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Statting Island

LADY LOCH 4.15 PONTEFRACT

This has been run for just five years but with six winners due to a dead heat last year. However, here are some very strong rends which may point towards the winner.

All six winners were drawn in stalls 1-6. 12 of the 15 places were filled by horses drawn 1-6.
All six winners carried 9-2 or less.
5-6winners were unplaced last time out.
5-6 winners had not won in class 2.

That leaves just two. Lady Loch from the Fahey yard who have won this race 3 times, 2007,2010 and 2011 and Warlu Way who makes his debut for Mick Easterby.
Mick Easterby maybe shrewd but his record with other trainers cast offs on their debut for him is woeful, 7-153.

Fahey saddles two here, Lady Loch and Las Verglas Star. He had a one-two the last time he saddled two runners in this race but for me Lady Loch fits the trends and the yard clearly feel she doesn't need the headgear anymore.
Fahey and Hanagan are 8-24 in handicaps at Pontefract in April, 4-10 over 10 furlongs. Hanagan has ridden two of Fahey's three winners in this race.

ACE OF SPIES 5.05 SOUTHWELL

Ace Of Spies won the 3.30 on the card last year so it is interesting he has swerved that race to have a go at the 7f contest. He won a race with a class rating of 62 last week and Conor Dore has found an even easier race, class rating 57. He won that contest with a speed figure of 49 and has figures of 53 and 61 on this surface.
He has a decent record round here over 6-7f, 6-35. However, when drawn in stalls 1-6 his record improves to 5-22 and improves again in class 6 to 4-11.
He won out of stall 8 last Tuesday and in 5 today he could well be out and gone.

Sofias Number One recorded a speed figure of 50 over a mile here last Tuesday. He is 3-10 at Southwell all over 8 furlongs and his overall record over 7f doesn't inspire confidence, 0-5. Roy Bowring is in fine form with 5 of his last 15 runners winning.

Silly Billy won round here over 6f off a mark of 50 14 months ago and has lost all 15 races since. He is still rated 55 and in the last two years he is 0-16 off marks 51-55. He is a much shorter price than he should be due to Hugh Taylor tipping him.

McConnell is an eight time winner on the track all over 8 furlongs, just ran the once over 7 furlongs finishing fourth of six. He was behind Sofias Number One last week and led at the furlong pole. He did win his last race over 7 furlongs at Kempton. You could say he is very well handicapped at present but he is regressive. If McConnell is in the mood he will be thereabouts, if he isn't he will sulk at the back. Therein lies his chance. The yard's last winner was on 23rd March and nine horses have gone off at single figure odds without troubling the judge.

Mucky Molly has won over course and distance and was a 5l second to Mataajir last time.That race had a class rating of 52 and she ran to 47. This is tougher. She has struggled off marks 50-52, 0-4. Alison Hutchinson is in form.

Conclusion; This is a dire race but the fact the Conor Dore has swerved a repeat attempt at the 3.30 for this easier contest sways the balance and Ace Of Spies is taken to follow up his win here last week.
 
Cheers Ark :)


HOWARDS LEGACY 3.20 FONTWELL

Venetia Williams has found a suitable opportunity for Howards Legacy. Pulled up at the festival it is his seond to Opening Batsman that takes the eye considering that horse went on to win the Racing Plus Chase off 140.
Venetia Williams is 5-13 in novice chases at Fontwell.

Bucks Bond is an obvious danger but he didnt get near Ballypatrick at Fakenham. He is well in with Howards Legacy on official ratings. Paul Nicholls is 13-38 in novice chases at Fontwell but Daryl Jacob who has ridden 5 of those has gone to Wincanton. Nicholls has had 5 winners from his last 7 runners in first time headgear.

Camden is the only other feasible contender in this race. He has been given time to recover from his exertions in the mud at Lingfield from which the Midlands Grand National winner finished second. Oliver Sherwood is 2-4 in novice chases at Fontwell.

