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Stable Tours

Ben Pauling stable tour

From a betting/modelling perspective, Ben Pauling's comments can be split into three tiers: proven high-class performers, handicap/chasing improvers, and dark horses/unexposed types.

Strongest Positive Signals​

1. Meetmebythesea ⭐​

Trainer tone: Extremely bullish
  • Cheltenham Festival (Jack Richards) winner.
  • "Very exciting going forward."
  • "All systems go for the Paddy Power."
  • Hopes he can develop into a Graded horse.
  • Described as easy-going and a natural jumper.
Model note: Probably the most immediately actionable horse in the yard. Already achieved a high level (OR 151) and Pauling clearly believes more improvement remains.

2. Mambonumberfive ⭐​

Trainer tone: Star performer
  • Injury excuse for disappointing end to season.
  • "I'd love to think he could be a proper horse this season."
  • "He's huge and only going to get better."
Model note: One of the strongest "could improve beyond current mark" comments in the tour. Current OR 146 may underestimate ceiling.

3. Handstands ⭐​

Trainer tone: Back to best
  • Excellent Charlie Hall comeback.
  • Going to the Betfair Chase.
  • "We haven't seen him like this in a long time."
  • "Quite an attractive prospect."
Model note: Already established. Less handicapping value but looks capable of competing in major Grade 1/2 staying chases again.

4. Vanderpoel ⭐​

Trainer tone: Very strong
  • Ascot return win impressed.
  • "He's a dude."
  • "Could very easily be a Graded horse."
Model note: One of the more obvious second-season chaser improvers.

Novice Chasers to Follow​

Dig Deep​

  • Trainer repeatedly calls him talented.
  • "Chasing is his forte."
  • Compared indirectly to The Jukebox Kid progression route.
Positive: Looks built for fences.

Kalkbrenner​

  • "I love him."
  • Brilliant jumper.
  • Could be well handicapped.
Positive: Strong novice handicap chase profile.

Taurus Bay​

  • "Proper warrior."
  • "He could be really good."
Positive: One of the more enthusiastic novice-chase comments.

Merry Away​

  • "Probably one of our best novices on paper."
  • Expected to be top-class over fences.
Positive: Very interesting long-term staying novice.

Kicour La​

  • Natural chaser.
  • Wind operation.
  • Expected to improve markedly over fences.

Fiercely Proud​

  • Going novice chasing.
  • Fast and accurate jumper.
  • Wind tweak.
Positive: Potentially well-treated if taking to fences.

Handicap Chase Types​

Bad​

  • Trainer admits he's unreliable.
  • Still says he has loads of ability.
  • Wind operation completed.
  • Paddy Power Gold Cup mentioned.
Model note: Dangerous in major handicaps when conditions suit.

The Jukebox Kid​

  • Coral Gold Cup primary target.
  • Trainer even mentions Grand National possibilities.
  • Brilliant jumper.
Model note: Serious staying handicap chaser.

Leader In The Park​

  • Peter O'Sullevan Chase major target.
  • Trainer believes current mark is workable.

Four Springs​

  • Brilliant jumper.
  • Wants further than 2m.
  • Could improve over 2m4f-2m5f.

Hurdlers Worth Noting​

Diva Luna​

  • Trainer very frustrated by interrupted campaign.
  • Thinks she can take on male opposition.
  • "Very talented."
  • "One I'm looking forward to."
Positive: Perhaps the most interesting mare in the yard.

Mondoui'boy​

  • Albert Bartlett run highly regarded by trainer.
  • Dropping back in trip.
  • Direct route into a Graded novice hurdle.

Hornica​

  • Wind operation viewed positively.
  • Trainer insists ability is there.
  • Main issue is temperament.

Best Unexposed / Dark Horses​

Baron Du Brizais​

Official Dark Horse
  • Only one run.
  • Bumper form already working out.
  • Trainer: "Lovely sort."

Mourne Crystal​

Tracker selection
  • Well regarded.
  • Will improve significantly from Ffos Las debut.

Smithytown​

Tracker selection
  • Massive, classy point recruit.
  • Trainer clearly excited.

