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Statting Island

As you probably know,my guesstimate of the 'unknown variables' in any race,at any time is 20%,including hidden agendas with trainers and jocks,drugs included...being hampered/no clear run,sudden changes in going,fallers,an unforgiving OR handicapper, etc; as an example of what we're up against as punters.
As we know,each and every race is a unique event,but with the above in mind,may I just say that I think your approach and analysis of a race is brilliant,and given the amount of info we have at hand,(if like yourself we look deep enough :)) is about as good as it gets,thanks for sharing :drinks:
 
SHADOWTIME 4.00 BEVERLEY

Shadowtime is 6-21 at Beverley and 5-15 over this distance with a further five placed.
That record improves when he's racing on good to firm or quicker to 5-11. 5-9 when drawn in stalls 6 or lower.
Shadowtime bumped into Frontier Fighter last time who has franked the form by finishing second off 6lbs higher. He produced a speed figure of 80 that day so this mark of 79 should be well within his compass.

Bling King has his third start for Geoff Harker. Rated in the 90s two years ago, he clearly isn't the same horse after his year in France. His third to Two For Two last time looks strong form with the winner winning again off 5lbs higher and then placing in a class 2 off 99, a stone higher. He is very well handicapped.

Seattle Drive has his fourth start for Brian Ellison.He is 0-8 on good to soft or quicker and 0-7 over 8-8.5f. He has never placed in four races with 9 or less runners.

Toto Skyllachy won this last year off 80 and bids to follow up off 5lbs higher.Marks beyond 80 have been difficult for him as his record off marks 81-85 reads 0-14.

Al Muheer has conditions to suit and is 1-1 at Beverley. He has had 29 races under the care of Ruth Carr and not managed to win off a mark above 80. He won his last race a year ago at Thirsk off 80 and was raised 10lbs for that. The handicapper has been slow to relent and is now down to 83 but the losing run is 16.

Gloriam has his third race for Ruth Carr. He has never run on any ground faster than good. He should handle it being by War Chant but War Chant's progeny do not like right handed tracks, 9-166 and they are 0-7 at Beverley.

Lady Macduff hasn't placed in three races on good to firm.She is well handicapped on her win at Haydock last year but she has looked out of sorts this season. She is by Iffraaj whose progeny are 0-26 at Beverley.

Conclusion; Bling King is so well handicapped that he if has retained a little bit of his 2yo form he would go very close. However, that is a big if as the race he won in France was a poor affair and he was off for almost a year so clearly something isnt right. Lady Macduff is likely to make the running and it is possible that Bling King will be prominent as well. Shadowtime usually likes to be held up but he can track the pace as well. So if there is no pace I would expect him to be more prominent than usual. Whichever way this pans out, this is a very good opportunity for Shadowtime to further enhance his record round here.
 
ATHLETIC 3.50 YARMOUTH

Athletic is back in the care of Andrew Reid though he has never left his ownership. Since John Jenkins applied the visor he has had four seconds, a win and a fifth place from just six races. He has run in three handicaps over 7 furlongs and has placed in all three with one win. He presented some problems last time out when odds on by carrying his head high and refusing to go through with his effort when second to Marys Pet. That horse has franked the form by finishing second off 6lbs higher. Before that Athletic had shown no signs of relcalcitrant behaviour and had beaten Greek Islands quite impressively returning a speed figure of 63. He races off a mark of 55 here and with top apprentice Robert Tart taking off another 5lbs, he is very well in.

Johnnie Skull will be all the rage following his win here last time. He was afforded a soft lead that day and he won't get his own way up front with Perfect Chi and Sairaam in the field. He has a poor record when carrying 9-4 or more, 0-19.

Hamble makes his debut for Marco Botti. Botti has a decent record with horses he acquires from other yards. His record on their debut run for him reads 14-65. However, his record with horses returning in a handicap after a break of 150 days or more reads,0-19.
Hamble has been running in Italy without much success.

Khajaaly is a 13 race maiden on turf but all three of his wins have come over 7f on the AW. He is probaly a stone better on the sand. He is 0-7 n a straight course. He was third over this course and distance last time keeping on at the one pace. He is entitled to run his race but Julia Feilden is 0-22 in 7f handicaps here.

Katys Secret is 0-7 when returning to the track after a break of 60 days or more. She is 0-6 over 7f. However, she has two wins and a second in three races at the track over 6f.

Spin Again has conditions to suit but his record of 1-30 when returning to the track after a break of a fortnight or more is off putting. He is 1lb better off with Khajaaly for a 3l beating by that horse last time. John Ryan is on a losing run of 26 stretching back to March and is 5-77 in handicaps at Yarmouth.

Norse Song is a 5 race maiden. She is by Norse Dancer so she should have her ideal conditions today. David Elsworth is 2-38 in handicaps at Yarmouth. He fares a little better with horses making their debut in a turf handicap 3-23. Norse Song will have to show improvement from what she has shown so far but that isn't impossible.

