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Statting Island

ROCKY REEF 2.40 BRIGHTON

Rocky Reef has a couple of pieces of form in better races than this in both his last two races. Last time he was given an awful ride when given far too much to do in a 0-85 over 6f. The second has since placed in a 0-85. Previously he was second to First Post in a 0-80 at Sandown over 8f. First Post has since won another 0-85. Rocky Reef produced form figures of 77 and 78 in those two runs and a repeat of those would see him on the premises. He races off 1lb lower and only has 1lb more physical weight to carry. He has Pat Dobbs back on board and the drop back to 7f is ideal, both wins over this distance. In fact his record over 7f on soft or heavy ground reads 2151.The fifth was in a 0-85. He is 2lbs lower than his last win a year ago.

Uncle Dermot was second in a 0-65 over a mile here last time. He didn’t have the pace to sustain his run and hung left in the final furlong. The drop back to 7f isn’t ideal as he is 0-7 and he is 0-11 in single figure fields. He is 0-8 in 0-75, never placing.

Bestfootforward stumbled and fell out of the stalls when favourite for a 0-60 last time. She had previously won a 0-60 over this course and distance off 47. She is 9lbs higher today against better opposition, yet carries the same physical weight. She is improving but she has failed on all her three attempts at this level, never placing.

Decent Fella has won over this course and distance in a 0-70 three runs back off 65 and is 8lbs higher in a better race today. He did win off marks in the 90s when with Andrew Balding but he doesn’t retain that level of ability now. Since he has been with Violet Jordan his mark dropped from 89 to 67 when he collected and she will decide off what mark he collects next. He has been favourite in four of his last five races. Cheekpieces are back on today, 0-7 never placing.

Orbison won in the first time hood on fast ground in June and he weakened very quickly when last of twelve in a 0-80 at Sandown in August. He is still 7lbs higher than his win and it has taken him a while to get over what was troubling him.

Jimmy Elder won a 0-70 off 66 and is 6lbs higher in a better race. He was a one paced last of four in a claimer last time and has never placed in three races on good to soft or slower.

Sword In The Hand’s best form is over 8f, didn’t place in both his outings over 7f. He should handle the ground and is dropping in the handicap. Stable are in form. Jarvis is 1-13 in handicaps at Brighton, the winner was in August.

Egotist has shown nothing in three races on soft or heavy ground.

Conclusion: If Bestfootforward doesn’t fluff the start there should be enough pace on with Orbison, Sword In Hand, Egotist and the keen Jimmy Elder. That should enable a closer to take the spoils. Decent Fella, Rocky Reef and Uncle Dermot should all benefit from the pace. With the negative profiles of Uncle Dermot and Decent Fella, Rocky Reef should gain a deserved success after running well in better company.
 
Hi rob i can see and agree your well reasoned case for RR.A swerve for myself on price but i hope he wins for you.
 
mlmrob said:
Lady Cecil's horse coming out has affected the market somewhat.
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Yes the fiddlers always try to have their cake and eat it when this happens.? Iberis was declared a N/r (to the public) at 9.28 am ,might be an unhappy coincidence but just mins before Lads and Corals shortened him to 11/2 thereby enabling an increased 15p instead of 10p R4 deduction.

I have often seen this happen particularly with Ladbrokes.
 
As this thread is called Statting Island, hows this for a stat.

Nigel Twiston Davies at Uttoxeter in non handicap hurdles when his horse is ridden by AP McCoy, Paddy Brennan, or Sam Twiston Davies.
They must be priced at 5/1 or less.

This is his record since 2010: 1511121111 for a profit of 17 points and a ROI of 170%

Little Pop is his representative today in the 2.30

Second to Saint Thomas who has subsequently won again carrying a penalty.
 
TOTO SKYLLACHY 5.10 PONTEFRACT

Toto Skyllachy was beaten some 14ls in a 0-90 last time and 15ls in a 0-85 the time before which could mean he has had enough for the season. However, he was beaten just 1.3lsin a 0-85 carrying 9-10 on his third last run that gives him a leading chance here. He run a cracker that day as he reared as the stalls opened and still managed to poke his head in front in the final furlong only to get mugged close home. The winner of that race Swiftly Done has come out and run a cracker in a 0-95 the other day beaten about 2ls off 5lbs higher. Six of Toto Skyllachy’s eight wins have come on a stiff track. Danny Tudhope’s record on him reads; 6124253323611039. When racing in class 4 that improves to 12221139. On a stiff track it improves again to; 12211.

Headline News is the likely jolly after winning a 0-80 last time. She is up to 0-85 and carries 2lbs more physical weight off a 10lbs higher mark. She is now 14lbs higher than her win at Leicester in a 0-75 but she is clearly thriving at present. The stable have gone 15 runners without a winner over the last 18 days and Rae Guest is 0-9 in handicaps at Pontefract.

Artful Prince has gone from 48 to 76 in the last three months. He was beaten 10ls in a 0-75 last time. He was headed at the 2f marker so the drop back to 10f will be in his favour, 3-4 over 10f. However, he is 7lbs higher than he was for his last win in class 6, he is drawn on the M62 and James Given is 1-28 in the last month. Artful Prince is yet to race in this class.

