Sozimple System
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
Jackform
Mare
4 months since last on here and scraping the barrel with more boring stuff as I can't seem to get going with in depth appraisals 
- must be the weather. These are my simple betting forecast selections from sunny Donny today.
Doncaster (going forecast G watered) Market odds from 11.20.
11.55 Midnight Moss 9/4, Marracudja 4/1
12.30 Tommy Cullen 4/5
1.05 Notlongtillmay 13/8, Onthefrontfoot 11/2
1.40 Armchair farmer 11/8, The Height Of Fame 5/2
2.15 Brief Times 9/4
2.45 Fine Casting 4/1, Message Personnel 13/2
3.17 Sacre Pierre 13/8, Copper beach 3/1, Glory And Honour 5/1
- must be the weather. These are my simple betting forecast selections from sunny Donny today.Doncaster (going forecast G watered) Market odds from 11.20.
11.55 Midnight Moss 9/4, Marracudja 4/1
12.30 Tommy Cullen 4/5
1.05 Notlongtillmay 13/8, Onthefrontfoot 11/2
1.40 Armchair farmer 11/8, The Height Of Fame 5/2
2.15 Brief Times 9/4
2.45 Fine Casting 4/1, Message Personnel 13/2
3.17 Sacre Pierre 13/8, Copper beach 3/1, Glory And Honour 5/1
Jackform
Mare
The Seasonal rush is over and it's sandwiches and leftovers for lunch, which is easy
. Just try some so-simple system form selections today.
Chepstow (going forecast GS some G) Market odds from 09.45. P Nicholls top track trainer with runners 12.00, 12.30, 1.05, 2.10, 2.50, 3.25, 3.55
12.00 Out Of Office 13/8
12.30 Saint Davy 9/4
1.40 Perseus Way 4/1
2.10 Just A Dime 4/1
3.55 Isaac Des Oboeux 5/4
Chepstow (going forecast GS some G) Market odds from 09.45. P Nicholls top track trainer with runners 12.00, 12.30, 1.05, 2.10, 2.50, 3.25, 3.55
12.00 Out Of Office 13/8
12.30 Saint Davy 9/4
1.40 Perseus Way 4/1
2.10 Just A Dime 4/1
3.55 Isaac Des Oboeux 5/4
Jackform
Mare
Latish again today, I seem to have been faffing about doing nothing much, although I have been out in the rain a couple of times
. Just try a few of the so-simple selections that you may be able to cull a couple of winners from.
Catterick (going forecast S some GS rain) Market odds from 10.45.
11.53 Triac 2/1
12.28 Astromachia 5/2
1.03 Happy And Fine 7/2
1.38 Event Of Sivola 5/4
2.13 Blue Hawaii 9/2
2.48 Bents Hollow 2/1
3.25 Billams Legacy 6/4
Leopardstown (going forecast S some Y rain)
1.45 Bob Clinger 10/3
2.20 Conflated 5/2
2.55 I Am Maximus 8/11
Catterick (going forecast S some GS rain) Market odds from 10.45.
11.53 Triac 2/1
12.28 Astromachia 5/2
1.03 Happy And Fine 7/2
1.38 Event Of Sivola 5/4
2.13 Blue Hawaii 9/2
2.48 Bents Hollow 2/1
3.25 Billams Legacy 6/4
Leopardstown (going forecast S some Y rain)
1.45 Bob Clinger 10/3
2.20 Conflated 5/2
2.55 I Am Maximus 8/11
Jackform
Mare
Hello again all and a belated Happy Easter 
. Over 2 years since I posted on this thread but the method is still going strong and maybe I can convince you, but perhaps not today on the AW 
.
Silly thread title as it's not simple at all really. In fact it is the most accurate, comprehensive race form rating assessment I have found following UK mainland racing since 1951 when Lester was a lad (he was 4 months older than myself).
