• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Statistical Soccer

For Your Info, List of results so Far.

301963.33%£50.00Running
DateTimeBetsLeagueHomePrice1st PredResW/LStakeBank% ROI
11/12/2019:301GRMWolfsburg1.54622-12-11£2.00£51.0652.92%
12/12/2015:001EL2Port Vale1.74582-11-11£2.00£52.5162.72%
12/12/2015:301NEDCambuur1.80625-12-00£2.00£50.518.48%
12/12/2019:001NEDAjax1.6074-14-00£2.00£48.51-18.64%
13/12/2012:001EPLSouthampton2.06343-13-01£4.00£52.6622.20%
13/12/2014:301GRMAugsburg1.76333-12-21£2.00£54.1529.67%
13/12/2019:151EPLArsenal2.12732-10-10£2.00£52.1513.46%
13/12/2019:451ITYAC Milan1.51134-12-21£4.00£54.1520.76%
15/12/2017:301GRMHeidenheim1.8302-10-00£4.00£50.150.64%
16/12/2020:001EPLLiverpool1.74261-22-11£4.00£53.0510.91%
16/12/2020:001EPLWest Ham1.85342-11-11£2.00£54.7215.73%
18/12/2018:001GRMMunich 18601.67173-22-21£2.00£56.0318.85%
18/12/2019:301GRMU Berlin1.74571-22-11£4.00£58.9324.82%
18/12/2020:001SPNA Bilbao2.26852-12-00£2.00£56.9318.25%
19/12/2013:001NEDGraafschap1.70142-23-11£2.00£58.3120.76%
19/12/2015:001ECHStoke1.9372-31-00£4.00£54.319.79%
19/12/2015:151SPNBarcelona1.38293-12-21£4.00£55.8012.07%
19/12/2015:301NEDSparta2.06162-22-31£4.00£59.9519.14%
19/12/2020:001NEDUtrecht1.65522-11-11£2.00£61.2220.79%
20/12/2013:301AUSSalzburg1.68514-12-31£2.00£62.5622.42%
20/12/2017:001DMKFC Copenhagen1.69253-21-11£2.00£63.9123.98%
26/12/2015:001EL2Tranmere1.94622-10-10£2.00£61.9119.85%
27/12/2011:301ITYReggiana2.02892-10-10£2.00£59.9115.98%
27/12/2014:151EPLWest Ham2.04442-12-21£4.00£63.9921.19%
29/12/2019:451EL1Plymouth1.92112-12-31£4.00£67.5925.13%
29/12/2019:451ECHHuddersfield1.76522-22-11£2.00£69.0826.50%
30/12/2016:001SPNGranada2.20362-12-11£4.00£73.7931.30%
30/12/2020:001EPLNewcastle1.9602-20-00£2.00£71.7927.93%

I have been keeping record of Time Of First Goal as you can see. This is something that I have toyed with and keeping an eye on the potential profitability. However this would be a move away from the simplicity of the current format of Back and leave as you would need to be available to place a bet inplay or employ the services of a bot.

Another angle I eluded to was my staking plan! I use a daily percentage of bank staking strategy which over the past month increased my bank by over 100%. I will adjust the staking for the results above and post it later. You will be able to see if the adjusted staking plan will suit you.

Another thing to consider is the fact that since I started posting the Over 2.5 selections although fewer have had a markably higher strike rate than the BTTS selections. With 10/12 Over 2.5 selections winning against 9/18 BTTS selections. This may well settle and results even out over both markets but something to keep an eye on. As I've said before, over the last couple of years the strike rates have been historically more evenly balanced.

Anyway have a great day, hopefully profitable and if you have any observations or questions don't hesitate to ask.

Cheers
AC.
 
Phew....for a split second I thought they where bets :help:

What's the distinction you make for deciding whether to back for BTTS or Over 2.5 goals, and vice versa?
All matches are predicted for both teams to have a least one goal so I was wondering if it was worth playing both markets for a game.

Time of 1st goal is interesting and it is well known that the first 20 minutes of a game can be barren with regards to goals.
If I where trading the Over 2.5 on these, a bet placed on 20 minutes would be the way to go, and if there was a goal before then I would move up a level to Over 3.5 goals. That looks successful but would need to check number of goals from 1st goal to 20 minutes.
 
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retriever said:
Phew....for a split second I thought they where bets :help:

What's the distinction you make for deciding whether to back for BTTS or Over 2.5 goals, and vice versa?
All matches are predicted for both teams to have a least one goal so I was wondering if it was worth playing both markets for a game.

Time of 1st goal is interesting and it is well known that the first 20 minutes of a game can be barren with regards to goals.
If I where trading the Over 2.5 on these, a bet placed on 20 minutes would be the way to go, and if there was a goal before then I would move up a level to Over 3.5 goals. That looks successful but would need to check number of goals from 1st goal to 20 minutes.
Click to expand...
The distinction is made using a mixture of H2H and recent results. The bar for a game to have Over 2.5 is higher than for a BTTS selection.