Conclusion; There are doubts about all three horses, Howards Legacy, distance, Camden, jumping and Bucks Bond, class. One thing is certain, Howards Legacy is the class act here and even though this is right on the limit for the distance, most Beneficial's don't get much further than this, he is taken as he can be dropped right out and should be ble to pick them off on the finl circuit on this stiff track.

FRUITY O ROONEY 4.20 FONTWELL

Fruity O Rooney loves it here, three wins and a second from four chases at the track. His fifth to Golden Chieftain at the festival is strong form as his second at Ascot on Sunday. I am not worried about him reappearing just four days after that event as he has never been out of the first two when returning to the track inside a fortnight, three wins. Conditions are perfect for him.

SILVERBURN 4.40 LUDLOW

The last six runnings of this event have gone to the first or second fvourite with the favourite winning four of them. This years renewal looks to concern the front two in the market, the classy Silverburn and the point to point winner Forest Walker.
Silverburn is a grade 1 winner over fences and has dined at the very top table. He isn't anywhere near that class these days but he is still rated 126 and he is going to take some beating off that mark. He run well in the Foxhunters last week before falling at Bechers. James Tudor is 12-54 for Evan Williams.

Forest Walker is unbeaten in three points and makes his debut over regulation fences.
He still would have beaten Fruit Fayre at Bangor last time if that horse had stood up at the last but the fact is, it was a virtual two horse race. He run the second fastest time of the day but he did coast home after the last fence fall of his main rival. He had previously won at Cottenham by 8ls and is clearly well thought of by Philip Rowley who has a strike rate of jut under 50% this point to point season. He had six winners from seven runners on that Bangor card.

Conclusion; Forest Walker is very well thought of by Philip Rowley and the six year old could well win this. However, he faces his biggest ask of his short career taking on Silverburn. Forest Walker's main target is the Hunter Chase meeting at Cheltenham. It is significant that Evan Williams saddles Silverburn after his fall just 7 days ago as he wouldn't risk the old boy if something was amiss. He should have a touch too much much class for Forest Walker.
 
FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT 4.35 WETHERBY

David Pipe is 8-35 at Wetherby but broken down, it is his record with his chasers that catches the eye. From those 35 runners, 14 of them were chasers and 6 won. This season he has sent just 5 chasers to Wetherby and returned with 3 winners.
Franklin Roosevelt steps up slightly in grade here today but he is most progressive. He is 3-4 in blinkers and is just 2lbs higher than his win at Leicester.He will handle the quicker ground.

O GORMAN 4.45 LINGFIELD

O Gorman has knocked on more doors than a double glazing salesman but he must end his losing sequence today. Second at all the other three artificial surface venues he now tries his luck at Lingfield.
Billy Red and Bubbly Ballerina will give him something to aim at and he should have no trouble getting to them in this small field. He produced a speed figure of 68 on his seasonal debut and has a 79 in his locker from his last run last season. He shoud beat Picansort who is 16lbs higher than he started the year.

ARALDUR 5.00 CHEPSTOW

Araldur was second to Cheltenham bound Top Of The Range last time and drops back to 20 furlongs after spending the season racing over further. With six wins from 19 races there is no doubting his ability and Wayne Hutchinson is 2-4 on the gelding.
Alan King is in form with 8 winners from 56 runners in the last month, however, his record in hurdles reads 7-30.
 
KILMURVY 4.35 KEMPTON

Kilmurvy has a sound chance here. His form last time when third in the Sidney Banks looks interesting as the winner, Easter Day was made favourite for the Grade 3 Silver Cross at Aintree and finished a never nearer 7th. The second was nataani who would have won a chase but for falling at the last. However, it is his form before that that gives him a massive chance. He was beaten 25ls by Many Clouds who went onto finish second in a Grade 3. the second, Just A Par finished second to At Fishers Cross in a Grade 1 at Aintree. The third, fifth, sixth and ninth have all come out and won.
Jeremy Scott is in tip top form with 4 winners and 3 placed from 14 runners in April.
Kilmurvy has been given a nice mark of 124 and he should stay this easy 21.5f. Shantou's usually stay up to 24 furlongs. He looks a cracking each way bet.
 
