30ls behind Amir Pasha two weeks ago. She has just had five outings over timber so she has room to improve but she is 0-12 on good to soft or slower.
Mrs Grass has yet to win in seven attempts and her 18ls third last time was her best effort yet. She was well ahead of Ancient Times. She comes from a yard whose last winner was in March 2012though Jonathan Haynes has only had 35 runners in that time. If she continues to progress she may well run into a place.
Rosquero has shown nothing, pulling up on his last two outings. It is his handicap debut so some improvement should be expected but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Conclusion: If High Hoylander is fit and ready he may well take a bit of beating. However, he has been off a long long time and connections will surely want him home safe and sound above anything else. Amir Pasha is 8lbs higher than his last win but this looks easier. Maguire is 2-5 at Sedgefield for Hammond.
MYSTICAL DREAMER 3.20 SEDGEFIELD
Ronald O Leary does really well in National Hunt Flat Races in the UK with horses making their debut, 5-16. That improves to 5-13 when in the first three of the betting and 4-8 when favourite. However, when the horse is a 4yo his record reads 4-10 overall, 4-9 from the first three in the betting and 4-5 when favourite. Mystical Dreamer is entered in a bumper on Thursday at Uttoxeter.
There is a live danger in Carrybridge who comes from a yard that is 4-6 in bumpers at Sedgefield. However, the mare is a daughter of Black Gayle who is yet to foal a winner under rules from 5 horses losing 44 races.
Mister Jones runs in the colours of Mister McGoldrick and if he wins 15 races for connections I am pretty sure they’ll be well pleased. Mister Jones won his bumper at Hexham easily enough though 8 horses have lost 13 races from that race and although Callum Bewley’s claim negates the penalty, Sue Smith’s record with bumpers here reads 3-28. He is in at Doncaster on Friday.