My Ratings From the Stable Tour​

RankHorseStable-Tour Score
1Meetmebythesea10/10
2Mambonumberfive9.5/10
3Vanderpoel9/10
4Handstands9/10
5Merry Away8.5/10
6Taurus Bay8.5/10
7Dig Deep8.5/10
8Kalkbrenner8.5/10
9Diva Luna8/10
10The Jukebox Kid8/10

Best Betting Angles​

Immediate (next 1-2 runs)
  • Meetmebythesea
  • Handstands
  • Vanderpoel
  • Diva Luna
Potentially ahead of the handicapper
  • Dig Deep
  • Kalkbrenner
  • Taurus Bay
  • Kicour La
  • Fiercely Proud
Longer-term notebook horses
  • Merry Away
  • Baron Du Brizais
  • Mourne Crystal
  • Smithytown
For modelling purposes using your ratings-based approach, Meetmebythesea, Mambonumberfive, Vanderpoel, Dig Deep and Kalkbrenner are the five horses whose trainer comments imply the greatest probability of outperforming their current published ratings during the season.
 
Joe Tizzard stable tour

From a racing/modeling perspective, I'd rank the Joe Tizzard stable tour mentions into Star Quality, Dark Horses, and Handicap/solid performers based on the strength of the trainer's comments, existing ratings, and implied ceiling.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Elite / Grade 1 Potential​

Alexei​

  • OR 158, RPR 160
  • Trainer says: "I don't think he needs to improve massively to be right in the shake-up" for the Champion Hurdle picture.
  • "I'd be disappointed if he couldn't win one of the Champion Hurdle trials."
  • Already has proven Grade 1 form.
Star Rating: 9.5/10
  • Genuine Champion Hurdle contender.
  • Highest-achievement horse in the yard.

Fairy Park​

The strongest young-horse quote in the entire piece.
Key phrases:
  • "Very talented"
  • "The real deal"
  • "Bought privately and wasn't cheap"
  • "Hopefully she can take us to Cheltenham"
Trainer enthusiasm is off the scale.
Star Rating: 9/10
  • Potential top-class mares' novice.
  • Probably the most exciting unexposed horse in the stable.

⭐⭐⭐⭐ Future Graded Performers​

Spanish Stroll​

Named as Tizzard's Dark Horse.
Comments:
  • Had to mature physically.
  • Won novice hurdle nicely.
  • "Could just keep improving."
Star Rating: 8/10
  • Exactly the profile of an improving second-season novice.
  • One for handicaps before potentially moving into graded company.

Mask Of Zorro​

  • Four-timer over hurdles.
  • Immediate winning chase debut.
  • Trainer: "Going to be a better chaser."
Star Rating: 8/10
  • Could rise significantly over fences.
  • Interesting novice-chase project.

Hartington​

Trainer comment:
  • "Lovely type to go chasing."
  • "Improving with each season."
Star Rating: 8/10
  • Chasing could unlock another 10-15 lb.

Kripticjim​

  • Won three novice hurdles.
  • Trainer keen on chasing switch.
  • Already mentioned as a Brown Advisory outsider.
Star Rating: 7.5/10
  • Not flashy but appeals as a staying novice chaser.

⭐⭐⭐ Strong Tracker Horses​

Etna Bianco​

Actually selected by Tizzard for his tracker horses.
Reasons:
  • Stronger physically.
  • Schools well.
  • Novice handicap chase target.
Star Rating: 7.5/10

The Walk​

Interesting quote:
"I love him."
Click to expand...
Trainers do not often say this casually.
Star Rating: 7.5/10
  • Long-term staying chaser type.
  • Probably better next season.

Tennessee Tango​

  • Big wind-op angle.
  • Strong Welsh Champion Hurdle run.
  • Greatwood entry.
Star Rating: 7.5/10
  • Well handicapped if continuing improvement.

Bob Bishop​

  • Missed season through injury.
  • Trainer calls him "an exciting novice hurdler."
Star Rating: 7/10
  • Unknown quantity but potential.