BLADES BOY 3.45 BEVERLEY

Richard Fahey has won a division of this in four of the last five years and relies on just the one horse this year. They all were making their seasonal debut. He is drawn wide but Fahey is a creature of habit and the horse is sure to be well forward.
 
TROJAN SUN 3.45 FFOS LAS

Trojan Sun would have won last time but for mistakes at the third and second last fences. He has the beating of Sir Mattie as the weights from their meeting a couple of runs back means Trojan Sun is 5lbs better off for beating him 0.5l. He drops in class and this looks like a very good opportunity.
Tom Symonds is without a winner in April but he has saddled five seconds. He has only had three runners in handicap chases at Ffos Las, two seconds and a fourth.


SNOOKY 6.15 YARMOUTH

Snooky was classed as unlucky by Timeform last time after sleeping in the stalls and finishing with flourish up the Pontefract hill.The winner, Dolphin Rock has franked the form by placing off 3lbs higher in a better race.
The horse just has his fifth race for Fahey and second handicap so there should be improvement in the horse and the last five runners Fahey sent to Yarmouthto race in a handicap have returned the following figures; 12611.

Shamdarley looks the main danger on his first start for Marco Botti. Andrew Tinkler moved the horse to Botti from Dods in the winter but nothing should be read into that as Tinkler moved a lot of his horses around to freshen them up. Botti has a strike rate of 21% with horses making their debut for him when arriving from other stables and he has returned an impressive 47 points profit. However that slows rapidly with horses making their seasonal debut to 2-22 and a loss of 10 points.
 
YOU KNOW YOURSELF 3.40 KELSO

Or De Grugy loves it at Kelso. He is 5-16 in chases at the the track but that improves massively when he has a break of 60 days or more 3-4. Nick Alexander won this race last year.

You Know Yourself finished 1.75ls behind Or De Grugy round here in February and is 6lbs better off today. He was second in a better race than this at Newcastle and races off the same mark, which is his last winning mark.

Storming Gale ran well before getting tapped for toe over 20f last time at Newcastle in a much better race than this. Average OR 126 to todays 111. He is just 3lbs higher than his last win but the handicapper may have him as his record off marks 123-125 reads;6P2F. McCain and Maguire are 5-17 in handicap chases here.

Super Ally is 3-6 here in chases but has never won in this grade, 0-6. He is not a spring/summer horse as his figures in April-June read PP6P.

Captain Americo needs about 5 miles these days so this might be a little bit quick for him. He always appears to be to the fore of the betting but he is 0-11 in handicap chases. His second over 4 miles here in December off 121 would give him a chance today off 115 but he's not for me.

Flying Squad got hit with a 10lbs penalty when winning at Ayr in March and even after flopping last time, the handicapper has only dropped him 3lbs. However, his record off marks 105-108 reads 0-7.


Itzacliche has pulled up in his last three handicap chases and he still 6lbs above his mark achieved when winning his last handicap in 2011. He is 3-5 in fields of 7 or less and for a 13yo he doesn't have many miles on the clock. He will be probably having a run out to put him spot on for the Hunter Chase here that he won last year at the end of May.

Conclusion; Or De Grugy record when returning to this track after a break is eye catching. However, he has gone up 19lbs in the weights in the last 6 months. He did win off higher marks three years ago but he clearly isn't as good as that now.
You Know Yourself has the beating of Or De Grugy on their last meeting here. Sue Smith has a 25% strike in handicap chases over distances beyond 23 furlongs here, 6-24,Ryan Mania is 2-4 on them. Dropping in class from a stable in fine form You Know Yourself can lead or be held up so the race will be run to suit and local hero Mania should get himself another winner.