Perfect Chi is 2-3 at Yarmouth but 0-10 on good to firm. He will help make the pace. He is 0-19 in fields of 12 or more.

Pink Lips, Coach Montana, Sairaam and Give Us A Belle make the field up to 12 runners.

Conclusion; With pace a key factor here, Johnnie Skull is likely to be taken on for the lead. He still looks the main danger to Athletic who has been found an excellent opportunity. He has the look of a very well handicapped horse. He should get plenty of cover and he should pick the leaders off. He is a banker to reach the frame and given luck in running, he should win this off this mark.

OWEN GLENDOWER 6.55 EXETER

Nicky Henderson is 3-5 in handicap chases at Exeter which improves to 3-3 when in the first three of the betting.
Owen Glendower's record when returning to the track after a break of 120 days or more reads;112. He is 2-3 in single figure fields.
Owen Glendower has a piece of form the rest of these only dream about. He was third to Hunt Ball at the 2012 festival beaten 10ls. That was off a mark 1lb higher than today.

Sew On Target looks his main rival. He has ground and distance form but he is 0-5 going right handed and 0-4 in class 3. he usually needs a break of a month or more between races as he is 0-10 when returning any quicker.

Pure Faith was well beaten by Kings Grey the other day and off the same mark, he may well struggle again. He looks on the downgrade now though he does have conditions to suit.

Current Event is 7lbs higher than his last winning mark and this is tougher than that race, AvOR 133 to 127. He is unraced on ground as quick as this and being a son of Muhtathir he is not certain to like it. However, he loves small fields 5-7 and runs well after a break 3-8.Paul Nicholls is 6-41 in handicap chases at Exeter and it is 30 months since he saddled a winner here though to be fair he has only sent six horses.

You need a calculator to add up the total amount of lengths West With The Wind has been beaten in his last four races. He is now 19lbs lower than he was a year ago. All his wins have been over 16-17f and he has only run this far twice, unplaced both times.The ground and field size are perfect for him but it is a leap of faith to expect him to return to somewhere near his best.

Conclusion; Current Event should run well but his mark should find him out. This is the time to catch Owen Glendower and the fact he is 1lb lower than when third to Hunt Ball makes him worthy of investment here as there are major doubts about the others.
 
I think a trip back to beach for Athletic is needed.

CHESTER CUP 2.45 CHESTER

Some strong trends in this race that narrow the field considerably.
12 of the last 15 winners carried 8-11 or more to victory. 1-15 had an official rating of 104 or more.

An emerging trend is that 5-7 winners had run over hurdles in the same calendar year.

Those trends alone leave Tominator, Softsong and Investissement.

The key trend is that 9 horses that had run in the Nortumberland Plate before have turned up here with 5 winning and 2 placing.

Tominator and Investissement both run in the 2011 Northumberland Plate.

Investissement comes rom the Pipe yard who won this with Mamlook in 2010.
Tominator would be a fitting winner for his late former trainer Reg Hollinshead.
 
LILY AGNES STAKES 1.45 CHESTER

In the last 16 runnings of this event only one horse has won drawn wider than stall 5.
Of the 52 runners that have been berthed in stalls 6 or higher only six have reached the frame including that one winner.

15-16 winners had finished in the first four on their previous run. Ten had won.

That leaves three horses, Smugglers Gold, Lilo Lil and Mselle.

15-16 winners came from the first four in the betting.

Selections; Mselle and Smugglers Gold.
 
ACCESSALLAREAS 6.35 SOUTHWELL

By the betting only four arrive here with any sort of chance and Accessallareas looks the strongest of the four. He is well handicapped on his win over 21.5 furlongs at Taunton, he was clear at 16 furlongs, and his trainer is in sublime form with a couple of recent winners under rules and a hat trick at Brampton Bryan at the end of April.
Accessallareas had two previous winners well beaten at Taunton and he has conditions to suit. Will Kennedy has just the one ride tonight even though the yard have two runners at the meeting.

The main danger appears to be Mount Welcome who won at Worcester last week. However, he is 0-3 in single figure fields and 0-8 when carrying 11-0 or more in a handicap.

Youm Jamil won as a 3yo for Brian Meehan and that was the last time he tasted success. That win came after a break so he can run well when fresh and he run well last summer when trying a chase for the first time. He has been kept to the flat by Tony Carroll save for his last run over hurdles but with just the one win in 28 starts and is 0-15 on good/good to firm. He is plenty short enough. Tony Carroll is 2-10 in handicap chases here though those two wins and seven races were one horse.

Cocoa Key will have conditions to suit but the fact both his wins have come after a break of 60 days or more suggest he is best fresh and his record when returning inside 60 days reads 0-7. Richard Ford is without a winner in a handicap chase at Southwell since 2005 though he has only had seven runners.