Kempton (St to Slw with scattered showers)
7.00 Early market expected 9.45am no's indicate an open contest 3, 4, 6, 8, 9. 4yo+ extended hcap sprint.
3. Hickory 7 (11/4) 5 tips LTO 179? (CD), J Fanshawe 0% but good track trainer, up 10lb? drop 1 class, midfield draw.
6. Zero Carbon 7 (6/1) 3 tips, LTO 154? (CD) R Hughes 44%* recently, up 1lb, same class, poor draw?
My comment: Of these to I lean towards Zero Carbon with the yard in form, Although track fitness for the runners is a concern. Both reasonable sprinters.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
Already a dual C&D winner, and one who has won when fresh before, HICKORY is still open to improvement and rates an appealing option at this level, despite remaining on a career-high mark. James Fanshawe's six-year-old faced much stiffer tests last season and may well find this is an ideal starting point for his new campaign. Hodler and Zero Carbon are consistent and capable of making an impact, while Kiwano is another to note back here after a spell racing in Bahrain.
Top Tip: HICKORY (3)
Watch out for: HODLER (7)
. Over 2 years since I posted on this thread but the method is still going strong and maybe I can convince you, but perhaps not today on the AW .Silly thread title as it's not simple at all really. In fact it is the most accurate, comprehensive race form rating assessment I have found following UK mainland racing since 1951 when Lester was a lad (he was 4 months older than myself).
Kempton (St to Slw with scattered showers)
7.00 Early market expected 9.45am no's indicate an open contest 3, 4, 6, 8, 9. 4yo+ extended hcap sprint.
3. Hickory 7 (11/4) 5 tips LTO 179? (CD), J Fanshawe 0% but good track trainer, up 10lb? drop 1 class, midfield draw.
6. Zero Carbon 7 (6/1) 3 tips, LTO 154? (CD) R Hughes 44%* recently, up 1lb, same class, poor draw?
My comment: Of these to I lean towards Zero Carbon with the yard in form, Although track fitness for the runners is a concern. Both reasonable sprinters.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
Already a dual C&D winner, and one who has won when fresh before, HICKORY is still open to improvement and rates an appealing option at this level, despite remaining on a career-high mark. James Fanshawe's six-year-old faced much stiffer tests last season and may well find this is an ideal starting point for his new campaign. Hodler and Zero Carbon are consistent and capable of making an impact, while Kiwano is another to note back here after a spell racing in Bahrain.
Top Tip: HICKORY (3)
Watch out for: HODLER (7)
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Jackform
Mare
Almost Monday grade racing on a Saturday, now that's a new low isn't it? Checked my home track Uttoxeter and all are open races except for 1.40 Hawkstone 16 (11/4 at 8.45am) H Dickin 20% then Yellow Jacket 14 (11/2) D McCain 19%.
Seeking some to watch on TV these three are of most interest for me:
Kempton (St to Slw) Market odds from 9.05am.
2.40 Old Harrovian 10 (11/4), Intinso 9 (7/2)
3.15 Circuit Breaker 18 (10/3), Adwaam 8 (9/1)
4.55 AzureAngel 20 (5/2), Knebworth 16 (4/1)
Seeking some to watch on TV these three are of most interest for me:
Kempton (St to Slw) Market odds from 9.05am.
2.40 Old Harrovian 10 (11/4), Intinso 9 (7/2)
3.15 Circuit Breaker 18 (10/3), Adwaam 8 (9/1)
4.55 AzureAngel 20 (5/2), Knebworth 16 (4/1)
Jackform
Mare
Much better cards by form over the jumps on the UK mainland today and a pity about the heavy going and rain forecast generally. I looked at several in all three cards and decided on Car 2.47 a 2 mile chase so less of a slog, class 2 and a restricted race.
Carlisle (Heavy with rain) Market odds from 10.15am
2.47 Early market expected no's indicating a win restricted to these 3, 1, 6.
3. Chase A Fortune 17 (7/2) 1 tip, LTO 22, (D), C Grant 0%, up 2 class? Drop 3lb.
1. Netywell 16 (7/2) Tips 4, LTO 43? (D), L Russell 13%, up 2 class? up 6lb. Timeform 3rd
6. Travail D'Orfevre 12 (9/2) Tips 4, LTO 41 (CD), N Alexander 20%, up 2 class? Drop 18Lb*. Timeform 2nd
MY comment: On paper I prefer Travail D'Orfevre but will wait until nearer the off for any market changes.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
Now that TRAC has regained the winning thread with a taking performance at Newcastle last month, there should be plenty more to come from Micky Hammond's charge and a 7lb rise in the weights may not be enough to halt him here. Netywell arrives on a four-timer but will find life tougher off a career-high mark, while Travail D'Orfevre (second) has six lengths to make up with him from their recent clash at Ayr but the latter enjoys a huge swing in the weights with that rival today.
