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Statistical Soccer

AcDc1965

Yearling
Hi All, I have a strategy using statistics I have found successful over the years and will be posting as they arise. The idea was born of a need for a non time consuming straight bet system that you could place your bets and get on with your life.

It concentrates on the BTTS and Ov 2.5 markets. All BTTS bets are Yes bets. Each post will advise which market to bet on for each selection with the price I am taking.

I will record at level stakes with a Starting bank of £50.00. Each BTTS selection I will stake £2.00 and each Over 2.5 selection £4.00.

My selection process is based on statistics including H2H and Total Goals.

You can expect around 15 to 20 selections per week mostly concentrated around weekends although there will be a few during the week. I analyse all European and Scandinavian Leagues that you can easily place bets on Betfair. I will be using Betfair Exchange to place all of my bets.

I know that those that trade will suggest trading out or changing the staking which is great and my experience using this strategy has meant I now use a % of bank plan but for the purposes of introducing the strategy I think a straight bet as explained above will make keeping tabs on results easier to follow.

Anyway you can follow my strategy here and any questions or comments I will be happy to answer.
 
OK so our first selection is as follows:

Grm Bund - 11/12/20 - 19:30 - Wolfsburg - BTTS - 1.54 - £2.00 Stake - CS Pred 2-1.

Good Luck!
 
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Good luck A AcDc1965 There are a few of us on here that play these markets. Good to see tabs being kept on the results.
Method laid out well. I may even follow for real from the off.....after a precursory scrutiny.
 
As a side note the C/S prediction of 2-1 for Bet 1 was correct. I have been keeping a close eye on this market as a secondary line of profit. However my data on this is thus unproven but promising.

I will post tomorrow's before 11 am.
 
Selections 12/12/20

EL2 - 15:00 - Port Vale - BTTS Yes - 1.74
NED- 15:30 - Cambuur - BTTS Yes - 1.80
NED -19:00 - Ajax - BTTS Yes - 1.60

Stake all @ £2.00.

Correct Score Predictions:
Port Vale - 2-1
Cambuur - AOHW
Ajax - AOHW

Good Luck!
 
Hi A AcDc1965
I recall somebody on this forum making the case for backing over 2.5 goals rather than btts based on the logic that you have 3-0, 4-0 etc on your side, whereas with both teams to score just had the 1-1 draw on your side.

The port vale game is 1.89 over 2.5

My own thinking then is to back the 1-1 draw which is 7.4 atm,

Having said all that i.m certainly no expert this sort of thing and maybe the maths don't work out.
 
I recall somebody on this forum making the case for backing over 2.5 goals rather than btts based on the logic that you have 3-0, 4-0 etc on your side, whereas with both teams to score just had the 1-1 draw on your side.
.... The Alternative BTTS system which I run on the same thread does just that. Although going through a rough patch at the moment it probably needs a bit of fine tuning. But initially it was catching both Over 2.50 goals and the 1-1 draws in absolute abundance. Was up to 70 odd points up at its height but sadly there has been a decline and it now reads around £30, all on paper of course which is nice to think that money is not actually being lost by anyone. ;)
 
As a side note the C/S prediction of 2-1 for Bet 1 was correct. I have been keeping a close eye on this market as a secondary line of profit. However my data on this is thus unproven but promising.
Well done A AcDc1965 I got a bit nervous at HT when I looked at the score but then when I saw the attacking stats for the game......I went in again.
Nearly played the 2-1 too at 10/1 but backed off unfortunately.
Not a great fan of BTTS, as I think it's a bit of a coin flip, but then it's probably just that I don't know the best way to research for them.

Fair point re. over 2.5 T tacker
I think one or the other for a match, but not both, as I think that's counter-intuitive.
.
 
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Just a quick note on the strategy. The Cambuur match highlights as an Over 2,5 Selection. However due to the price on that market being 1.28 I opted for the BTTS Market. Over the course of the two previous seasons my experience is the selections that qualify for over 2.5 with short prices do very well at Btts although the Win % is lower the better price more than compensates.

With regard to the C/S Predictions , I am only posting for interest but the matches tomorrow that are predicted AOHW are short priced. This would be something I would need to consider when developing a strategy around this market. My initial feelings are to only use the C/S predictions for matches that are predicted to end 2-1 / 1-2 as this has a high strike rate.

I will see how it pans out and concentrate on the basic system and look to expand to C/S if the results continue to impress.
 
.... The Alternative BTTS system which I run on the same thread does just that. Although going through a rough patch at the moment it probably needs a bit of fine tuning. But initially it was catching both Over 2.50 goals and the 1-1 draws in absolute abundance. Was up to 70 odd points up at its height but sadly there has been a decline and it now reads around £30, all on paper of course which is nice to think that money is not actually being lost by anyone. ;)
Oh sorry Delboy99 Delboy99 and i see you have just posted on that thread, the logic stuck with me but couldn't remember where i'd read it.
 
Oh sorry @
Delboy99
Delboy99 and i see you have just posted on that thread, the logic stuck with me but couldn't remember where i'd read it.
..... no problem T tacker I was just trying to revive your temporary memory loss, looks like it is completely restored now and probably as good as ever. Cheers. ;) ;)
 
.... The Alternative BTTS system which I run on the same thread does just that. Although going through a rough patch at the moment it probably needs a bit of fine tuning. But initially it was catching both Over 2.50 goals and the 1-1 draws in absolute abundance. Was up to 70 odd points up at its height but sadly there has been a decline and it now reads around £30, all on paper of course which is nice to think that money is not actually being lost by anyone. ;)
There are many plusses and minuses for using different markets and it depends on what Stats your selection process is biased to. If you look at goals scored as your main base you would be looking at % games where Over 2.5 are scored. An example would be Man City/ Burnley where City Won 5-0. Over 2.5 was short as the expectancy of Man City scoring a hatful was high. The Btts Yes was much more attractive, but if you looked at this fixture previously you could see why, Burnley had been beaten 5-0 on the last two occasions. I personally left this particular match alone as it didnt qualify using my process.

Hopefully your selections will recover and its just a dip.
 
So before i forget.....

If i was to have £35 on btts @ 1.74 ==return of £60.90

£30 over 2.5 @1.89 == returns 56.70.
£5 1-1 @ 7.4 == returns 37.00

Now that i've done this i can't remember why.
 
Hi A AcDc1965
I recall somebody on this forum making the case for backing over 2.5 goals rather than btts based on the logic that you have 3-0, 4-0 etc on your side, whereas with both teams to score just had the 1-1 draw on your side.

The port vale game is 1.89 over 2.5

My own thinking then is to back the 1-1 draw which is 7.4 atm,

Having said all that i.m certainly no expert this sort of thing and maybe the maths don't work out.
You actually have any score where both teams score and only require 2 goals minimum. My challenge when researching my strategy was how to filter out matches where both teams didnt score. This also meant taking out alot of matches where there was an obvious favourite at odds on as they were likely not to concede. My filters thus far seem to be managing to avoid games where a team doesnt concede. Lets hope that trend continues.

This Month so far I have had 22 selections- 18 Winners - Average Price 1.78
 
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