⭐⭐ High-Class Existing Horses But Limited Improvement Left​

JPR One​

  • Outstanding horse.
  • Already OR 161.
  • Trainer admits he tends to fall just short of Grade 1 level.
Ability Rating: 9/10Improvement Rating: 3/10

The Changing Man​

  • Major handicap chase contender.
  • Grand National mention.
Star Rating: 7/10

Rock My Way​

  • Strong staying handicapper.
  • Grand National aspirations.
Star Rating: 7/10

🎯 If I Were Building a Tracker​

Tier 1 (Must Follow)​

  1. Fairy Park
  2. Alexei
  3. Spanish Stroll
  4. Mask Of Zorro
  5. Hartington

Tier 2 (Value/Improvers)​

  1. Etna Bianco
  2. Kripticjim
  3. The Walk
  4. Tennessee Tango
  5. Bob Bishop

Tier 3 (Handicap Targets)​

  1. The Changing Man
  2. Rock My Way
  3. Western Knight
  4. U Cant Be Serious
  5. First Confession

Most Bullish Trainer Quotes​

  1. Fairy Park - "the real deal"
  2. Alexei - Champion Hurdle trial horse
  3. Spanish Stroll - named dark horse
  4. Hartington - ideal chasing type
  5. Mask Of Zorro - better chaser than hurdler
  6. Etna Bianco - official tracker selection
​
Best betting angle from the entire article: Fairy Park. The language used ("real deal", "very talented", Cheltenham ambitions, expensive private purchase) is substantially stronger than the average stable-tour comment and is exactly the type of quote that often precedes a mare progressing into graded novice company.
 
Just wondering if anybody has ever done any modelling on past trainers "stable tours" or variants such as the Mark Howard stuff etc ??
Thinking maybe NLP/Sentiment type analysis ????
Or even just some manual analysis matching trainers comments to eventual outcomes ???

Being honest when punting was my day to day i never paid much attention to this sort of stuff as used to find them notoriously full of "trainerspeak" where every horse in the yard is "doing well" or "will improve", even within stuff like specifying distance requirements they always used to say "will get" say 7f for example, despite numerous results proving otherwise - also came from a school of thought that if a trainer is opening his mouth in public then he's probably not being fully truthful (being very polite there) :)

Would think that you would need to account for all sorts of bias contained within the words and measured against some normalized expectancy.

- Recency bias such as the "fresh start" illusion where those that maybe have disappointed have been allowed time and start afresh in a new campaign......thinking those "had a long break" "wintered well" type comments here are used as a magical cure for a horses limitations

- Personality bias from the trainer himself...remember Clive Brittain who seemed to think every horse with a bit of potential was a Group Class animal - so would he be classed as an "optimist" ?? Others may be classed as "realist" or "pessimist"
How would you "typecast" Aiden ???
How many "best evers" has he had btw ????

- Systemic Positive Skew - thinking of a trainer who cannot possibly be negative on a major owners recent £250000 buy at the sales - "looks very slow, unmotivated, boat-like, will maybe aim for St Leger but very possible he could end up at Aintree in a couple of years" just aint Cricket as they say in that world.
You would "expect" him or her to be waxing lyrical here.

- Deceptive Strategy - Trainers deliberately downplaying any future "handicap plot" type horses especially if from a gambling owner.

are just a few that come to mind.
 
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Did Dan Skelton mention which of his 250 horses he is going to anchor to the ground for 4 runs and then raise the anchor at a Cheltenham Festival handicap ?, did he tell you which horses he’s got from Ireland that he is going to make look like they are millipedes with gout in their next 4 runs, before taking the handbrake off all on the same day so they can have it off?
If he didn’t say anything of this nature then he didn’t tell you anything, he wouldn’t give the great unwashed the steam off his piss.
 