Top Tip: TRAC (5) (MY rating 6, 9/1 early, M Hammond 12%, drop 13lb)
Watch out for: NETYWELL (1)
Carlisle (Heavy with rain) Market odds from 10.15am
2.47 Early market expected no's indicating a win restricted to these 3, 1, 6.
3. Chase A Fortune 17 (7/2) 1 tip, LTO 22, (D), C Grant 0%, up 2 class? Drop 3lb.
1. Netywell 16 (7/2) Tips 4, LTO 43? (D), L Russell 13%, up 2 class? up 6lb. Timeform 3rd
6. Travail D'Orfevre 12 (9/2) Tips 4, LTO 41 (CD), N Alexander 20%, up 2 class? Drop 18Lb*. Timeform 2nd
MY comment: On paper I prefer Travail D'Orfevre but will wait until nearer the off for any market changes.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
Now that TRAC has regained the winning thread with a taking performance at Newcastle last month, there should be plenty more to come from Micky Hammond's charge and a 7lb rise in the weights may not be enough to halt him here. Netywell arrives on a four-timer but will find life tougher off a career-high mark, while Travail D'Orfevre (second) has six lengths to make up with him from their recent clash at Ayr but the latter enjoys a huge swing in the weights with that rival today.
Top Tip: TRAC (5) (MY rating 6, 9/1 early, M Hammond 12%, drop 13lb)
Watch out for: NETYWELL (1)
ThanksJackform !! Good day came out from your room
Lanspark was big surprise for me to be honest. Well done buddy.
I will keep knocking your door time to time
Jackform
Mare
Another wet day on the UK mainland with low-grade cards, which is not too encouraging again
.
Hereford (S and heavy in places with showers) Market odds from 8.50am.
3.30 Early market expected no's 4,1, 2, 6 indicating an open contest but with winner likely from these.
4. Jack Doyen 10 (10/3 mkt) Tips 6, LTO 13, B Case 10% recently, up 6lb, up 1 cls? (CD)
1. The Scorpion King 9 (10/3) Tips 3, LTO 22, up 5lb, up 1 cls?
2. Suprasunrise 8 (9/2) Tips 3, LTO 27, N Twiston-Davies 20%, up 9lb, up 1 cls? (D)
6. Watchoutitscookie 7 (6/1) Tips 2, LTO 15, N Hake 11%, up 9lb, up 1 cls?
MY comment: Jack Doyen looks strongest on paper but I like Suprasunrise and dutching OK at early market odds.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
Having scored with something up his sleeve over C&D two weeks ago, a 5lb rise in the handicap may not be enough to stop JACK DOYEN from completing a double. Ben Case's charge ticks plenty of the right boxes and he may have enough in the locker to dispose of fellow last-time-out winner The Scorpion King. The six-year-old should have more to come after his Fontwell chase triumph and he isn't taken lightly, with Watchoutitscookie completing the shortlist.
Top Tip: JACK DOYEN (4)
Watch out for: THE SCORPION KING (1)
Hereford (S and heavy in places with showers) Market odds from 8.50am.
3.30 Early market expected no's 4,1, 2, 6 indicating an open contest but with winner likely from these.
4. Jack Doyen 10 (10/3 mkt) Tips 6, LTO 13, B Case 10% recently, up 6lb, up 1 cls? (CD)
1. The Scorpion King 9 (10/3) Tips 3, LTO 22, up 5lb, up 1 cls?
2. Suprasunrise 8 (9/2) Tips 3, LTO 27, N Twiston-Davies 20%, up 9lb, up 1 cls? (D)
6. Watchoutitscookie 7 (6/1) Tips 2, LTO 15, N Hake 11%, up 9lb, up 1 cls?
MY comment: Jack Doyen looks strongest on paper but I like Suprasunrise and dutching OK at early market odds.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
Having scored with something up his sleeve over C&D two weeks ago, a 5lb rise in the handicap may not be enough to stop JACK DOYEN from completing a double. Ben Case's charge ticks plenty of the right boxes and he may have enough in the locker to dispose of fellow last-time-out winner The Scorpion King. The six-year-old should have more to come after his Fontwell chase triumph and he isn't taken lightly, with Watchoutitscookie completing the shortlist.
