Stable Tours

[pinemarten]

Couldn't agree more TheBluesBrother,

Regards,

 

[TheBluesBrother]

Ben Pauling stable tour

From a betting/modelling perspective, Ben Pauling's comments can be split into three tiers: proven high-class performers, handicap/chasing improvers, and dark horses/unexposed types.

Strongest Positive Signals​

1. Meetmebythesea ​

Trainer tone: Extremely bullish

• Cheltenham Festival (Jack Richards) winner.
• "Very exciting going forward."
• "All systems go for the Paddy Power."
• Hopes he can develop into a Graded horse.
• Described as easy-going and a natural jumper.

Model note: Probably the most immediately actionable horse in the yard. Already achieved a high level (OR 151) and Pauling clearly believes more improvement remains.

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2. Mambonumberfive ​

Trainer tone: Star performer

• Injury excuse for disappointing end to season.
• "I'd love to think he could be a proper horse this season."
• "He's huge and only going to get better."

Model note: One of the strongest "could improve beyond current mark" comments in the tour. Current OR 146 may underestimate ceiling.

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3. Handstands ​

Trainer tone: Back to best

• Excellent Charlie Hall comeback.
• Going to the Betfair Chase.
• "We haven't seen him like this in a long time."
• "Quite an attractive prospect."

Model note: Already established. Less handicapping value but looks capable of competing in major Grade 1/2 staying chases again.

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4. Vanderpoel ​

Trainer tone: Very strong

• Ascot return win impressed.
• "He's a dude."
• "Could very easily be a Graded horse."

Model note: One of the more obvious second-season chaser improvers.

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Novice Chasers to Follow​

Dig Deep​

• Trainer repeatedly calls him talented.
• "Chasing is his forte."
• Compared indirectly to The Jukebox Kid progression route.

Positive: Looks built for fences.

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Kalkbrenner​

• "I love him."
• Brilliant jumper.
• Could be well handicapped.

Positive: Strong novice handicap chase profile.

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Taurus Bay​

• "Proper warrior."
• "He could be really good."

Positive: One of the more enthusiastic novice-chase comments.

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Merry Away​

• "Probably one of our best novices on paper."
• Expected to be top-class over fences.

Positive: Very interesting long-term staying novice.

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Kicour La​

• Natural chaser.
• Wind operation.
• Expected to improve markedly over fences.

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Fiercely Proud​

• Going novice chasing.
• Fast and accurate jumper.
• Wind tweak.

Positive: Potentially well-treated if taking to fences.

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Handicap Chase Types​

Bad​

• Trainer admits he's unreliable.
• Still says he has loads of ability.
• Wind operation completed.
• Paddy Power Gold Cup mentioned.

Model note: Dangerous in major handicaps when conditions suit.

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The Jukebox Kid​

• Coral Gold Cup primary target.
• Trainer even mentions Grand National possibilities.
• Brilliant jumper.

Model note: Serious staying handicap chaser.

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Leader In The Park​

• Peter O'Sullevan Chase major target.
• Trainer believes current mark is workable.

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Four Springs​

• Brilliant jumper.
• Wants further than 2m.
• Could improve over 2m4f-2m5f.

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Hurdlers Worth Noting​

Diva Luna​

• Trainer very frustrated by interrupted campaign.
• Thinks she can take on male opposition.
• "Very talented."
• "One I'm looking forward to."

Positive: Perhaps the most interesting mare in the yard.

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Mondoui'boy​

• Albert Bartlett run highly regarded by trainer.
• Dropping back in trip.
• Direct route into a Graded novice hurdle.

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Hornica​

• Wind operation viewed positively.
• Trainer insists ability is there.
• Main issue is temperament.

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Best Unexposed / Dark Horses​

Baron Du Brizais​

Official Dark Horse

• Only one run.
• Bumper form already working out.
• Trainer: "Lovely sort."

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Mourne Crystal​

Tracker selection

• Well regarded.
• Will improve significantly from Ffos Las debut.

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Smithytown​

Tracker selection

• Massive, classy point recruit.
• Trainer clearly excited.

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My Ratings From the Stable Tour​

Rank	Horse	Stable-Tour Score
1	Meetmebythesea	10/10
2	Mambonumberfive	9.5/10
3	Vanderpoel	9/10
4	Handstands	9/10
5	Merry Away	8.5/10
6	Taurus Bay	8.5/10
7	Dig Deep	8.5/10
8	Kalkbrenner	8.5/10
9	Diva Luna	8/10
10	The Jukebox Kid	8/10

Best Betting Angles​

Immediate (next 1-2 runs)

• Meetmebythesea
• Handstands
• Vanderpoel
• Diva Luna

Potentially ahead of the handicapper

• Dig Deep
• Kalkbrenner
• Taurus Bay
• Kicour La
• Fiercely Proud

Longer-term notebook horses

• Merry Away
• Baron Du Brizais
• Mourne Crystal
• Smithytown

For modelling purposes using your ratings-based approach, Meetmebythesea, Mambonumberfive, Vanderpoel, Dig Deep and Kalkbrenner are the five horses whose trainer comments imply the greatest probability of outperforming their current published ratings during the season.