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    AR

Standard Times

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Here's where I'm at now. I've devised a script that will pick any given date and run off all the races for that day with forecast speed ratings and confidence. This works over history, so when you hover over "view" it gives you details of the last 6 runs and ratings, and offers a likely score and range. Of course, I've picked a winning example from a very profitable day for the top rated ones.

If anyone can tell me how to upload a HTML file to the site I can present this fully, so you can also hover over it as well. It is lining up beautifully, I think I'd just like to add the cloth number for the horse and then can begin to develop the predictive qualities further.
 
The figures are far better at telling you what has happened before than they are at what might happen.

A quick rough backtest suggests around 21% win rate for the top rated LTO across many years, and to be honest, I'd rather not put suggested figures up for future sharing until I personally believe there might be some credibility in what they offer. However, I will keep working away at it. If I can get nearer to 25/26%, then perhaps.
 
AustinDillon75 said:
Help yourselves to the attached. This is a complete year-by-year top 20 of flat and all weather performances since 1997. Personally, I think it is pretty much there, all the top names figure as you'd expect, we've now corrected every bit of noise and dumb, illogical, impossible performances.

If you want me to offer a figure for any horse that's run since that date, and those for it's opponents, I can now deliver it.

If you've other ideas on how we can get useful output with our figures, I'm happy to share and can also as it's a standard times thread, I can also share the standard times that have supported these figures. I feel I now need to wrap this in cotton wool. If I say so myself, it's a thing of beauty.

This can be updated and run daily now, with all the parameters in place. I'll come back with the all weather stuff in a bit but I want the outputs to now acknowledge both flat and all weather form.
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I wanted to ask you AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 as I know you test everything , when you completed this exercise on standard times and speed ratings using the python coding , did you find speed ratings worthwhile and an aide to more profitable betting for U.K. racing. Been looking at doing it all again myself, don’t have your coding skills, lots of work, did you find it useful in the end? I have my doubts that analysis from overall times without sectionals can be enough of an edge, what is your views on this ?
 
Outlander said:
I wanted to ask you AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 as I know you test everything , when you completed this exercise on standard times and speed ratings using the python coding , did you find speed ratings worthwhile and an aide to more profitable betting for U.K. racing. Been looking at doing it all again myself, don’t have your coding skills, lots of work, did you find it useful in the end? I have my doubts that analysis from overall times without sectionals can be enough of an edge, what is your views on this ?
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I've well and truly moved on from all that now and its either binned or in folders I've not touched for months. I have even binned other stuff I've been working on between now and when I was posting all that.

No, not profitable at all and nowhere near enough of an edge, as you'd expect for 21%. I'm currently developing and building on stuff I was profiting on in May but which was becoming stagnant. I'm also tailoring it to try and find place horses and better value bets. When its good enough to post up I'll share it.
 
AustinDillon75 said:
I've well and truly moved on from all that now and its either binned or in folders I've not touched for months. I have even binned other stuff I've been working on between now and when I was posting all that.

No, not profitable at all and nowhere near enough of an edge, as you'd expect for 21%. I'm currently developing and building on stuff I was profiting on in May but which was becoming stagnant. I'm also tailoring it to try and find place horses and better value bets. When its good enough to post up I'll share it.
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AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 , I think it's a shame you didn't continue with this thread.
 
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