Top Tip: JACK DOYEN (4)
Watch out for: THE SCORPION KING (1)
Jackform
Mare
Should have waited until near the off yesterday and a lesson learned - I should have known
. Have to keep trying.
Market Rasen (GS some S with showers) Market odds from 9.30am.
3.00 Eraly market expected no's 4, 7, 5 indicating a win restricted to these.
4.Dibble Decker 18 (2/1) Tips 6 LTO 38, (D_), up 6lb, same cls, Tom Lacey 50% recently
7. William Cody 16 (9/4) Tips 2, LTO 33, (D) drop 7lb, up 1 cls?
5. Jet Plane 8 (9/2) Tips 4, LTO 32, (D) up 3lb, same cls, D Skelton 9%
MY comment: Dibble Decker on paper early.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
DIBBLE DECKER improved from his return to action when scoring at Wincanton before just being denied by a neck at Huntingdon. The eight-year-old doesn't appear to have reached his ceiling yet and is taken to get his head back in front on this occasion. Jet Plane bounced back at Sandown and is a player off 2lb higher, while a drop in class and the application of blinkers for the first time might see a revival from War Lord (12/1, tips 2, (D), up 14/b? drop 1 cls, J Tizzard 11%)
Top Tip: DIBBLE DECKER (4)
Watch out for: JET PLANE (5)
Market Rasen (GS some S with showers) Market odds from 9.30am.
3.00 Eraly market expected no's 4, 7, 5 indicating a win restricted to these.
4.Dibble Decker 18 (2/1) Tips 6 LTO 38, (D_), up 6lb, same cls, Tom Lacey 50% recently
7. William Cody 16 (9/4) Tips 2, LTO 33, (D) drop 7lb, up 1 cls?
5. Jet Plane 8 (9/2) Tips 4, LTO 32, (D) up 3lb, same cls, D Skelton 9%
MY comment: Dibble Decker on paper early.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above.
DIBBLE DECKER improved from his return to action when scoring at Wincanton before just being denied by a neck at Huntingdon. The eight-year-old doesn't appear to have reached his ceiling yet and is taken to get his head back in front on this occasion. Jet Plane bounced back at Sandown and is a player off 2lb higher, while a drop in class and the application of blinkers for the first time might see a revival from War Lord (12/1, tips 2, (D), up 14/b? drop 1 cls, J Tizzard 11%)
Top Tip: DIBBLE DECKER (4)
Watch out for: JET PLANE (5)
Jackform
Mare
Just passing time and I have to get the better half's tea shortly, such is my life now 
. I saw this thread again when I was faffing about searching for the J Ryder staking plan post and it's another approach to supporting short odds selections. This is just a restricted edition for the Newcastle eveving card meeting as I havn't tried it for a couple of years.
Newcastle (Standard) MKt odds from 15.30pm.
4.45 Central Command 8 (11/8), Fallacious Promise 7 (2/1)
5.20 Say What You See 12 (11/10)
5.53 The Cursor 10 (8/13), New York Minute 6 (4/1)
6.30 Ekleem (8/11)
7.02 17 (2/1), Dandy Breezer 16 (5/1)
7.33 Regency Bias 16 (6/4), The Green Man 11 (5/1), Pressure's On 7 (5/2)
8.10 Caragio 18 (2/1), Raft Up 7 (3/1)
. I saw this thread again when I was faffing about searching for the J Ryder staking plan post and it's another approach to supporting short odds selections. This is just a restricted edition for the Newcastle eveving card meeting as I havn't tried it for a couple of years.Newcastle (Standard) MKt odds from 15.30pm.