GREYLAMI 7.10 WINDSOR (EW)

It is three years since Greylami visited the winners enclosure but he is now with Clive Cox whose yard are in sublime form. It is five years since Greylami ran at this level. He races off a mark of 76 which is a career low mark, last winning mark 90. He was second to Sifer at Kempton in January who went onto to place in a class 2 and the third home subsequently won a class 3. Ryan Tate takes another 5lbs off and if Cox has him sweet, he will be difficult to keep out of the frame.

Hanseatic is the likely jolly. The form of hs maiden win is sound with the second, third and fourth all subsequently winning. The second home has won a handicap off 79. However, Gosden's strike rate of 18% with horses who won their maiden and then run in a handicap may not not look too bad on the surface but his horses are always overbet and those who started favourite in a handicap return figures of 20-84. 1-5 at Windsor.

Conclusion; Hanseatic may well win this but he won't carry a penny of my money. He is far too short for his achievements to date. Greylami has been around a while but he cannot be ignored off this mark and he looks banker each way material.

JACK OF DIAMONDS 7.25 LINGFIELD

Jack Of Diamonds just couldn't peg back well handicapped Monsieur Chevalier last time but the form of that race looks strong as both the third and fourth home have subsequently placed in class 2 races. He has been hiked a further 3lbs for that run but his record at Lingfield reads 2122 from just four races and he is reunited with Rob Winston W2 from two rides.

Net Whizz is fully unexposed and has a stellar combination of Moore and Noseda. In the last 12 months they have teamed up at Lingfield 7 times and collected on five occasions with the other two runners both finishing second.

Forceful Appeal is well handicapped but fully exposed. This will be tough as there are a few of these who like to lead.

Conclusion; Net Whizz could prove to be a blot on the handicap tonight but he is far too short from what he has achieved. Jack Of Diamonds will have this run to suit and he is a banker to reach the frame and given luck in running he could well win it.
 
Cheers guys, great time of year coming up :cool:

VERSE OF LOVE 3.00 LINGFIELD

Verse Of Love beat Mias Boy last time by 3ls and on identical terms today he should finish ahead of him again. He is off the same mark as last time when beaten a head and is still just 3lbs higher than his last winning mark. Dave Evans has reached for the visor again but more importantly he has booked Richard Hughes. Hughes has a superb record for Evans, 8-41 in handicaps, and his last ten rides have resulted in four wins. That improves to 4-8 when they are in the first three of the betting.

Mias Boy will be popular and has been given too much to do in his last two races. With luck in running he may well turn the tables on Verse Of Love but it is now 21 races since he tasted victory. He is 1-14 and 1-9 over 8 furlongs.

Lowther held on well from Idol Deputy the other day but this is stronger. AvOr 88 to 81 last time.He is 6lbs higher and his record in class 3 in the last two years hasn't been good; 8587. He has been in excellent form since being with Lee Carter but that form has all been in class 4 or worse.

Cruiser won at Kempton in May 2012 off a mark of 83 but that appears to be his ceiling. He has run 12 times off marks 84-85 and has never won, though he has placed a couple of times.He has run off a mark of 85 six times since his win last year and the best he achieved was a 3l third in a class 4. He is 1-16 over 8 furlongs and has never placed in three runs going left handed.

Gaul Wood is still 5lbs higher than when winning a class 4 last year. He does have conditions to suit and his third in a similar race to this on soft ground last year would give him a squeak. He was made joint favourite for the Spring Mile at Doncaster keeping on into a never dangerous seventh. He is sure to strip fitter. However, Tom Dascombe is 0-5, none placed, in class 3 handicaps here and only 1-14 in 8f handicaps.

Roserrow won his maiden well enough a year ago and then followed up with a decent second in a class 4. Lightly raced he should be open to improvement now he has been gelded. However, Andrew Balding is 4-58 in 8f handicaps here.

Conclusion; This will be tactical and as Verse Of Love may well get a soft lead, Hughes could set this up by setting soft fractions. There is slight concern about his two runs on the track but I feel the combination of no pace and Hughes means there are no excuses if he loses this.
 
