• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Standard Times

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Here's where I'm at now. I've devised a script that will pick any given date and run off all the races for that day with forecast speed ratings and confidence. This works over history, so when you hover over "view" it gives you details of the last 6 runs and ratings, and offers a likely score and range. Of course, I've picked a winning example from a very profitable day for the top rated ones.

If anyone can tell me how to upload a HTML file to the site I can present this fully, so you can also hover over it as well. It is lining up beautifully, I think I'd just like to add the cloth number for the horse and then can begin to develop the predictive qualities further.
 
The figures are far better at telling you what has happened before than they are at what might happen.

A quick rough backtest suggests around 21% win rate for the top rated LTO across many years, and to be honest, I'd rather not put suggested figures up for future sharing until I personally believe there might be some credibility in what they offer. However, I will keep working away at it. If I can get nearer to 25/26%, then perhaps.
 
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