Conclusion: Guns Of Love and Cocoa Key are the most likely pace setters. Accessallareas will stalk these two and then take over and the closers may well get nowhere near him.
 
Thanks Rob. Great write up and analysis. Just curious, how long does it usually take for you to analysis a race? :)
 
Hi Pika

It can take anything from 30 minutes to an hour. Generally, it is pretty easy as I am looking to eliminate runners rather than find winners initially. So if I am left with three or four with a chance of winning I can do further work on the race.
 
MANDALAY KING 6.05 HAMILTON

Mandalay King is 4-12 over 5f which improves to 4-7 in single figure fields, 2-2 with 7 runners. He has won over this course and distance and has carried 9-10 to victory before so the weight shouldn't bother him. He slept in the stalls over 6f here on Sunday yet still run to his mark and he has the assistance of a decent apprentice today taking off 5lbs. He won on his second appearance last season and now is 10lbs lower than that mark.


Dartrix has run twice this season but her speed figures of 45 and 46 don't set the pulse racing. She has improved for the application of a hood and the form of her Newcastle win looks quite strong with the second winning three times and the fourth also winning.The second, Chosen One, turned the tables on 6lbs better terms at Catterick.
Dartrix has conditions to suit but she is a hold up horse and this may well not be run to suit.

Weetentherty is sure to need this as he has never placed in five races when returning to the track after a break of 90 days or more. He is 0-21 in single figure fields.

Lord Buffhead is 0-8 when returning to the track inside 7 days. He won over course and distance last September on heavy ground off this mark. Though he has won on good to soft, he needs deep conditions to show his best.

Wicked Wilma finished just behind Lord Buffhead on Sunday over this course and distance and she has a reasonable track record, 3-13 over C-D.
However, she is trained by Alan Berry who has had 4 winners from his last 100 runners. She could well win this off 54, last winning mark 68, but it is nearly two years and 22 races since she tasted victory.

Rock Canyon is 0-5 when returning after a break of 30 days or more and 0-6 in fields of 7 or less runners. Both his wins were here off higher marks. Linda Peratt's record with horses on their seasonal debut at Hamilton reads 1-53.

Bondi Beach Boy may well lead as there is no recognised front runner in the field. However, he has shown nothing in three races and comes from a yard not noted for flat winners, certainly on their first appearance of the season, 0-5.

Conclusion; There is no guaranteed pace here so that will not suit the closers, in particular Dartrix who has to have something to aim at. However, Mandalay King isn't a closer, he is just always slow away. He takes a while to get up to full speed and usually that is all too late. The hill at Hamilton brings out the best of him and his relentless late gallop should enable him to collect.
 
EASTWARD HO 3.05 MUSSELBURGH

Eastward Ho needed his run last week at Pontefract as he did last season. He then went on to finish second and win two off marks of 62 and 67. The handicapper had his say after that and he is back off 67 today with a very good 3lbs claimer aboard. He has conditions to suit and doesn’t have any alarming negatives in his profile. Three of his four wins have come when returning to the track inside a fortnight.

Copperwood is the main danger and he is well handicapped, 5lbs lower than his win at Chester last year. However, he has a couple of negatives in his profile that mean he can be taken on. He is 1-15 when returning to the track inside 7 days and this is his fifteenth run as a 8yo and he is yet to trouble the judge. I don’t think he can improve and though Franny Norton is 2-4 on him, he has to be passed over.

Rex Romanorum is 0-3, never placed. When returning after a break of 90 days or more and hasn’t placed in two races going right handed. This horse was Patrick Holmes last winner on the flat back in July of last year and 32 have lost since. He won his sole race on soft ground and is 0-3 on good to firm. He is 0-4, never placed, on flat tracks.

Edas is 0-7 when returning to the track after a break of 120 days or more. He is 0-10 in fields of 7 or less runners. The yard doesn’t have many runners and only 5 have won out of their last 100 runners and 1-15 at Musselburgh.

Staff Sergeant has had a couple of runs for Iain Jardine over hurdles without doing anything. He has a good record when returning to the track after a break of 120 days or more, 2-4. Graham Lee is booked, he’s won on the horse before. A year ago he made all over 9 furlongs here off 77 and off 70 today he should be on the premises. He is 1-15 on good or slower ground but 0-7 when carrying 9-6 or more.

Linda Perratt saddles two, Silver Rime and Royal Straight. Silver Rime has never placed in five races here and is 1-20 over 8 furlongs. He is 0-5, never placed in fields of 7 or less. Royal Straight won a handicap at Ayr off 4lbs higher last summer but four of his six wins have come over 10 furlongs and he is 0-9 over 8 furlongs though he has won over a half a furlong further. Linda Perratt is 3-62 in 8f handicaps at Musselburgh with her last winner in 2010.