MR HUDSON 6.35 EXETER

Mr Hudson is clearly fragile but his record when returning from a break of 90 days or more is nothing short of impressive.1121 from just four races. He has won round this stiff track and has won on good ground but has never raced on faster. It is rare Paul Nicholl's sends horses to Exeter to compete in handicap chases, just 5 runners in the last two years and 40 in the last ten. He has saddled just the six winners but half have placed.

Problema Tic is very well named but he has won 7 of his 16 races. He is 3-5 on right handed tracks. He fell in the Scottish National which was his second fall in four months and though he hasn't won since April of last year, he has only dropped 3lbs. Kieran Edgar takes another 7lbs off so in effect he is very well handicapped. David Pipe hasn't won a handicap chase here for three years, 0-20.

Palace Jester is the second Pipe runner and this former O Neill inmate was rated 139 over hurdles. He hasn't looked a natural in his two races over the larger obstaclesand he is 0-11 on good to soft or quicker. He is also 0-5 going right handed.

Top Smart is yet to win a handicap chase, 0-4. He has his ground today but his record over distances beyond 23 furlongs reads 0-5, and this is a stiff track. He is 0-5 in class 3 hurdles and chases but he has won after a break. However, Top Smart always makes at least one blunder and that may well be costly. Seamus Mullins is on a losing run of 26 since April 1st but he is 4-15 in handicap chases here in the last four years.

Both Mr Gardner's wins have come aftera break of 90 days or more and he is 0-5 when returning inside 60 days. His record on stiff tracks is 0-4.

Lamboro Lad is sure to need this as he is 0-5 when returning to the track after a break of 90 days or more. He looks like he is being readied for a summer campaign.

Qianshan Leader is back on his last winning mark but his record on stiff tracks is awful.Never placed in five races. Emma Lavelle has had an awful season by her standards but her record of 5-23 in handicap chases here is decent.

Sarando is 0-8 on good or faster ground but his record in handicap chases reads; FPPPF.

Conclusion; Problema Tic will be fancied in many quarters as he drops in class and is on a winnable mark. However, Mr Hudson is realtively unexposed and he could well make all here.
 
FENCING 3.00 ASCOT

This race is just nine years old yet it has been run on three courses, Kempton, Lingfield and Ascot. However,there are a couple of strong trends in this race that are irrespective of where the race was run at.

9-9 winners did not finish first or second last time.
9-9 winners came from the first four in the betting. No winner went off at bigger than 11/2.

Fencing was sixth in the 2000 Guineas last season, 3rd in the Dante, 13th in the St James Palace and 4th in the Dubai Challenge Stakes. He was probably a tad unlucky in the Challenge Stakes when getting hampered when making his run and he may well prove to be much better than listed class.

Stipulate won the Feilden Stakes last season before placing in in Group company on numerous occasions. I am not sure the step back to a mile will suit nor going round a right hand bend as he is 0-4. Both his wins have come on a straight course.

This is right on the limit for Pastoral Player. He has only ever run once over a mile. He was beaten a neck in a Group 2 over 8 furlongs but all his best form is over 6/7 furlongs.

Sovereign Debt is 0-4 in listed company or better. All his four wins have come over a straight course.
 
Cheers guys

SYNCOPATE 3.50 LINGFIELD

Syncopate has a career high mark to overcome today but his second to Idol Deputy last time looks far stronger now as that horse went on to be beaten a neck in a class 4 off 6lbs higher. Adam Kirby is back on board today, he won on him in December,and conditions are spot on for the horse. Kirby has only had four rides for Pam Sly in the last two years and he has won on two.

Mr Maynard has nothing to recommend him save for the fact he is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore. I am not convinced by Notnowcato's progeny at Lingfield, 1-15. They don't usually run well fresh neither. After a break of 90 days or more his offspring have returned the figures 6-80.
It could well be Mr Maynard has had something wrong with him but Notnowcatos are not renowed for winning at 4yo, 1-30.