Another angle to look at could be the CS market. If you consider the BTTS selections and backed 1-1 level stakes we have had 4 CS 1-1 results out of the 18 selections. So going forward replacing the BTTS with CS 1-1 maybe more profitable. Quickly applying an Conservative price of 7.00 for each 1-1 it doesn't take a mathematician to see it would have been profitable thus far. However this would need more data to confirm which is what I am doing.

AC.
 
I have already started to play a CS with these matches. Along with 1-1, 2-2 is perhaps more profitable. Five from 30 at around 14/1 +
3-3 is rare for matches (1%) and these picks are not selected for there 0-0 ability, so if you wanted to play the Draw here 1-1, 2-2, is the way to go.

I find it amazing that out of 30 matches, your CS prediction has only managed 2.
Must be due some!! lol....
 
I find the BTTS markets strange.
I backed in the Villarreal v Levante match at 1.77 as per your post and at HT it was 1-0 to Villarreal.
Price for YES was out to 2.2 so I reasoned that most goals come in the 2nd half, and we were half way there, so I bet again.
Now, I know that half the match ( time ) has gone, so less time for opponent to score, but I wonder if having faith in the stats can give an possible similar edge like the 'time of 1st goal' edge mentioned earlier.
 
retriever said:
I find the BTTS markets strange.
I backed in the Villarreal v Levante match at 1.77 as per your post and at HT it was 1-0 to Villarreal.
Price for YES was out to 2.2 so I reasoned that most goals come in the 2nd half, and we were half way there, so I bet again.
Now, I know that half the match ( time ) has gone, so less time for opponent to score, but I wonder if having faith in the stats can give an possible similar edge like the 'time of 1st goal' edge mentioned earlier.
Click to expand...
Yes the BTTS Market will drift out if the Favourite scores first expecting them to defend the lead and not concede. However at 0-0 the BTTS price doesn't move much in relation to the price at Kick Off in most games. We would get better Btts prices for our Over 2.5 goals selections as often there is a strong team who are expected to defend their goal and not concede.

Obviously there are many opportunities inplay using this strategy as there have only been 2 games finish 0-0. The problem with that from my point of view is it is nearly impossible to record results that can be price verified and that attracts critical posts questioning timing of bet and prices matched. Obviously anyone is more than welcome to trade in and out using the selections but the trading style, entry and exit points, stakes and therefore profit/losses are going to differ between each individual.

My aim with Statistical Soccer is to make it as Idiot Proof as possible with anyone who follows to share ideas on improvements. I like to tinker with the numbers and try and post any interesting angles I feel are worth following but at its core is the selection process which is proven.

The point you make is a good one and trusting a strategy is key. Once you trust the Strategy you can take calculated risks such as increasing your stake in the market as you did. If the strategy and your own persception of the inplay stats solidify your gut feeling then why not.

Cheers
AC
 
Oh, OK......the price wasn't showing as anything matched against it. Assuming you're using Betfair of course.....
Perhaps they only show today's numbers.......no big deal.

plymouth.png
 
retriever said:
I have already started to play a CS with these matches. Along with 1-1, 2-2 is perhaps more profitable. Five from 30 at around 14/1 +
3-3 is rare for matches (1%) and these picks are not selected for there 0-0 ability, so if you wanted to play the Draw here 1-1, 2-2, is the way to go.

I find it amazing that out of 30 matches, your CS prediction has only managed 2.
Must be due some!! lol....
Click to expand...
Its 3 Now !:happy-wavemulticolor:
 
retriever said:
Oh, OK......the price wasn't showing as anything matched against it. Assuming you're using Betfair of course.....
Perhaps they only show today's numbers.......no big deal.

View attachment 93581
Click to expand...
Strange one that ! Just checked and mine wasnt matched. I could have sworn it was taken. Oh well Ill have to wing this one. What was the price at kick off so I can keep the records straight.
 
1.73 - that's why I looked as to why the big drop.
But 1.89 would be fair for the records or 1.81 as that's where most money was matched.
 
retriever said:
1.73 - that's why I looked as to why the big drop.
But 1.89 would be fair for the records or 1.81 as that's where most money was matched.
Click to expand...
Ok Thats cool ! Ill put it in at 1.81. Just got in at half time 1.90. Seems to be a fair bit of action. Good Luck. Was 2.80 just before the goal.

Cheers
AC.
 
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I was going to wait for 1.90 from the start but chickened it and settled for 1.85
Attacks & D. Attacks are not as high as I would like to see, so I am sitting on my hands for the remainder of the match.
 
Selections for Saturday 2nd January 2021,

2/1/2113:00BTTSSPNVillarreal1.77£2.002-1+£1.462-1
2/1/2115:00Over2.5EL1Plymouth1.81£4.001-0-£4.001-2
P/L-£2.54

Bank = £67.88

Not a profitable day today! Onwards.

Post up Tomorrows this evening.

AC.
 
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