Conclusion: In effect this is a two horse race. Copperwood will be very popular after his run at Newcastle the other day. He is on a losing run of 18 at present and at the likely odds he does not represent a good bet. Staff Sergeant may well run well off this mark but is likely to find the weight a bit taxing. There is little or no pace in the race and it will pay to be on the front end. Eastward Ho likes to stalk and he beat Anderiego in a class 4 last July off this mark. Third that day was Lockantanks. That is very strong form and Eastward Ho should be spot on after his last run at Pontefract and should take this off this mark.

APACHE GLORY 5.00 DONCASTER

Apache Glory has been transformed by the cheekpieces. She is improving at a rate of knots and the handicapper may well have not caught up with her yet. She 3-4 since she started wearing the pieces and has won her last three. Her last win looks strong form with the second winning a class 4 off 2lbs higher the sixth winning a class 5 off the same mark. Andre Atzeni is 3-5 on her and she is 4-7 over 10 furlongs and 4-8 in single figure fields. Apache Glory produced a speed figure of 76 last time which suggests she still has 6lbs in hand of her mark. She won a handicap for Richard Hannon in 2011 off 78.

Bobs Her Uncle is a 6 race maiden though she has run some decent races. Her second to Good Speech last time has been franked with that horse placing off 3lbs higher. Hanagan keeps the ride but he is 4-48 for James Bethell. Bethell is 6-77 in handicaps at Doncaster and in the last two years just two have passed the post first from 36 runners.

Dazzling Valentine has a good record racing against her own sex, 3-12. However, they were all on an artificial surface. Her overall record on turf of 1-22 isn’t inspiring though the win was at Brighton just last September. She will probably pick up a race off this mark but she is 0-9 when returning to the track inside seven days.

Curley Come Home looked a tad recalcitrant last time. She made smooth headway but didn’t go through with her effort. She is lightly raced so there should be some sort of improvement. However, she is 0-7 in class 5 her sole win coming off 63 in a class 6. Off 70 today in a better race she may well struggle. Chris Wall has had 20 runners in 2013 without tasting success though he was 2-9 in handicaps here last season.

Cosmic Halo is 0-3 when returning to the track after a break of 60 days or more and is 0-6 going left handed. Her maiden win doesn’t appear to amount to much and she is 0-3 over distances 9-11 furlongs. Cosmic Halo has a speed figure of 70 to her name from a race at Wolverhampton in December which would put her on the premises here.

Cheers For Thea is fully exposed and has conditions to suit. However, she is 1-19 when competing against her own sex. She is 2lbs better off for a length when behind Bobs Her Uncle last time and it could be argued she was given far too much to do. Tim Easterby is 20-345 in handicaps at Doncaster and is 2-60 in the last 12 months.

White Diamond is 1-23 in all flat races, the win coming in October 2010 at Navan. She is 0-7 on good to firm, 0-5 at Doncaster, 0-11 in class 5 and 0-6 in single figure fields on the flat.

Chella Thriller looks a much better horse on the sand, 3-8, as opposed to turf, 0-3 never placed. All her three wins came in class 6 and she is 0-4 in class 5. She is 0-3 off marks above 60.

Conclusion: Apache Glory appears to be to be able to multitask. She can sit way off the pace when there’s plenty and sit close to it whens there not. It has took John Stimpson a year to find the key to this filly and she must take a deal of beating today.
 
MORESTEAD 3.40 FONTWELL

The slower ground will take care of most of these. Records on good to soft/soft ground read, Princely Hero 0-27, Inner Steel 0-6, Francis Du Mesnil 0-12 and Owner Occupier 0-17 which leaves just the four to concentrate on.

Morestead is 3-7 when carrying 11-7 or more in a handicap chase and 3-5 over 20 furlongs or shorter. He has his perfect conditions today. He is 3lbs lower than his win at Warwick in November. He sports the visor today which he has won in and though he is a right monkey, he must have an excellent chance today.

Judging by his last two runs, the handicapper has had his say regarding Upton Mead though he is 2-3 when returning to the track inside 7 days.

Curragh Dancer is 8lbs lower than his last win, a three runner race here back in November 2011. He has his ideal conditions though he is 3lbs out of the handicap and his trainer has had two winners from his last 100 runners. It is 374 days since he had a winner and 88 runners have failed.

Inner Steel is a 20 race maiden, he has placed on the ground. HowevEr, he usually runs over further than this and may finds things happening too quick with this lot, if that’s possible.

Lajjadal is 0-7 over distances 19-20 furlongs and 0-10 over distances 19 furlongs +.

Conclusion: This should have been renamed the Rogues Gallery Handicap Chase. However, something has to win it and Morestead does have his ideal conditions, is well handicapped and still knows how to win.
 
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