If I Were A Boy is admirably consistent.However, all his four wins have come when returning to the track inside a fortnight. His record outside this time band reads 0-24.
Adam Kirby rode him last time and has switched to Syncopate. Though he carries only 9-1, 0-4 off that weight, he has never carried more than 9-0 to victory in a handicap, 24 races.

Scamperdale is fully exposed and is generally regressive these days. He won a class 6 handicap a couple of runs back but his record in class 5 in the last 12 months reads 5 races, 5 unplaced.

Tornado Force was rated in the 80s a year ago but is now with his third trainer in 12 months and looks to be regressive. He won a handicap for Jeremy Noseda back in December 2011 and since then has been beaten in six handicaps.All off higher marks. There is no doubt he is well handicapped today but he threw away a race at Southwell last time and looks like he has his own ideas. Hayley Turner who has ridden him in his last three races has opted to ride Satwa Laird.
Tornado Force is 0-6 over 10 furlongs but has won over a half furlong shorter. He is 0-4 over course and distance.

Understory won this last year off 3lbs higher and won again over course and distance in February off 67. However, he is 0-12 when returning to the track after a break of a month or more. McCarthy is 0-13 with horses in first time blinkers and 0-29 in any first time headgear.

Satwa Laird is 0-8 over distances beyond 8 furlongs and 1-8 at Lingfield. All five of his wins have come when he is clear favourite.

Conclusion; Understory looks certain to lead here and If I Were A Boy and Satwa Laird like to be right in the van as well. That should ensure a decent pace and Kirby should be able to pick these off in the straight. Mr Maynard will make the market for the selection.
 
What a great write up again Rob, only spoilt by the result. You read the race perfectly & only the tenacity of both Callan & Understory beat you well done on a fantastic effort mate.
 
Cheers taff, some you win some lose :cool:

GO NANI GO 3.50 CHEPSTOW

Go Nani Go has an excellent record over 5 furlongs in class 5 on good or faster ground, 212. His overall record in the grade reads 2-9 with a further four placed.
He produced a speed figure of 78 last time and off 72 today he still has 6lbs in hand of his mark.The winner of that race, Alpha Delta Whiskey ran well, btn 2ls, in a better race off 4lbs higher.

All of Divine Call's best form is over 6f. He has won over 5.5f before but has never run over a regulation 5f. His record on straight tracks is poor, 0-7. he can be slow away and Milton Bradley has gone 43 runners without a winner, 16 at single figure odds.It is four years since he won a 5f handicap at Chepstoe, 23 runners.(Non Runner)

Dear Maurice got outpaced last night but ran on inside the final furlong over this course and distance. He is 2-3 when returning to the track inside a week but 0-6 on a straight track. He should run well if he takes his chance.

Wooden King is sure to need this as his record when returning to the track after a break of 90 days or more reads 0-7. he is well handicapped though Malcolm Saunders is on a losing run of 30 stretching back to September.

Compton Spirit is 0-12 when returning to the track after a break of 90 days or more. She is well handicapped but it is two years since she won. She will pick up a race off this mark, but not today.

Stonecrabstomorrow is versatile regarding distance, he has won over 5f-7f. However, even though he is 2-7 after a break of 120 days or more he may well need this. He probably only has turned up here as his beloved Brighton has lost its first three meetings of the season. He did win a claimer off 73 four years ago but his last winning mark of 63 is more accurate. He races off 66 today and his record off marks 64-66 in the last two years reads 0-12.

Night Trade is well handicapped but all her wins have come when returning to the track inside a fortnight. Outside of this time frame her record reads 0-28. Five of her six wins have come over 6f-7f and she hasn't won over 5f since her 2yo days back 2009. She is 0-7 since then. (Non Runner)

Jarrow won a better race than this last summer off a 3lbs higher mark and the booking of De Sousa looks interesting as he is 1-3 for the yard. He should run well but he is likely to be involved in a pace battle with Comptonspirit.

Conclusion; With Jarrow and Comptonspirit likely to make the running this should be set up for a closer. Go Nani Go has been found a good opportunity and with the race being run to suit he should take an awful lot of beating.
 
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