Arc Light won over course and distance in July in a 0-75 off 70 and will be of interest off 1lb higher carrying 8lbs less weight. However, he is 0-6 in 0-85 never placing.

Asgardella won her debut maiden on good to firm last year and has now gone ten races without troubling the judge. She ran ok in a 0-85 last time off 79 to suggest this might be within her range off 3lbs lower and 4lbs less physical weight. She has never placed in three races over 10f though being by Duke Of Marmalade she should stay. I’m not sure his progeny relish cut nor do they like stiff tracks, 4-96.

Musnad looks like he is having a sharpener before embarking on a novice chase campaign. He is 1-23 on the flat, the win off 71 at Musselburgh last year. Musnad is 0-8, never placing after a break off 30 days or more and is 0-4 on soft ground, never placing. He is 0-6 on a stiff track. De Sousa looks a significant booking with a 27% strike for the yard.

Life And Times is an unexposed Mark Johnston 5yo who must have had problems judging by the amount of runs he has had. He could improve for the step up to 10f but breeding suggests this distance is right on the limit of his stamina.

San Cassiano is 0-6 on good to soft or slower and 1-19 going left handed. He has raced off 80 six times this season and unplaced in them all.

Hydrant is 0-8 in 0-85.

Venutius is still finding his way at Phil Kirby’s and will improve in time. He is 0-12 on undulating tracks.

Conclusion: Silvestre De Sousa is 12-31 at Pontefract this season and he has 7 rides today. Musnad could run well under his guidance but I prefer the chance of Toto Skyllachy who is tactically adept and is a big price here considering the opposition. He won over 0.5f shorter at Carlisle in a claimer earlier in the summer so he should stay this 10f and the ground won’t bother him. He is very well handicapped and has won in this grade and he should repay each way support.
 
Some basic stats

CARRAIG ROCK 5.10 EXETER
Hughie Morrison is 4-6 in juvenile bumpers which includes 3-4 in this race.

PROMISE YOU 2.50 YARMOUTH
Saeed Bin Suroor is 4-8 with the 2yo progeny of Teofilio.

SHERSTON 3.20 YARMOUTH
In the last two years Mark Johnston has returned the following form figures in nurseries at Yarmouth; 3210114, including this race in 2011. Didn’t have a runner last year.
 
DEVILS DYKE 2.40 LUDLOW

Devils Dyke has only one eye but it doesn’t appear to hinder him. He was third to Carningli in a bumper at Ffos Las when last seen and that horse won a warm bumper at Cheltenham the other day. Evan Williams has won this race for the last two years. Devils Dyke has followed a similar pattern to Hold Court who won this last year and he went on to finish third in a Grade 3 hurdle. Sublime Talent won this on his debut for Williams in 2011.

Curzon Line is the likely jolly but he was put in his place in a maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter. That was his debut over hurdles and rated 83 on the flat he sets the standard. Ferguson run Bab Al Salam in this last year and the former Godolphin inmate was no match for the Williams horse. The dam of Curzon Line has yet to have a winner under NH rules, 0-16.
 
ANGEL FLORES 12.50 CATTERICK

Angel Flores was second to Expect last time in a time quicker than the class 4 handicap on the same card. The form looks solid as Expect had been previously beaten by Al Thakira who went on to win the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes. She is a half sister to Capitol Gain who won three times over 8f off marks in the 60s.
Fahey has saddled the second in three of the last four runnings of this race, didn't have a runner in 2010.
Angel Flores should handle the ground being by Art Connoisseur, won on soft, her dam, Emmas Princess, has had a soft ground winner and she handled cut herself.
It's not often you see a horse by a Group 1 winner and a listed class mare running at Catterick and Angel Flores could prove to be way above this lot.
 
Best of with your above rob.Last night i backed Half a billion at 8/1 on the same card.Not worth a look now as the value has gone.
 
CALAF 2.50 CATTERICK

Paul Pickard is 5-15 for Brian Ellison round here and 3-6 this season with a further two placed. Calaf’s form when a 2.3ls fourth to Area Fifty One in a 0-100 at Chester in June off a mark of 84 is the stand out form on offer here. Area Fifty One went on to run with credit in Group races. Second was Forgotten Hero who has won a 0-105. Third was Haylaman who has won a 0-90. Toto Skyllachy and Fennell Bay were behind him and they have both won races since. He is just 1lb higher than when he won at Ayr a year ago. He has won on the ground, over the distance but more importantly all four wins have come in single figure fields and three of his four wins have come in class 4. His record in single figure fields and class 4 reads 3-5.
 
mlmrob said:
CALAF 2.50 CATTERICK

Paul Pickard is 5-15 for Brian Ellison round here and 3-6 this season with a further two placed. Calaf’s form when a 2.3ls fourth to Area Fifty One in a 0-100 at Chester in June off a mark of 84 is the stand out form on offer here. Area Fifty One went on to run with credit in Group races. Second was Forgotten Hero who has won a 0-105. Third was Haylaman who has won a 0-90. Toto Skyllachy and Fennell Bay were behind him and they have both won races since. He is just 1lb higher than when he won at Ayr a year ago. He has won on the ground, over the distance but more importantly all four wins have come in single figure fields and three of his four wins have come in class 4. His record in single figure fields and class 4 reads 3-5.
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Hi Rob
Excellent analysis and a well deserved Winning selection

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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