Outlander said:
Did Dan Skelton mention which of his 250 horses he is going to anchor to the ground for 4 runs and then raise the anchor at a Cheltenham Festival handicap ?, did he tell you which horses he’s got from Ireland that he is going to make look like they are millipedes with gout in their next 4 runs, before taking the handbrake off all on the same day so they can have it off?
If he didn’t say anything of this nature then he didn’t tell you anything, he wouldn’t give the great unwashed the steam off his piss.
Click to expand...
Skelton's rise through the game has been detrimental to both Nicholls and Henderson although it's only recently started to show...(since 2024)
And his numbers solely on this year show he's moved up to another level of performance
From 2011 to 2024 Nicholls averaged 136 wins each year ranging from a high of 174 to a low of 111 ....in 2025 he managed only 91 wins , in 2026 he's managed 57 so far.
Henderson's numbers have been on the decline since 2020 but his 2024 & 2025 totals of 74 & 75 wins were a real "low" by some margin compared to what he was. He's currently on 51 wins. Strike rate dipped for the first time in a very long time to under 20% in 2022 and confirmed that again in 2024 & 2025.

Best shown by combining all three trainers wins as "one" total each year and then calculate a %share per year
If he was a horse Skelton would be pulling away by 10 lengths .

3NH trainers UK .png
 
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Outlander said:
Did Dan Skelton mention which of his 250 horses he is going to anchor to the ground for 4 runs and then raise the anchor at a Cheltenham Festival handicap ?, did he tell you which horses he’s got from Ireland that he is going to make look like they are millipedes with gout in their next 4 runs, before taking the handbrake off all on the same day so they can have it off?
If he didn’t say anything of this nature then he didn’t tell you anything, he wouldn’t give the great unwashed the steam off his piss.
Click to expand...
Could not agree more, if i owned a horse and i liked a gamble you would have words , would you not ! However , even releasing the Handbrake is no Guarantee .....
 
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simon boardman said:
Could not agree more, if i owned a horse and i liked a gamble you would have words , would you not ! However , even releasing the Handbrake is no Guarantee .....
Click to expand...
S simon boardman
Whilst i also agree i'd also suggest testing that belief Simon by asking "what weight do the "masses" put on this kind of stuff"
"masses" = betting public or the peeps that are against you in every market
Which is why i asked has anybody done any testing on this stuff ...even manually checking past comments to actual outcomes
Don't think anybody has.

Imagine many punters of all levels (including you Simon) have read Dan Skelton's glowing report of a new Irish import that is about to go chasing for the first time in the next couple of weeks.
You look at it's past form as a hurdler and see it was trained by De Bromhead and it's form was patchy at best. Yes the horse has obvious ability to a level of around 130+ but has consistently made mistakes at it's hurdles....either getting in too close or being hesitant before take off. The horse has also never run well off a layoff.
The day comes at Warwick and this thing is in a 9 runner Novice Handicap Chase off a 175 day layoff and opens around 5-4 with a couple of "likely" types in opposition from fashionable stables including one who already has won over fences and then you remember Skelton waxing lyrical about this thing.
The question then becomes "How much of that 5-4 is down to Skelton's glowing report in his "Stable Tour" in the RP. ????"
If you truly believed that it's all bullshit surely this would be the perfect time to test that belief.
Or is the 5-4 down to Skelton's record with FT chase debutantes....or at Warwick.....or just on reputation. ????

Instead of just poo-pooing an information source as having no worth...can we look for ways to profit from it...even negatively.
 
I entirely agree with what you are saying ARAZI91 ARAZI91.

I know your example is Hyperthetical , but i would probably do something like this on HRB . These figures would suggest he likes to give his Horses a run ? No profit to be made in any of the Race Types .
1793811839143.png


1793811774746.png
 
simon boardman said:
I entirely agree with what you are saying ARAZI91 ARAZI91.

I know your example is Hyperthetical , but i would probably do something like this on HRB . These figures would suggest he likes to give his Horses a run ? No profit to be made in any of the Race Types .
View attachment 173127


View attachment 173126
Click to expand...
S simon boardman (y) (as a former user of said website and looking at the above graphic) would suggest you try a different "filter" ....your choice would maybe be ok for "Career Debutantes" but not for horses that have run before as say "hurdlers" now entering the sphere of "chasing"
try (First) "Run on NH RaceType" (hope i'm remembering that correctly) and you'll get a different picture ........Skelton should be over 30% combined in Non Hcap Novice/Beginner Chases and around 21.5% combined for both handicap/novice handicap chase debutantes.
 
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