4.45 Central Command 8 (11/8), Fallacious Promise 7 (2/1)
5.20 Say What You See 12 (11/10)
5.53 The Cursor 10 (8/13), New York Minute 6 (4/1)
6.30 Ekleem (8/11)
7.02 17 (2/1), Dandy Breezer 16 (5/1)
7.33 Regency Bias 16 (6/4), The Green Man 11 (5/1), Pressure's On 7 (5/2)
8.10 Caragio 18 (2/1), Raft Up 7 (3/1)
Jackform
Mare
Uttoxeter (G watered) Mkt odds from 9.30am. Top track yard O Murphy. Top track jockey S Bowen.
1.20
Trigg 14 (6/4) H Skelton up* 8/13 won
Lexington Wood 8 (10/11) S Bowen up* non-runner
1.55
Tap Tap Shamie 16 (4/7) S Bowen up* non runner
On The Bayou 7 (5/2) H Fry yard*, B Carver up* non runner
2.35
Calimystic 20 (9/4) non runner
Joyeaux Machin 9 (9/2) H Skelton up* 2/1 won
3.10
Cher Monsieur 14 (9/4) 2/1 2nd
Tom Desjy 7 (13/8) S Bowen up* fell
4.20
Good Boy Griff 12 (4/1) S Bowen up* non runner
Coolkatie 9 (9/2) H Skelton up* also ran
4.50
Tune In A Box 15 (11/4) T Lacey yard*, S Sheppard up* non-runner
Pony Soprano 12 (7/2) H Skelton up*. 5/2 wonj
This is my home course over the sticks and I have indicated the top five yards and riders there recently as a further positive indication.
1.20
Trigg 14 (6/4) H Skelton up* 8/13 won
Lexington Wood 8 (10/11) S Bowen up* non-runner
1.55
Tap Tap Shamie 16 (4/7) S Bowen up* non runner
On The Bayou 7 (5/2) H Fry yard*, B Carver up* non runner
2.35
Calimystic 20 (9/4) non runner
Joyeaux Machin 9 (9/2) H Skelton up* 2/1 won
3.10
Cher Monsieur 14 (9/4) 2/1 2nd
Tom Desjy 7 (13/8) S Bowen up* fell
4.20
Good Boy Griff 12 (4/1) S Bowen up* non runner
Coolkatie 9 (9/2) H Skelton up* also ran
4.50
Tune In A Box 15 (11/4) T Lacey yard*, S Sheppard up* non-runner
Pony Soprano 12 (7/2) H Skelton up*. 5/2 wonj
This is my home course over the sticks and I have indicated the top five yards and riders there recently as a further positive indication.
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Jackform
Mare
I have swerved Newmarket, although I will probably check the 1,000gns see if I can find the winner. I am considering Hamilton today due to the generally small fields as this is where the value is to be found, whatever anyone else's opinion.
Hamilton (Good) Mkt odds from 9.30am. Top track yard Jim Goldie.
2.40 Square Necker 18 (10/11), Humble Spark 10 (7/1)
3.15 Conlave 18 (5/4)
3.53 Arkenstaar 10 (6/1 e.w.)
4.25 Liverpool Star 17 (6/5), Cosmic Clarets 7 (7/2)
5.35 Alpine Sierra 15 (11/8) Ji Goldie*, Monsieur Melee 11 (7/1)
1,000gns (Mkt odds from 10.45am)
3.35 Early mkt expected no's 9, 19, 16, 8, 10, 1 indicating a win restricted to these
9. Precise 20 (15/8) RL Moore up*
19. VenetianSun 15 (6/1)
8. My Highness 12 (17/2)
Hamilton (Good) Mkt odds from 9.30am. Top track yard Jim Goldie.
2.40 Square Necker 18 (10/11), Humble Spark 10 (7/1)
3.15 Conlave 18 (5/4)
3.53 Arkenstaar 10 (6/1 e.w.)
4.25 Liverpool Star 17 (6/5), Cosmic Clarets 7 (7/2)
5.35 Alpine Sierra 15 (11/8) Ji Goldie*, Monsieur Melee 11 (7/1)
1,000gns (Mkt odds from 10.45am)
3.35 Early mkt expected no's 9, 19, 16, 8, 10, 1 indicating a win restricted to these
9. Precise 20 (15/8) RL Moore up*
19. VenetianSun 15 (6/1)
8. My Highness 12 (17/2)
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